Breeders Cup 2016 11/4, 11/5 @ Santa Anita

1,3/1,3,9 EX

Hard to get much involved here, against Runhappy but doesn't seem an easy race to do anything with
 
Stellar Wind is the 'now horse' imo and also should get a great trip right behind Songbird and Beholder
 
This is one of those deals where we get to test ourselves. I am also on Stellar Wind and would do pretty well if she wins and will lose money if Songbird wins.

That said, I want to see her win as a fan of the sport.

Beholder winning I'd lose money as well...have them all involved at least.
 
Couple of interesting stats from today.

Winners last raced at the following tracks: Santa Anita (5), Belmont (4), Los Al (1). Of course it was a bad day for the Euros, but also for Kentucky, Toronto and Florida.

Not a single horse that won today was off more than 40 days since their last race. This includes favorites in the 1st-Distinctive B (64 days), 6th-Good Samaritan (47), 8th-Roly Poly (41), 9th-Songbird (41), and 10th-Oscar Nominated (54 days), along with some well bet horses like Gun Runner.

Not a guarantee, since American Pharoah did the trick last year, but it's something to factor into the decision making.
 
The dirt track seemed to play fair in sprints, where horses were able to sit anywhere from 1 to 5 lengths back and rally to win. In the routes the winners were closer to the pace, all within two lengths.

The turf seems to play well to front runners and pressers; the sprint was a wire job (albeit with the favorite), while the routes went to horses either leading or within 3 1/2 lengths.
 
R4 Juvenile Fillies

I will likely be using 3,4,9,10

#4 Yellow Agate has to do a lot in a short period of time but she's looked great in her two races
#9 Union Strike winner of Del Mar Debutante and bred to appreciate stretchout
#10 Noted and Quoted beaten by Union Strike two back but came back to win G1 at today's 1 1/16 distance
#3 Valadorna troubled starts in both career races, overcame poor start to get the money breaking maiden in a race that came back faster than G1 Alcibiades on same day

#7 Jamyson 'n Ginger could win but I think really just freaked on off track, although two back on dry track was troubled trip

I'll be against #12 American Gal who breaks from 12 post, has to stretch in distance and has other speeds to deal with

Saw a negative workout report for #2 With Honors, 10/29 work was alarmingly slow 1:06

I guess I'm against #5 Sweet Loretta as well since I thought those two Spa 2yo Stakes wins were weak fields
 
R5 Filly & Mare Turf

Should get an honest pace here with 2,4,5,12 mixing it up early
#11 Queen's Trust troubled trip 3rd in her last off the layoff, two back 3rd vs Seventh Heaven and Found, and three back 2nd to Minding. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has 6 BC wins including 2 in this race...he's 4 for his last 8 with shippers.
#3 Seventh Heaven was beaten fav in last with troubled trip off the layoff and two back beat stablemate Found. She is 3 for 5 on LH courses, seems to love firm turf and distance should not be a problem.
My underneath longshot is #13 Nuovo Record will have to run a big race off layoff but has been running in Group 1 and 2's vs the boys now back with f&m in here. 3 for 5 on LH courses.
 
R6 Sprint

#2 Drefong and #7 Masochistic look like the speeds
#5 A.P. Indian should get a good trip behind the speeds

Those three are obvious, if not them, then...
#1 Mind Your Biscuits
#9 Limousine Liberal
 
R10 F&M Sprint

#8 Carina Mia should be tough cutting back in distance, 2nd vs Songbird going longer in last and three back, two back did all the dirty work dueling through fast fractions.
#12 Finest City goes turf to dirt and has won switching surfaces before. Three and four back make her a player in here.
 
Race 4 Juvenile Fillies:

#4 Yellow Agate: Like the progression from 6F to 1 Mile and breed to stretch out further.
#8 Dancing Rags: Stepped up when stretched out and moved to dirt, Motion was hot as anyone this fall
#10 Noted and Quoted: Won the local prep in the G1 Chandelier and has trained forwardly for this.
#2 With Honors: Ran well in last in dirt debut, should be the one they have to catch, if speed is carrying she can be dangerous.
 
Race 5 Filly and Mare Sprint:
#3 Seventh Heaven: Won 2 G1s this summer in Europe including a win over Found, appeared to have some trouble in the last but ships for a top trainer and gets a top jockey here.
#5 Al's Gal: One I like at a price, seems to be improving and has some tactical speed where she should be right off the leaders.
#8 Lady Eli: 3rd off a long layoff and you know this is race they were pointing towards all along, appeared to be coming back to her old self in last, will be tough to b]hold off late.
#11 Queen's Trust: Hasn't found the winner's circle but did hit the bard in last 4 races, all G1 efforts against older in England. Use underneath at the very least.
#13 Nuove Record: Wildcard has been running against some top males in Japan and Hong Kong and has been competitive, tough to see for a win, but ould certainly be involved.
 
Race 6 Sprint:

#2 Defrong: Winner of 4 straight including the G1 King's Bishop in last, will look to take them gate t wire here.
#5 AP Indian: 6-6 this year and in my opinion has been top sprinter, should get a great stalking trip and my top pick.
#7 Masochistic: Lightly raced this year making just 3rd start, speed figures in those 2 efforts are very good but has only beat a 5 horse field and a 3 horse field. Will be facing pressure from the get go in here and is a play against to me.
#9 Limousine Liberal: Longshot pick, could stalk from outside and come down the middle of the track if speed starts backing up
 
I'm gonna have to watch Cup races on NBC, feed online from Santa Anita blows. How do you fuck this day up?
 
Thanks again fellas for sharing, greatly appreciated for someone like me trying to figure this all out. BOL to you all.
 
Thanks again fellas for sharing, greatly appreciated for someone like me trying to figure this all out. BOL to you all.

Specifically this

Just upset a few of us couldn't pull this trip off, I bet Streakin is loving life right about now
 
I would love to do the Saratoga thing sometime with you guys, how much fun would that be....
 
I'm in

Still trying to get a group to coordinate for the Derby next year but that's proving to be difficult. All these guys with kids killin me
 
I really like Flintshire as a single today. Want to single Tepin but lotta good horses.

You guys ever come to Keeneland, and I'm in.
 
LA is only a 5 hour drive from here, just so tough to get people with lives to commit :hang:
 
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