time to post my 2015-2016 Bowls so far

It is going to be tough for big12 teams for a while when they face the bigger guys. Conference is ALL about defending the spread right now so you are going to intentionally recruit the smaller linebackers.
 
clowncar said:
It is going to be tough for big12 teams for a while when they face the bigger guys. Conference is ALL about defending the spread right now so you are going to intentionally recruit the smaller linebackers.
Click to expand...

Ya, i agree with that. the difference was, I think LSU DL could run with the TT LB. The defensive line is the one position grouping where year over year I see why the SEC has been as good as it has been past decade.
 
Barring overtime it is hard to find where the pts are going to come from.

Auburn, if they are smart are going to run even more than the first half, which could lead to success but even if it does that is a time consuming success. Lynch is busy showing why he not only will not be a qualty nfl qb but also why he does not have the ability to convert to a different position either. Memphis playing slower and even more horizontal in scheme than normal. Defenses are ruling the day right now. Just avoid overtime and hope auburn is bad enough that memphis wins despite being horrible.

Ouch, the AAC is bad ....... and Navy success is because of the best qb since Staubach running a system that is hard to prepare for. I fear a little for Houston right now.
 
Do we know why the Clemson total dropped to 63.5? Is it weather, the suspensions or something else?
 
I think there is some weather per don best. I laid off part of my over on under 64. Keeping about half.
 
I went ahead and added the Iowa/Stanford under. This is largely based on pace as I do think both offenses can succeed some in this game. But when both teams are heavy time of possession clubs and take longer than most teams in modern football to run a play, I have to start thinking under. Iowa is off of two consecutive games where they failed to reach 300 yards of offense and while Stanford is coming off a game where they scored 41, they could not have been much more efficient. I think both of these teams will be highly motivated and so we at least should not see a mail it in performance by either club. I could actually point to the efficiency of both teams and make a case for pts here even with low yardage outputs but I do think that at some point these two clubs don't continue to convert every opportunity they get. I am a little upset as a person who has made a lot of cash over the years backing iowa at the right time, that I haven't bet them much this year. I may regret that again here as I think the game is competitive. Normally I would be concerned about forced turnovers but I don't think they should be a major concern here. The kick return game is a concern of course. One other thing that I like is that the teams are similar in style. So I am sort of approaching this as two slow paced, run first teams who know what the other team likes to do ... sounds like my love for unders when the academies play one another... worth it.
 
Bowl season has been great for me personally but there has not been a ton of close games this year. Most of these games have blowouts or at least double digit wins. And a few of the single digit games were only that way because of late backdoor action .. unm succeeded in recovering an onside kick to backdoor to single digits, tulsa backdoor to single digits.

Kind of longing for some close games though I seem to be losing the games that are close on the scoreboard (Indiana, USC come to mind).

I am sort of footballed out right now. Ready for the season to be over .. but on January 12th I will be in mourning for football.
 
clowncar said:
Took the over in the tcu/oregon game. Anyone who knows me, knows that I prefer smashmouth defensive football to modern day 7 on 7. Anyone who knows me, knows that I find it hard to go over games in the mid to high seventies because it takes so little to derail the game. A six minute drive that ends scoreless in a game totaled like this is hard to overcome. But it is what the numbers and matchups are telling me to do. Obviously we have two fast paced teams. That is the perception of all and I confirmed it by pace stats just to make sure. That part of the game should be fine. We have the 6th ranked and 13th ranked offenses in terms of number of long plays from scrimmage (over 30 yds). The same two teams sport defenses that are 94th and 99th respectively as far as giving up big plays of 30 yards or more. So we have now coupled fast pace with big play capability of the offenses with the tendency of both defenses to give up chunk plays. Oregon is one of two teams in the nation that averages over 6 yards per carry and are 4th in the nation in rushing yards per game. In fact, of non-triple option teams, only Baylor rushes for more per game than Oregon. Running the ball is still the bread and butter of Oregon. In past years, when TCU used to sport some of the best run defenses in the nation, this type of match up would have worked very favorably for them. This year, largely the part of injuries, the TCU defense ranks a disappointing 79th against the run. Over the final two games of the year against oklahoma and baylor (rain game), the frogs gave up an average of 303 yards on the ground. Can TCU stop what Oregon likes to do? Unlikely. But they will make a few stops in the run game, so let's take a peek at what oregon can do passing, Ducks are 7th in the nation in yards per pass attempt and 35th in yards per game through the air. Moreover, those numbers would be even better had Adams played the whole way. He got injured and had 7 attempts across the four games of georgia state, utah, colorado state and washington state. His replacement, Lockie threw for 136 yards per game over that stretch, considerably lower than the 260 yards or so average they had for the year. It makes a big difference. While the TCU pass defense looks slightly above average in terms of yards given up, they did play in a conference that lights up the scoreboard and their defense from a yards per attempt was actually pretty good at 6.3 yards. Ducks do pose a somewhat unique style compared to what the frogs are used to seeing and while I like Patterson as a rule when it comes to scheming to stop the run and while I think TCU gets a little bit healthier over the month off, they don't rate to stop Oregon with Adams at the helm. TCU averages 564 yards per game in a conference that doesn't play real football. They have decent balance, ranking 7th in passing offense and 24th in rushing offense. Their bread and butter is QB Boykin making big plays. Can oregon stop Boykin and TCU from doing what they like to do? Nope. Oregon's achilles heal all year long has been their secondary. Would you believe they rank 126 out of 128 in yards given up via the pass? Tis true. Oregon does sport an average rush defense.

So we have everything to point to a lot of points: pace, big plays from scrimmage, and both defensive weaknesses matching up against an opposing offense capable of exploiting it. There are going to be fireworks in this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hundy scored.
Click to expand...


Well, I finally branched out and bet a super high total over the number (stats for the season say to go over these high numbered games). Boykin then decides to engage in Shenanigans.

I have no idea what to do about it but I no longer like the over even at current let alone the crappy number I am stuck with.

Thanks Boykin
 
Personal rant ...

Enough with the pooch kick and squib kick that gets the opponent to start at their own 35-45 yard line every time it is employed late in a game. If you are worried about kickoff return td returns then you do not deserve to win the game at that point. If you are worried about the rare cases of huge returns against your team out to the 40 yard line, then guaranteeing them that field position is probably not the right solution. There are very few instances where the pooch/squib is worth it. There are a couple .... but it is completely being overdone by coaches now.

Small acknowledgment

I noticed a couple of coaches the last few games using their first half timeouts when the opponent has first and goal late in the half to give themselves some time after the score to get a scoring chance of their own. Finally. Tip of the cap to those coaches who understand the clock a little bit.
 
clowncar said:
Well, I finally branched out and bet a super high total over the number (stats for the season say to go over these high numbered games). Boykin then decides to engage in Shenanigans.

I have no idea what to do about it but I no longer like the over even at current let alone the crappy number I am stuck with.

Thanks Boykin
Click to expand...

I think TCU still racks up some points in this one.
 
clowncar said:
Personal rant ...

Enough with the pooch kick and squib kick that gets the opponent to start at their own 35-45 yard line every time it is employed late in a game. If you are worried about kickoff return td returns then you do not deserve to win the game at that point. If you are worried about the rare cases of huge returns against your team out to the 40 yard line, then guaranteeing them that field position is probably not the right solution. There are very few instances where the pooch/squib is worth it. There are a couple .... but it is completely being overdone by coaches now.

Small acknowledgment

I noticed a couple of coaches the last few games using their first half timeouts when the opponent has first and goal late in the half to give themselves some time after the score to get a scoring chance of their own. Finally. Tip of the cap to those coaches who understand the clock a little bit.
Click to expand...

Very good points. Unless Rocket Ismail is back there, just kick the ball deep. If you feel the need to get in the fetal position, do us all a favor and just pack it up and hit the road.

I second your cap tip. I've never understood why football coaches fail to respect the value of every possession they are provided. I'm especially astounded by coaches who just concede end of half possessions when they aren't getting the ball to start the second half.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I think TCU still racks up some points in this one.
Click to expand...


It can depend on a lot. Even though they are still capable of scoring, will their pace be the same? Dunno how Patterson approaches it. You cannot really look at OU game as an example of what pace to expect given the time and score.

Hope you are right .. though I will be tempted to go under 1h of that game and then if it loses go under 2h which should limit my exposure to 1.2 units and taking a .1 unit loss when the first half is a dead under. It would literally take perfect result perfect result to be risking any type of middle in that scenario.

I will have to look into the game again and figure out how to handle it.

But there is no value in the over without arguably the best cfb QB for 2016 in the game.
 
I don't think Harris can play better though his receivers with some key drops sure could. Blown coverage TD and I doubt Florida continues to get gashed all game on the ground the way michigan was humiliating them
 
both teams passed more than expected .. i would expect more of a running clock 2h, especially with michigan receiving the kick
 
Thorson was concussed early and just hasn't been good since. They are being dominated. He had a wide open guy for a td and managed to throw a pick instead... though i dont think that would have mattered. vols just much the best .. faster stronger and nw tiring. Slow receivers cannot get open with any consistency. the kicker was probably the impetus of the line move this morning. should probably investigate that kid
 
The stanford total was a stinger and a half....td on first play of game, int ret td, punt ret td, backdoor td against the backup defenders and unsportsmanlike bomb td instead of taking knees against one of the classiest and most respected coaches in the business. Shaw should be ashamed.
 
That ranks up there as one of the worst beats I have taken this season. He actually threw a bomb up 22 pts and one play away from taking knees
 
Sorry, I have no respect for what Shaw did. Iowa fought hard and clean all game long despite being whooped and outmatched and on occasion humiliated by McCaffery. Ferentz is a pretty classy head coach no matter what else you might want to say about him. He didn't throw a bomb late while up big when the teams were still playing. He threw a bomb late when he could qb sneak to knees. There are no words for how unsportsmanlike that is.
 
hey clown,
ferentz could have ran that game out after the INT, he did all he could to get 7
so fuck it i say and i was on the under too
if iowa goes run run pass and punts, tree goes run run run to a knee no doubt
 
dudleysdad said:
hey clown,
ferentz could have ran that game out after the INT, he did all he could to get 7
so fuck it i say and i was on the under too
if iowa goes run run pass and punts, tree goes run run run to a knee no doubt
Click to expand...

That is normal for the team down 29

So what Ferentz did was normal, what Shaw did was clearly abnormal.

Agree to disagree.
 
dudleysdad said:
hey clown,
ferentz could have ran that game out after the INT, he did all he could to get 7
so fuck it i say and i was on the under too
if iowa goes run run pass and punts, tree goes run run run to a knee no doubt
Click to expand...

There's no reason / rationale for what Shaw did. Hogan made the throw to Mac to get the record. At that point, up 3+ TDs with 2 minutes left? You take a knee.

You don't throw a bomb.
 
clowncar said:
That is true.

Agree to disagree about the Stanford play call regardless of what Iowa did on the previous drive.
Click to expand...
well that is the only way i can see it, i had the under also
had a bad number (53) so that lost on the iowa td
coach saying, "well they wanna keep playing, lets keep playing"
 
ADD

tcu/oregon 1h under 38.

I want to explain myself here so there is no ambiguity about what I am doing and why.

Boykin is out for being a douchebag. I think that matters a lot more than the total move would indicate. In other words, I think the current total is too high.

However, I am holding an over 78 ticket and I am not one to risk the polish middle (sorry polish people, I didn't create the phrase).

The 1h total of 38, however, gives me options.

Before I explain, let me say that I like the first qtr to be the lowest scoring quarter of the game. I think there is a chance TCU is slower paced than normal early and both defenses will be at their freshest. So I do like the first half under from that perspective.

But what I am also looking at is the likely scores the game would have if it were to go over the 38 points in the first half. 39 seems nearly impossible, 40 unlikely .. 41-42 plausible. If it goes over but barely and I still like the under, I can play accordingly without risking a polish middle with about any plausible 2h total that is put out there. If it goes way over, I will have other choices to make as to whether to let the full game total ride or go for a middle of my own with a 1.1 loser already out of the bank.

For full disclosure, since I think it is only fair to mention it ... I will have a tiny bet on the under 74.5 because I want to be slightly weighted to the under with Boykin out.

With a total in the seventies, I might not normally do this with a line move against my wager but in this case, I feel that total is way too high where it sits currently and so I feel compelled to do this.

So for all intents and purposes I have 1 unit over the full game of 78 and a full unit under 1h 38 (and a few pizzas on the under 74.5 which i will not track above but just letting you know because I did it and it seems fair to tell you in case you tail, which i doubt many do but just in case).

I hope that makes sense to you.

To discuss something else ... I bet that total too early. Suspensions and academic ineligibility and arrests are all part of bowl season and how much value was i going to lose on an over 78 by waiting? I risked the over money too early and paid a price. Easy to say now .. and certainly got line value by taking the nd/tosu total early ...

there is a school of thought to just keep the bad bet and hope it wins. I will basically be risking, in my estimation, an extra 0.1 units doing it this way. I don't think there are many scenarios where that 1h can go over where I cannot go under and limit the loss to 1.2. If the game goes as I now think it will, I will make a small profit despite losing arguably the best quarterback in cfb a few days before the game.

And there is always the outside chance that it stays under 1h but finds its way over in a faster paced 2h.

It is the strategy I am going to use .... for the good or for the bad.
 
After watching iowa and nwestern today ... to put it mildly I have a lot of fear concerning the penn st wager
 
ADD

penn state georgia under 43


a bunch of unders to close out the year with uga game, arkansas game, asu game, national title game and the first half of the oregon game. Given how bad unders have been this could get really ugly today.
 
clowncar said:
ADD

penn state georgia under 43


a bunch of unders to close out the year with uga game, arkansas game, asu game, national title game and the first half of the oregon game. Given how bad unders have been this could get really ugly today.
Click to expand...

I thought betting dogs and unders was a solid plan. I lost every under yesterday, and the only over I played was the Sugar Bowl, which I got at 68.5. Of course that lost by a half.

:hang:
 
clowncar said:
Sorry, I have no respect for what Shaw did. Iowa fought hard and clean all game long despite being whooped and outmatched and on occasion humiliated by McCaffery. Ferentz is a pretty classy head coach no matter what else you might want to say about him. He didn't throw a bomb late while up big when the teams were still playing. He threw a bomb late when he could qb sneak to knees. There are no words for how unsportsmanlike that is.
Click to expand...
Totally agree, was disappointed to see that happen.
 
ADD

Ark/KSU 2h under 28 -115

I would play this at 24.5 or better so you have an idea of how ridiculous I think this total is
 
clowncar said:
Ridiculous game.
Click to expand...

BigXII not used to stopping the run, or seeing much of it.
I thought it was a good shot considering Arky's 4th qtr totals. Thus, the qtr total was average but had gotten away from you in the 3rd.

You still see things well, the kids don't cooperate sometimes.
GL on these last two , sir.
 
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