Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
These could be up anywhere from the early afternoon to later tonight, so I'll get this started now.

I'll have my projections (even though I tend to suck at them) up in a bit,
 
Ok, going to take a shot at this - please correct any of my horrendous numbers:

UNC/Rutgers - 51
Kansas/USF - 55
Navy/Duke - 58.5
Rice/Vanderbilt - 54 (no idea here - contrasting styles)
Auburn/Miss St - 40
Ball St./Akron - 60
Toledo/EMU - 48
Nevada/Missouri - 66.5
SMU/Texas Tech - 69
New Mexico St./Nebraska - 64 (NMSU's 1st game)
UCLA/BYU - 46
Oregon/Purdue - 64.5
Arkansas/Texas - 58
Georgia/South Carolina - 48
Air Force/Houston - 58 (Clueless here as well, but interested to see the number)
Hawaii/Oregon St. - 63
Wisconsin/Fresno St. - 49
Penn St./Syracuse - 59
Michigan/ND - 36.5
Iowa St./Iowa - 44
GT/Va. Tech - 39.5
NC State/Clemson - 49 (No idea)
Western Michigan/Idaho - 52
Central Mich/Ohio - 51
California/Maryland - 47
Wash St./Baylor - 43.5
Stanford/TCU - 41.5
Temple/Buffalo - 52
UAB/Tennessee - 62
East Carolina/Tulane - 40
Memphis/Marshall - 63
Virginia/UConn - 39
Oklahoma/Washington - 59.5
Ohio St./USC - 47 (?)
Arizona/New Mexico - 59
Bowling Green/Boise St. - 63.5
Utah/Utah St. - 55
SDSU/SJSU - 48
UNLV/Arizona St. - 57
Florida Atlantic/Michigan St. - 60
WKU/Alabama - 53
USM/Arky St. - 57 (Interested to see this one as well)
Middle Tenn St./Kentucky - 49
UL Lafayette/Illinois - 62
N. Texas/LSU - 64
 
ball st/akron looks a little high to me...as does penn st/akron...and cmu/ohio looks a little low; but who knows, i'm far from the best at projecting totals
 
broadwayjoe said:
ball st/akron looks a little high to me...as does penn st/akron...and cmu/ohio looks a little low; but who knows, i'm far from the best at projecting totals
Click to expand...

You are probably right about CMU/Ohio - probably a couple points higher.

BSU/Akron comes from the fact that Akron has seemingly adopted a bit more of a spread look this season, and it was fairly effectively in their first two contests.

PSU/Syracuse is simply because PSU is going to score. With 59, I'm projecting out 43-16 with the spread. Syracuse will struglle to get that, but they could if they get the garbage opportunities.
 
Looking at the projections, I would be on:

Hawaii/Oregon St Under 63 (Hawaii has a decent defense, neither team has a great offense)

Navy/Duke Over 58.5 (Cant really see either team stopping the other team's offense)

Air Force/Houston Over 58 (Same thing as Navy/Duke)

PSU/Syracuse, I think you got it right, though I think the total comes out much lower, I will probably be on the Over here

Arizona/NM Under 59, NM has 0 offense, and Arizona probably stays in the high 30s/low 40s on the road

N.Texas/LSU Under 64, Big weather concern here, LSU probably wont keep laying the wood in a downpour and risk injury, dont expect N Texas to put more than 14 points on the board.
 
Thanks mets - appreciate the input.

I should point out that I didn't take weather into much consideration with these numbers. You should while betting it, but I didn't want to adjust a total by 3-4 points now based on predicted weather on Saturday.
 
I'm going to start seriously looking for these to come out at around 3:30 PM EST. Could be a while later then that, but we'll see.
 
vegaskyle said:
unlv/azst number is too high there i think.

just throwing in the unlv perspective
Click to expand...

I agree VK since the number was low 40s at Utah. Think its 55 at the highest probably 52 though ....based on 38-14 projection type outcome but I am just guessing ...:cheers:
 
Great work D . Probably not worth commenting on since they could be out shortly and I am still researching CFB....

Would say I think UNC @ Rutgers would be higher then 51 but Olympic has 47.5 ..? and kansas slightly lower then 55 say 51-53...

Thats all ...nice to have some references though
 
Yep, here is what I have so far:

EMU/Toledo UNDER 58 (2u)
Temp/Buff OVER 41.5 (1.5u)
UNC/Rutgers OVER 43.5 (1.5u)
PSU/Cuse OVer 50.5 (1u)

Whiffed on the CMU over and the Hawaii over.
 
seems a lot lower numbers on average than last few weeks. might be an over week barring weather
 
i think it has the potential to be a high scoring game...offenses matchup pretty well to each other imo...
 
when a book has the ohiostate/usc game at usc -1o and it gets bet up to -11 and then opens the total at 44 and it starts getting pounded down ... it tells you what people expect out of tosu offense.
 
actually i thought people were betting that one down and that most of the money was coming in on OSU

i got OSU +10 now
 
DM- since you werent around much this weekend....

dude i am still kicking myself for not hitting MTSU ML

we hit that one on the head discussing it all week and did not get paid off
 
Ok, from memory (open-current):

UNC/Rutgers: 43.5-44
Kansas/USF: OFF
Navy/Duke: OFF
Rice/Vandy: OFF
Auburn/Miss St.: OFF
BSU/Akron: ?-57
Toledo/EMU: 58-57 - someone will have to explain this one to me.
Nevada/Mizzou: 68-68
SMU/TT: OFF
NMSU/Nebraska: 56.5-58
UCLA/BYU: 45-44.5
Oregon/Purdue: 60-60
Arky/Texas: OFF
UGA/South Car.: OFF
AF/Houston: 54.5-53
Hawaii/Oregon St.: 51 (and I stared at it like an idiot)-56
Wisky/Fresno: 51.5-51 (I think)
PSU/Cuse: 50.5-51
Mich/ND: 37-35.5
Iowa St./Iowa: 48-47
GT/VT: OFF
NCSU/Clemson: OFF
WMU/Idaho: 57-57
CMU/Ohio: 47-50.5
Cal/Maryland: 51-48
Wash St/Baylor: OFF (was posted as 46, then went to 44.5 before being pulled)
Stanford/TCU: OFF (was posted as 48 and was pulled in less than 10 seconds)
Temple/Buffalo: 43.5-42 (I tried to bet O43.5 and was notified that it went down)
Memphis-Marshall: 58-58.5
UVA/UConn: 37-35.5 (I think)
Oklahoma/Washington: 60.5-60.5
OSU/USC: 44-43
Arizona/NM: 49-47.5
BG/Boise: 59.5-59.5
Utah/Utah St.: 47-49
SDSU/SJSU: ? (I want to say 44)-43
UNLV/Zona St.: 51-51
FAU/Michigan St: 60-62.5 (I find very strange that they open EMU/Mich St. at 61 last week, and then open this below that opening number)
WKU/Bama: 42.5-41 (I think)
USM/Arky St.: 50.5-49.5
MTSU/UK: 42-41.5 (I think)
ULL/Illinois: 64-66.5
UNT/LSU: 61-58.5

Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of these.
 
CapTwo said:
DM- since you werent around much this weekend....

dude i am still kicking myself for not hitting MTSU ML

we hit that one on the head discussing it all week and did not get paid off
Click to expand...

At least you hit the spread - damn Bob scared me away. That's a problem with me. If I don't get the best number I'll convince myself off of a good play.

Been meaning to congratulate on that one since you were the first I saw bring the game up. Great call there.
 
broadwayjoe said:
i think it has the potential to be a high scoring game...offenses matchup pretty well to each other imo...
Click to expand...

I agree - but its tough after watching Idaho these two weeks and expect them to produce a bunch (especially with a potentially hobbled Jackson). I mean Enderle could only manage 170 against Idaho St., and half of that came of the game's opening play.
 
CapTwo said:
actually i thought people were betting that one down and that most of the money was coming in on OSU

i got OSU +10 now
Click to expand...


yup it is being bet back down .. i dont see 11 like a while ago.. opened -9 i think though.
 
Not sure what the deal is with all of these gaps on the board.

Some of them are pretty simple numbers to put out as well. Weather probably has something to do with it, but it is still strange considering that opened other games that are played in a similar area and time.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Not sure what the deal is with all of these gaps on the board.

Some of them are pretty simple numbers to put out as well. Weather probably has something to do with it, but it is still strange considering that opened other games that are played in a similar area and time.
Click to expand...


yeah the texas based games are tough for them to line .. but dont understand the other gaps
 
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