Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 10 Wed 2024

01:45 PM
931Kansas City Royals - Game #1A. Marsh -R+1½
-172		+122O 8½
-120
932St. Louis Cardinals - Game #1A. Pallante -R+1 Markets-1½
+152		-133U 8½
+100
02:10 PM
911Minnesota Twins - Game #1B. Ober -R-1½
+101		-156O 8
-105
912Chicago White Sox - Game #1E. Fedde -R+1 Markets+1½
-121		+143U 8
-115
05:30 PM
933Minnesota Twins - Game #2P. Lopez -R-1½
-112		-167O 8
-105
934Chicago White Sox - Game #2D. Thorpe -R+1 Markets+1½
-108		+153U 8
-115
06:35 PM
921Chicago CubsS. Imanaga -L+1½
-145		+157O 8
-128
922Baltimore OriolesC. Burnes -R+3 Markets-1½
+125		-171U 8
+108
06:40 PM
913Cleveland GuardiansT. Bibee -R-1½
+113		-148O 7½
-125
914Detroit TigersR. Olson -R+3 Markets+1½
-133		+136U 7½
+105
06:40 PM
923Seattle MarinersB. Miller -R+1½
-182		+123O 7½
-115
924San Diego PadresM. King -R+3 Markets-1½
+162		-134U 7½
-105
06:50 PM
915New York YankeesM. Stroman -R+1½
-210		+100O 8
-115
916Tampa Bay RaysZ. Eflin -R+3 Markets-1½
+180		-110U 8
-105
07:05 PM
901Los Angeles DodgersG. Stone -R+1½
-173		+124O 9
-122
902Philadelphia PhilliesC. Sanchez -L+3 Markets-1½
+153		-135U 9
+102
07:10 PM
903Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1½
-135		+158O 9
-102
904Cincinnati RedsF. Montas -R+3 Markets-1½
+115		-173U 9
-118
07:10 PM
905Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-128		+167O 9
-125
906New York MetsL. Severino -R+3 Markets-1½
+108		-183U 9
+105
07:10 PM
917Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+1½
-130		+162O 9½
-117
918Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+3 Markets-1½
+110		-177U 9½
-103
08:10 PM
907Pittsburgh PiratesM. Perez -L+1½
-157		+138O 8½
-118
908Milwaukee BrewersT. Myers -R+3 Markets-1½
+137		-150U 8½
-102
08:10 PM
927Miami MarlinsB. Hoeing -R+1½
+102		+226O 8
-107
928Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L+3 Markets-1½
-122		-255U 8
-113
09:38 PM
919Texas RangersM. Lorenzen -R-1½
+109		-138O 9
-110
920Los Angeles AngelsG. Canning -R+3 Markets+1½
-129		+127U 9
-110
09:45 PM
929Toronto Blue JaysC. Bassitt -R+1½
-175		+133O 7
-115
930San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R+3 Markets-1½
+155		-145U 7
-105
 
Last edited:
KJ said:
All this first inning talks has me thinking I'm 20 years younger and on a coke binge

Instant gratification ftw!
Click to expand...
LOL yeah.. but it's not even for that. It's become evident we're kinda silly thinking we can handicap the amount of different outcomes when it comes to all the inconsistencies in the MLB, whether it be with an umpire, bad fielding, fluke hits, there's just a billion things that make it futile to bet a full game. Betting on just one inning narrows the risk profile to such a degree, where I actually feel like I have an advantage in the current market, ESPECIALLY with how much of an advantage pitchers have, and propensity of umpires to keep games moving.
 
peelpub94 said:
LOL yeah.. but it's not even for that. It's become evident we're kinda silly thinking we can handicap the amount of different outcomes when it comes to all the inconsistencies in the MLB, whether it be with an umpire, bad fielding, fluke hits, there's just a billion things that make it futile to bet a full game. Betting on just one inning narrows the risk profile to such a degree, where I actually feel like I have an advantage in the current market, ESPECIALLY with how much of an advantage pitchers have, and propensity of umpires to keep games moving.
Click to expand...
I prefer first 5 if I'm betting on a pitcher

But if I'm betting on a team that's hot or simply better, I prefer the full game

First inning gets so flukey it rarely makes sense to me but if it's working, don't try to fix it for sure
 
I mean even going to a game I don't really care if I miss the first inning lol
 
Prices have been ranging from -115 through -140 on NRFI. That's a range of 53% - 56% implied probability. The way we've been tracking so far, these bets appear to be hitting at a much higher rate, when you find the right combo of factors.
 
peelpub94 said:
Prices have been ranging from -115 through -140 on NRFI. That's a range of 53% - 56% implied probability. The way we've been tracking so far, these bets appear to be hitting at a much higher rate, when you find the right combo of factors.
Click to expand...
Oh it's 5am and I'm still stuck on tennis and soccer right now
 
I am going to play the Cubs/Balt in some capacity:

- thinking Cubs ff is worth a shot since Balt hasn’t faced Imanaga and the Cubs certainly have seen Burnes (not like they have been all that great against him though)

- ff under 4.5 sounds good too although it’s juicy. Might rather play it at 4.
 
KJ said:
Going to Coors one day next weekend, not sure which yet but looking forward to it
Click to expand...
Have a great time here in Denver, KJ. Saw your post regarding the visit but unfortunately don't have any recommendations for you and parents. We're a family of four and most events are with family and/or typical family stuff. Don't suppose you'll be golfing in Denver but if you decide you want to get out, hit me up, I might try to sneak out next Thursday/Friday (early AM).
 
laopadak said:
Have a great time here in Denver, KJ. Saw your post regarding the visit but unfortunately don't have any recommendations for you and parents. We're a family of four and most events are with family and/or typical family stuff. Don't suppose you'll be golfing in Denver but if you decide you want to get out, hit me up, I might try to sneak out next Thursday/Friday (early AM).
Click to expand...
Just mom, thus the switch to Denver from Chicago. She turns 75 on Thursday so flying in that morning and doing dinner that night. She's big into birds/wildlife so one day will be in the mountains, I likely will need a gummy or two that day lol. Other than that it's wide open. Last time I actually stayed in Denver was Freshman year of college in 1994 for Spring Break, learned to ski on that trip and went back to Dillon a couple times. No golf, just a quick beat the heat kinda trip.
 
Looking at St Louis/KC NRFI but have not pulled trigger yet. KC 14th and St Louis 25th. But more importantly St Louis 80 percent NRFI at home and KC 79 percent on road. Going to go back and look at pitchers last 3 starts each
 
KJ said:
Just mom, thus the switch to Denver from Chicago. She turns 75 on Thursday so flying in that morning and doing dinner that night. She's big into birds/wildlife so one day will be in the mountains, I likely will need a gummy or two that day lol. Other than that it's wide open. Last time I actually stayed in Denver was Freshman year of college in 1994 for Spring Break, learned to ski on that trip and went back to Dillon a couple times. No golf, just a quick beat the heat kinda trip.
Click to expand...
Good for you to spend time with mom, we're all getting older and need to appreciate the time we have left with our parents. Gonna be hot in the city so day trips to higher altitude will be nice break. Gummies and a nice hike or outside with mountain views is an excellent choice.
 
Severino YRFI 4x out of 17 starts.

Corbin YRFI 2x out of 18 starts. And has not given up a run in the first inning in 12 straight starts, including the last time he faced NYM (June 5) and got shelled.
 
No disrespect here (I don’t care what other people bet) but the first inning outcome bets seem like they would be too random to give you a true edge. Maybe I’m wrong but I would need to see a big sample size before I would begin to consider it. First five is a little different because it’s more of a starting pitcher isolation bet in my mind.
 
  • Love
Reactions: KJ
Marsski said:
No disrespect here (I don’t care what other people bet) but the first inning outcome bets seem like they would be too random to give you a true edge. Maybe I’m wrong but I would need to see a big sample size before I would begin to consider it. First five is a little different because it’s more of a starting pitcher isolation bet in my mind.
Click to expand...
Don't disagree - we're still new at this but I can certainly say it isolates risk a hell of a lot better than 5 innings going around the order 2-3x, or the full game.
 
When there are umpires out there calling games with a 85% true strike rate, how am I supposed to handicap that game, even in a F5 format?
 
peelpub94 said:
When there are umpires out there calling games with a 85% true strike rate, how am I supposed to handicap that game, even in a F5 format?
Click to expand...
I generally don’t take umps into account when betting. Except for one man and you know who that is.
I figure the strike zone is the same for both guys and the pitchers adjust pretty quick.
 
Marsski said:
Its not that bad but it is definitely noticeable
Click to expand...
It's entertaining. Been to a couple games where he was behind the plate and didn't even look it up beforehand but when I heard it announced I went straight phone nerd with the betting
 
KJ said:
It's entertaining. Been to a couple games where he was behind the plate and didn't even look it up beforehand but when I heard it announced I went straight phone nerd with the betting
Click to expand...
I had good ass seats at Wrigley once behind the plate. I saw it was Eddings and I was riding his ass hard when did his usual ringing people up on shit off the plate. The fans were dying and he even took his mask off between innings and kind of looked back at me with a grin. I got the sense he knows.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: KJ
Marsski said:
I had good ass seats at Wrigley once behind the plate. I saw it was Eddings and I was riding his ass hard when did his usual ringing people up on shit off the plate. The fans were dying and he even took his mask off between innings and kind of looked back at me with a grin. I got the sense he knows.
Click to expand...
He's likely a member here
 
I used to think CKR was Doug Eddings but actually saw a side by side and it's not close
 
TheDodgers said:
Looking at St Louis/KC NRFI but have not pulled trigger yet. KC 14th and St Louis 25th. But more importantly St Louis 80 percent NRFI at home and KC 79 percent on road. Going to go back and look at pitchers last 3 starts each
Click to expand...
Marsh has given up a run in the 1st inning 3 out of his last 4 starts. TB, CLE, @OAK

Pallante NRFI 7 out of 8 starts.
 
Last edited:
Marsski said:
No disrespect here (I don’t care what other people bet) but the first inning outcome bets seem like they would be too random to give you a true edge. Maybe I’m wrong but I would need to see a big sample size before I would begin to consider it. First five is a little different because it’s more of a starting pitcher isolation bet in my mind.
Click to expand...
Agree totally
 
I am taking my chances on the NRFI with KC/St Louis. Day game, hoping Pallante sticks to form, also hoping Marsh doesn't shit his pants first inning.
Jimenez behind the plate at 70% under so maybe he moves it along with double header in play.
 
PitcherGERA
Reese Olson
17​
0​
Reynaldo López
16​
0​
Reid Detmers
12​
0​
David Peterson
7​
0​
DJ Herz
7​
0​
Hogan Harris
7​
0​
Spencer Schwellenbach
7​
0​

Other notables so far:
Ryne Nelson
16​
0.61​
Ben Lively
14​
0.64​
Martín Pérez
13​
0.69​
Ryan Weathers
13​
0.69​
Slade Cecconi
12​
0.75​
Yu Darvish
11​
0.82​
Michael King
18​
1​
Tanner Houck
18​
1​
Zack Wheeler
18​
1​
Erik Miller
9​
1​
Sean Manaea
17​
1.06​
Bryan Woo
8​
1.13​
Kyle Bradish
8​
1.13​
Christian Scott
7​
1.29​
Justin Steele
13​
1.38​
Garrett Crochet
19​
1.42​
Seth Lugo
19​
1.42​
Brady Singer
18​
1.5​
Luis Gil
18​
1.5​
MacKenzie Gore
18​
1.5​
Tarik Skubal
18​
1.5​
Hayden Wesneski
6​
1.5​
Jordan Wicks
6​
1.5​
Cristopher Sánchez
17​
1.59​
Luis Severino
17​
1.59​


sports.betmgm.com

NRFI/YRFI Stats & Records: First-Inning Runs for MLB Teams & Pitchers

Updated records and stats for NRFI (no runs first inning) and YRFI (yes runs first inning) bets.
sports.betmgm.com sports.betmgm.com
 
NRFI Home Leaders:
TeamHome
Mariners35-13
White Sox33-13
Mets32-15
Nationals31-13
Rays29-20
Cubs29-17
Reds28-20
Pirates28-18
Blue Jays28-17
Rangers28-17
Giants26-19
Phillies25-23
Athletics25-22
Angels25-21
Cardinals25-17
Padres24-26
Diamondbacks24-21
Yankees24-20
Tigers23-20
Marlins22-27
Royals22-27
Orioles22-25
Red Sox22-22
Brewers22-19
Dodgers21-26
Twins21-24
Astros21-23
Braves20-26
Guardians19-22
Rockies18-29
 
NRFI Away Leaders:
TeamAway
Nationals33-15
Pirates33-12
Orioles31-13
Royals31-12
Blue Jays29-17
Braves29-15
Brewers28-23
Guardians28-21
Cubs28-18
Cardinals27-21
White Sox27-20
Giants26-21
Tigers25-24
Angels25-20
Reds25-19
Red Sox24-22
Marlins24-18
Diamondbacks23-24
Astros23-24
Mariners23-22
Mets23-20
Phillies23-20
Twins22-24
Dodgers22-23
Rockies22-23
Athletics21-25
Rangers20-27
Padres20-25
Yankees19-30
Rays18-24
 
NRFI Overall Leaders:
TeamNRFI Record
Nationals64-28
Pirates61-30
White Sox60-33
Mariners58-35
Cubs57-35
Blue Jays57-34
Mets55-35
Reds53-39
Royals53-39
Orioles53-38
Giants52-40
Cardinals52-38
Brewers50-42
Angels50-41
Braves49-41
Rangers48-44
Tigers48-44
Phillies48-43
Diamondbacks47-45
Rays47-44
Guardians47-43
Athletics46-47
Marlins46-45
Red Sox46-44
Padres44-51
Astros44-47
Yankees43-50
Dodgers43-49
Twins43-48
Rockies40-52
 
I think what helps us in STL is that let's say even if one of the top 3 gets on for the Cards, Goldschmidt has been awful all year, especially against righties, slashing .159/.266/.207 w/ RISP

Cards entire line up has not seen Marsh yet.
 
peelpub94 said:
I think what helps us in STL is that let's say even if one of the top 3 gets on for the Cards, Goldschmidt has been awful all year, especially against righties, slashing .159/.266/.207 w/ RISP

Cards entire line up has not seen Marsh yet.
Click to expand...

Are you playing the NR in STL?
 
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