Breeders Cup 2016 11/4, 11/5 @ Santa Anita

Play2win

Play2win

Mod by Monday Morning
Here are the Breeders Cup races for Friday and Saturday. Should be a great weekend. (Post times are ET)










 
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I was injured during a routine gallop on the turf at Santa Anita today and I will be retiring as a result of my injuries.
 
Initial thoughts....

Juvenile Turf:
#11Good Samaritan was a very impressive winner in his last, piece from Drf article from 10/30 - the typically reserved Bill Mott said "he galloped like a monster this morning"
Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won this race three times since the race came in existence in 2010 and he has two chances this year with #1 Lancaster Bomber who exits three races vs stablemate Churchill who is the likely European 2YO Champion this year and comes into this race off a 2nd place finish in Group 1 off career best 101 Timeform Rating. Lancaster Bomber has never been the 1 Mile distance but is a half to Group 1 winner Excelebration who excelled going a mile...and #8 Intelligence Cross who is currently favored with European books.
A live sleeper to use underneath could be #3 Channel Maker who has improved Beyer's in each of his three career races and exits a tough trip 3rd place finish vs Good Samaritan.
 
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Dirt Mile:
I think #3 Dortmund is the most likely favorite to win this weekend, even over California Chrome. Speaking of CC, he's not running in this race so Dortmund gets major class relief. Also big time horse for course with a 6-5-1-0 record at Santa Anita.
If not Dortmund then...
#1 Vyjack who is a turf miler but also has back races on dirt going 7F and 1M that put him in the mix.
#9 Gun Runner is also within a chance

I am strongly against #7 Runhappy who only has one race this year and two turns is a huge question mark for him.
 
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Play2win said:
Initial thoughts....

Juvenile Turf:
#11Good Samaritan was a very impressive winner in his last, piece from Drf article from 10/30 - the typically reserved Bill Mott said "he galloped like a monster this morning"
Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won this race three times since the race came in existence in 2010 and he has two chances this year with #1 Lancaster Bomber who exits three races vs stablemate Churchill who is the likely European 2YO Champion this year and comes into this race off a 2nd place finish in Group 1 off career best 101 Timeform Rating. Lancaster Bomber has never been the 1 Mile distance but is a half to Group 1 winner Excelebration who excelled going a mile...and #8 Intelligence Cross who is currently favored with European books.
A live sleeper to use underneath could be #3 Channel Maker who has improved Beyer's in each of his three career races and exits a tough trip 3rd place finish vs Good Samaritan.
Click to expand...

#1 Lancaster Bomber appeared to be a rabbit for Churchill in his last couple and was 40-1 and 66-1 in his Group 1 efforts, but did show something in last battling back in the stretch after falling back to about 4th to finish 2nd, rail draw should mean he is going to the front early. #6 Big Score another improving Beyer's in all 3 races and has a win over this course at the distance, sat a little closer to a pretty hot pace (the new turf course seems to be very fast) in that effort before drawing away. #11 Good Samaritan 2 for 2 routing over the turf and showed a great closing kick in the G2 Summer at Woodbine in last, it appears there will be enough pace in here to get the setup he will need, with several in here looking like they will be battling up front.
 
This year's edition of The Juvenile Fillies Turf is wide open and looks like the best 'spread' race of the sequence for the pick 4.

American contigent:
#14 La Coronel draws a horrible post but has been great in her two turf races.
#6 Coasted will be a nice price, she was great in her turf debut and followed that up winning PG Johnson and I can discount last on yielding.
#3 New Money Honey good looking winner in last

Euro's:
#4 Spain Burg looked good winning last to improve her record to 5-4-1-0, favorite at European books, improving Timeform Ratings each race.
#1 Hydrangea ran 2nd in Group 1 mile race in last beaten by stablemate who also won race three back and two back beaten a nose vs...
#7 Intricately who is 2nd choice of the Euro's at Euro book but 2 life wins were both on soft turf.

I'm against #13 Roly Poly, poor post and has never raced past 6F
 
Lloyd Braun said:
#1 Lancaster Bomber appeared to be a rabbit for Churchill in his last couple and was 40-1 and 66-1 in his Group 1 efforts, but did show something in last battling back in the stretch after falling back to about 4th to finish 2nd, rail draw should mean he is going to the front early. #6 Big Score another improving Beyer's in all 3 races and has a win over this course at the distance, sat a little closer to a pretty hot pace (the new turf course seems to be very fast) in that effort before drawing away. #11 Good Samaritan 2 for 2 routing over the turf and showed a great closing kick in the G2 Summer at Woodbine in last, it appears there will be enough pace in here to get the setup he will need, with several in here looking like they will be battling up front.
Click to expand...
Correct about #1 being rabbit for Churchill and that is a negative. Also was it good that he came again after being passed or were others not that good possibility...maybe against now
 
Play2win said:
Dirt Mile:
I think #3 Dortmund is the most likely favorite to win this weekend, even over California Chrome. Speaking of CC, he's not running in this race so Dortmund gets major class relief.
If not Dortmund then...
#1 Vyjack who is a turf miler but also has back races on dirt going 7F and 1M that put him in the mix.
#9 Gun Runner is also within a chance

I am strongly against #7 Runhappy who only has one race this year and two turns is a huge question mark for him.
Click to expand...


Agree with your thoughts on Dortmund and Runhappy. Dortmund, gets class relief (13 starts with 8 wins, other 5 races: 3 won by Chrome 2 won by American Pharoah and he was 2nd in 4 of those races), cuts back, and should be able to sit and stalk. Runhappy, really needs a legitimate trainer, and they are using this as some sort of prep for the Pegasus in January, which is their ultimate goal. Underneath Dortmund I like Vyjack and Tamarkuz.
 
Distaff:
My most likely winners are #5 Stellar Wind and #8 Beholder
If not them....#6 Forever Unbridled

I'll be against #1 Songbird who will be facing older fillies and mares for the first time.
 
Play2win said:
Correct about #1 being rabbit for Churchill and that is a negative. Also was it good that he came again after being passed or were others not that good possibility...maybe against now
Click to expand...


Very good question and one I am not in a position to answer as who knows how good that field was, have mixed feelings, Euro's have done very well in this race historically but think he is going to get caught up in a early duel and going longer than he has before that usually doesn't bode very well.
 
Play2win said:
Distaff:
My most likely winners are #5 Stellar Wind and #8 Beholder
If not them....#6 Forever Unbridled

I'll be against #1 Songbird who will be facing older fillies and mares for the first time.
Click to expand...

I'm a big fan of Forever Unbridled. I'm singling her in pick 3s and 4s.
 
Play2win said:
Distaff:
My most likely winners are #5 Stellar Wind and #8 Beholder
If not them....#6 Forever Unbridled

I'll be against #1 Songbird who will be facing older fillies and mares for the first time.
Click to expand...

Stellar Wind gets a much better pace setup here as Beholder should be pressuring Songbird and Songbird has certainly not been pressured by the likes of Beholder, even in her current form which seems a notch below where she was earlier in the year. Will be keying Stellar Wind and Unbridled Forever and should get a decent price, as Songbird and Beholder figure to take most of the money.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Stellar Wind gets a much better pace setup here as Beholder should be pressuring Songbird and Songbird has certainly not been pressured by the likes of Beholder, even in her current form which seems a notch below where she was earlier in the year. Will be keying Stellar Wind and Unbridled Forever and should get a decent price, as Songbird and Beholder figure to take most of the money.
Click to expand...
I like this approach and will likely do the same :cheers3:
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Very good question and one I am not in a position to answer as who knows how good that field was, have mixed feelings, Euro's have done very well in this race historically but think he is going to get caught up in a early duel and going longer than he has before that usually doesn't bode very well.
Click to expand...

The Dewhurst is the top 2yo race in Europe. The 4th horse since won France's top 2yo race by 5 lengths, and the 6th horse finished second
 
What do you guys make of the Juvenile Fillies (Race 4 Sat)? The fillies that have completed two turn routes have run below par with their speed figures, with Noted and Quoted having the best Bris number. The best speed numbers are all trying two turns for the first time, with the top number by Jamyson'n Ginger having been run in the slop.

Thinking Santa Anita plays well to stretchouts with speed, so I'll probably lean on American Gal and Sweet Loretta with a look also at Noted and Quoted. Two Bafferts and a Pletcher, sounds familiar. Trying to figure out what to do with Yellow Agate too.
 
Gandolf said:
What do you guys make of the Juvenile Fillies (Race 4 Sat)? The fillies that have completed two turn routes have run below par with their speed figures, with Noted and Quoted having the best Bris number. The best speed numbers are all trying two turns for the first time, with the top number by Jamyson'n Ginger having been run in the slop.

Thinking Santa Anita plays well to stretchouts with speed, so I'll probably lean on American Gal and Sweet Loretta with a look also at Noted and Quoted. Two Bafferts and a Pletcher, sounds familiar. Trying to figure out what to do with Yellow Agate too.
Click to expand...
I will likely be using 3,4,9,10
#4 Yellow Agate has to do a lot in a short period of time but she's looked great in her two races
#9 Union Strike winner of Del Mar Debutante and bred to appreciate stretchout
#10 Noted and Quoted beaten by Union Strike two back but came back to win G1 at today's 1 1/16 distance
#3 Valadorna troubled starts in both career races, overcame poor start to get the money breaking maiden in a race that came back faster than G1 Alcibiades on same day

#7 Jamyson 'n Ginger could win but I think really just freaked on off track, although two back on dry track was troubled trip

I'll be against #12 American Gal who breaks from 12 post, has to stretch in distance and has other speeds to deal with

Saw a negative workout report for #2 With Honors, 10/29 work was alarmingly slow 1:06

I guess I'm against #5 Sweet Loretta as well since I thought those two Spa 2yo Stakes wins were weak fields
 
With you on the Dortmund single, think he'll be extremely tough. Gun Runner getting a lot of buzz but this 3yo crop is inferior to last year's (Arrogate being the possible exception).
 
Thoughts on Friday's BC Races:

Race 6 BC Juvenile Turf:

As mentioned above I think we have enough early speed in here to set-up nicely for the closers, #1 Lancaster Bomber, #9 Wellabled and #13 Oscar Performance I think will all be up front early, #9 stretching out from sprints and #1 from the rail isn't going to want to be covered up early and pinned in and #13 is going to have to go and try to clear the filed so he isn't hung wide in the 1st turn. #1 it appears did beat some pretty good Euro's in his last and even if stablemate Churchill is better than the US turfers here he still has to stretch out to 8F and will be under pressure from the get go. #2 Keep Quiet has some tactical speed and should be able to save ground inside sitting just off the leaders and he did in his last, 2 back in the With Anticipation was hung 3 wide the whole way and lost by 2 lengths but ran about 5 lengths further than winner per Trakus, cuts back a half furlong and should get the jump on the closers at the top of the stretch, contender. #5 Made You Look, aforementioned winner of the With Anticipation is another in here who should be sitting in the second group off the leaders. Don't know if he gets as good a trip as he did in last but Javier retains this mount when he had other options is s bit of a vote of confidence. #6 Big Score was impressive in last pulling away to win by 4 lengths over this turf course, which may give him a slight home course advantage here, made a nice move going around the turn and all 3 starts were at this mile distance and Flavian is a growing into a top turf rider out west, can't ignore. My top choice will be #11 Good Samaritan, won debut at Toga, which is a usually a sign of talent for a Mott horse as he usually doesn't have that too revved up at first asking, showing a nice late turn of foot and then followed that up with a win in the G2 Summer at woodbine earning a 94 Beyer, should get the pace setup he needs and will be coming late, the one they need to hold off in the lane. #13 Oscar Performance is the one most compromised by the post here, speed horse breaking from far outside, he's going to have to go early to try to cross the field and save some ground going into first turn, which was a move he did pull off breaking his maiden at the Spa to win by 10 lengths, pace should be quicker in this one, if he can sit off the leaders a little bit and rate could be dangerous, will be using defensively.

#11 is top pick and will include #2, 6 and 13 in multi race bets and #5 underneath as well.
 
Stellar Wind +110 vs Beholder looks good but I'd rather just wait for the race and win bet Stellar Wind
 
I'll go through the rest of Saturday's races....

Filly & Mare Turf
Should get an honest pace here with 2,4,5,12 mixing it up early
#11 Queen's Trust troubled trip 3rd in her last off the layoff, two back 3rd vs Seventh Heaven and Found, and three back 2nd to Minding. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has 6 BC wins including 2 in this race...he's 4 for his last 8 with shippers.
#3 Seventh Heaven was beaten fav in last with troubled trip off the layoff and two back beat stablemate Found. She is 3 for 5 on LH courses, seems to love firm turf and distance should not be a problem.
My underneath longshot is #13 Nuovo Record will have to run a big race off layoff but has been running in Group 1 and 2's vs the boys now back with f&m in here.
 
F&M Sprint

#8 Carina Mia should be tough cutting back in distance, 2nd vs Songbird going longer in last and three back, two back did all the dirty work dueling through fast fractions.
#12 Finest City goes turf to dirt and has won switching surfaces before. Three and four back make her a player in here.
 
Race 7 Dirt Mile:

#Dortmund moves to this race to get away from Chrome and I can't blame his connections, the big guy should really appreciate the class relief and think this race sets up very nicely for him. Against #7 Runhappy, his only other try at 2 turns was his only bad race, 2nd off a layoff and can't trust trainer Laura Wohlers has him ready for this race here, had some interesting trips to the track in the mornings, including starting his works only when he wanted to and not when asked to start going, horse is very talented but pretty much trains himself. #8 Tamarkuz hasn't won this year and may have a bit of hang in him but does seem to be in top form and improving at the moment, don't know about top spot but definite use for 2-4 in exotics. #9 Gun Runner is another who can't really back for top spot but should have a shot to hit the board here. The biggest threat to Dortmund is probably #1 Vyjack, half brother to top turf miler Tepin, has run well over both surfaces and has run some races in past that can win this including the Kelso in 2014, think he's going to be a bit of a wise guy horse and won't see the 10-1 ML but is an interesting play at 7-1 or so.
 
Race 8 Juvenile Fillies Turf:

Possibly, the most wide open race of the weekend. Several of the Euro's look tough including #1 Hydrangea, #4 Spain Burg, #7 Intricately, #9 Cavale Doree and #13 Roly Poly. As for the Americans, I like #5 Victory to Victory who won the G1 Natalma in last which historically been a very good prep for this race and was won by last year's winner Catch a Glimpse for same trainer in Casse, who also sends out #14 La Coronel who has to overcome the far outside post.
 
Race 9 Distaff:

What a great race, 6 of the 8 are Grade 1 winners and with another G2 winner and a Group 1 winner from Argentina. #1 Songbird is 11-11 lifetime but will be facing her toughest race to date and facing older for the first time. Figures to be setting the pace from the inside, but will be facing pressure the whole way. #8 Beholder seeks to end her brilliant career on a high note, but has been beaten by #Stellar Wind in their last 2 matchups. Beholder had to set the pace though in those 2 matchups and maybe stalking Songbird will be a better scenario for her here. #5 Stellar Wind just got beat a neck in this race last year aftr getting bumped at the break and being shuffled way back. She's fresh having raced only 3 times this year but improving speed figures in each and hasn't seemed to miss a beat with some nicely spaced works since the win a month ago, appears to be peaking at the right time. #Forever Unbridled has had a nicely managed campaign this year and won 2 G1's, although she didn't face the tough west coast runners, she also didn't face too many favorable pace scenarios closing into average opening fractions. She should get the early pace up front to close into and if the top 3 start slowing down any in the lane she could certainly pass them all.
 
Play2win said:
Not going to use Lancaster Bomber and I will throw in Victory to Victory, so looking like
#3,6,8,11/3/1,3,4,5,6,7,9,14/5,6,8
Click to expand...

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Claire Novak‏@BH_CNovak
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Trainer Mark Casse says Victory to Victory is out of the @BreedersCup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. IT) due to a popped splint (cont)
 
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