Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Tuesday is here!

The board is rolling, time to piece together some more winners!!



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i think cards are gonna struggle to hit Springs, the only thing i'll keep bringing up till we see proof are they bringing springs back to soon? he blew his elbow out playing last season early in year right? just felt like he back quicker than most TJ guys. maybe i'm stoned or just have dates all mixed up, im good bout doing that! lol. if im right tho it feels early! he wasn't very sharp vs fish who one the few teams who hit lhp worse than cards! so really just comes down to whether he ready to be back?

maybe check out his velo, spin rate, how much break, all that good stuff from his 1st start, if those seem to be match up w prior to injury than i say he stones cards for 5 innings., he should be allowed to throw 80-90 pitches if he in fact right.

sonny gray should tear up this rays lineup if he really fixed his issue, said he knew what the problem was before last start and he pitched like he's paid to! so 2 guys if we believe they right should have high k's and this shouldn't see more than 3 total thru 5. unfortunately we have one more hot as balls day in stl before heat breaks and we have some nice looking weather after 2marro. it was just as hot today even worse cause it was played so early, didn't stop manea from punking cards lineyup!
 
Total 5.5 at Wrigley is that right? Holy shit, had to bet it already at o-120 and if it isn't canceled tomorrow by first pitch I will be looking for any sign of life in the first 2 innings for a middle. Those two pitchers can completely shut down each others' teams but 5.5 implies gale force winds
 
Padres/Mariners parlay also, get Cease and Castillo against teams that don't exactly light up the scoreboard. Might do it first five as well but I don't mind going against Pitt or Detroit pens either if the offenses can't get going.
 
im super curious how cease looks off the no no but i can't lie, he seems to have become a much better pitcher than i ever thought he was. stuff never been a question but everything else i wasn't sure about. he has been super dominant his last 4 or so starts, he faced atl (i know ain't the normal braves but still not total scrubs) and cle in that stretch. most efficient i've ever seen him for this long a period. i assume he keeps it up vs pirates lineup, gotta think he holds them to 1 or less thru 5. not sure i buy the pirates offense we seen playing zona a lot recently, this def be best stuff they have faced in a minute.
 
KJ said:
Total 5.5 at Wrigley is that right? Holy shit, had to bet it already at o-120 and if it isn't canceled tomorrow by first pitch I will be looking for any sign of life in the first 2 innings for a middle. Those two pitchers can completely shut down each others' teams but 5.5 implies gale force winds
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damn, i hadn't seen it yet, i was thinking it be low considering wind same and what we saw tonight out of a gas can and young buck! i bet i play scrubbies ff over, i dont think pablo scares me, i used to like him a lot more! he fine but he ain't that dude i thought he could be.
 
KJ said:
Padres/Mariners parlay also, get Cease and Castillo against teams that don't exactly light up the scoreboard. Might do it first five as well but I don't mind going against Pitt or Detroit pens either if the offenses can't get going.
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not a horrible idea. def wanted to find a way to be on seattle in some fashion but the price freaked me out! i like tigers to much for that number but they also have sprouted issues, traded flaherty, best hitter on IL, watching/following lot of houston and rangers lately im gettting super high on seattle, of course that was bound to happen when they got my guy arozarena, he a culture changer! dk doesn't let me do h,r,rbi in sgp or id prob do his over (assuming it 1.5) w seattle ml. i don't like doing the total bases that they do allow, might be ok but imo h,r,rbi almost always the better way to go. i could go for pads/sea just as easily. i have bunch of stuff to look at still, might prefer pit ff tt un if price right opposed to laying the ml. havnt started thinking bout other ways to attack seattle yet,
 
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im not tired but my eyes are so don't think i can do much capping till morning, just spitting out things i wanna make sure to look at so i don't forget, lol.
 
i guess i cant say a bloop and blast if wind really that nuts but walk, single, double in gap isn't the most unlikely thing over 5 innings! a lot of pablo runs and games he given up more, home runs seem to be a pretty big factor, every now and then he has a game with little walk issue and can give up a few like that. if it that damn windy the ball just ain't leaving yard i'd bet it windy enough to effect lopez comfort on the mound. it gonna be kinda chilly also. i bet pablo don't like that, ill look tho.
 
i dunno what the hell happened to gore this past month? i know he has consistency issues but i always liked the potential til recently. cards have knocked him around twice and they been one the worst lhp hitting teams in baseball! normally i'd say corbin just fanned 6 gore should strike out a bunch. not sure i can back him at 6.5 even with the +105 the way he has pitched lately? month ago i'd have bet this right away.
 
KJ said:
Phils ML against aging Kershaw, at least first 5. Maybe over is the better way to play it, possibly in various ways. FF, ff tts, fg tts, etc
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i been kinda low on sanchez since asb, just didn't think he could continue the way he was. so far that been accurate but i instantly thought philly one way or another. i'll prob look closer at his recent starts but if i don't like him vs lad (maybe i will) then i prob look
at phi ff or game total. i might end up liking sanchez here, not like i thought he just get killed all second half, just expected some decline. he was big game type guy in playoffs, maybe he get up for this one.
 
@KJ gotta look at lodolo ov 5.5 k's i've avoided him, even faded lately but gotta think if he can't get it done here there a real problem. i still want to believe and if he was pitching like he capable we would never see this number, just a question of why he has struggled? if his underlying stuff says he still same guy just missing location or whatever it may be then i say we pull trigger.
 
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don't tbink want any angels involved in yanks overs. i'd expect Gil to go 6+ and dominate, don't see k prop for him yet, i'm sure it be high. just roll with w yanks tt ov?
 
KJ said:
Total 5.5 at Wrigley is that right? Holy shit, had to bet it already at o-120 and if it isn't canceled tomorrow by first pitch I will be looking for any sign of life in the first 2 innings for a middle. Those two pitchers can completely shut down each others' teams but 5.5 implies gale force winds
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That's crazy low. NRFI -170


Going to play NRFI Twins/Cubs-170. Crazy juice but I am in.
 
TheDodgers said:
That's crazy low. NRFI -170


Going to play NRFI Twins/Cubs-170. Crazy juice but I am in.
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i really think it worth looking at how lopez has pitched early season in minny when it was much cooler, high winds and 60 prob feels chilly for him im wondering if it will effect him?
 
Had a good one yesterday with my largest plays, let's try again, Big on Giants (and over with giants TT), Cleveland (and over), Padres-1, Houston (+Over), Doyers over, Cubs, Balty (+over +O's TT), Yanks-1 (+Over) (F5), Brew Crew+120, Oakland (+over+A's TT Over), Mariners-1, Boston+121 (+Over). Also have the reds, tampa, and Doyers again beating the hapless Filthadelphia Phils tonight. Waiting on umpire assignments before i go big on any totals yet, still on fence with cubs over as the wind is blowing in 20 mph from left and Shota is a flyball pitcher. GL all.
 
Quick tip:

If you don't know that Bellino has been one of the best under umps over the last decade you need to do a bit more research before you "wait for umpire assignments"

Can't take any of that serious at this point.
 
KJ said:
Quick tip:

If you don't know that Bellino has been one of the best under umps over the last decade you need to do a bit more research before you "wait for umpire assignments"

Can't take any of that serious at this point.
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Yes, I know Bellino was historically an under ump 2018 and before. But that hasnt been the case the last 6-7 years as this year, he's 12-9 over, on 10.27 runs, last year he was 23-13 over on over 10 runs and a low 2.2 SO/BB ratio, 2022 much the same-18-11 Over on 9.2 runs, 2021 was the last year he was a good under ump at 20-14 under. Not sure what happened to him the last few years but he's been a decent over ump with good metrics supporting runs.
What game did you see Bellino was announced as the ump tonight? I am not seeing any announced yet. Thank you.
 
PirateAlew said:
Yes, I know Bellino was historically an under ump 2018 and before. But that hasnt been the case the last 6-7 years as this year, he's 12-9 over, on 10.27 runs, last year he was 23-13 over on over 10 runs and a low 2.2 SO/BB ratio, 2022 much the same-18-11 Over on 9.2 runs, 2021 was the last year he was a good under ump at 20-14 under. Not sure what happened to him the last few years but he's been a decent over ump with good metrics supporting runs.
What game did you see Bellino was announced as the ump tonight? I am not seeing any announced yet. Thank you.
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If you are using o/u stats good luck to you. Pretty bad day for that the last couple days. Hope it gets better for you.

You used Bellino as a reason to bet over on Sunday. Pretty poor decision in my book but my book isn't nearly as large as yours apparently. I know it stayed under in that game but hope it turns around for you!
 
KJ said:
If you are using o/u stats good luck to you. Pretty bad day for that the last couple days. Hope it gets better for you.

You used Bellino as a reason to bet over on Sunday. Pretty poor decision in my book but my book isn't nearly as large as yours apparently. I know it stayed under in that game but hope it turns around for you!
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ha! thanks, totals actually have been real good the last 10-11 days or so. The umpire over calls are 27-8 just this week, was 23-4 before sunday, so I'd call that a success and the umpire metrics by and large have paid off, hit 2-1 again last night. If I could turn it around even better at over 80% win rate, that would be awesome, so thank you for the encouragement. Yes, Dan's last game in Oak went under, he had gone over in the the 3 previous. games. His strike zone has obviously changed the last 6 years or so.
 
Complete fade of Snakes tonight, Rodiguez first start since last season and now no Moreno behind the plate. Might be best to just play Cleveland tt over first five because that could be an ugly broken battery. Snakes will likely hit Lively I guess so good way to eliminate that part of the equation.
 
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PirateAlew said:
ha! thanks, totals actually have been real good the last 10-11 days or so. The umpire over calls are 27-8 just this week, was 23-4 before sunday, so I'd call that a success and the umpire metrics by and large have paid off, hit 2-1 again last night. If I could turn it around even better at over 80% win rate, that would be awesome, so thank you for the encouragement. Yes, Dan's last game in Oak went under, he had gone over in the the 3 previous. games. His strike zone has obviously changed the last 6 years or so.
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Again, good luck to you. I encourage you to actually watch these guys and their strike zones before you bet anything meaningful on them. His zone hasn't changed lol.
 
I think White Sox live tonight. o4.5 tt is +155 too

I actually played the team on a 20 game losing streak. First five +168 Game +180 almost played -1.5/+240 but decided to press my luck only so far, didnt play their tt but they should hit Stripling
 
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Never do the SGPs but 25% boosts are intriguing if you can sort of take a correlated take.

Yankees to score first
1st 3 -.5
1st 5 -1.5
1st 7 -1.5
Game -2.5
TTO Over 5.5

+412

If they score 6 or 7 you’d think this would be good.
 
Inspekdah said:
Never do the SGPs but 25% boosts are intriguing if you can sort of take a correlated take.

Yankees to score first
1st 3 -.5
1st 5 -1.5
1st 7 -1.5
Game -2.5
TTO Over 5.5

+412

If they score 6 or 7 you’d think this would be good.
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I like it. I often play win ff/game.
 
This france-canada bball game is good, i have france +8.5, couldnt believe oddsmakers had the home team+wemby that big a dog, have USA to win soccer women's and USA/Brazil mbb under 186. I enjoy watching the team sports more than the individual events.
 
Inspekdah said:
Never do the SGPs but 25% boosts are intriguing if you can sort of take a correlated take.

Yankees to score first
1st 3 -.5
1st 5 -1.5
1st 7 -1.5
Game -2.5
TTO Over 5.5

+412

If they score 6 or 7 you’d think this would be good.
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they would be but dk punk asses always cap my boost at 10 max bet! i was killing them even when they let me do 50 and 25, 10 i gotta put so many plays in it to care bout payout i usually don't even fuck with. some days i'll donate my 10 and try 7-8-9 teams but just don't work, lol. think they usually make ya take 4 plays now to. the boost used to be higher so 2-3 teamers on 50 or even 25 raised payouts quite a bit. didn't take long till they cut my max bet on those or even the "risk free" bets down to $10. pussies, lol

i like the idea w yanks tho, id prob throw some hitter props in, gil k prop also! gotta make it really big with 10 max bet! lol
 
jumper12 said:
I also like the race to 3 runs for WS. Haha I might need to go for a long bike ride get my head together
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in theory i'm with ya. i've never liked stripling, the thought of that clown being -200ish is baffling to me but fuck, 21 in a row and so many by big margins it hard for me to put my money on them! my normal stance when it comes to good or bad streaks in baseball is once they get past 9 i usually don't bet against until it ends, then i often like to take the team who snaps losing streak or fade team that lost winning streak the day after it ends. not like a concrete rule or anything, obviously capping still involved i just really don't like fucking w streaks in baseball unless i was lucky enough to be playing the right side of it and just ride it till it loses! not like i been fading cws daily so im sure as shit not laying it with a's tonight but don't think i could actually play chisox either.
 
KJ said:
Quick tip:

If you don't know that Bellino has been one of the best under umps over the last decade you need to do a bit more research before you "wait for umpire assignments"

Can't take any of that serious at this point.
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Agreed. Alot more goes into a total then just an Umpire assignment
 
PirateAlew said:
ha! thanks, totals actually have been real good the last 10-11 days or so. The umpire over calls are 27-8 just this week, was 23-4 before sunday, so I'd call that a success and the umpire metrics by and large have paid off, hit 2-1 again last night. If I could turn it around even better at over 80% win rate, that would be awesome, so thank you for the encouragement. Yes, Dan's last game in Oak went under, he had gone over in the the 3 previous. games. His strike zone has obviously changed the last 6 years or so.
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What is your totals record again for the entire season? TIA.
 
PirateAlew said:
This france-canada bball game is good, i have france +8.5, couldnt believe oddsmakers had the home team+wemby that big a dog, have USA to win soccer women's and USA/Brazil mbb under 186. I enjoy watching the team sports more than the individual events.
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Where in the world did you get 186?
 
basically if best play i can find involves betting a's w stripling at huge number or playing a team that lost 21 straight think im taking that day off! lol
 
TheDodgers said:
Agreed. Alot more goes into a total then just an Umpire assignment
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I mean they can't make pitchers throw close to the plate nor can they hit a hanging curve

They can be helpful to solidify a play or a reason to stay against it. Pretty sure most of us know that. There are a select few that squeeze the zone but it might be 3 or 4 at most that do that in any meaningful way. I've always liked under umps that we know love to expand the strike zone and with a control pitcher that also knows it and can use it to his advantage. No ump is randomly scoring 3 runs for anyone, that preposterous.

I know you're referring to a particular post...many of us here did the ump thing for years. Andy Fletcher is about as mediocre as it gets with his strike zone. He's pretty spot on yet somehow he's now a reason to put your money on an over? He would be the last reason I'd pull that trigger. Not like he's an under guy but he's definitely not a reason to bet a total.

Anywho, back to some shit I've bet on like women's soccer!
 
KJ said:
I mean they can't make pitchers throw close to the plate nor can they hit a hanging curve

They can be helpful to solidify a play or a reason to stay against it. Pretty sure most of us know that. There are a select few that squeeze the zone but it might be 3 or 4 at most that do that in any meaningful way. I've always liked under umps that we know love to expand the strike zone and with a control pitcher that also knows it and can use it to his advantage. No ump is randomly scoring 3 runs for anyone, that preposterous.

I know you're referring to a particular post...many of us here did the ump thing for years. Andy Fletcher is about as mediocre as it gets with his strike zone. He's pretty spot on yet somehow he's now a reason to put your money on an over? He would be the last reason I'd pull that trigger. Not like he's an under guy but he's definitely not a reason to bet a total.

Anywho, back to some shit I've bet on like women's soccer!
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Yep I can remember at least 20 years ago at another forum a guy was big on Umpire assignments. However, with that being said much more went into the daily spread sheets that were available for download he made. Weather, humidity just many factors that went into a decision. Not solely just an Umpire decision on a total. That guy was very sharp and he was very adamant to us younger guys that the ump info was a tool in the box, not the determining factor.
 
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TheDodgers said:
Yep I can remember at least 20 years ago at another forum a guy was big on Umpire assignments. However, with that being said much more went into the daily spread sheets that were available for download he made. Weather, humidity just many factors that went into a decision. Not solely just an Umpire decision on a total. That guy was very sharp and he was very adamant to us younger guys that the ump info was a tool in the box, not the determining factor.
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Yeah I actually care more about it now when an accurate pitcher is involved and can use it to their advantage. There have gotten to be so many hard throwers that they either hit or miss the zone, not many are crafty like the Maddox/Glavine types. There are a few and if they get an ump that expands the zone, they become very hard to hit. Can think of way more under guys than over guys over the years, that's for sure.
 
TheDodgers said:
Agreed. Alot more goes into a total then just an Umpire assignment
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correct. I only play the total more if its a certain ump and lines up or I lay off. The pitching-hitting matchup has to be within 1 run of the over for me to consider the total, if its a hitter leaning ump. If the total is 8, and I have the game getting to 6 runs, it doesnt matter who is umping, as an example but if i have 7 and it's andy fletcher who is 19-3 over this year and over 12 runs, I'll play it. 15% or so umps are more hitter friendly/higher run scoring umps, while 15% or so are more pitcher friendly/less run scoring umps. The rest or majority are neutral. I only worry about the 20-30% as most of the more severe umps either way add 1-1.5 runs either way in the TRI-Total runs initiated category on umpire scorecards.
The umpire overs are 160-108 YTD. Not sure the record on totals as a whole, but it has been real good all year, Overs especially.

186 Under was up at Betrivers til about 9am earlier. It's 186.5-122 right now. ...I posted 186.5-120.....02 off a few hours later....It's 185.5-110 right now at Rivers for no juice. Thanks
 
TheDodgers said:
Was watching women's volleyball earlier. Better than equestrian I guess.
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i like the ping pong!! beach volleyball way up my list. i hate handball, that like the dumbest shit ever! just run down and throw ball in net, rince/repeat! not even sure what the point of a live person in goal? just put a scarecrow in middle it wouldn't be much different, shit is so stupid! the game with the birdie thing they hit over net is awfu, i can't believe some team gets a medal for that!

canada/france has gotten intersting! i fell asleep during australia game early, i saw joker team came back from 20 down and it was back and forth w like 3-4 min left, next thing i know i woke up and some other shit was on. who won that game, jokic pull it out?
 
2daBank said:
i like the ping pong!! beach volleyball way up my list. i hate handball, that like the dumbest shit ever! just run down and throw ball in net, rince/repeat! not even sure what the point of a live person in goal? just put a scarecrow in middle it wouldn't be much different, shit is so stupid! the game with the birdie thing they hit over net is awfu, i can't believe some team gets a medal for that!

canada/france has gotten intersting! i fell asleep during australia game early, i saw joker team came back from 20 down and it was back and forth w like 3-4 min left, next thing i know i woke up and some other shit was on. who won that game, jokic pull it out?
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Ahhhh forgot handball. I actually looked up the events listed the other day and said wtf event is handball. Like an actual Olympic event.
 
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