Saturday-Fri May 31 Taters, Dingers&Punchouts

10-3 Friday/566-476 YTD/ (302-228 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cubs-132
⭐️Giants+125
⭐️Royals-110
⭐️Cleveland+100
⭐️Astros-1-132
⭐️Mariners-134
⭐️Bodymore Oreos-1.5-138
⭐️Killadelphia Phillies-1.5.-125
⭐️Arizona-1-139
⭐️Yankees-105 (Yanks are hot, Padres are 7-8 against Lefties, YU is great but yanks can hit him)
⭐️Toronto/Detroit Over 7.5-130
Toronto-112
Twins-144
Dodgers-150
Red Sox-125
Royals/Tampons Over 7.5-120
Pirates/Braves Over 9.5-115
Giants/Mutts Over 7.5-115
Miami/Arizona Over 7.5-112
Yanks/Fathers Over 7-135

***1 umpire over so far---Toronto/Detroit with a guy I've played on a few times this year (last tiime went under tnx to marlins not hitting). Mark Ripperger who is 7-2-1 to the over this year, with an average of 9.5 runs this year despite last 3 being low scoring. (5, 8, 3, 9, 10, 7, 17, 17, 9, and 10). Given this guy's track record, I think the low numbers lately are an anomoly. Looking at his last 2 years and 71 games, ghis games hit 55.2% to the over on 64% called strikes and a strikeout to Base on ball ratio of around 2.5 which favors the hitters (3 or more is better for pitchers/4+ is ideal for a pitcher), averaging 9.2 runs per game last 2 years as well. The avg ERA for his games this year is 4.1. Further helping this over are the offenses with Toronto Scoring 5.57 runs their last 7 games and tigers around 5 runs last 7. Jays pitcher Manoah holds a 13.5 ERA on the road, and Matt Manning for the tigers is pitching at a 5.82 ERA at home. The over might have some extra help from the ump to get across the # tonight with favorable pitching.

Let's keep crushin' the books.
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Overall Gain Last night of +7.72 Units

Overall

559 - 463 . +30.65 Units
 
yeah, I still play the over even with pitcher friendly umps if the matchup with lineups and pitching calls for it. It did for the Mets game.

adding:
Pirates+2-135
⭐️Boston/Milwaukee Over 9-130
 
***** Umpire Over 2nd play----Was about to play this over already and then I saw Bruce Dreckman a notoriously pro hitter ump is umpiring this game. He is 88.9% to the over in 9 appearances, a startling 8-1 to the over. 12.9 Runs per game in his 9, and they go like this with most recent first 14, 11, 18, 6, 13, 14, 12, 13, 16. Only one hit under tonight's total.
He's calling 64% strikes, and the ERA for his games is a whopping 6.4! This guy loves the hitters and squeezes pitchers.

⭐️Houston/Oakland Over 8-120
 
Nice 3 day heater in MLB. 14-7 yesterday, hit the top 4 and 8-3 on top plays. 580-483YTD/ (310-231 Top plays)

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cleveland-120
⭐️Braves-144
⭐️Cubs+102
⭐️Yankees+105
⭐️Astros-130
⭐️Royals+106
⭐️Boston-140
⭐️Tigers+102
⭐️LA Dodgers-148
⭐️Giants/Mutts Over 7.5-115 (See writeup)
⭐️Miami/Arizona Over 8.5-130
Texas+121
Arizona-1-120
Giants+110
Phillies-1.5-141
Nationals+2-135
Baltimore/Chicago Over 8-112 (See writeup)
Houston/Oakland Over 8.5-112
Cleveland/LAA Over 7.5-112
Royals/Tampa Over 7.5-114

*2 Umpire Overs---1st is NYM/SF Giants, already had this over circled due to the recent hitting/pitching but now I see CB Bucknor is the home plate ump. He is 6-3 to the over this year, with a 4.2 ERA for his 9 games this year. What really stands out is the avg, 10.2 runs this year, on 64%called strikes, his games have totaled at 12, 2, 11, 6, 8, 16, 7, 17, 13. Only 3 have gone under today's posted total. We might get a little help from CB, not as much as the next game which has an even more hitter friendly ump.

***2nd Umpire Over is Baltimore/Chicago White sox with one of my favorite suspect umpires. Adrian Johnson 7-2-1 to the over in 10 games but what really stands out are 2 stats, 61.8% called strikes (VERY low), and an astronomical 5.6 ERA/ resulting in 11.6 runs per game (over 10 with 10 games is really high!). His games have gone 10, 12, 16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14. None were in colorado and notice his most recent 4 games have been double digit scoring games. The pitching in this game should be really good esp with White sox throwing their stuf Fedde, but hopefully Johnson comes in as normal and makes a real tight strike zone, resulting in more walks and more balls in play for run opportunities as pitchers will be forced to locate over the plate with a smaller zone.

There's a few other slightly hitter friendly umps like Laz Diaz n Tex/Minn with 10 runs per game but calls 65% strikes, but is seeing a 4.6 ERA, and taking in his last 2 years across 62 games, he's only hitting 41% to the over. He doesn't quite fit the criterion nor the others that have been announced so far.
 
***Umpire Over-Seattle/Washington Over 8.5-130. This game features Dan Bellino who is 6-4 to the over this year, with ERA in his games of 4.2, while averaging 10.6 runs per game in his 10 games. They go like this 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. Only 2 games went under the total of today's game of 8.5. He is calling 63% strikes which leans to being more hitter friendly. I am playing this total today.

⭐️Seattle/Washington Over 8.5-130
 
10-10 yesterday but nice to hit my #1 Cleveland again....lets see what Memorial Sunday Brings us..

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-115
⭐️Baltimore-145
⭐️Cleveland-111
⭐️Royals+110
⭐️Red Sox-137
⭐️Cardinals-129
⭐️Toronto-120
⭐️Astros-1-130
⭐️San Fran/NY Mets over 7-130
⭐️Dodgers/Reds Over 8.5-120
Phillies-1.5-140
Arizona-135
Giants-116
Dodgers-1.5-129
Mariners-1-130
Braves-1.5-120
KC/Tampa Over 7.5-112 (See writeup)
Chicago/STL Over 7-120
Cleveland/LAA Over 8-115
Mariners/Nats Over 8.5-115

****1 Over from above-KC/Tampa Over 7.5 has a Hitter-friendly ump, so this is an "umpire over," as we may get more hitter friendly calls. Already like the over for many reasons, including the hitting and pitching in this game (Before Sat, Royals had scored 8 runs or more in 5 straight, and rays have put up 4 or more in 9 of their last 13). The over is 5-3 between these 2 teams but we have a hitter friendly ump in Quinn Wolcott. He is 5-4 to the over this year, with 9 runs avg per game (More than today's total). He is calling a low 63% strikes, with is last 2 games at 60% and 62% respectively, not resulting in 15 runs (in pitcher friendly Sfo and Philly). His 9 games have gone like this 15, 15, 2, 9, 5, 12, 1, 15, 7. The average ERA for his games this year is near 4. His strike-out to walk ratio is a 2.21, which is considered very low and would be bad for a pitcher (ideally 4+, 3+ is considered good).
While his calls dont stand out like some other hitter friendly umps with Double digit runs per game, his history is clear, his last 2 years, he has averaged 56.3% of his games going over across 65 games, with average runs per game of 9 across that period. This total already stood out but this ump definitely won't hurt the total today.
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Overall Loss Last Night of -9.45 Units

Overall

583 - 480. +30.75 Units
 
10-10 last night, i may be looking at something wrong but by your calculations just off top my head i have -3 to -5 units tops using 2 and 1 units as you do, may be looking at something wrong. But whatever your scoreboard says sir. I ended up thanks to Cleveland so I can't complain.
 
PirateAlew said:
10-10 last night, i may be looking at something wrong but by your calculations just off top my head i have -3 to -5 units tops using 2 and 1 units as you do, may be looking at something wrong. But whatever your scoreboard says sir. I ended up thanks to Cleveland so I can't complain.
Click to expand...

How many more times did you bet Cleveland vs. Braves?
 
9-11 Sunday. Yanks screwed what could have been a really good day.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies+101
⭐️Guardians-120
⭐️Blue Jays-1-140
⭐️Brewers-114
⭐️Astros-119
⭐️Dodgers-140
⭐️Reds/Cards Over 9-115
⭐️Royals/Twinks Over 7.5-125
Reds-125
Braves-1-140
Royals+150
Red Sox+142
Astros/Mariners Over 7-135
Phillies/Giants Over 7.5-120
Toronto/Chicago Over 8.5-125
 
***Umpire Over---Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115---Andy Fletcher is working this game, bringing 12.6 Runs per game behind him on 10 appearances this year, 77.8% to the over (7-2-1). This 12.6 runs per game have spread out like this with most recent first 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. Only 2 games came in under today's total with 1 run less at 8, and 2 pushed the 9. He is calling only 61.7% strikes--which is squeezing pitchers in his games, resulting in a 1.89 Strike out to walk ratio (below 2 is Horrible for pitchers). None of these games were in colorado and the ERA for his games is an astronomical 5.9. With temps in the low 80's and a 60+% Humidity, and wind blowing out about 14mph, I like the over a bit more. While the pitching may be above average with good bullpens, these 2 teams can hit in these situations, especially when you have a hitter friendly ump like Fletcher helping the matter.

⭐️Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and the others 1 unit

Overall Loss Last Night of -5.96 Units

Overall

592 - 491. +24.79 Units
 
PirateAlew said:
***Umpire Over---Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115---Andy Fletcher is working this game, bringing 12.6 Runs per game behind him on 10 appearances this year, 77.8% to the over (7-2-1). This 12.6 runs per game have spread out like this with most recent first 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. Only 2 games came in under today's total with 1 run less at 8, and 2 pushed the 9. He is calling only 61.7% strikes--which is squeezing pitchers in his games, resulting in a 1.89 Strike out to walk ratio (below 2 is Horrible for pitchers). None of these games were in colorado and the ERA for his games is an astronomical 5.9. With temps in the low 80's and a 60+% Humidity, and wind blowing out about 14mph, I like the over a bit more. While the pitching may be above average with good bullpens, these 2 teams can hit in these situations, especially when you have a hitter friendly ump like Fletcher helping the matter.

⭐️Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115
Click to expand...
Interesting stuff indeed!
 
***Umpire Over-Guardians/Rockies Over 10.5-130. This one is a little bit riskier obviously with the higher than normal #, however it is in Mile High Colorado where runs can be put up quickly and plentiful. The umpire in this game is Mark Wegner who is 6-3-1 to the over this year for 66.7% and averaging 10 runs per game with 63% called strikes. None of his other games were in Colorado this year, but 4 have come in under today's total. His games go 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. The Strikeout to K ratio is 2.14, which is very bad for pitching. The Average ERA for his games this year is a high 4.6. Over his last 2 years, or 57 games, 56.4% have gone over, and he's averaged 9.8 runs in the games he officates, so he has has been consistently hitter friendly.
Added to this bonus is Gomber is now out for Colorado. In his place is Anthony Molina, making his first careeer start. He's a rule 5 pick up who's seen some action in 9 appearances posting a high 7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP. His longest outing was 3.2 IP so i expect the guardians to attack early, and with their offense, they could put up double digits themselves against Molina and the terrible Colorado Bullpen. Guardians are currently averaging 5 runs per game with 59 Homers, good for 10th in MLB so they should be able to get a couple Dingers today.
 
PirateAlew said:
***Umpire Over-Guardians/Rockies Over 10.5-130. This one is a little bit riskier obviously with the higher than normal #, however it is in Mile High Colorado where runs can be put up quickly and plentiful. The umpire in this game is Mark Wegner who is 6-3-1 to the over this year for 66.7% and averaging 10 runs per game with 63% called strikes. None of his other games were in Colorado this year, but 4 have come in under today's total. His games go 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. The Strikeout to K ratio is 2.14, which is very bad for pitching. The Average ERA for his games this year is a high 4.6. Over his last 2 years, or 57 games, 56.4% have gone over, and he's averaged 9.8 runs in the games he officates, so he has has been consistently hitter friendly.
Added to this bonus is Gomber is now out for Colorado. In his place is Anthony Molina, making his first careeer start. He's a rule 5 pick up who's seen some action in 9 appearances posting a high 7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP. His longest outing was 3.2 IP so i expect the guardians to attack early, and with their offense, they could put up double digits themselves against Molina and the terrible Colorado Bullpen. Guardians are currently averaging 5 runs per game with 59 Homers, good for 10th in MLB so they should be able to get a couple Dingers today.
Click to expand...
Is this over a top play or normal?
 
Regular play. The Orioles over was a top play.

now 21-4 on Umpire over assisted calls. hopefully the guardians over comes in too
 
PirateAlew said:
***Umpire Over---Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115---Andy Fletcher is working this game, bringing 12.6 Runs per game behind him on 10 appearances this year, 77.8% to the over (7-2-1). This 12.6 runs per game have spread out like this with most recent first 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. Only 2 games came in under today's total with 1 run less at 8, and 2 pushed the 9. He is calling only 61.7% strikes--which is squeezing pitchers in his games, resulting in a 1.89 Strike out to walk ratio (below 2 is Horrible for pitchers). None of these games were in colorado and the ERA for his games is an astronomical 5.9. With temps in the low 80's and a 60+% Humidity, and wind blowing out about 14mph, I like the over a bit more. While the pitching may be above average with good bullpens, these 2 teams can hit in these situations, especially when you have a hitter friendly ump like Fletcher helping the matter.

⭐️Boston/Baltimore Over 9-115
Click to expand...
Well done.
 
PirateAlew said:
***Umpire Over-Guardians/Rockies Over 10.5-130. This one is a little bit riskier obviously with the higher than normal #, however it is in Mile High Colorado where runs can be put up quickly and plentiful. The umpire in this game is Mark Wegner who is 6-3-1 to the over this year for 66.7% and averaging 10 runs per game with 63% called strikes. None of his other games were in Colorado this year, but 4 have come in under today's total. His games go 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. The Strikeout to K ratio is 2.14, which is very bad for pitching. The Average ERA for his games this year is a high 4.6. Over his last 2 years, or 57 games, 56.4% have gone over, and he's averaged 9.8 runs in the games he officates, so he has has been consistently hitter friendly.
Added to this bonus is Gomber is now out for Colorado. In his place is Anthony Molina, making his first careeer start. He's a rule 5 pick up who's seen some action in 9 appearances posting a high 7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP. His longest outing was 3.2 IP so i expect the guardians to attack early, and with their offense, they could put up double digits themselves against Molina and the terrible Colorado Bullpen. Guardians are currently averaging 5 runs per game with 59 Homers, good for 10th in MLB so they should be able to get a couple Dingers today.
Click to expand...
Best of luck!

Always appreciate good writeups on the forum. That's what this place was founded on nearly 2 decades ago.
 
PirateAlew said:
***Umpire Over-Guardians/Rockies Over 10.5-130. This one is a little bit riskier obviously with the higher than normal #, however it is in Mile High Colorado where runs can be put up quickly and plentiful. The umpire in this game is Mark Wegner who is 6-3-1 to the over this year for 66.7% and averaging 10 runs per game with 63% called strikes. None of his other games were in Colorado this year, but 4 have come in under today's total. His games go 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. The Strikeout to K ratio is 2.14, which is very bad for pitching. The Average ERA for his games this year is a high 4.6. Over his last 2 years, or 57 games, 56.4% have gone over, and he's averaged 9.8 runs in the games he officates, so he has has been consistently hitter friendly.
Added to this bonus is Gomber is now out for Colorado. In his place is Anthony Molina, making his first careeer start. He's a rule 5 pick up who's seen some action in 9 appearances posting a high 7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP. His longest outing was 3.2 IP so i expect the guardians to attack early, and with their offense, they could put up double digits themselves against Molina and the terrible Colorado Bullpen. Guardians are currently averaging 5 runs per game with 59 Homers, good for 10th in MLB so they should be able to get a couple Dingers today.
Click to expand...
Routine.
 
Thought i had my Padres-1 pick earlier guess i forgot to hit post so i';ll play the RL Live

Padres-1.5-+115 (Live Top 2nd)
 
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Reds-120
⭐️Yankees-1-127
⭐️Baltimore-150
⭐️Tampa-1-103
⭐️Phillies-1.5-110
⭐️Brewers-145
⭐️Guardians-138
⭐️Padres-125
⭐️Royals/Twins Over 7.5-110 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
⭐️Guardians/Rockies Over 10-115 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
⭐️Dodgers/Mets Over 7.5-120 (Game 1)
KC Royals-115
Rangers+106
Dodgers-1.5-105 (Game 1)
Tigers-145
Braves-1.5-118
Mariners-125
Toronto/Chicago Over 7.5-115 (See writeup-Umpire Over)
Phillies/Giants Over 7.5-110
Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5-110
Braves/Nats Over 8-112

***First Umpire Over is KC/Minn Over 7.5. This game features a hot hitting KC team and twins teams that can put up numbers, and with an umpire in Mark Carlson who is 10-2 to the over this year for 80% backed by 11.1 Runs per game (Avg is 8-9). The strike out to K ratio is a flat 2 (Bad for pitchers), on 63% called strikes. The avg ERA for his games is a terrible 5.2, his games have scores 9, 11, 10, 21 (Min vs LAA), 4, 5, 15 (in CLEV!), 11, 12, 13 (in chicago South side). He's had a lot of Double Digit scoring and with these offenses, and a littl help ffrom Mark Carlson this number should go over like last game.

***2nd Umpire Over is Guardians and Rockies Over 10, which we hit yesterday but with a different umpire. This time it's even better than yestday's ump who was Mark Wegner at 6-3 to the over and avg only 10 runs (compared to 12 for today's ump), meanwhile today's ump is Bruce Dreckman, who is 9-1 to the over for 90% this year, with 12.5 Runs per game. 12.5 is insanely high for an ump. He calls just over 64% strikes, and has seen his games go like this 9, 14, 11, 18, 6, 13, 13,12, 13, 16. None were in colorado like today's games. He's only had 2 games out of 10 go under today's total. With the mile high altitude in effect, and guardians and rockies with hot bats and not the best pitching today, and with Dreckman behind the dish makes this an even more attractive over.

***3rd Umpire Over is Toronto/Chicago Over 7.5 with Nick Mahrley who is 6-4 to the over, with 10.2 runs scored per game with 64% called strikes, and a SO/K ratio of 2.5 (Not good for pitchers). The avg ERA for his games is also an awful 5.0 ERA. His games have gone 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. 4 games have technically gone under today's number with 2 by just a smidge at 7. Over his last 2 years, he's averaged 9.2 runs per game on 64% called strikes, with 52% going over. He's not the most hitter friendly ump like the 2 aforementioned above but he should help.
 
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