CFL Syndicate 2023
- Thread starter Hulu
- Start date
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Why is Ottawa favored in this game?
Hulu
#3DownNation
They shouldn't be. I'm just waiting to see if a 3 will pop before I take sask
Vapster
Awesome1#1
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah seems like money coming the other way. Sask and wpg easily have the biggest fanbases in the league so you often see them taking money in the final hour. Maybe time to find my best number and get on it now.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
A lot of games seem to be on the extreme ends this year, just look at lions d
They either give up 0, if playing @Teapot9 Elks, around 10 if playing the mushy middle, and 45+ vs toronto or the bombers
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Just looking at teams with scores ending in the 40s
Winnipeg 1
BC 2
sask 1
Calgary 3
Edmonton 1
Edmonton have six under 42, two over 66, no in between
Toronto 3
Montreal 2
Ottawa 1
Hamilton 3
Winnipeg 1
BC 2
sask 1
Calgary 3
Edmonton 1
Edmonton have six under 42, two over 66, no in between
Toronto 3
Montreal 2
Ottawa 1
Hamilton 3
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
what line would it take for the public to back Edmonton this week? 17, 20, 21,24, 28?
+28 sounds stupid right? Winnipeg is off a 50 point game and Edmonton's last game was 0 points.
Edm cant hold the ball on offense and the D gets tired and cant get off the field until their opponent scores.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I love me some Ottawa this week
A team coming off an Away favorite loss now a away dog and their next game line will be a favorite or a dog less than 5 points are 7-1 ATS.
Not a lot of results in the query but its solid and makes sense to me. I would eliminate this if they played Edmonton last week because being an away favorite against Edmonton is not something I value. Saskatchewan is 4-4 on the season now (last weeks Ottawa line creates an opportunistic position this week)
The other thing I really like in this game, the Total is 48.5 (according to "blankets" matchups). Games with higher total means they expect points from both sides. The more the dog scores the better the ROI. A low total on a +10 line leans to the favorite.
Kelly is going to play or be more conservative if he plays? Maybe.
+10.5 is not available but if it's a real # I will jump on.
Ottawa is at home to Montreal next week. I am using my ranking to predict that line as Ottawa being a home dog of any number less than +5 points. I just dont see Montreal being close to +7 away so I chose +4.5 or less.
If that is true than this query works well.
A and D and n:line<5 and p:L and o:ats streak=-1
Away dog that their next line will be <5 points and this dog lost its last game and their opponent only has an ats streak of -1
54-18 (75.0%)
Added to this if our dog has less than 5 wins the ATS is 37-9 (80%)
A and D and n:line<5 and p:L and o:ats streak=-1 and t:wins<5
*** This season has been difficult for queries but the early weeks are done. Books are adjusting but the teams still have to perform, or in the Argo's case last week fall apart. Toronto has elevated too much at this point but we will see as good teams are tough to bet against.
A team coming off an Away favorite loss now a away dog and their next game line will be a favorite or a dog less than 5 points are 7-1 ATS.
Not a lot of results in the query but its solid and makes sense to me. I would eliminate this if they played Edmonton last week because being an away favorite against Edmonton is not something I value. Saskatchewan is 4-4 on the season now (last weeks Ottawa line creates an opportunistic position this week)
The other thing I really like in this game, the Total is 48.5 (according to "blankets" matchups). Games with higher total means they expect points from both sides. The more the dog scores the better the ROI. A low total on a +10 line leans to the favorite.
Kelly is going to play or be more conservative if he plays? Maybe.
+10.5 is not available but if it's a real # I will jump on.
Ottawa is at home to Montreal next week. I am using my ranking to predict that line as Ottawa being a home dog of any number less than +5 points. I just dont see Montreal being close to +7 away so I chose +4.5 or less.
If that is true than this query works well.
A and D and n:line<5 and p:L and o:ats streak=-1
Away dog that their next line will be <5 points and this dog lost its last game and their opponent only has an ats streak of -1
54-18 (75.0%)
Added to this if our dog has less than 5 wins the ATS is 37-9 (80%)
A and D and n:line<5 and p:L and o:ats streak=-1 and t:wins<5
*** This season has been difficult for queries but the early weeks are done. Books are adjusting but the teams still have to perform, or in the Argo's case last week fall apart. Toronto has elevated too much at this point but we will see as good teams are tough to bet against.
Last edited:
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
A few notes about Montreal this week.
FYI and I am not so sold on Saskatchewan.
Montreal didnt wake up until the 4th Q last week only kicking a few fg's for 45 minutes. They were dont 14-3 before they woke.
The week beore that they scored 25 points in that home game against Calgary. Interesting to note in that home game: their only majoy came on an INT that was housed. All other points were 3's or one lone single. Dont be fooled this is not a good team on offense and bad offensive teams as favorites are terrible.
Will they show they are terrible again? probably, but Saskatchewan is no prize. If a team has scoring problem that makes the dog money line in pay.
At this point: Winnipeg BC not A good idea to fade.
Toronto if the back up plays and the rest of these inferior teams that are favorites are valued to me.
I am waiting for my lines to show and see line moves and consensus.
FYI and I am not so sold on Saskatchewan.
Montreal didnt wake up until the 4th Q last week only kicking a few fg's for 45 minutes. They were dont 14-3 before they woke.
The week beore that they scored 25 points in that home game against Calgary. Interesting to note in that home game: their only majoy came on an INT that was housed. All other points were 3's or one lone single. Dont be fooled this is not a good team on offense and bad offensive teams as favorites are terrible.
Will they show they are terrible again? probably, but Saskatchewan is no prize. If a team has scoring problem that makes the dog money line in pay.
At this point: Winnipeg BC not A good idea to fade.
Toronto if the back up plays and the rest of these inferior teams that are favorites are valued to me.
I am waiting for my lines to show and see line moves and consensus.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Teams is BC's spot in history dont do well but I am not ready to commit on Calgary this week.
One would think a good team like Bc would bounce back, and maybe they will but as the CFL goes, once they get cold its time to back away.
One would think a good team like Bc would bounce back, and maybe they will but as the CFL goes, once they get cold its time to back away.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Take all this with a grain of salt, this is the 2nd year in a row I am the red in the CFL.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Call me public but if EDM hits 14 I will be on them. They are not going to go 0-18 this year and although this is Winnipeg, there are a number of things lining up for the Elks.
-Off a bye week
-New OC installed over the bye week
-New starting QB in Tre Ford. He was 1-0 as a starter last year but he also got gifted 5 turnovers in that game.
I think the team could get a spark from all this and compete.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
It’s 11.5 at my book. You’re ahead of the game !
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Get right game for the BC defense. DC Ryan Phillips had steam coming out of his eyes and ears all game in the WPG shellacking. A great defense at home primed and ready should snuff out Jake Meier. Calgary has played the best 3 teams in the league 3 times this season and have managed a pathetic 3 total offensive TD. Do they even get one this week?
Some uncertainly with BC QB probably keeping the number down but didn't sound like Dane Evans injury was too serious and VAJ dressed as the emergency QB last week. I think one of them plays. Line should be -7 or -7.5 and will lay -5.5 no problem.
Some uncertainly with BC QB probably keeping the number down but didn't sound like Dane Evans injury was too serious and VAJ dressed as the emergency QB last week. I think one of them plays. Line should be -7 or -7.5 and will lay -5.5 no problem.
Hulu
#3DownNation
VAj practicing with the first team on day 1 so good bet he starts. I think I am going to join you as this line is already starting to move.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
X-factor for Calgary: Ka'deem Carey back in action. If Calgary can rush and VAJ does bad VAJ things again?
I am still not sold on VAJ.
I am still not sold on VAJ.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Calgary +6
Sask +4.5 Even if Fajardo starts he is not a hero. MTL still has problems getting 6's. Problem for me is Sask isnt that great either.
Sask +4.5 Even if Fajardo starts he is not a hero. MTL still has problems getting 6's. Problem for me is Sask isnt that great either.
Hulu
#3DownNation
You reminded me that Calgary ran a fundamentally different offence last week with more rushing and more of a short passing game for Maier. It had success so I think they stick with it this week. Makes me wonder if the under is in play in this game.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
There was a lot to like back in the glory days of Calgary. One thing they always had was a superior RB
Jon Cornish and to a lesser extent but still good was Jerome Messam.
If Carey can get int form he will provide a boost in offense and less pressure on Maier. I dont think Calgary is the old Calgary but surely will improve.
Vapster
Awesome1#1
I'm Going With My 92.5 Year Old Father Who Says...
"If You Can Get A Road Dog +10.5 Or More, Or A Home DOG @ +7.5 Or More, You Gotta Take It Son...They're All Professionals Out There. Over My Lifetime I'd Be Over 50% Winner Following This Trend. And So Can You."
The Blue Bombers are 0-2 ATS this season as double-digit favorites.
Edmonton covered as a 15-point underdog just 2 weeks ago in Winnipeg.
Edmonton Off A Bye...
EDMONTON +13.5 YEAH!
:shake:
"If You Can Get A Road Dog +10.5 Or More, Or A Home DOG @ +7.5 Or More, You Gotta Take It Son...They're All Professionals Out There. Over My Lifetime I'd Be Over 50% Winner Following This Trend. And So Can You."
The Blue Bombers are 0-2 ATS this season as double-digit favorites.
Edmonton covered as a 15-point underdog just 2 weeks ago in Winnipeg.
Edmonton Off A Bye...
EDMONTON +13.5 YEAH!
:shake:
Hulu
#3DownNation
New OC installed over the bye and a new starting QB as well. Its been pointed out that Winnipeg's 2 losses this year were against teams with mobile QBs. Tre Ford is literally the fastest QB in the league. He has WR speed. This will be an interesting matchup.
Vapster
Awesome1#1
This Is ONE Of Those Wagers IF I Lost...I'll Be O.K. With It...
I'm On The Right Side IMO...
:shake:
Hulu
#3DownNation
You know I was just thinking the same thing. They have to win at home someday right?
Vapster
Awesome1#1
Happens Once A Year In The NFL At Least! And Usually During TNF SNF MNF...
A Team With No Wins/1 Win Beats The Big Bad Favorite...
Look It Up. Catch Me Outside, How Bout Dat?!
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Wow I just clicked SSK +6
Hulu
#3DownNation
Adding a half unit to this at +5.5. Now 1.5*
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not one for playing it's due as an angle but after the scores this week, can one of these actually be a game? Lean that way, might just play this live.
