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phife
Guest
I think it was a block in the back. I was too agitated by the sideline situation to pay attention to the other call.
time to post my 2015-2016 Bowls so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
I think it was a block in the back. I was too agitated by the sideline situation to pay attention to the other call.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
The Duke defender clearly slung the Indiana player violently to the turf well after he was out-of-bounds. When the Indiana player stood up, a Duke bench player pushed him. That's two clear personal foul penalties on Duke. Both fouls were committed right in front of the official. AFTER the Indiana player was pushed by the bench player, and after several other Duke bench players congregated around the Indiana player, another Indiana player push his way through the crowd to defend his clearly out-numbered teammate. That's who they called the personal foul on. I have no idea about the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. The announcers offered no explanation for that call, and I certainly didn't see anything on any of the replays.
Mind you, all this occurred right after a flagrant 3rd down pass interference wasn't called that forced an Indiana punt.
Then we had had the final denouement where a field goal that was apparently good was called no-good.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
The 2 calls on the play were unsportsman-like conduct and a personal foul. No block in the back.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya. That is what the Ref said ... personal foul and unsporstamanlike conduct.
I do wonder if that was a mistake though because they pulled the ball back too many yards. If it was really a block in the back then it is possible for the ball to have been placed where it was.
The problem I have with the game is similar to DwightS ... it was badly officiating and consistently in favor of one of the teams, especially from late third quarter onward.
On the bright side, all of us with Indiana have a great story. Laying 1.5, on the last play of the game down 3, the team I backed made a FG to end the game as a loser. How many people get to say that? Now to figure out how to monetize that story to get my money back.
I do wonder if that was a mistake though because they pulled the ball back too many yards. If it was really a block in the back then it is possible for the ball to have been placed where it was.
The problem I have with the game is similar to DwightS ... it was badly officiating and consistently in favor of one of the teams, especially from late third quarter onward.
On the bright side, all of us with Indiana have a great story. Laying 1.5, on the last play of the game down 3, the team I backed made a FG to end the game as a loser. How many people get to say that? Now to figure out how to monetize that story to get my money back.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Cal/AFA over - The reason I backed this is pretty basic and goes back to the two key questions I ask about each team when handicapping cfb. What does this team like to do when they have the ball? Can the other team take this away?
AFA is second in the country in rushing yards per game. They basically run it at 5.5 yards a pop and 322 yards per game. Like the other academies, the falcons run their own version of the triple option. Cal was 104th in the nation against the rush. What is sort of amazing about that fact is that they had a game this year where they held Washington State to just 14 yards on the ground which slightly skews that number a bit. They are giving up 203.5 at 4.77 ypc. Since early October, the Bears gave up at least 174 yards on the ground in every game. There has been extra time to prepare for the option which can be key but I feel comfortable with the idea that AFA is going to move the football effectively in this game. Moreover, I think the falcons will get several big chunk runs. AFA is a slow paced, like all traditional triple option teams, but are the fastest paced of the teams with this style. They mix in the pass a lot more than Army, Navy or Ga Southern and throw more along the lines of a UNM option attack. Cal is a fast paced team. They like to pass the football with Goff, obviously. So is AFA likely to stop them? Well, the falcons are ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 190.4 yards per game. So at first glance, one might say this bodes well for the falcons but a deeper inspection will show a different answer. The Falcons played three option teams this year which is going to skew your numbers dramatically. Against FBS competition that did not run the option, the Falcons gave up 226 yards per game and take my word for it ... that was not against the best passing offenses in the country either. Cal is one of the top five or ten passing teams in the country and this particular match up they will have huge speed advantages on the outside. I just can't think AFA slows them down a whole ton. And here we get the benefit of AFA being a medium sized dog. If Cal is making chunk plays (8.6 yards per attempt while afa yields 7.1) then we get an AFA team that is playing a little quicker than normal from behind rather than ahead. They were one of the better teams in the mw and led in their games quite a bit. So both defenses seem unlikely to stop what the opposing offense likes to do and I think the over is worth a shot.
AFA is second in the country in rushing yards per game. They basically run it at 5.5 yards a pop and 322 yards per game. Like the other academies, the falcons run their own version of the triple option. Cal was 104th in the nation against the rush. What is sort of amazing about that fact is that they had a game this year where they held Washington State to just 14 yards on the ground which slightly skews that number a bit. They are giving up 203.5 at 4.77 ypc. Since early October, the Bears gave up at least 174 yards on the ground in every game. There has been extra time to prepare for the option which can be key but I feel comfortable with the idea that AFA is going to move the football effectively in this game. Moreover, I think the falcons will get several big chunk runs. AFA is a slow paced, like all traditional triple option teams, but are the fastest paced of the teams with this style. They mix in the pass a lot more than Army, Navy or Ga Southern and throw more along the lines of a UNM option attack. Cal is a fast paced team. They like to pass the football with Goff, obviously. So is AFA likely to stop them? Well, the falcons are ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 190.4 yards per game. So at first glance, one might say this bodes well for the falcons but a deeper inspection will show a different answer. The Falcons played three option teams this year which is going to skew your numbers dramatically. Against FBS competition that did not run the option, the Falcons gave up 226 yards per game and take my word for it ... that was not against the best passing offenses in the country either. Cal is one of the top five or ten passing teams in the country and this particular match up they will have huge speed advantages on the outside. I just can't think AFA slows them down a whole ton. And here we get the benefit of AFA being a medium sized dog. If Cal is making chunk plays (8.6 yards per attempt while afa yields 7.1) then we get an AFA team that is playing a little quicker than normal from behind rather than ahead. They were one of the better teams in the mw and led in their games quite a bit. So both defenses seem unlikely to stop what the opposing offense likes to do and I think the over is worth a shot.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I won't write up much on the UNC game. While I would play UNC at the current number as well, they made the wrong team the favorite and so I took the points. It sat in that 1.5/2 area for five days or so before the Baylor QB announcement came out and then everyone hit UNC. Basically baylor defense has not shown the ability to stop good offense, of which UNC has. Without their normal throwing ability with all of the QB injuries, the Bears have been very dedicated down the stretch with running the football and they have been pretty good at it. The reason this game is not currently lined much higher is that the Heels have struggled stopping the run this year. They have made huge strides defensively year over year but they cannot be relied on to dominate the opposing offense. If Briles can win this game with the injuries his team has against an offensive genius like Fedora then I just have to tip my hat (dare I say my Fedora Hat?) and move along. This is one of my favorite bets of bowl season but that hasn't panned out so well as a distinguishing factor to winning as the other two I really liked were Arizona and Indiana, both of which lost vs the spread (though having watched both games, I would bet both again).
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Nev/csu under -- Stat of the game for this one is that both teams give up an average of 394.8 yards per game. This is pretty average and the pace of both teams is also sort of average. We are not operating in the extremes. CSU averages 417 yards per game and Nevada 378 or so. That is your three pt spread basically. So, all other things being equal, you are looking at a game with roughly 800 yards of total offense. So I decided to take a look at games where there were 850 or less yards of combined offense for the two teams vs fbs opponents. CSU games with less than 850 yards were 2-5 over-under as it relates to what is posted for this game. Nev games with less than 850 yards were 2-5 over-under as it relates to what is psoted for this game as well. So combined 4-10 over-under when the teams combine for slightly more than what I am projecting total yards at. Good sign. The big concern here is that CSU is pretty good at running the football and over the last bunch of games, Nevada has struggled in stopping it. I also have some concern that there are a lot of trick plays in this game. Hard to get the kids pumped up about playing a conference opponent in a bowl game... they might try to make it even more fun than usual. It's hard to find a huge edge in this game and I played it very small in comparison to my normal. Please no kick return scores....
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
LSU minus the pts --- Just betting on LSU running it down the throats of Texas Tech and getting enough stops to avoid the backdoor. I sort of like several motivation factors for this one .. Miles back and bowl loss last year to ND, And I also think that LSU benefits more from the extra practices on several levels ... they rate to improve more of their young raw talent than Texas Tech does and I don't think there is much Texas Tech can do as far as prepping for what LSU is going to do. They cannot simulate it, and you know what the tigers are about but Raiders don't have the personnel to stop it. LSU extra time to prep for what TT does should be more beneficial.
P.S. as a football fan I would like to see the smashmouth team win over the spread team.
P.S. as a football fan I would like to see the smashmouth team win over the spread team.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup. But TT ended up the third worst rush defense in cfb just above Idaho and Eastern Mich in terms of yards allowed per game. That was also when Arkansas was not playing quite as good. Had under 200 yards rushing against UTEP and roughly 100 yards rushing against Toledo in the two games leading into that one (where they had 228 and did have 5.3 a carry that game). But it is an interesting point in that Texas Tech didn't play vs a ton of smashmouth teams and their worst efforts defending it were against the spread passing teams like TCU and Baylor. I also have concern that the LSU pass defense is a little less than one would hope for against a team like TT, but they have defended TAMU well the last few years which is probably the closest comparison to make (Ole Miss O maybe?).
Don't see a ton of people rushing to the door to bet Texas Tech and the line has remained at 7 pretty much the whole way ...
Backdoor will be open. Kingsbury has an ego when it comes to the SEC teams and an ego when it comes to his offensive style.
Unfortunately they totaled it right. I didn't expect that.
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phife
Guest
Do you still like Pitt/Navy under at 53?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yes. But obviously don't like it as much. The game is not without concerns .. Pitt defensive performance against GT and Tyler Boyd vs the Navy secondary.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
This -7 looks to darn obvious to me. As you said, the line hasn't budged. The team that was +9 at WV is +7 vs LSU on neutral?
TT have given up 42 rushing TD's, 5.92 ypc against teams averaging 4.60, and 272 rushing ypg against teams averaging 200
Unless it's a 50-45 type game, I'm missing something obvious
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thanks. Gonna pass on the TT, I think.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think this is a case where the play on the favorite is predicated on the dog not scoring much anyway ...while it wouldn't quite be a double down for you, it would basically be asking for Minnesota to shut them down whether you are laying with the gophers or playing cmich tt under.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks Brass.
UNC/Baylor is an interesting game but unless something changes between now and kickoff, I think it will be hard for Baylor to win without a functioning qb against a team like UNC
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya. I simply don't get it but a lot of the time when I don't get it, that is exactly what it is ... me not getting it. Their secondary can be had as wky showed in the rain.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Kyle;
first, thanks for your thread.
second, great job so far.
third, hope you had a good christmas and have a great 2016.
fourth, why am i wrong in thinking that Navy -3 is the bowl game pick of 2015? I've already placed my max bet on them, but am not committed. I'm up 6 units on bowls basically tailing you & a few others and then stirring the mixture and making my selection.
first, thanks for your thread.
second, great job so far.
third, hope you had a good christmas and have a great 2016.
fourth, why am i wrong in thinking that Navy -3 is the bowl game pick of 2015? I've already placed my max bet on them, but am not committed. I'm up 6 units on bowls basically tailing you & a few others and then stirring the mixture and making my selection.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Their recency is a concern imo. They got beat pretty badly against Houston and then were outplayed by Army in the game I attended but got bailed out by Army turnovers. Both were games that one would expect Navy to be motivated for. Pitt has seen the option this year (failing though) and has good DC who could get them ready. But I hear ya .. and Pitt is a little banged up along the defensive line heading into this game. They will play but this is a difficult offense to play hurt against, especially with as much chop blocking as Navy does. I have to admit that I find it hard to see Reynolds go out with anything other than a win while playing in front of basically a home crowd. They are second in the nation in turnover margin too .... I get it ... Reynolds has been doing this awhile and knows how to take care of the football in the option attack but for a team with their defensive talent to be +17, this team has caught a lot of breaks in addition to being pretty good.
I prefer the under but I would lean the way of Navy.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Do you see Navy's zone defense against Army as a concept of guarding against the option? I watched that game in awe of how EA Poe was able to get open when everyone on earth knew he would be getting the ball on long down and distances.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks Steed.
BBF .. i saw it .. we laughed about it while at the game. Third and long, one man patterns that Navy couldn't defend.
Well, I hope Pitt didn't just figure out how easy it is to pick up chunks on this Navy secondary.
A couple more turnovers for that Navy defense too.
BBF .. i saw it .. we laughed about it while at the game. Third and long, one man patterns that Navy couldn't defend.
Well, I hope Pitt didn't just figure out how easy it is to pick up chunks on this Navy secondary.
A couple more turnovers for that Navy defense too.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Bad bet I guess. I gave the Pitt HC and defensive talent too much credit. They were undisciplined and looked unprepared for the option. I expected improvement from the GT effort and it simply did not materialize. Two non-offensive TD kind of hurt the cause too. I also miscapped the Navy gameplan. A lot more passing than I am used to watching them.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
I was very hesitant this year to give teams credit for playing against the options this year if it was a lesser form of it. That being said I was in that total with you hard and was way off. Neither team could defend and Navy looked to be in prevent with 14 minutes left
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
590 yards means you just were not prepared on some level but what bothered me about how I capped it was the plays run by Navy. They ran 89 plays which was by far the most they had run all year. For perspective, they ran just 64 vs fast paced tulsa, and just 56 and 55 vs houston and Army respectively. In other words, I capped the Navy pace wrong in addition to the panthers ability to stop it. Had Pitt committed to the pass, then I think they could have scored some offensive pts in the first half (offense was skunked that half). So my fear of GT performance being a mirror to this one came to fruition and to a lesser extent my fear of the Navy secondary came to fruition. And my fear of a motivated Reynolds came to fruition. And my fear of nonoffensive TD's came to fruition. So I sort of identified the risks and might have gotten away with one or two of them panning out badly for the under but there was no way to overcome it all.
Sometimes we are just wrong. I gave Pitt too much credit which allowed Navy to do whatever they wanted. I gave the Navy coaches too much credit for running their offense and instead they played faster and threw more and had more trick plays than any Navy game I have seen.
So it goes.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Very much so. Some of it was Pitt never having the ball but a lot of it was Navy snapping it faster.
I suspect this team will be a good under the total investment early next year. We shall see.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Feel good about the game so far in the dome. It is halftime and I think if we avoid overtime that we will cash the ticket a vast majority of the time from here. With that said, I thought Cmich got jobbed on at least one of the two fumbles which would have led to points and Minnesota dropped an easy TD on a long pass play. So it isn't like we didn't dodge some bullets that half.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
love them ml, BOL rest of the way CC
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I've got a ticket also and the forecast doesn't excite me. Overnight rain and into morning in Birmingham, doesn't look to be a downpour as of now and wind isn't forecasted to be an issue but I was hoping when I made the bet a few weeks ago weather wouldn't be an issue. Looks to be an issue and maybe even moreso in Charlotte too which stinks as an OVER backer. I'm no good at predicting how weather will impact stuff though
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
lynch will shred auburn- interested in his props as well- GL
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
P2 - good luck
ck - It looks like rain for the memphis game
timh - I enjoyed the game. I didn't see much of the games today but it based on the scores, it wasn't my brand of football for viewing pleasure.
aplous - Ya .. hopefully keep within the number if they don't manage the win. Thing is, the most similar team from an offensive standpoint is probably ole miss who game Auburn fits. In fact, spread teams did quite well against the Auburn defense. As CK mentioned, there appears to be a forecast issue. But I will take my chances at memphis finding 30 against that stop unit. Do fear that Auburn is one of those teams that has players that could have really benefited from the extra practices. Thoughts on your boys vs Ark?
capt - check weather close to gametime with those props
ck - It looks like rain for the memphis game
timh - I enjoyed the game. I didn't see much of the games today but it based on the scores, it wasn't my brand of football for viewing pleasure.
aplous - Ya .. hopefully keep within the number if they don't manage the win. Thing is, the most similar team from an offensive standpoint is probably ole miss who game Auburn fits. In fact, spread teams did quite well against the Auburn defense. As CK mentioned, there appears to be a forecast issue. But I will take my chances at memphis finding 30 against that stop unit. Do fear that Auburn is one of those teams that has players that could have really benefited from the extra practices. Thoughts on your boys vs Ark?
capt - check weather close to gametime with those props
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am sleepy .. so going with the quick, relatively worthless thoughts...
Memphis & Over - Basically just think the Memphis offense won't miss a beat post-Fuentes. Auburn has had matchup problems with spread offenses. Memphis hopefully plays with a chip on their shoulder. These two teams are not as fast paced as you think they are and we will need execution to reach the total but I think there are a lot of big plays in the mix for this game. If we do not get the big plays, specifically from Memphis, then we are going to be in some trouble
USC and Under - Want to see a crazy stat ..... in week one, Wisconsin gave up over 500 yards to Alabama. After that game, they never gave up more than 333. The Badgers played an easy schedule and coasted to their record but they have definitely dropped a notch from the teams of the last bunch of years. Their defense is still sound and their pace is nice and slow... but perhaps most important is that no matter who seems to play the Badgers, the game takes on the feel of a Badger game. The teams are somewhat even but Stave is not as good as Kessler and he doesn't have the same weapons to throw to even if he was. I think both teams struggle running the ball, so the game is likely to come down to who can throw it better, kick it better (USC with the better placekicker), win the special teams and not turn the ball over. I like USC to win most of those factors so I laid the pts and went with the under.
Ville - Not writing it up but I wouldn't play ville at current numbers. I played this one before the totality of the dysfunction was known in Aggieland.
Sorry but it has been a long day and I simply am too tired to walk through the stats, matchups and angles with these games tonight. Maybe in the morning I can find some time.
Memphis & Over - Basically just think the Memphis offense won't miss a beat post-Fuentes. Auburn has had matchup problems with spread offenses. Memphis hopefully plays with a chip on their shoulder. These two teams are not as fast paced as you think they are and we will need execution to reach the total but I think there are a lot of big plays in the mix for this game. If we do not get the big plays, specifically from Memphis, then we are going to be in some trouble
USC and Under - Want to see a crazy stat ..... in week one, Wisconsin gave up over 500 yards to Alabama. After that game, they never gave up more than 333. The Badgers played an easy schedule and coasted to their record but they have definitely dropped a notch from the teams of the last bunch of years. Their defense is still sound and their pace is nice and slow... but perhaps most important is that no matter who seems to play the Badgers, the game takes on the feel of a Badger game. The teams are somewhat even but Stave is not as good as Kessler and he doesn't have the same weapons to throw to even if he was. I think both teams struggle running the ball, so the game is likely to come down to who can throw it better, kick it better (USC with the better placekicker), win the special teams and not turn the ball over. I like USC to win most of those factors so I laid the pts and went with the under.
Ville - Not writing it up but I wouldn't play ville at current numbers. I played this one before the totality of the dysfunction was known in Aggieland.
Sorry but it has been a long day and I simply am too tired to walk through the stats, matchups and angles with these games tonight. Maybe in the morning I can find some time.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
So Baylor is without a viable QB. Everyone in the free world knows it and I assumed UNC knew it as well. How on God's green Earth did Baylor rush for 645 yards? You know exactly what they are going to do .... clearly not prepared for the game or their team weakness (defense) was far more deficient than I was knocking them for. smh
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i know what you mean. frustrating...but my mistake bringing the under in play, even with one dimension to worry about.
anyhow, keep up the winning VK.
anyhow, keep up the winning VK.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Kyle:
up early today to finish off my Bowl selections ( I try to come up with my view and then tail you and a few others....just like taking some responsibility ). Call me old fashioned, but I'm looking forward to Iowa-Stnfrd. My common sense, limited knowledge, and experience says that game stays close early but the Indians (sorry Cardinal) pull away @ end for a 10-14 point win...they have too much skill, speed and are disciplined. But my 'gut' says that Iowa has an emotional edge and toughness to pull the upset. So, looks like I have talked myself into an Iowa 1H bet and a Stanford game bet for twice 1H wager.
look forward to your thoughts/selection.
very good bowl season going for you
thx
up early today to finish off my Bowl selections ( I try to come up with my view and then tail you and a few others....just like taking some responsibility ). Call me old fashioned, but I'm looking forward to Iowa-Stnfrd. My common sense, limited knowledge, and experience says that game stays close early but the Indians (sorry Cardinal) pull away @ end for a 10-14 point win...they have too much skill, speed and are disciplined. But my 'gut' says that Iowa has an emotional edge and toughness to pull the upset. So, looks like I have talked myself into an Iowa 1H bet and a Stanford game bet for twice 1H wager.
look forward to your thoughts/selection.
very good bowl season going for you
thx
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phife
Guest
From start to finish, UNC played in a 4-2 alignment with their safeties 15 yards off the ball. No adjustments were made. It was beyond frustrating to watch.
At halftime when they asked Fedora what they needed to do to get the defense on track, he said "tackle better".
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
well they did
props to that Mahom number 2 QB( I kid on the name lol).......I think the announcer at one point said TT looked like "water bugs" out there......I haven't seen a size difference like that in a while.....was happy for LSU and you
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
The difference was TT had super fast guys at WR. Jakeem Grant is just nasty. LSU has fast guys at every level. The defensive speed and overall athleticicm across the board for LSU was as large a disparity Ive seen this bowl season.
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