Wildcard Round Discussion Thread

I think concern about Bortles is overstated. 12 of his 13 interceptions came in games when he had to throw over 30 passes, when Jags were coming from behind and/or lost. Most of his interceptions came when Fournette really struggled. 3 INT's vs SF, Fournette 2.7 YPC. 1 INT vs Arizona, Fournette 12 carries 2.1 YPC. 2 INT vs Chargers Fournette 1.9 YPC. 2 INT vs Tennnessee in September, Fournette 1.9 YPC.

So if Buffalo continues to stop the run, it's a different Bortles that they deal with. Look at this game in which Fournette wasn't shut down completely and Jags didn't come from behind. 4.2 YPC vs Seattle, Bortles: 18/27 268 yards 2 touchdowns ZERO Int's.

Not saying Bortles is amazing or even very good. But he won't be close to the disaster he's been if Jags stay ahead and develop the run game, which are reasonable expectations against Bills bottom-ranked run D.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Man these lines just keep climbing....

Jags- 1-2 vs playoff teams, very solid convincing win @ Pitt but remember that was off a road loss @ NYJ. They have been pretty pedestrian 2ndh of the season. SOS had to be one the easiest in the league- they didn't even have to face Desaun Watson.

Bills- 2-3 vs playoff teams, with road wins @ ATL and @KC. Covered vs the Panthers (should have won, I'm looking at you ZAY). Looking back how big was the road win vs the Chiefs coming off 3 straight dd losses?

I will say to me it looks like in the big wins both jax and Buff caught teams in tough spots. Both teams lost 2 games to divisional rivals, a bit more surprising Jax couldn't get it done vs Tenn but again not much to play for last week.
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Jags faced Watson in the second half of week 1
 
There is an overreaction to Bortles turnover margin, he really only has to manage the game most of the time while the defense/run game puts him in favorable positions.

Tons of exaggerations in this matchup.

The Jags secondary is not light years better than buffalo's secondary.

The Bills have allowed 4 fewer passing tds this season than Jax. 2 more plays of 20+ yards. Jax has 21 ints to Buffalo's 18, and as I said before everyone is healthy. In the games the Bills have dominated the secondary has made the plays down the stretch. Tre White is a game changer, but everyone has made plays.

There is also a (slight) overreaction to the Bills run d. They have looked horrid vs NE/NO but If they don't have to respect Bortles, they can get after the rb. Look at the games vs Denver, Atlanta, Chiefs. There is no doubt that Jax has the better run d (just 9 tds allowed to buffalo's 22), but they both give up 4.3 ypc.
 
Our top two corners are very solid. The key for opposing passing attacks is to exploit Posluszny in the middle and Colvin in the slot.

But the Jags' run D has also been a lot better since the acquisition of Marcell Dareus. They held the Chargers to 2.9 YPC, the Browns to 2.8 YPC (they actually rank sixth in the category) and the Titans to 3 YPC.
 
Seems like I play all dogs and under in the WC round.

Adds little to the discussion I know.
 
Tennessee to be 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday games and 8-20 ATS in its last 28 on the road, but the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games of this series. The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their past six games at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last five home playoff games, but 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.

The Saints won both NFC South regular-season meetings, 34-13 and 31-21, covering ATS by 26 points in Carolina and by 4 points in The Big Easy
 
Since 2001, road underdogs entering the postseason on less than a 2-game win streak are just 13-39 SU and 20-30-2 ATS. That is the case this Wild Card weekend among all four NFL away teams: Titans, Falcons, Bills, and Panthers. Each is also catching more than a field goal on the NFL oddsboard, which sours the numbers even more. Road underdogs dip to a 6-29 SU and 12-23-1 ATS record in this scenario. One has to go back to the 2012 NFL season to uncover the last outright upset in this spot, when the Ravens upended the Broncos 38-35 in overtime as 9-point pups.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
Tennessee to be 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday games and 8-20 ATS in its last 28 on the road, but the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games of this series. The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their past six games at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last five home playoff games, but 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.

The Saints won both NFC South regular-season meetings, 34-13 and 31-21, covering ATS by 26 points in Carolina and by 4 points in The Big Easy
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I mean no disrespect to you personally but I hate using trends like that are kind of ridiculous. 5 Saturday games ago who was the titans qb? vince young?

9 chiefs playoff games ago go back when? the Trent Green era? At least the 8-20 in their last 28 road games trend is somewhat relevant bc it involves THIS titans team. But those Saturday games with Bo Scaife and Lendale White have nothing to do with today.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
Since 2001, road underdogs entering the postseason on less than a 2-game win streak are just 13-39 SU and 20-30-2 ATS. That is the case this Wild Card weekend among all four NFL away teams: Titans, Falcons, Bills, and Panthers. Each is also catching more than a field goal on the NFL oddsboard, which sours the numbers even more. Road underdogs dip to a 6-29 SU and 12-23-1 ATS record in this scenario. One has to go back to the 2012 NFL season to uncover the last outright upset in this spot, when the Ravens upended the Broncos 38-35 in overtime as 9-point pups.
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D-Woww said:
I mean no disrespect to you personally but I hate using trends like that are kind of ridiculous. 5 Saturday games ago who was the titans qb? vince young?

9 chiefs playoff games ago go back when? the Trent Green era? At least the 8-20 in their last 28 road games trend is somewhat relevant bc it involves THIS titans team. But those Saturday games with Bo Scaife and Lendale White have nothing to do with today.
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I totally agree. I do like the second post though. It substantiates what we already know about entering playoffs with momentum
 
I do have to say I am really uncomfortable with Jags going against mobile quarterback. Mariota was the Titans' best running option we repeatedly struggled to tackle him.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
Since 2001, road underdogs entering the postseason on less than a 2-game win streak are just 13-39 SU and 20-30-2 ATS. That is the case this Wild Card weekend among all four NFL away teams: Titans, Falcons, Bills, and Panthers. Each is also catching more than a field goal on the NFL oddsboard, which sours the numbers even more. Road underdogs dip to a 6-29 SU and 12-23-1 ATS record in this scenario. One has to go back to the 2012 NFL season to uncover the last outright upset in this spot, when the Ravens upended the Broncos 38-35 in overtime as 9-point pups.
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Getting 13-23 SU and 16-19-1 ATS for the Wildcard Round.

Including the next round the numbers you posted are correct but this year no team in the next round won less than 1 game in a row heading into the playoffs.
 
looks like teaser city for me. Jags/kc, jags/rams, jags/saints. kc/rams, kc/saints. What could go wrong? Lol., seriously tho, think all the favs win, surely 3 of 4.
 
From what I've seen I think we have to question Dan Quinn's mental capacity to coach in s big game.

The demons are still effecting him. He never put the s bowl loss behind him. He didn't.

Game vs patriots he acts all cocky and craxy and starts going for it 4th and 5 at midfield almost to say hey we are here to win ? Really Dan.

He has done similar things in other key games this year.

I think Mcvay is going to outcoach and dominate Quinn. Think Quinn's days as coach are numbered . Once you lose in the big game like he did your career is over Just like Pete Carroll. He is packing it in. Too hard t rebound from.
 
Maybe it’s just me but I would not be surprised at all if Atlanta upset the Rams. First year starting QB, rookie head coach, very little playoff experience, rested starters in the last game. Just a recipe for disaster against an Atlanta team with enough talent to beat anybody. Am a little concerned about travel, but the points look real attractive to me here. I like this Rams team just don’t think they’re quite there yet.
 
But Atlanta playoff experience on the road? Does that make a difference that they had home field last year?
Maybe 1H Falcons play? Falcons definitely have experience starting strong, not always finishing strong though ;P
 
Lexington 125 said:
There is an overreaction to Bortles turnover margin, he really only has to manage the game most of the time while the defense/run game puts him in favorable positions.

Tons of exaggerations in this matchup.

The Jags secondary is not light years better than buffalo's secondary.

The Bills have allowed 4 fewer passing tds this season than Jax. 2 more plays of 20+ yards. Jax has 21 ints to Buffalo's 18, and as I said before everyone is healthy. In the games the Bills have dominated the secondary has made the plays down the stretch. Tre White is a game changer, but everyone has made plays.

There is also a (slight) overreaction to the Bills run d. They have looked horrid vs NE/NO but If they don't have to respect Bortles, they can get after the rb. Look at the games vs Denver, Atlanta, Chiefs. There is no doubt that Jax has the better run d (just 9 tds allowed to buffalo's 22), but they both give up 4.3 ypc.
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Jax also played the NFL's weakest schedule
 
Zeke said:
It was THE easiest in the league. I believe SOV is the lowest of all playoff teams also. Not that I love Buffalo either but they were in the second game against NE for three quarters for what that's worth.
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I read one metric where the Pats had the easiest schedule, but that was prior to the season, regardless jags had an easy schedule and it will be interesting how they handle a tough team and pressure....most likely a buff play + points and teased up for me
 
C-MAN said:
Maybe it’s just me but I would not be surprised at all if Atlanta upset the Rams. First year starting QB, rookie head coach, very little playoff experience, rested starters in the last game. Just a recipe for disaster against an Atlanta team with enough talent to beat anybody. Am a little concerned about travel, but the points look real attractive to me here. I like this Rams team just don’t think they’re quite there yet.
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I wouldn't be surprised either but if they don't win outright I think it's a blowout. No middle ground.
 
kdog said:
I wouldn't be surprised either but if they don't win outright I think it's a blowout. No middle ground.
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Really? Falcons been a tough team to blow out. Since 2015 only 2 losses by more than 10, at pats this year and at Carolina way back in '15. Last 2 seasons that pats game was only loss more than 10, counting that game 3 losses total of more than 6 I believe. Just not a team that gets blown out:
 
C-MAN said:
Maybe it’s just me but I would not be surprised at all if Atlanta upset the Rams. First year starting QB, rookie head coach, very little playoff experience, rested starters in the last game. Just a recipe for disaster against an Atlanta team with enough talent to beat anybody. Am a little concerned about travel, but the points look real attractive to me here. I like this Rams team just don’t think they’re quite there yet.
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No outcome in NFC would surprise me, All quality/deserving teams who earned their spots on that side.

AFC another story, Bills and titans are in because of how putrid the afc is, not because they belong. There 3-4 NFC teams home fishing that more deserving of a playoff spot than those 2 imo. Hell if chargers kicker simply made a fg or 2 the 1st month of season one of these squads be on vacation where they belong.
 
Jax/KC ML parlay is such easy money.
Something has to go wrong in one of those gms. Surely it can't be that easy.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Jax/KC ML parlay is such easy money.
Something has to go wrong in one of those gms. Surely it can't be that easy.
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Also only pays a bit better than -200. Another option is a 7 pt teaser which gets them laying sub FG & pays -140 based on Bovadas lines.
 
played chiefs/rams ML -115 at open... it went as high as -165!


Nobody is talking about how big the loss of Levitre is for the Falcons. They have been getting by on the support of the running game, and the Rams interior is more than capable of wreaking havoc.
 
D-Woww said:
screw it im opening 5 moneyline parlays with the chiefs. leaving 2 spots open in each. that's all im playing this week
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Bama, Rams, KC, Jax.......
I may do some cross sport plays as well, NHL, CBB.... I already have a few open with KC, Jax and an NHL play that won yesterday.
 
Bovada has lines on how many wildcard teams will win this weekend. 1 pays +120, zero +170. However ML of all the faves right now pays +190-ish. If you think not more than one wins, a good play would be to take the prop of 1 winning & also ML parlay all the faves. Worst case it pays out 20 cents. Good wager for someone who believes not more than 1 WC team wins (me) and has a big enough bank to make it worthwhile (not me).
 
Titans 7-0 this year when rushing for 100+ yards. Their recipe for a cover and win on Saturday is simple. Run. Run. Run some more. Run Pass option. Run. Run. Play action. Even if the run isn’t there early they gotta stick w it. Use that big OL to wear down the kc d, and keep our d and kc o off the field.
 
Lay or ML the dog...

The SU winner in an NFL Wild Card Round game is 113-14-4 (88.9%) ATS since 1980, with SU fave winners 61-14-4 ATS (81.3%).
 
I'm a Buffalo fan, so I admit I'm biased, but they are not a terrible team. Terrible teams are all sitting at home this weekend. They may have lucked into a spot, but they have an excellent secondary, a stud RB (who may be limping), above average special teams, a mobile QB who doesn't turn the ball over & has never had much in the way of receiver weapons during his Bills career until now with Clay & Benjamin finally healthy. Obviously, the run defense has been below par & Taylor will never win games on his own, but it's not like their 9-7 record was filled with lucky wins, or at least no more than any other team. Do I think they'll win on Sunday? No. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if the game is decided by a late FG, or a last minute stop by the Jags defense in low scoring battle.
 
dg84 said:
I'm a Buffalo fan, so I admit I'm biased, but they are not a terrible team. Terrible teams are all sitting at home this weekend. They may have lucked into a spot, but they have an excellent secondary, a stud RB (who may be limping), above average special teams, a mobile QB who doesn't turn the ball over & has never had much in the way of receiver weapons during his Bills career until now with Clay & Benjamin finally healthy. Obviously, the run defense has been below par & Taylor will never win games on his own, but it's not like their 9-7 record was filled with lucky wins, or at least no more than any other team. Do I think they'll win on Sunday? No. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if the game is decided by a late FG, or a last minute stop by the Jags defense in low scoring battle.
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No chance at winning? I was hoping to bet the ML
 
Last edited:
emkee said:
Buffalo is a terrible team, just sayin'.
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This "terrible" team went into Atlanta (a team you'll be on) and beat them soundly. Went into KC and beat them too. Zay should have gave them the W @ Carolina... I was the first to say they would get pounded vs the Saints/Chargers, went hard against them vs Rivers. It's too many points! I played a teaser with Jags-3 ties win, and I regret doing so because I think this could be a nailbiter.
 
dg84 said:
I'm a Buffalo fan, so I admit I'm biased, but they are not a terrible team. Terrible teams are all sitting at home this weekend. They may have lucked into a spot, but they have an excellent secondary, a stud RB (who may be limping), above average special teams, a mobile QB who doesn't turn the ball over & has never had much in the way of receiver weapons during his Bills career until now with Clay & Benjamin finally healthy. Obviously, the run defense has been below par & Taylor will never win games on his own, but it's not like their 9-7 record was filled with lucky wins, or at least no more than any other team. Do I think they'll win on Sunday? No. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if the game is decided by a late FG, or a last minute stop by the Jags defense in low scoring battle.
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Okay maybe terrible was too harsh a word, they're a bad team.

Team goes as Shady goes.

29th in yardage on offense and 26th in yardage allowed on defense.

Also 21st in DVOA with a -9.8% efficiency rating.

Team is lucky, nothing more.

With an injured McCoy they should get rolled on Sunday. Cincy did the Jags more of a favor than they did Buffalo.
 
Lexington 125 said:
This "terrible" team went into Atlanta (a team you'll be on) and beat them soundly. Went into KC and beat them too. Zay should have gave them the W @ Carolina... I was the first to say they would get pounded vs the Saints/Chargers, went hard against them vs Rivers. It's too many points! I played a teaser with Jags-3 ties win, and I regret doing so because I think this could be a nailbiter.
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Matt Ryan was Bills MVP for that Atlanta game and they caught the Chiefs when KC was at their absolute worst, not too mention in a shitty scheduling spot.

Have to reiterate the Bills are a 'more lucky than good' 9-7 football team.

And not sure I'll be on Atlanta being that I'm a big believer in DVOA, so conflicted on this game right now.

Either way respect your Bills guys opinion and appreciate the input but they stink.
 
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