Week 10 thoughts
Overall landscape is interesting, with half the lines having a spread greater than 7. It comes down to who do we trust consistently and who are those up and down teams that are likely to reverse their efforts from last week?
Balt/Mia - Ravens couldn't cover last week at home while the Dolphins got it done against lowly Houston. Last time Lamar played in Miami he put up 5 TDs in a romp. Can't expect the same tonight. Sounds like Brisset may start which hurts the total. No real good feel for this one, probably just tease Baltimore with some Sunday plays.
Atl/Dal - 9.5 seems too much to lay on a Cowboys team that hasn't won by more than 6 in 3 weeks against a Falcons team that has played 6 straight one score games. I think the Boys win but this would be one of the teaser partners. Over was a comfortable hit in this one last year, so no bet there either.
NO/Tenn - Titans won with defense last week as the offense without Henry was held well in check. NO is capable and I think they catch the Tits a little flat this week after 4 straight big games. I like NO +3 unless Kamara is out.
Jax/Indy - Time to fade the Jags off that effort against the Bills. After they beat Miami a few weeks ago they came back flat against Seattle. I can see that happening again. Indy's O-line should be able to handle the Jags. Indy -10.5.
Cle/NE - These two teams are almost mirror images.....banged up run games, game manager QBs, better than average defenses. The lack of running backs may force both teams to throw it quite a bit, which leans this one over 45.
Buff/NYJ - Bills off a terrible performance, Jets off getting blown out by Indy. Jets at home have been a spicy meatball so I like the over 48 more than the side. 31-21 or 38-17 looks reasonable.
Det/Pitt - said it last week, do not trust Tomlin laying a big number coming off a win. We all saw what happened Monday night, Steelers were seriously outgained but had the edge in a certain zoological area that helped them win. This is the biggest potential mismatch of the week for officiating. Lions come off a dreadful effort, should be better this week. Teaser play only.
Tam/Wash - both teams off bye weeks trying to snap a losing streak. Tampa on the road has been winning close games. Washington should empty their bag of tricks in this one. Give me Washington + 9.5.
Car/Ari - Saw where the Panthers are kicking the tires on their old buddy Cam, wow. Both teams are pretty banged up, Cards especially. Should trust them but they've actually played much better on the road. Another teaser play only.
Min/LAC - Vikings have been able to tighten the ship after high scoring losses this year. I think both teams can be run on, which could limit the number of plays, although both teams are pretty high on the pace of play charts. A close, fairly high scoring game is on brand for both teams, and that's exactly what the oddsmakers show. Pass.
Phi/Den - Denver goes for the 4-0 sweep of the NFC East, while Philly tries not to go 0-4 against the AFC West. The Theory of Mediocre Teams tells me Philly should bounce back off their loss and Denver is due for a clunker after being almost perfect last week. Philly +3 for me.
Sea/GB - Battle of the returning QBs, just in time for CBS. Imagine a national broadcast of Geno Smith vs Jordan Love? Not sure how either does coming off their breaks, so pass for now, although gut says Packers get back on track.
KC/LV - Two teams that did not play well last week, even though KC pulled out the win. Raiders seem to be getting played hard at the windows this week, which makes me nervous even though they're the side to play. Las Vegas +2.5 for now but may pull out of it later.
