Wildcard Round Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Thinking Chiefs + Jags ML combo right off the bat.

Thinking Falcons as an interesting dog with the experienced quarterback.

Let's discuss and use high amounts of wagered money to make this otherwise shitty-looking round really exciting and BOL guys!
 
KC minus 6 or less I will take.

Don’t see how Bills get by without Shady

NO -4 or less I would take

Rams are just better than Falcons.

Favs should win. Need to see lines. Realllly wanted LA-Carolina
 
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Official Wild Card Weekend Schedule:

Saturday, January 6th
Titans at Chiefs (4:35pm ET)
Falcons at Rams (8:15pm ET)

Sunday, January 7th
Bills at Jaguars (1:00pm ET)
Panthers at Saints (4:40pm ET)
 
Wasn't there a rule that somebody mentioned? If -5 bet the favorite if -9 bet the dog? Or other way around?
 
My first numbers (AKA Gut)

Tenn 44
Kc -7.5

Atl 44
LAR -7

Buf 41
Jax -7

Car 45.5
No 5.5

I bet UNDER 50 in LA Rams, and will continue to do so all the way to 47. Again, these are my gut numbers, but I feel very confident that when I run my software, LA will flash points probability of 21-26 PTS, and Atl 17-21. Rams defense has been at the top of my ranking since WK3, and ATL's offense has hung around the bottom of the league almost all season. RAMS will get my money up to 6.

Carolina ML of +250 or more will get my money, the UNDER 48.5 already has.

I wouldn't bet the Jacksonville game with Fondy's money.
 
Think you could make easy (gulp) $ on Chiefs/Jags ML parlay

Titans stink and Bills may not score sans Shady or even hobbled. Bortles would have to be epically bad and with the Bills run D weak I doubt that is even possible with Fournette getting 35 carries. Only Andy Reid can F up the Chiefs game but Mularkey is clueless how to use Mariota. And Fat Andy isn't calling plays anymore.
 
my gut says rams and then the 3 dogs, esp if you can get 7.5s. Just don't think Andy Reid or Bortles can lay 7.5s in playoff games. No reason why Carolina can't win SU, though they haven't looked any good the last two weeks. I think they'll be ready next week.
 
cubsker said:
my gut says rams and then the 3 dogs, esp if you can get 7.5s. Just don't think Andy Reid or Bortles can lay 7.5s in playoff games. No reason why Carolina can't win SU, though they haven't looked any good the last two weeks. I think they'll be ready next week.
Click to expand...

I trust Andy Reid to lay the 7. Tied for 9th all time in playoff wins with 11. Reid has his flaws, but I feel like he gets a bad rap for the wrong things sometimes
 
cubsker said:
my gut says rams and then the 3 dogs, esp if you can get 7.5s. Just don't think Andy Reid or Bortles can lay 7.5s in playoff games. No reason why Carolina can't win SU, though they haven't looked any good the last two weeks. I think they'll be ready next week.
Click to expand...
Jags just went to 7.5
 
Capaholic said:
I trust Andy Reid to lay the 7. Tied for 9th all time in playoff wins with 11. Reid has his flaws, but I feel like he gets a bad rap for the wrong things sometimes
Click to expand...

he's 11-12 in the playoffs. not giving him a ton of credit for that and yeah, he generally ends up looking like a brain dead moron when the clock strikes 12 on his season.
 
cubsker said:
he's 11-12 in the playoffs. not giving him a ton of credit for that and yeah, he generally ends up looking like a brain dead moron when the clock strikes 12 on his season.
Click to expand...

Then i would take the Titans if I were you. GL.
 
Scheduling notes of interest
Atlanta on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks
Buffalo 3rd straight road game(no change in time-all east coast)

Tennessee vs Kansas City features the team with the best turnover differential in the playoffs (KC +15-2nd in NFL to Bal) and Tennessee (-4,worst team of any in playoffs)
 
Some recent trends worth noting on these games;

Tennessee is 5-1 ats last 6 at KC, with the road team posting a 7-1 ats mark last 8. Over is 5-2.
The favorite if 13-3 ats last 16 in the Atl/Rams, with the total at 16-5 to the over. However, Atlanta is 5-2 ats last 7.
Buff is 5-2 ats the last 7 at Jax, with the over going 5-0.
Carolina is 0-6 ats last 6, including 1-4 ats here. Over is 6-1 last 7, including 4-0 here.

good luck, gentlemen

:tiphat:
 
Jax laying too many imo. I think it will be a 1 possession game. Go ahead and lay 2 scores with bortles, especially the way they have played last couple weeks.
 
Jags always suck on west coast and Titans are a tough match-up. I don't believe in emphasizing recent form in football like you do in sports when they play more often. A week is a long time in between games.
 
Getting a full possession against Andy in a playoff game, check.

Getting a full possession in a playoff game against Blake Bortles with a QB that never turns it over, check.

Laying less than 7 with a superior, rested team against an average team that had to stress itself out a lot to just make the playoffs / flying cross country.
 
raems said:
Getting a full possession against Andy in a playoff game, check.

Getting a full possession in a playoff game against Blake Bortles with a QB that never turns it over, check.

Laying less than 7 with a superior, rested team against an average team that had to stress itself out a lot to just make the playoffs / flying cross country.
Click to expand...

Bortles won't need to turn it over when Jags can run down Buffalo's bottom-ranked run defense's throat. Jags also lead league in takeaways. But I get the hesitation with Jags' passing attack. For me it's less about Bortles (i'm not saying he's Brady, btw) and more about all the injuries to the wide receivers. That dropped touchdown pass yesterday is a nightmare in my mind. The overall lack of chemistry and the reliance on either unproven receivers to make a play on the ball or Bortles to be super accurate so that receiver doesn't have to make play.

Falcons won their only west-coast game, 34-31 @ Seattle. Playoff experience.

People are saying that Rams are the better team. Well that's already accounted for by the spread. They're favored. It's like saying Rams will cover because they are favored. Well favorites do cover so maybe it happens. Imo the key is to find what's not accounted for by the spread.
 
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Seeing two 8's & two 6's on Bovada. May just sweetheart tease the dogs to 21"s & 19's, easier than thinking.
 
raems said:
Getting a full possession against Andy in a playoff game, check.

Getting a full possession in a playoff game against Blake Bortles with a QB that never turns it over, check.

Laying less than 7 with a superior, rested team against an average team that had to stress itself out a lot to just make the playoffs / flying cross country.
Click to expand...

As mentioned above Reid has 11 wins in 12 appearances. Has won a game in 9 of those 12 appearances. 9 of his 11 playoff wins have been by a TD or more.

Some sort of Reid fear should not keep you off this game if you like it, especially with one of the best offenses he has ever coached.

Just saying. I get Reid criticism. I
Don't get the ones that don't make sense.
 
My two cents...I'm typically an NFL dog player/favs less than 7 kinda guy....

Kansas City ML is my favorite bet of the wild card weekend, but not interested in laying the points. ML and Open Parlay/Teasers with KC in it
No clue with Atlanta/LA Rams.....St.Louisan who has bias and jealousy against the Rams,so won't touch it.
Lean Jacksonville, but not a ton of confidence in it, or to lay points...if McCoy can't go, a definite stay away from Bills side
Have a 20:1 future on Carolina, but could easily see NO in Minnesota as the NFC representative.
 
I'll get into the Bills game more in depth but Marcus Murphy will have to have a productive day- even if Shady is a go he won't be playing as many downs. Tolbert running angry right now and could be beneficial in short yardage.

I will say the Bills secondary is all healthy right now and have the advantage vs the Jags wrs. IF the Bills can get up and force Bortles to win with his arm they have a shot. The Jags D is formidable, I wonder (worry) how conservative Buffalo's game planning will be to start.

I played a ties win teaser with Jags-3 but the more I think about it the more I'm leaning towards a Bills wager +pts. Line is inflated, might start an open teaser to get 3 scores and wait for next round to close....
 
I do not see how the Titans have ANY chance of winning. This KC team on offense is so scary if they are cranking on all cylinders, they are Super Bowl Bound. (Wish Berry was playing)
I am currently thinking about betting on the Super Bowl to be a rematch of Super Bowl IV.
 
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Just did a quick look at Super Bowl Appearances and here is what I came up with..

AFC
New England 9 (5-4)
Pittsburgh 8 (6-2)
Buffalo 4 (0-4)
Kansas City 2 (1-1)
Tennessee 1 (0-1)
Jacksonville 0

3 Super Bowl Champs
Pittsburgh 6
New England 5
Kansas City

NFC
Minnesota 4 (0-4)
LA Rams 3 (1-2)
Philadelphia 2 (0-2)
Carolina 2 (0-2)
Atlanta 2 (0-2)
New Orleans 1 (1-0)

2 Super Bowl Champs
LA Rams (via St Louis)
New Orleans

Notes:
5 current QBs have played in a Super Bowl
Brady 5-2
Big Ben 2-1
Brees 1-0
Cam 0-1
Matty Ice 0-1
 
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Wild Card Round
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) | O/U: 44.5

Saturday, Jan. 6 | 4:35 PM | ESPN

NFL Analyst Stuckey says: Marcus Mariota has performed substantially worse on the road this season (8 TDs/4 INTs at home vs. 5 TDs/11 INTs on the road). The Titans average 1.6 turnovers per game (23rd in the NFL), and that number gets much worse on the road (2.2 turnovers, 29th overall). That spells trouble in a hostile environment in January, especially against a Chiefs team that turns it over less than any other team in the league at 0.7 times per game (only 0.5 at home).

The Titans do have the ability to shut down the Chiefs’ rushing attack, as they only allow 3.6 yards per rush (4th in the NFL). Conversely, the Chiefs may struggle to contain Derrick Henry, as their rush defense, which ranked 31st DVOA through 16 weeks, allows 4.3 yards per rush (24th in the NFL).

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6) | O/U: 48.5

Saturday, Jan. 6 | 8:15 PM | NBC

Stuckey says: At first glance, this line looks too high considering Los Angeles will not benefit from a massive home-field advantage. The Falcons will have opportunities to move the ball on the ground against a run defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), and also through the air with a banged up Rams secondary (starter Kayvon Webster is on IR, and new starter Troy Hill is questionable). The Falcons have had much more success in the red zone, as they rank 5th in the NFL in red zone TD scoring percentage (Rams rank 25th). Atlanta will have a significant postseason experience advantage against a very young Rams roster. One of the Rams’ biggest advantages is on special teams (third in DVOA, compared to 24th for the Falcons) is neutralized by not having stud kicker Greg Zuerlein healthy.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8) | O/U: 40

Sunday, Jan. 7 | 1:05 PM | CBS

Stuckey says: The Bills head to Jacksonville this weekend, and might not have the services of LeSean McCoy, who left Sunday’s game in Miami on a cart with an ankle sprain. The MRI came back negative, but it’s hard to envision Buffalo will have a fully healthy Shady ready to take advantage of a Jaguars defense that gives up 4.5 yards per rush (29th in the NFL). That spells trouble against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL through Week 16. The Jaguars’ defensive line, ranked 3rd in adjusted sack rate, should live in the backfield against a Bills offensive line ranked 30th in the same metric. I’m just not sure how Buffalo’s offense, the NFL’s 3rd worst per DVOA, will move the ball without a healthy McCoy, who accounted for more than 32% of the Bills’ yards this season (3rd highest percentage in the NFL). Under 40 also warrants strong consideration.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) | O/U: 48.5

Sunday, Jan. 7 | 4:40 PM | FOX

Stuckey says: The Saints will look to complete a three-game season sweep of the Panthers in New Orleans, where they have compiled a 7-1 record this year. A team has not finished 3-0 over an opponent in a season since 2009, when the Cowboys swept the Eagles.

Carolina’s defensive line, which ranked No. 1 in adjusted sack rate through last week, has carried them this season. However, they will run into a Saints offensive line that can neutralize their havoc (No. 1 in adjusted sack rate), helping Brees stay upright and take advantage of a weak secondary.

NFL Playoff Odds
(All odds via BetOnline)

AFC

New England Patriots: -130
Pittsburgh Steelers: +250
Kansas City Chiefs: +800
Jacksonville Jaguars: +1000
Buffalo Bills: +4000
Tennessee Titans: +4000

NFC

Minnesota Vikings: +180
Philadelphia Eagles: +300
Los Angeles Rams: +500
New Orleans Saints: +500
Atlanta Falcons: +1000
Carolina Panthers: +1200

Super Bowl

New England Patriots: +200
Minnesota Vikings: +450
Pittsburgh Steelers: +600
Los Angeles Rams: +1000
New Orleans Saints: +1000
Philadelphia Eagles: +1000
Kansas City Chiefs: +1600
Atlanta Falcons: +2000
Jacksonville Jaguars: +2000
Carolina Panthers: +2500
Buffalo Bills: +10000
Tennessee Titans: +10000
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Imo the key is to find what's not accounted for by the spread.
Click to expand...

everything is accounted for in the spread

its just a matter of getting as close to even action as possible.... and figuring out if they could have opened a team higher or lower based on public perception
 
Jacksonville beat exactly one playoff team this year. The five interception game in Pittsburgh. Bills are an average team but they do have impressive wins @Atlanta and @Kansas City. Shady being out is just such a ? Still lean Buff at current number.
 
C-MAN said:
Jacksonville beat exactly one playoff team this year. The five interception game in Pittsburgh. Bills are an average team but they do have impressive wins @Atlanta and @Kansas City. Shady being out is just such a ? Still lean Buff at current number.
Click to expand...

Kind of an unfair point imo because we faced so few playoff teams. If you expand to include teams that were still in hunt in week 17, Jags also beat Chargers, Ravens and Seahawks. But yeah if Jags O is as abysmal as against Tennessee, it's vulnerable to lose to anybody. But Bills' run D is poorly-ranked and rush attack (combined with great D, which is looking better against Bills with Schady who won't be 100% and he's responsible for 33% of their yards from scrimmage) is at centerpiece of numerous Jags' blow-out wins so far
 
Titans getting 8 or more is a gift imo. Sure, they got blown out at Houston and Pitt, but they will contain Smith better than they did Watson, and the Pitt score was a bit deceiving as it was a 6 point game in the 4th before the floodgates opened and Mariota played his worst game of the year. They play a ton of close games and won in kc late last year. If Mariota can avoid the interceptions this will be a one possession game either way imo. Byard on kelce is huge for the titans, he has to win or at least neutralize that matchup and make kc beat them with someone else.
 
Man these lines just keep climbing....

Jags- 1-2 vs playoff teams, very solid convincing win @ Pitt but remember that was off a road loss @ NYJ. They have been pretty pedestrian 2ndh of the season. SOS had to be one the easiest in the league- they didn't even have to face Desaun Watson.

Bills- 2-3 vs playoff teams, with road wins @ ATL and @KC. Covered vs the Panthers (should have won, I'm looking at you ZAY). Looking back how big was the road win vs the Chiefs coming off 3 straight dd losses?

I will say to me it looks like in the big wins both jax and Buff caught teams in tough spots. Both teams lost 2 games to divisional rivals, a bit more surprising Jax couldn't get it done vs Tenn but again not much to play for last week.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Man these lines just keep climbing....

Jags- 1-2 vs playoff teams, very solid convincing win @ Pitt but remember that was off a road loss @ NYJ. They have been pretty pedestrian 2ndh of the season. SOS had to be one the easiest in the league- they didn't even have to face Desaun Watson. .
Click to expand...

It was THE easiest in the league. I believe SOV is the lowest of all playoff teams also. Not that I love Buffalo either but they were in the second game against NE for three quarters for what that's worth.
 
Everyone is focused on Shady but I think Clay could be an instrumental part of the offense sunday...

He has come on strong last couple games, albeit with extra motivation facing his old team 2x. Still, outside of the last Patriots game if Clay caught 5 balls we won. With the Jags corners as strong as they are, Clay may be getting extra looks. Jax has let tight ends move the ball- look at the te stats in Jax losses

Walker 4-4 61 yards

Sefarian-Jenkins 4-4 46 yds

Everett 1-1 4yds 1 td

Zona- 3 tes (mainly seals-jones) a combined 8 catches 107 yards 1 td

SF- Kittle 3 42 yards 1 td.


Another factor not being talked about is how the Jags strength (passing d) doesn't neutralize the Bill's strength (running the ball). The Bills offensive weakness is the passing game/wrs, who aren't really going to get off @ Jax anyway. Both teams are good at running the ball and both struggle to stop it. Bills got steamrolled in the run game 4 times this season- twice to NE, the Saints and the Jets. All 3 had light years better passing attacks to keep the Bill's d unbalanced. Bortles isn't striking fear in anyone's heart. Tyrod is better at protecting the ball than BB is.
 
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