Saturday-Fri May 31 Taters, Dingers&Punchouts

PirateAlew said:
1. Didn't you read anything what BAR has been saying? Keep your drama out and the trash from across the street, yet you perpetuate this behavior and your friend Nolan has jumped in.
2. No one is here looking for any sympathy or clients. Unlike you, mr ex tout, you bragged all about it and how you had to quit only because your wife had cancer and dad died.. So the only one here who's sold picks is you for RAS Advisors. So unless that a lie, it's Pot calling kettle black.

And just like I told Bender23 (Cheddar) last night who obviously couldnt read til i said it three times---stay out of my threads going forward and don't bother responding. B.A.R just told GMAN and Doc the same publicly for the same kind of behavior you're pulling here.
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Alew just because you perceive yourself as the victim, that doesn’t entitle you to attack others. You need to stop bashing other users. Stay civil.

Everybody: this back-and-forth needs to stop. Nobody wants to read this shit.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
This whole thread will be cleaned up. We‘re going to deal with this. Just save your breath and save us time. Let’s help each other win; support each other; and stop at that.
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Thank you...in baseball news, Nats are up 6-3 in the 9th. Hopefully they don't blow this one or I might lose another monitor 😆
 
B.A.R.

I mean this with respect. If that is your true picture you must be getting tail all over the state from up north. If Tom Brady and J.J. McCarthy could have a baby somehow I picture your face. I'm happily married to a woman so no one get any stupid ideas...
 
^^thank you! Hope we keep winning!

Nasty Nats finished it off, good to cash that one now lets get some more tonight, now have to pull for white sox in G2. I also like the Oakland over, just prob going to play this one for now.

Dodgers/Gigantes Over 8-115
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Greg Peterson on the Baseball betting show does a podcast for an hour and half every day. He works for Vsin and others. Gets paid decent money to talk and pick every game. Not once has he ever listed his units or wins n his show. Same with Play me or Fade me, or Vsin morning bets or even Early Edge. Everyone understands it is a source and used for information. Why is posting here any different? Why does it bother a select few so much???

There is a dude at Blankets that is very good. He has a record but not overall units. No one cares. It’s about proving that I can win more than I lose and it’s up to you to decide how much you want to wager if you agree with the posters pick.

A couple of you look really petty.
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I'm going to jump in here.

Units of money matters in MLB big time.

That's not really a debate.

We've been over this.

For someone to be a better capper, they should have accurate logs of all their plays and prices.

Remember, professional bettors don't bet on teams. They bet on prices.

I've seen many a MLB cappers have a record UNDER .500 and still be up money.

Conversely, we're here for information. You are correct, let's use the plays and information how we would like to.

The bottom line is this -- we need to see more respect all around with each other. I appreciate Dodgers keep a tally(with a somewhat standard unit system). I don't care how much Pirate wagers. I hope he absolutely crushed. He's a very knowledgeable capper, no doubt. I respect that fully.

Honestly, if I was Pirate, I'd just play my top plays and trim the fat! The profit margin would likely be higher (and yet another reason to fully track plays).

Now I'll go back to cleaning the thread up.
 
Dee Money said:
A lot of miserable people in the world nothing better but promoting negativity and hate. Play or don’t play. It’s your choice that’s why I don’t post as there are a lot of ungrateful self centered people just want attention even negative attention just want to be heard criticizing of others who cares units or how much he bet do you. I follow and don’t care how much he bets on a game I don’t fill blindly and do my own research picking my top 3 or 4 picks that aligns. The mods should not allow this nonsense to continue.
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Again,

I never knew we had this many people in the world that don't understand baseball handicapping.

You guys that think a straight up W/L record is indicative of what any capper is doing need to really reexamine things a bit.

I'm all about information and using any and all of that to form my own plays. I agree with you there.

As I said weeks ago, we'd rather those that post records to use units or money. That's how baseball goes due to the pricing.

Now, if you don't want to do that, the best thing to do is not post a record.

Simple as that.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
B.A.R.

I mean this with respect. If that is your true picture you must be getting tail all over the state from up north. If Tom Brady and J.J. McCarthy could have a baby somehow I picture your face. I'm happily married to a woman so no one get any stupid ideas...
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That's Ludvig Aberg.

Next best golfer in the world.

I popped that on during Masters week.

2nd place finish.

Haha, I love that Brady and JJ comment.

I like your humor dude. Good stuff.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm going to jump in here.

Units of money matters in MLB big time.

That's not really a debate.

We've been over this.

For someone to be a better capper, they should have accurate logs of all their plays and prices.

Remember, professional bettors don't bet on teams. They bet on prices.

I've seen many a MLB cappers have a record UNDER .500 and still be up money.

Conversely, we're here for information. You are correct, let's use the plays and information how we would like to.

The bottom line is this -- we need to see more respect all around with each other. I appreciate Dodgers keep a tally(with a somewhat standard unit system). I don't care how much Pirate wagers. I hope he absolutely crushed. He's a very knowledgeable capper, no doubt. I respect that fully.

Honestly, if I was Pirate, I'd just play my top plays and trim the fat! The profit margin would likely be higher (and yet another reason to fully track plays).

Now I'll go back to cleaning the thread up.
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Thank B.A.R. for your response. You seem like a good dude and you are not in an envious spot. I am not at all debating if units matter, and I fully understand that one can have a losing record and still be profitable in baseball. That is not my argument.

The argument is that many of Pirate's daily readers do not care about HIS units. Why? There is no way most people can play the volume of his plays. Most that follow Pirate knows that he is a successful capper. We read his posts to see who he is on and who he likes most (ranking order). Like many have stated we decide what games to play and the amount. I know this bothers some traditionalists that need and want a record with unit amounts. Yet, unless it involves a contest winner, prize, or a trip to Disney...then units really don't matter. I read Bear, Wire to Wire, and BenchCoach every day. I honestly can say I do not know, remember, or care what their unit total is.

If I owned this site, I would understand that there is a large audience out there that reads Pirate's picks, and although not listing units seems unconventional and unconstitutional (LOL) to some, it brings traffic to my business. Again, there is a large percentage that do not care about HIS units. The only bickering I see is in HIS posts. People that have issues with his non unit posting should just stay out and do their own thing. I don't see Pirate going into other threads and starting problems. To me, this problem is easily fixable. Matt Perault does a daily sports podcast called the Daily Juice. It is pretty popular. To me he is a condescending ass who quite honestly is not very good in his picks. I quit listening to his podcasts. I didn't make it my mission to tell the word what I thought of him. I don't go online and harass him either. I AVOID him. Imagine that. There are lurkers that just sit and wait to pounce every day. It is actually very sad, pathetic, and troublesome!

Lastly, it is personal. I don't care what anyone says. What bothers people the most is the days when he seems to lose and Pirate states that he won. It rubs some of these people wrong. Again, I could care less. There have been posters that state GOY, Game of the Century, Locks, Can't lose...it's all the same to me. Posters even try to get political from time to time which really pisses me off. I don't know Pirate personally. We've never had a beer, and I never paid into an account to support him. He also has never asked. Unless he tries to go tout this site should not allow the constant badgering and relentless harassment going on in his threads, regardless of personal feelings or the distain for not posting units. Too many simply do not care...
 
^thank you.


11-10 Tues/472-405 YTD/ (252-187 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Dodgers-135
⭐️Yankees+115
⭐️Phillies-1-125
⭐️Baltimore Oreos-123
⭐️Texas Lone Rangers-144
⭐️Tampa+127
⭐️Braves-1-110
⭐️Angels+108
⭐️Tigers-1-114
⭐️Cincinnati Red Legs+130
⭐️A's/Astros Over 7.5-125
⭐️KC/Seattle Over 7.5-112
⭐️Rocks/Padres Over 7-115
Astros-1.5-110
Nationals+128
Brewers-137
Mariners-138
Padres-1.5-120
Cardinals/Angels Over 8-115
Nationals/White Sux Over 7.5-115
Cincy/Arizona Over 8-130
Cubs/Braves UNDER 9-130

GL.
 
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Five hitters for the Padres are batting over .330 vs Gomber lifetime. Gomber's FIP is much higher than his ERA. Rockies are super hot, but King has had his moments this year. I can't see Padres losing three straight at home vs Rockies. I've been wrong before.

The Astros have the best slugging percentage at home than any MLB team. Brooks is on the mound for the A's. He hasn't pitched in the majors since Covid. Valdez has only given more than 3 runs once in his last 5 starts. A's are scrappy this year, but not because of hitting. A's have only scored 3 runs in the last two games. I see the Astros getting the sweep.

A parlay between the two is 100/195.39

Best of luck today Pirate. Thanks for posting.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Five hitters for the Padres are batting over .330 vs Gomber lifetime. Gomber's FIP is much higher than his ERA. Rockies are super hot, but King has had his moments this year. I can't see Padres losing three straight at home vs Rockies. I've been wrong before.

The Astros have the best slugging percentage at home than any MLB team. Brooks is on the mound for the A's. He hasn't pitched in the majors since Covid. Valdez has only given more than 3 runs once in his last 5 starts. A's are scrappy this year, but not because of hitting. A's have only scored 3 runs in the last two games. I see the Astros getting the sweep.

A parlay between the two is 100/195.39

Best of luck today Pirate. Thanks for posting.
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Thats a very attractive parlay, thanks for the suggestion. Hope we're both right on the Asstros and Fathers today! Good luck brother!
 
Some of you may remember the last time I played totals of games with 2 very hitter friendly umps. One was Mark "walk to First" Ripperberger. He is the home palte ump in San Diego's game with the Rocks today. His games he officiates average this year 10.3 runs (10, 7, 17, 17, 9, 9, 3, 10) All but one came in at over the total of this game. He tends to award more base on balls and call less strikes. Not the only determining factor but taken in conjuction with the recent hitting success of the rocks and ability of the Pads to hit rockies pitching today, especially the bullpen. Both starting pitchers recently pitched well against these same teams, but usually 2nd time around hitters have more of advantage having now seen the pitcher a few times through the previous game. With humidity in the 70% range in San Diego, and a light breeze to right-center, this should help some balls get out or travel further. By my calculations, umpire aside, I have this game projected at 9 runs.

⭐️Rocks/Padres Over 7-115
 
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Sorry they just suck right now.

The over hit again, this all thanks to the Rockies, think i'm 4-0 on Umpire overs so far. LOL

The next over I'm playing tonight isn't much of an umpire play but it does help that it's Larry Vanover, in 7 games he's umped this year behind home, his avg is 9.8 runs per game, as he more hitter friendly than average. His lowest total was 6 runs in SFO where it is a pitcher's parlk to as high as 13 in Washington and 16 in Minnesota. His only other game that stayed under this game of total of 8 tonight is 7 runs in a Yankees/Dbacks game with 2 good pitchers (Gil Vs Nelson). More importantly, these teams are hitting each other's pitching as we saw the last 2 nights. Cards won 10-5 in game 1 and even with Cards ace Sonny Gray pitching last night they won in a 7-6 game. I believe the bats stay hot, given the pitching. Lance Lynn can be a gas can at times, and Griff Canning is posting a 5+ ERA. I have this game at 9 runs, and hopefully with some umpire ease on the batters, we may hit the total without having to sweat at the end (hopefully). This is a regular play as i have enough on Overs and Angels ML is a top play now as well.

Cardinals/Angels Over 8-115


***Edit above: Angels ML is a top play
 
Tnx G, Dodgers and Tigers couldnt get it done but at least Yanks, Phils, Oreos and Rangers came through to salvage the day into a positive. Both over writeups about the umps came through again, wish there were more umps like these guys. :) Angels hit my predicted 9 total run score.

12-10 Thurs/6-5 top plays

Crappy Slate again for Thursday but here's what I played:

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees+109
⭐️Phillies-141
⭐️Cubs-128
⭐️Red Sox-102
⭐️Mutts/Phillies Over 8-115
Dodgers-1.5-130
Astros-1-145
Pirates/Cubs Over 7.5-113
A's/Astros Over 8.5-113
 
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For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Slight gain last night of +1.43 Units

Overall

477- 402. +17.80 Units
 
FYI to everyone who like the "Umpire Overs." We have another in a play I already am big on. Phils/Mutts Over. Chris Guccione, who's games he officiates are averaging 9.6 runs per game this year, with a strike call ratio of 62.5% (low for MLB, usually around 64-65). His last game was Miami/oak in which 15 runs were scored and 10 walks issued (High). His other games? 10, 8, 8, 9, 7, 9, and 11. His lowest being 7 (Once). The total today is 8. all but one have come in over this number. None of these games were in Mile High colorado.
Already loved the over as Phils stadium is a hitters haven, and Phils bats have been hot, cashing over tickets frequently of late. I have this game pegged at 10 runs, and with a little umpire help hopefully, we could see the total cash middle innings, esp if he remains true to form---that he is a more hitter-friendly ump (More balls/walks, less strikes). Off to PT for the torn ACL. Good luck all.
 
PirateAlew said:
FYI to everyone who like the "Umpire Overs." We have another in a play I already am big on. Phils/Mutts Over. Chris Guccione, who's games he officiates are averaging 9.6 runs per game this year, with a strike call ratio of 62.5% (low for MLB, usually around 64-65). His last game was Miami/oak in which 15 runs were scored and 10 walks issued (High). His other games? 10, 8, 8, 9, 7, 9, and 11. His lowest being 7 (Once). The total today is 8. all but one have come in over this number. None of these games were in Mile High colorado.
Already loved the over as Phils stadium is a hitters haven, and Phils bats have been hot, cashing over tickets frequently of late. I have this game pegged at 10 runs, and with a little umpire help hopefully, we could see the total cash middle innings, esp if he remains true to form---that he is a more hitter-friendly ump (More balls/walks, less strikes).
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Why aren’t you including units in this post??

Just kidding. Great stuff thanks for the info!
 
PirateAlew said:
^thank you.


11-10 Tues/472-405 YTD/ (252-187 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Dodgers-135
⭐️Yankees+115
⭐️Phillies-1-125
⭐️Baltimore Oreos-123
⭐️Texas Lone Rangers-144
⭐️Tampa+127
⭐️Braves-1-110
⭐️Angels+108
⭐️Tigers-1-114
⭐️Cincinnati Red Legs+130
⭐️A's/Astros Over 7.5-125
⭐️KC/Seattle Over 7.5-112
⭐️Rocks/Padres Over 7-115
Astros-1.5-110
Nationals+128
Brewers-137
Mariners-138
Padres-1.5-120
Cardinals/Angels Over 8-115
Nationals/White Sux Over 7.5-115
Cincy/Arizona Over 8-130
Cubs/Braves UNDER 9-130

GL.
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Appreciate the Tampa Game yesterday..keeping rocking!
 
Yes, my parlay went down in flames yesterday because of the stupid ass Padres. Shouldn't someone be fired? Their budget is way too high to be getting swept by the Rockies. Yet, I knew the Astros were still live. I didn't want to pay the juice on the Astros solo and needed a partner. I went back and looked at your star plays and noticed the Rangers. They were also on my list from my research in the morning. I doubled down...I know I shouldn't chase...but I went with Rangers and Astros for a double parlay. I had some beers putting a grill together and said, "do it!" It Cashed!!!

I've been riding my horses around in the yard doing victory laps! Just kidding. I don't own horses, but the story is true!

I know some won't believe, but like Fox Mulder says, "Suck it." Actually he says, "I believe."

Peace to all. Let's get this bread!!! Thanks for posting Pirate.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Yes, my parlay went down in flames yesterday because of the stupid ass Padres. Shouldn't someone be fired? Their budget is way too high to be getting swept by the Rockies. Yet, I knew the Astros were still live. I didn't want to pay the juice on the Astros solo and needed a partner. I went back and looked at your star plays and noticed the Rangers. They were also on my list from my research in the morning. I doubled down...I know I shouldn't chase...but I went with Rangers and Astros for a double parlay. I had some beers putting a grill together and said, "do it!" It Cashed!!!

I've been riding my horses around in the yard doing victory laps! Just kidding. I don't own horses, but the story is true!

I know some won't believe, but like Fox Mulder says, "Suck it." Actually he says, "I believe."

Peace to all. Let's get this bread!!! Thanks for posting Pirate.
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I hope that the usual extraterrestrial forces or
FBI conspiracy don’t stand in your way!
 
Us Carolina guys dont mind UVA too much, they've never been a real threat in Basketball or Football. We only hate Dook and NC State. :) Plus I live in the great State of VA now and live amongst the Cavalier and Hokie Nation all around my neighborhood.

At least Yanks came through for us easily yesterday, lot of close games, and we cashed the other "umpire over" in Philly.

Friday Slate:
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Bodymore Orioles-124
⭐️Brewers-104
⭐️Beantown Red Sux-109
⭐️Filthadelphia Phillies-1.5118
⭐️NY Mess-112
⭐️NY Skanks-1.5-115
⭐️Mistake on the Lake Guardians-116
⭐️Shittsburgh Pirates/CHIRAQ Cubs Over 7-120
⭐️Rocks/Gigantes Over 7-115
Dogwood City Braves-1.5+100
Tigers-133
Cubbies-102
Tampa+158
Rangers-1-110
Royals-1-124
Nasty Nats/Killadelphia Fightin Phillies Over 7-125
Millwacky Brewers/Space City Asstros Over 8-120

Yes, I love making fun of cities and teams to their historical nicknames or pop culture. Having traveled about 250-300 nights a year around the country for over 15 years in consulting & sales, I got to see many of these cities and teams frequently. So dont take offense if you're from that city or team.
 
PirateAlew said:
Us Carolina guys dont mind UVA too much, they've never been a real threat in Basketball or Football. We only hate Dook and NC State. :) Plus I live in the great State of VA now and live amongst the Cavalier and Hokie Nation all around my neighborhood.

At least Yanks came through for us easily yesterday, lot of close games, and we cashed the other "umpire over" in Philly.

Friday Slate:
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Bodymore Orioles-124
⭐️Brewers-104
⭐️Beantown Red Sux-109
⭐️Filthadelphia Phillies-1.5118
⭐️NY Mess-112
⭐️NY Skanks-1.5-115
⭐️Mistake on the Lake Guardians-116
⭐️Shittsburgh Pirates/CHIRAQ Cubs Over 7-120
⭐️Rocks/Gigantes Over 7-115
Dogwood City Braves-1.5+100
Tigers-133
Cubbies-102
Tampa+158
Rangers-1-110
Royals-1-124
Nasty Nats/Killadelphia Fightin Phillies Over 7-125
Millwacky Brewers/Space City Asstros Over 8-120

Yes, I love making fun of cities and teams to their historical nicknames or pop culture. Having traveled about 250-300 nights a year around the country for over 15 years in consulting & sales, I got to see many of these cities and teams frequently. So dont take offense if you're from that city or team.
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Never been a real threat in basketball? Come on. Never? Didn’t we play in an ACC tournament title game? Recall regular season standings battles?
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Slight loss last night of -1.54 Units

Overall

482- 406. +16.26 Units
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Never been a real threat in basketball? Come on. Never? Didn’t we play in an ACC tournament title game? Recall regular season standings battles?
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Yes, UVA Has had some good years, and occassionally sneak up and best the Heels but most carolina people dont hate UVA like Dook and State, UNC's all time bball record against UVA is 134-62. It's been mostly one-sided since 1910. With Duke it's much tighter at 143-117 espcially the Coach K and on years it's been much tighter. So most Rams clubs members I know, pops included, dont mention UVA much when talking about teams they're worried about either losing to, or losing recruits to.
 
^Thank you! Good luck and hope we hit these tonight.

Hit the cubs over easily as Pirates did all themselves, and cubs didnt bring their bats til too late.

The "umpire overs" have been hot the last week. I noticed a couple more that Stood out tonight.
I already liked this over before as games at Mia stadium this year have been going over the total frequently, due to poor pitching, with 8 of the last 9 in Miami having gone over. Tonight behind the plate is Andy Fletcher, whom I've highlighted once before. He's notoriously Hitt-friendly, calling only 61.6% of pitches this year as strikes (Avg is 65ish%). His last game he called, he called a paltry 54.8% pitches strikes. In 9 games as home plate ump this year, He's averaging 13.1 runs in his games (9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26). Notice, Not even one of these games stayed under 8, all went over the posted total for tonight's game. His last game in Miami in early May netted 9 runs, and none of these games have been in Mile High Colorado. I already have enough on Mets to win so this will be a regular play.

NY Mets/Miami Over 7-130

The other game with a progidigously Hitter friendly lean is LAA Vs Texas Rangers, where Adrian Johnson is behind home. In 8 games this year, he's only called 61.9% strikes, his games have hit 71.4% over with an avg of 11.8 runs per game, With only 3 games going under tonight's posted total of 8.5-9 (16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14). None of these games were in Colorado, and in this game with 2 pitchers that are not shut-down Cy young type aces and both with ERA's over 2.9 (Anderson-2.92 and Heaney 4.39), I believe we should see some runs in this game. Both pitchers are going at max about 6 innings, so this will leave plenty of time for the bullpens, which have not been the strength of either team (Texas is 2nd to last in MLB with a Bullpen ERA of 5.05, while LAA is dead last at 5.17. That's right, the 2 worst teams for Bullpen ERA and giving up runs are going tonight. Anderson's last start against the rangers ended in a 9-6 game last year. I could see something similar tonight. This one I like a little more, so I'm making it a top play.

⭐️LAA/Texas Over 9+100

Note: In my 2nd top total tonight from earlier (Rocks/Giants Over), Ryan Blakney has been assigned to be the home plate ump, which makes me happy I am playing that over. In 7 games he's umped this year, 80% have gone over, including all but one going over tonights posted total of 7 (8, 8, 12, 16, 5, 9, 9). His lowest total of 5 was posted in SFO but with Logan Webb pitching that game for Giants, along with Waldron for Padres. Both pitchers are ground ball pitchers, not fly ball heavy so that was more expected. Tonight the rocks are pitching one of the worst in Ryan Feltner with a 5.2 ERA, Who is succeptable to the long ball and big innings. This game also features 2 of the bottom tier Bullpens just like the Rangers/Angels game. Rockies come in 8th from the very bottom at 4.35 ERA and Giants even worse, comiing in 4th from last at 4.90 era. With the way the rockies have been hitting lately, and these bad bullpens with a hitter friendly ump, it makes me glad I played the over this morning.
 
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Another Umpire over cashes with the Mets/Marlins over 7...

Mason Black gets called up from Triple A again to start unexpectedly for the giants. I'll take the dog that's on a good win Streak.

Rockies+124
 
PirateAlew said:
^Thank you! Good luck and hope we hit these tonight.

Hit the cubs over easily as Pirates did all themselves, and cubs didnt bring their bats til too late.

The "umpire overs" have been hot the last week. I noticed a couple more that Stood out tonight.
I already liked this over before as games at Mia stadium this year have been going over the total frequently, due to poor pitching, with 8 of the last 9 in Miami having gone over. Tonight behind the plate is Andy Fletcher, whom I've highlighted once before. He's notoriously Hitt-friendly, calling only 61.6% of pitches this year as strikes (Avg is 65ish%). His last game he called, he called a paltry 54.8% pitches strikes. In 9 games as home plate ump this year, He's averaging 13.1 runs in his games (9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26). Notice, Not even one of these games stayed under 8, all went over the posted total for tonight's game. His last game in Miami in early May netted 9 runs, and none of these games have been in Mile High Colorado. I already have enough on Mets to win so this will be a regular play.

NY Mets/Miami Over 7-130

The other game with a progidigously Hitter friendly lean is LAA Vs Texas Rangers, where Adrian Johnson is behind home. In 8 games this year, he's only called 61.9% strikes, his games have hit 71.4% over with an avg of 11.8 runs per game, With only 3 games going under tonight's posted total of 8.5-9 (16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14). None of these games were in Colorado, and in this game with 2 pitchers that are not shut-down Cy young type aces and both with ERA's over 2.9 (Anderson-2.92 and Heaney 4.39), I believe we should see some runs in this game. Both pitchers are going at max about 6 innings, so this will leave plenty of time for the bullpens, which have not been the strength of either team (Texas is 2nd to last in MLB with a Bullpen ERA of 5.05, while LAA is dead last at 5.17. That's right, the 2 worst teams for Bullpen ERA and giving up runs are going tonight. Anderson's last start against the rangers ended in a 9-6 game last year. I could see something similar tonight. This one I like a little more, so I'm making it a top play.

⭐️LAA/Texas Over 9+100

Note: In my 2nd top total tonight from earlier (Rocks/Giants Over), Ryan Blakney has been assigned to be the home plate ump, which makes me happy I am playing that over. In 7 games he's umped this year, 80% have gone over, including all but one going over tonights posted total of 7 (8, 8, 12, 16, 5, 9, 9). His lowest total of 5 was posted in SFO but with Logan Webb pitching that game for Giants, along with Waldron for Padres. Both pitchers are ground ball pitchers, not fly ball heavy so that was more expected. Tonight the rocks are pitching one of the worst in Ryan Feltner with a 5.2 ERA, Who is succeptable to the long ball and big innings. This game also features 2 of the bottom tier Bullpens just like the Rangers/Angels game. Rockies come in 8th from the very bottom at 4.35 ERA and Giants even worse, comiing in 4th from last at 4.90 era. With the way the rockies have been hitting lately, and these bad bullpens with a hitter friendly ump, it makes me glad I played the over this morning.
Click to expand...

Both of these cashed, now waiting on Giants over. Big night in MLB.
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Gain last night of +8.71 Units 

Overall

495 - 414. +24.97 Units
 
Awesome day to close out the week. 13-8, 7-3 top plays, hit the #1 and hit all the "umpire overs" again. 8-0 this week on the overs with the hitter-friendly umps
502-427 YTD/ (268-199 Top plays)

Back a bit later hopefully, if the Wife doesnt distract me with other stuff and a bday party later apparently I'm being dragged to.
 
Awesome Friday, hope Saturday brings us more good news and positve results.

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐Queens of NY Mess-123 (NYMets)
️⭐️NY Pinstripers-1.5-135 (Yankees, d'oh)
⭐️Chiberia Cubs-1-138
⭐️Murderopolis Twinks-111
⭐️Puritan City Red Sux-108
⭐️Arizona Snakes-139
⭐️Tampons Manta Rays+120 (Tampa Bay Rays)
⭐️Mutt City Asstros-140 (Houston)
⭐️Sunflower Royals-1-128 (kansas City)
⭐️Phillies/Nats Over 7-120
⭐️Anaheim Lost Angels/Texas Lone Rangers OVER 8-120
Killadelphia Fightin Phillies-1-120
San Dog Chaplains+112 (Padres)
LA Doyers-1.5+100
Smaltimore Orioles-103
Fog City Gigantes-1-128 (San Fran)
Texas Strangers-130
NY Mutts/Slorida Fish Over 7-130
Rockies/Gigantes Over 7-130
Detroit/Arizona Over 7.5-110
Tampa/Toronto Over 7-110 (See writeup)

**Found one very hitter-friendly umpire today that would qualify for an over, but addmitedly, the pitching matchup is a bit tougher with 2 really good SP's going. However, the umpire in this game clearly favors hitters with a big strike zone, which will force the pitchers to throw more in the sweet spot over the plate. In Toronto, the home plate Ump is Mark Carlson. His games are 7-2 to the over this year, or 77.8% to the over. His avg ERA for his games is 5.2 (Most umps are in the mid to high 3's). Only 2 of his games this year have gone under today's posted total with 5 and 4 runs in pitcher friendly parks (Tex/SFO); on the year his games avg 11.3 runs partly due to his wide strike zone/causing higher than normal ERA's, more issued walks, and a strike % call this year of only 62%.

His games have resulted in 11, 10, 21, 4, 5, 15, 11, 12, and 13. Notice how many are 10+. None of his games were played in Colorado. That would be 7 games with 10 runs or more and with 2 coming in lower. If the pitching matchup wasn't as strong, I'd love it even more but with this ump, there'a better likelihood of more runs being scored than avg. His last 2 years have produced 55% overs, with an average runs per game of 9.5 over 69 games last 2 years. This isn't just a recent thing, he's always been hitter-friendly. I have this game pegged just over the total at 8 runs, and with some umpiring help, it would push it tonight another run or two over, hopefully.
This isn't the strongest "umpire over" like the last few, as the Starting pitching is a tier above those prior games.
It is also worth mentioning one more factor that should help this total, Toronto's bullpen ERA is the 3rd worst in MLB at .492, While Tampa sits 8th from last at a .440 ERA. Not a top play as I have Tampa to win already.
 
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