Wednesday May 1-Friday May 10 MLB picks

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PirateAlew

Dean Smith Disciple
12-10 Tues/334-275YTD/ (180-120 Top plays)

As I said in yesterday's thread, if you're here with an axe to grind or some criticism of how I post, take it elsewhere and stop cluttering my threads with nonsense and back and forth. If you're here to comment on the games/picks or ask questions, always welcomed.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Braves-1-130
⭐️Cubs-115
⭐️Royals+117
⭐️Twins-1.5-117
⭐️Dodgers-130
⭐️Red Sox-105
⭐️Reds+124
⭐️Baltimore-1-105
⭐️Phillies/Angels Over 7.5-115
⭐️Tampa/Milwaukee Over 7.5-120
Phillies-1-145
Tampa-117
Tigers-102
Miami-137
Oakland+104
NYY/Baltimore Over 8-120
Colorado/Miami Over 8-125
Cleveland/Houston Over 8-125
 
These 2 teams can and have been scoring, and with Musgrove pitching I expect more Reds runs today. 66% humidity with a 10mph wind out, I wouldnt be surprised to see 10 runs

⭐️Reds/Padres Over 7.5-105
Guardians+1.5-130
 
it was in his message on my laptop when I came back, then I hit refresh and it was GL tonight. I thought i was tripping out... Guess it was meant for someone else .I was confused but it must be funny..
 

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PirateAlew said:
These 2 teams can and have been scoring, and with Musgrove pitching I expect more Reds runs today. 66% humidity with a 10mph wind out, I wouldnt be surprised to see 10 runs

⭐️Reds/Padres Over 7.5-105
Guardians+1.5-130
Click to expand...

so far 8 runs by the 7th. Cashed the over early at least. Thanks to braves for cashing my #1 top play 2 days in a row. fun afternoon 7-2 with the night games to go and Angels/reds to finish.
 
Awesome day so far, cashed the top 4 plays and if Dodgers win, that will cash the top 6 plays. Cubs had to close out a 1-0 game in very dramatic fashion. What a day.
 
For transparency reasons, star plays graded as 2 units and others as one, picked up 7.51 units overall yesterday

Overall

339 - 269. +41.95 Units
 
Easyskanker420 said:
Nice day, Sir - respect
Click to expand...
Smallmouth_bass said:
You helped me trust the Braves yesterday, especially being your top choice. Thank you.
Click to expand...
G-Man said:
Dang! Wow! Great day Pirate!
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Thanks guys, it was an amazing day indeed, rarely hit all the top 5 let alone top 6 for some good profit. Glad everyone else cashed in too!

Crappy MLB slate today but we chug along and go where the lines/matchups lead us...

13-8 Wed (8-4 Top plays)/347-283YTD (188-123 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Guardians+120
⭐️Yankees-126
⭐️Giants+103
⭐️Rocks/Marlins Over 7.5-1115
⭐️Cubs/Mutts over 7.5-130
Cubs+100
Texas-1-135
Marlins-1-115
Gigantes/Red Sux Over 9-125


GL to all.
 
PirateAlew said:
Thanks guys, it was an amazing day indeed, rarely hit all the top 5 let alone top 6 for some good profit. Glad everyone else cashed in too!

Crappy MLB slate today but we chug along and go where the lines/matchups lead us...

13-8 Wed (8-4 Top plays)/347-283YTD (188-123 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Guardians+120
⭐️Yankees-126
⭐️Giants+103
⭐️Rocks/Marlins Over 7.5-1115
⭐️Cubs/Mutts over 7.5-130
Cubs+100
Texas-1-135
Marlins-1-115
Gigantes/Red Sux Over 9-125


GL to all.
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Keep up the great work Pirate. Much appreciated.
 
***FYI about Marlins Total--Umpire in Miami Marlins game is ANDY "Missed call" FLETCHER. This dude rarely calls strikes and rings guys up. He is A HUGE overs ump. Just this year in 6 games he was the ump, every game went over 8 runs. The average runs per game for this guy is 14.8 this year. INSANE (most umps avg 8.5-9 runs per game, rarely over 10). None of these games he officated were in Colorado,. His strike % has ranged from 58.6% (very low) to around 64% about avg. Doesn't necessarily guarantee a ton of runs but this guy is the most hitter friendly ump in the MLB and by a WIDE margin. I already pounded the over due to the pitching, and lack of defense—I had it pegged around 10 runs before but you could prob add 1 to 2 for this guy if he calls the game as he normally does. 66.7% of his games this year went over (avg is around 50%), with lowest total being 8, to high of 18.

Also, The avg era for his games this year is 7.2, next highest is 5.1, lowest being 2.8....
 
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TheDodgers said:
Yankees look to good to be true. Orioles now favs -115. Telling.
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yeah i think a lot of people bet Orioles and line went up. I dont trust Bradish coming off UCL, first start this year, he's been less than spectacular in Double and triple A posting over a 4.0 ERA. Rodon being a lefty with overpowering stuff (and orioles havent seen him outside of McCann), I think yanks can get it done.

**Edit--No Stanton in lineup. that will have move the lines a bit.
 
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PirateAlew said:
***FYI about Marlins Total--Umpire in Miami Marlins game is ANDY "Missed call" FLETCHER. This dude rarely calls strikes and rings guys up. He is A HUGE overs ump. Just this year in 6 games he was the ump, every game went over 8 runs. The average runs per game for this guy is 14.8 this year. INSANE (most umps avg 8.5-9 runs per game, rarely over 10). None of these games he officated were in Colorado,. His strike % has ranged from 58.6% (very low) to around 64% about avg. Doesn't necessarily guarantee a ton of runs but this guy is the most hitter friendly ump in the MLB and by a WIDE margin. I already pounded the over due to the pitching, and lack of defense—I had it pegged around 10 runs before but you could prob add 1 to 2 for this guy if he calls the game as he normally does. 66.7% of his games this year went over (avg is around 50%), with lowest total being 8, to high of 18.

Also, The avg era for his games this year is 7.2, next highest is 5.1, lowest being 2.8....
Click to expand...

Over cashes in the 5th. this ump has the widest strike zone i've seen. tons of walks.
 
Going back to the well with another over. This one looks somewhat obvious with both pitchers having over 5 era and Tuesday's game going over easily (10-9), my excitement for this over jumped even more when I noted that Mark "Double-wide" Carlson is the Homeplate ump. He's the 2nd more lenient umpire this year, with 7 games he's officiated, 5-2 to the over, with an average of an astonishing 11.6 Runs per game (avg is 8-9), calling about 63% strikes. His high scoring game was a Min/LA game with 21 runs (he called 60% strikes that game, well below league avg). His lowest scoring game was 4, and next was 5, then it jumps to 11, 12, and 15 (21 being last). NONE of these games were in Colorado either. So behind two formidable lineups that can bust out at any time and 2 Pitchers with a high ERA, and a lenient Ump, I could not skip this play.
Another fun factoid, L. Allen's last start against Houston? It resulted in a 10-9 win for Clev, in which he gave up 5 runs so I know the guys from Houston can hit him (but more so Clev beating up on Houston's gas can with an 11 era). Both sides should be able to contribute tonight.

Cleveland/Houston over 8.5-130
 
PirateAlew said:
Going back to the well with another over. This one looks somewhat obvious with both pitchers having over 5 era and Tuesday's game going over easily (10-9), my excitement for this over jumped even more when I noted that Mark "Double-wide" Carlson is the Homeplate ump. He's the 2nd more lenient umpire this year, with 7 games he's officiated, 5-2 to the over, with an average of an astonishing 11.6 Runs per game (avg is 8-9), calling about 63% strikes. His high scoring game was a Min/LA game with 21 runs (he called 60% strikes that game, well below league avg). His lowest scoring game was 4, and next was 5, then it jumps to 11, 12, and 15 (21 being last). NONE of these games were in Colorado either. So behind two formidable lineups that can bust out at any time and 2 Pitchers with a high ERA, and a lenient Ump, I could not skip this play.
Another fun factoid, L. Allen's last start against Houston? It resulted in a 10-9 win for Clev, in which he gave up 5 runs so I know the guys from Houston can hit him (but more so Clev beating up on Houston's gas can with an 11 era). Both sides should be able to contribute tonight.

Cleveland/Houston over 8.5-130
Click to expand...

Another easy over, cashed in the 7th. Unfortunately, Clev made too many errors , so prob going to lose Guardians down 8-2. Back tomorrow with Friday's games.
 
For transparency reasons, star plays graded as 2 units and others as one, picked up 1.21 units overall yesterday

Overall

344 - 273. +43.16 Units

BE BACK ON MONDAY WITH AN UPDATED W/L TOTAL AND UNITS TOTAL. BOL EVERYONE.
 
5-4 yesterday/3-2 top plays/352-287YTD/ (191-125 Top plays 2024)
Top plays continue to be good money-makers, hope it keeps up before regression kicks in.

Interesting matchups today, lot of chalk games, which I hate so I do -1 or RL to avoid much over 150ish. Some decent small dogs have a good shot tonight. based on matchups and splits.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️NY Mutts +118
⭐️Cardinals-1.5-110
⭐️Braves+103
⭐️Guardians-1-112
⭐️Phillies-142
⭐️Mariners+108
⭐️Oakland-127
⭐️Padres+105
⭐️Boston+102
⭐️Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5-112
⭐️Baltimore/Cincy Over 9-112
Yankees-1+100
Toronto-1-138
Royals-109
Cubs-120
Reds+101
Pirates-1-115
Boston/Minnesota Over 7.5-130
San Diego/Arizona Over 8-125

Happy TGIF to all those grinding the 9-5---or to those us who retired too early, just another day--i dont even know the day of the week most days until I look at the bettng schedule. Ugh, I do miss the joys of Fridays and the weekend. Just another day to me now.
 
Best of luck Pirate. I'm retired from teaching but painting houses now. No school bells to tell me when to piss or eat. LOL

Good luck this weekend too. I'll be moving my daughter out of a house at Ohio U into an apartment down there. I'll be a U-Haul guy this weekend.

I really want to parlay the Cardinals money line but have not found the perfect fit yet. I do like the Guardians and A's. I think the Yankees rebound too.
 
Most people like to fade Patrick Corbin, but on the Peterson broadcast I heard that since the beginning of 2023 a $100 bettor would be up over $600 betting on him. Getting +160 at home vs a very cold Blue Jays line-up is tempting.
 
Good points, I'm not so much fading Corbin as I'm riding Kikuchi who has been solid this year, while Corbin is up and down, also nats have been on a long raod trip, often tough for a team first game back at home. Toronto had a day to rest. I like toronto against Corbin who has been batting practice more times than not this year.
 
First bad day in MLB (5-14 yuck) in a while, just bad luck all around, Braves losing in 11th capped off the string of bad luck after Mariners blew a 3-1 lead late with the Pen. Guess all my luck went to NBA last night. Long season so we grind on...

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cardinals-1-125
⭐️Oakland-119
⭐️Twins-1-120
⭐️LA Dodgers-1-118
⭐️Reds+107
⭐️Pittsburgh-1-135
⭐️Cubs-119
⭐️Phillies-1-115
⭐️Seattle+120 (1st 5 innings ML)
⭐️Texas/KC Over 8-120
⭐️NY Mets/Tampons Over 7.5-105

Tampa-108
Nationals+1.5-117
Arizona-121
Royals+102
Cleveland-132
Yankees-149
White Sox/Cardinals Over 7.5-125
Colorado/Pittsburgh Over 7-115
LAA/Cleveland Over 7.5-130
Boston/Minnesota Over 7.5-114
Blow Jays/Nationals UNDER 8.5-120
 
A great saturday, 7-3 on top plays, 13-9 overall. good bounceback. 370-310 YTD/

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Rangers-119
⭐️Oakland-120
⭐️Seattle+107
⭐️Rays-117
⭐️Nationals-103
⭐️Reds-107
⭐️Minnesota Twinks-1-112
⭐️Braves-128
⭐️White Sux/Cardinals Over 7.5-105
Cubs+114
Cardinals-152
Tigers+111
Giants-110
Padres+107
Bahston/Minnesoooota Over 7.5-105
Texas Lone Rangers/Kansas City Queens Over 8-115
NY Mutts/Tampons Rays Over 7-120
 
Texas comeback nails #1 play and Nats comeback from 6-1 down to win, as well as the late Rays comeback, turned what was going to be - day into a good one, along with Cavs in NBA. Great weekend!
 
Webb couldnt come through but at least the over cashed. up and down Sunday 10-12 overall, but thankfully my #1 (Rangers) came back to win and 4 of the top 5 cashed so ended up + instead of a bad day like I thought at 3pm when all the teams were losing (Rangers, Rays, Nats, Pirates). Averted a disasterous Sunday with the comebacks.

Back a bit later with Monday's games, had to deal with an unexpected family emergency most of last night and AM. GL to all.
 
Monday--smaller slate but love some of the small dogs today and totals. Looks like a good situation for overs to come in as bats are heating up and we saw a lot of unders Friday.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-1-130
⭐️Rangers-130
⭐️Cleveland-113
⭐️Twins+120
⭐️Dodgers-1.5-123
⭐️Rays-1-115
⭐️Padres+110
⭐️Pirates/Angels Over 7.5-125
NY Mutts+110
Brewers+127
Pirates-135
Texas/Oakland Over 7.5-109
White Sox/Tampa Over 7-125
Giants/Phillies OVER 7.5-125
Detroit/Cleveland Over 7-130

GL to all.
 
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