2023 PGA Championship @ Oak Hill Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
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To experience Oak Hill Country Club is to experience excellence. Grounded in a rich history of championship golf, Oak Hill’s East Course has been the gracious yet grueling host to what, in May 2023, will be four PGA Championships, the Ryder Cup, three U.S. Opens, two U.S. Amateurs, the U.S. Senior Open, and two Senior PGA Championships.

And so, we are on to the 2nd major of the season. I'll admit, the PGA falling in May really doesn't do it for me. There was something about 'Glory's Last Shot' in August that I just liked abouty the PGA Championship. This spot on the schedule is simply out of place. But, it is what it is, and we'll be crowning a champion next week. So, let us get to capping...

JT defends his title from Southern Hills...

Modern Day (aka this century) PGA winners at Oak Hill are Shaun Micheel and Jason Dufner. We do need to remember that both those players won in the heart of summer when the course plays much differently.

This year’s PGA will take place at Oak Hill, which has gone through quite the renovation over the last decade or so. The East Course has been essentially overhauled and will feature a drastically different look due to a large removal of trees, recontoured bunkers and major work to three holes, including the elimination of one altogether.

Architect Andrew Green revised the Donald Ross-designed course and added 200 yards of additional teeing space, bringing the total championship distance to just under 7,400 yards.

Some current odds:


Jon Rahm
+750
Scottie Scheffler
+750
Rory McIlroy
+1200
Justin Thomas
+2000
Brooks Koepka
+2000
Patrick Cantlay
+2000
Xander Schauffele
+2200
Jordan Spieth
+2500
Tony Finau
+2600
Collin Morikawa
+2800
Cameron Young
+2800
Viktor Hovland
+2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick
+3000
Sungjae Im
+3000
Max Homa
+3300
Dustin Johnson
+3500
Sam Burns
+3500
Cameron Smith
+4000
Jason Day
+4000
Hideki Matsuyama
+4500
Tom Kim
+5000
Tyrrell Hatton
+5000
Shane Lowry
+6000
Sahith Theegala
+7000
Talor Gooch
+7000
Joaquin Niemann
+8000
Patrick Reed
+8000
Tommy Fleetwood
+8000
Rickie Fowler
+8000
Wyndham Clark
+8000
Adam Scott
+8000
Keegan Bradley
+10000
Corey Conners
+10000
Justin Rose
+10000
Keith Mitchell
+10000
Taylor Moore
+10000
Mito Pereira
+10000


Article on the Field from SI
 
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Oak Hill has a tough finish. Holes 17 and 18 (both par 4’s) were the 1st and 3rd hardest holes in 2003 and they were the hardest 2 holes 10 years ago, averaging 4.42 and 4.34 so anyone in the house will have an advantage over someone still on the course on the same score on Sunday





22 of the last 37 winners (59%) were breaking their majors maiden

more holes shaping left to right, faders of the ball should be favoured (or left-handers who draw the ball) and to illustrate just how tough a test of golf the East Course at Oak Hill has been, in the eight other major championships held here (including the three seniors) only 13 men have finished the 72 holes under par and the lowest total, aside from Dufner's, was Jack Nicklaus' six-under-par 274 in this event in 1980, but he was the only man to break par that week
 
gps_3 said:
TFE video preview of the course and explaining the changes made since Dufner's win


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So different from when I played it 20+ years ago, or even from the last PGA Championship there. Sad to see the old par 3 #6 gone, that was like #16 at Augusta where when the pin was set in the right spot any shot could be a hole in one. Also wish they could've kept the pond that guarded the right side of the 15th. I had a birdie on that one :)
 
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First course I ever played where the practice balls were all Titleists. I didn't Tin Cup it and throw some in the bag but they also had a foot square box of Oak Hill tees where you could help yourself and I took a fist full of those lol.
 
Gandolf said:
First course I ever played where the practice balls were all Titleists. I didn't Tin Cup it and throw some in the bag but they also had a foot square box of Oak Hill tees where you could help yourself and I took a fist full of those lol.
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I played at Shoal Creek a few weeks ago and they have Titleists on the range as well. Funny story is that right before the club had sent an email out to the membership after they had found a few range balls out on the course to remind them that the balls were for range use only lol
 
All the value has been sucked out of Koepka, but this sets up well for him if he can maintain that form from Augusta. Also looks like DJ and Cam Smith have been playing pretty well since the Masters too. Spieth has to be on fade alert if he even plays with the wrist injury. Cam Young makes sense here, and even though he won last week, Jason Day isn't scared to go on a heater and I think he'll find his way on my card a few times
 

​

Thursday, May 18 (Round 1)​

Though it doesn’t figure to be particularly warm, it should be a nice day at the golf course on Thursday for the opening round with a high of 61° in the forecast with moderate winds blowing consistently about 5-10 mph throughout the day. The forecast also calls for a sunny day with little chance for precipitation, if any at all.

​

​

Friday, May 19 (Round 2)​

Some clouds are expected to roll in on Friday for the second round as the temperature is set to rise to a high of 78° for the second round of action in Rochester. There is a bit more win in the forecast with it projected to blow about 10-15 mph throughout the day. There is also a slight chance of rain during the day (13% chance) that goes up to 35% of a chance of rain at night.

Saturday, May 20 (Round 3)​

The one day where weather could even be a moderate issue is on Moving Day at the PGA Championship with a 40-50% chance of rain throughout Saturday. The temperature is set to remain relatively similar with a high of 71° for the day and the wind is set to blow the same 10-15 mph. However, the rainfall appears to be light and occasional, which shouldn’t stop play in the third round based on the forecast.

Sunday, May 21 (Round 4)​

After the potential rain on Saturday, things should clear up on Sunday for the final round as there will be a slight chance (about 20%) of rain in the day, but nothing major at all. That should make way for a largely partly cloudy day with a high of 68° for the day that should provide a nice scen for the finish, especially with a bit of added difficulty as the winds could pick up slightly and blow 10-20 mph throughout they day
 
Rough is bad no matter where you are, that favors bombers IMO, better to be close. Also looking at bogey avoidance, pars are good.

Bryson has been playing better….could be worth a look to make the cut or T20.

Everywhere I look people are on X this week….
 
aplous said:
Rough is bad no matter where you are, that favors bombers IMO, better to be close. Also looking at bogey avoidance, pars are good.

Bryson has been playing better….could be worth a look to make the cut or T20.

Everywhere I look people are on X this week….
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I like Xander to play well, but I'm done betting on him to win a major. I think he will eventually, but it won't be with my money on it. As for Top 5/10/20, I think he's relatively safe

Bryson was a world-class golfer before he ruined his game and health with his bulking. It was interesting, but a guy who had won a US AM and NCAA individual championship (go look at the list of everyone who has done that) didn't need to do that. I guess it worked out when he overpowered Winged Foot, but he's been a non-factor on LIV until last weekend. I don't like the guy, but it's more interesting when he's relevant

I know the whole world will be on Brooks as the best performing LIV guy, but I think DJ has a chance to make some noise this week, and his odds are more favorable. I still don't know how to transfer LIV results to major championship golf, but winning last week can't be bad, and he certainly has the type of game that could shine on a course like this

I'm also looking at Adam Scott matchups and top 10/20 finishes.
 
Green contours will be a mystery early as most have changed since 2013. 7400 yards but the course is gettable if you can keep it in the fairway.

1 is a pretty straightforward hole, not easy but not difficult
2 is short but 2nd shot you're hitting uphill
3 is a tough, tough par 3
4 is a long Par 5 but it should average under 5
5 is a 7 or 8 iron which is always in these guys wheelhouse
6 will be a bear and probably #1 toughest on the week. Creek in play for both shots we'll see 6s and 7s
7-9 are like 10-12 at Bethpage although not as long

-1 is a good target score for the front

10 is not difficult, downhill so it plays shorter
11 is another tough par 3. Was the scariest tee shot I've ever seen in 2013 with the flag barely visible behind a high lipped bunker
12 starts a stretch of breather holes and 13 is the Hill of Fame Par 5 that might be reachable
14 is going to be a driveable hole and #18 toughest hole
15 is a 9 iron or wedge, 12-15 are all good scoring holes
16 is another straightforward hole, dead straight and a little downhill
17 is the beast hole on the inward 9, 500 yards, uphill tee shot, dogleg. Expecting it to be #2 toughest.
18 is a difficult dogleg right but if you're in the fairway the 2nd shot is a 6,7,8 iron, not bad.

The birdie chances on 12-15 make -2 a good target score for the back nine, for total target of 67. Four of those will win you this PGA by about 3 shots IMO.

Someone playing well can shoot 64, maybe 63. A bad day in the tee box can easily lead to 75-76.
 
I bet Brooks 22 and DJ 35.....so many things pointing to Brooks IMO. Playing great golf, has great history on similar NE courses
 
Is this on pga.com? I'm just coming to but seeing it's not on tv for another hour
 
laopadak said:
I don’t think his short game and touch will hold up. Could be completely wrong but have already decided to fade, will see what’s available for rd2.
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I'll listen to you.

Full day of errands and appointments so will just start watching in 20 or so.
 
I think I misread your post Bar- tied for first on a course that’s playing close to 3 over, yeah, that dusting resulted in a polished look.

Yep, and he just knocked one within a foot, for another birdie look
 
laopadak said:
I think I misread your post Bar- tied for first on a course that’s playing close to 3 over, yeah, that dusting resulted in a polished look.

Yep, and he just knocked one within a foot, for another birdie look
Click to expand...
I was basically saying I'll tail a potential RD 2 play.
 
I have not followed LIV closely, but Big Beefy looks a lot less beefy than I remember. His swing looks much more “normal” and something that can be duplicated. I am not betting on him, but I am staying away from fading him.
 
B.A.R. said:
Not shocked by Day coming off a win...

Rahm and Fitz both being +6 definitely a surprise
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Agree on Day. That was a very emotional win last week. Absolutely shocked with Rahm. Rory is much closer than his norm with his usual slow starts. He hit it really bad today and only five shots back or so..
 
RBTrojan said:
I have not followed LIV closely, but Big Beefy looks a lot less beefy than I remember. His swing looks much more “normal” and something that can be duplicated. I am not betting on him, but I am staying away from fading him.
Click to expand...
He actually sounded somewhat normal in his post round interview which is definitely a first
 
They couldn't get a better camera setup on 15? It's like we're in the last row of the bleachers.
 
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