time to post my 2015-2016 Bowls so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Nice one. That Boise/N Illy game was a bummer. I dont follow either team very closely but considering N Illy is statistically so tough in the red zone and rarely give up big plays I was shocked, only watched 1H though. NIU appeared to me to be the first truly disinterested team I've seen thus far
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 513"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: thin; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH]
[TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]10-16[/TD]
[TD]1-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]654[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]377[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]29-41[/TD]
[TD]7-21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]9.2[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]277[/TD]
[TD]-5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[TD]-0.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]8-65[/TD]
[TD]5-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]43:13[/TD]
[TD]16:47[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Largest yardage disparity between two FBS teams since 2000. Baylor almost outagined Rice by this earlier in year and Colt did something simiar to trevor vittatoe but none of those teams had winning records, were division champs and almost beat Ohio State!
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Quick blurp please. What are you seeing? Playing a number or is the QB situation for both squads? I'm relating this to Temple/Cincy for comparison.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Took the over in the tcu/oregon game. Anyone who knows me, knows that I prefer smashmouth defensive football to modern day 7 on 7. Anyone who knows me, knows that I find it hard to go over games in the mid to high seventies because it takes so little to derail the game. A six minute drive that ends scoreless in a game totaled like this is hard to overcome. But it is what the numbers and matchups are telling me to do. Obviously we have two fast paced teams. That is the perception of all and I confirmed it by pace stats just to make sure. That part of the game should be fine. We have the 6th ranked and 13th ranked offenses in terms of number of long plays from scrimmage (over 30 yds). The same two teams sport defenses that are 94th and 99th respectively as far as giving up big plays of 30 yards or more. So we have now coupled fast pace with big play capability of the offenses with the tendency of both defenses to give up chunk plays. Oregon is one of two teams in the nation that averages over 6 yards per carry and are 4th in the nation in rushing yards per game. In fact, of non-triple option teams, only Baylor rushes for more per game than Oregon. Running the ball is still the bread and butter of Oregon. In past years, when TCU used to sport some of the best run defenses in the nation, this type of match up would have worked very favorably for them. This year, largely the part of injuries, the TCU defense ranks a disappointing 79th against the run. Over the final two games of the year against oklahoma and baylor (rain game), the frogs gave up an average of 303 yards on the ground. Can TCU stop what Oregon likes to do? Unlikely. But they will make a few stops in the run game, so let's take a peek at what oregon can do passing, Ducks are 7th in the nation in yards per pass attempt and 35th in yards per game through the air. Moreover, those numbers would be even better had Adams played the whole way. He got injured and had 7 attempts across the four games of georgia state, utah, colorado state and washington state. His replacement, Lockie threw for 136 yards per game over that stretch, considerably lower than the 260 yards or so average they had for the year. It makes a big difference. While the TCU pass defense looks slightly above average in terms of yards given up, they did play in a conference that lights up the scoreboard and their defense from a yards per attempt was actually pretty good at 6.3 yards. Ducks do pose a somewhat unique style compared to what the frogs are used to seeing and while I like Patterson as a rule when it comes to scheming to stop the run and while I think TCU gets a little bit healthier over the month off, they don't rate to stop Oregon with Adams at the helm. TCU averages 564 yards per game in a conference that doesn't play real football. They have decent balance, ranking 7th in passing offense and 24th in rushing offense. Their bread and butter is QB Boykin making big plays. Can oregon stop Boykin and TCU from doing what they like to do? Nope. Oregon's achilles heal all year long has been their secondary. Would you believe they rank 126 out of 128 in yards given up via the pass? Tis true. Oregon does sport an average rush defense.
So we have everything to point to a lot of points: pace, big plays from scrimmage, and both defensive weaknesses matching up against an opposing offense capable of exploiting it. There are going to be fireworks in this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hundy scored.
So we have everything to point to a lot of points: pace, big plays from scrimmage, and both defensive weaknesses matching up against an opposing offense capable of exploiting it. There are going to be fireworks in this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hundy scored.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also, I think it is only fair to mention that the SdSU/Cin total was played for a lower amount of $ than the other bowls. I think the game is totaled and lined pretty good. i have a lean to SDSU in the game as well but it is very slight. I will make my case for why I bet the under and some of the guys I talk to regularly can attest to the fact that I struggled mightily with this game. So while I make my case for the under, understand that there is a lot of conflicting information surrounding this game as it pertains to what it is lined and totaled and I will mention some of that as I go here.
My first concern for the under is that I like both of the FG kickers. I like it when one or both teams have a bad kicker because you can get those nice long drives that not only end scoreless but leave the other team starting with bad to average field position heading back the other way. I love missed short and midrange field goals. But these guys are both pretty accurate. just mentioning that to get it out of the way.
We have a case where both teams are starting the their second string QB's. There is a considerable drop off to Moore of the bearcats from Kiel (the walking concussion) and there is most likely a drop off from Maxwell Smith to Christian Chapman. I guess the jury on Chapman is still out and while I think there is a big dropoff to Moore understand that i don't dislike Moore as a QB. I actually think he will be pretty good. So this is a case of two backups where there will be slight decline but not major decline. In the wake of what we just saw with the NIU QB situation, that is not a concern here. These backups are more capable of moving the ball with their teams and in the case of Chapman, he is going to spend most of his time handing it off anyway.
The second point I would like to bring up is pace. SDSU is one of the slower paced teams in the country. They like to hand it off and hand it off some more, smashing you in the face with their oline and Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey is one of the best runners in the country that most of the country have no idea about and I will get to that later. Cincinnati plays with above average pace but they are not as fast paced as some would think. They ran it 480 times (including sacks) and threw it 516 times. They are more balanced than people think and with Gunner out, they rate to be running it more than average here as well. So there is certainly potential from a statistical standpoint for this to be a below average pace game. The problem is that the bearcats have a bad rush defense, which I will talk about .. and that could pose a problem where SDSU is scoring and the bearcats start passing a lot. But ... at the current listed total, the year long pace numbers point to an under.
Can the bearcats stop what sdsu likes to do? No and to a lesser extent, yes. Their rush defense is bad. There is no getting around that and the sdsu rush attack is great. There is no getting around that. sdsu is 14th in the nation in yards per game on the ground at roughly 235 per game and have been dominant in running the football in the MW in the games that I watched. And Cincinnati is 93rd in the nation giving up about 191 yards per game. SDSU average 4.9 per carry and cin gives up 5.0 per carry so we have an idea of what to expect. On Christmas eve, I think Pumphrey might put on a show if sdsu can be that physically dominant. But even though the bearcats are bad against the run they have largely faced spread running attacks and not power running attacks. And the bearcats have given up over 220 yards in just two games all year. So while consistently bad, they are not consistently REALLY bad. And even if they give up the big rushes to a degree, they do rate to be ok vs the sdsu pass game and chapman. And there is a difference between what sdsu has done running the ball in conference and out of conference. 152 yards rushing at Cal and 101 yards rushing at penn state. Both are better rush defenses and sdsu was playing poorly to start the year and great to end the year so some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt. But when you have faced the rush d of hawaii (121st), sbama (114th), fresno st (118th), sjsu (102nd), Cal (103rd), csu (107th), unlv (112th) wyoming (115th), nevada (89th), the bearcats become one of the better rush defenses they have faced (afa and penn st the only clearly better). These are bigger athletes that sdsu is going to have to push around and the bearcats are coming from a much tougher football conference. As slow as SDSU is, they may be even slower here with more third downs to convert. So while I think sdsu can run on cinci and think that Pumphrey might somewhat go off, I don't think we are looking at a rush output the likes we saw with usf against cinci.
I have some concerns about he aztecs secondary in this one, largely because they played against a lot of bad pass offenses this year. So while they rank in the top twenty in yards given up via the pass, they face a different brand of passing attack with the bearcats. And I have a concern that if cinci does get destroyed by the running game that they will be passing a lot to come back. That would hurt our pace advantage, such as it is. But overall, it is hard to not like what sdsu has been doing defensively, it is just that they have played such a weak offensive schedule, it is hard to know how good they might be. this is arguably the best offense they will play all year.
Weather. There is a decent chance wind and precipitation. I have a problem with rain forecasts in hawaii because i never know whether it is the beautiful soft mist that sometimes falls there (I LOVE Hawaii and I thoroughly enjoy the misty rain and the rainbows that ensue) or if it is actual rain.
This game is lined and totaled well on paper. I have spent a ton of time on it ... there is no huge edge that is visible to me. This game could see 70 and I wouldn't be shocked or 42 and I wouldn't be shocked. SDSU could blow out cinci the way USF did or they could find sledding tougher offensively against a larger and faster athlete group than they have seen most of the year. SDSU is also likely to see less of the ball than they normally do and may not get fourth quarter benefit of a tired defense. There is just so much conflicting information and the schedules are so difficult to compare and cinci is so schizo that they are hard to predict in general.
Huge edge at head coach in my estimation and certainly running teams are more consistent. Throw in that sdsu is about as close to a lock on winning the turnover battle as you are going to get in a college game and I have a lean to them to win but I think there is a better chance of a 27-24 types final and it sneaks under the total.
I think this is the type of game where you get the drives to midfield and then get the stops ... where both offenses move the ball somewhat and even score some but where they both have to work harder than they normally do to do it.
Again .... not a ton of confidence in this one and bet it for less.
My first concern for the under is that I like both of the FG kickers. I like it when one or both teams have a bad kicker because you can get those nice long drives that not only end scoreless but leave the other team starting with bad to average field position heading back the other way. I love missed short and midrange field goals. But these guys are both pretty accurate. just mentioning that to get it out of the way.
We have a case where both teams are starting the their second string QB's. There is a considerable drop off to Moore of the bearcats from Kiel (the walking concussion) and there is most likely a drop off from Maxwell Smith to Christian Chapman. I guess the jury on Chapman is still out and while I think there is a big dropoff to Moore understand that i don't dislike Moore as a QB. I actually think he will be pretty good. So this is a case of two backups where there will be slight decline but not major decline. In the wake of what we just saw with the NIU QB situation, that is not a concern here. These backups are more capable of moving the ball with their teams and in the case of Chapman, he is going to spend most of his time handing it off anyway.
The second point I would like to bring up is pace. SDSU is one of the slower paced teams in the country. They like to hand it off and hand it off some more, smashing you in the face with their oline and Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey is one of the best runners in the country that most of the country have no idea about and I will get to that later. Cincinnati plays with above average pace but they are not as fast paced as some would think. They ran it 480 times (including sacks) and threw it 516 times. They are more balanced than people think and with Gunner out, they rate to be running it more than average here as well. So there is certainly potential from a statistical standpoint for this to be a below average pace game. The problem is that the bearcats have a bad rush defense, which I will talk about .. and that could pose a problem where SDSU is scoring and the bearcats start passing a lot. But ... at the current listed total, the year long pace numbers point to an under.
Can the bearcats stop what sdsu likes to do? No and to a lesser extent, yes. Their rush defense is bad. There is no getting around that and the sdsu rush attack is great. There is no getting around that. sdsu is 14th in the nation in yards per game on the ground at roughly 235 per game and have been dominant in running the football in the MW in the games that I watched. And Cincinnati is 93rd in the nation giving up about 191 yards per game. SDSU average 4.9 per carry and cin gives up 5.0 per carry so we have an idea of what to expect. On Christmas eve, I think Pumphrey might put on a show if sdsu can be that physically dominant. But even though the bearcats are bad against the run they have largely faced spread running attacks and not power running attacks. And the bearcats have given up over 220 yards in just two games all year. So while consistently bad, they are not consistently REALLY bad. And even if they give up the big rushes to a degree, they do rate to be ok vs the sdsu pass game and chapman. And there is a difference between what sdsu has done running the ball in conference and out of conference. 152 yards rushing at Cal and 101 yards rushing at penn state. Both are better rush defenses and sdsu was playing poorly to start the year and great to end the year so some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt. But when you have faced the rush d of hawaii (121st), sbama (114th), fresno st (118th), sjsu (102nd), Cal (103rd), csu (107th), unlv (112th) wyoming (115th), nevada (89th), the bearcats become one of the better rush defenses they have faced (afa and penn st the only clearly better). These are bigger athletes that sdsu is going to have to push around and the bearcats are coming from a much tougher football conference. As slow as SDSU is, they may be even slower here with more third downs to convert. So while I think sdsu can run on cinci and think that Pumphrey might somewhat go off, I don't think we are looking at a rush output the likes we saw with usf against cinci.
I have some concerns about he aztecs secondary in this one, largely because they played against a lot of bad pass offenses this year. So while they rank in the top twenty in yards given up via the pass, they face a different brand of passing attack with the bearcats. And I have a concern that if cinci does get destroyed by the running game that they will be passing a lot to come back. That would hurt our pace advantage, such as it is. But overall, it is hard to not like what sdsu has been doing defensively, it is just that they have played such a weak offensive schedule, it is hard to know how good they might be. this is arguably the best offense they will play all year.
Weather. There is a decent chance wind and precipitation. I have a problem with rain forecasts in hawaii because i never know whether it is the beautiful soft mist that sometimes falls there (I LOVE Hawaii and I thoroughly enjoy the misty rain and the rainbows that ensue) or if it is actual rain.
This game is lined and totaled well on paper. I have spent a ton of time on it ... there is no huge edge that is visible to me. This game could see 70 and I wouldn't be shocked or 42 and I wouldn't be shocked. SDSU could blow out cinci the way USF did or they could find sledding tougher offensively against a larger and faster athlete group than they have seen most of the year. SDSU is also likely to see less of the ball than they normally do and may not get fourth quarter benefit of a tired defense. There is just so much conflicting information and the schedules are so difficult to compare and cinci is so schizo that they are hard to predict in general.
Huge edge at head coach in my estimation and certainly running teams are more consistent. Throw in that sdsu is about as close to a lock on winning the turnover battle as you are going to get in a college game and I have a lean to them to win but I think there is a better chance of a 27-24 types final and it sneaks under the total.
I think this is the type of game where you get the drives to midfield and then get the stops ... where both offenses move the ball somewhat and even score some but where they both have to work harder than they normally do to do it.
Again .... not a ton of confidence in this one and bet it for less.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
post 113
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Depending on the size of your screen, it is post 113. Quiet impressive for a quick blurp. Reads more like a doctorate thesis.
For some reason, when I attempt to edit a post from my phone, it deletes vs editing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
short version is that i think sdsu faces a bad but tougher rush defense than they normally face, there is a chance at weather, the pace rates to be below average even if only slightly, two back up qb's and sdsu has a pretty good pass defense (maybe)
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Wasn't complaining about your reply. Read it through. Very sound logic. Just didn't want to lie, so was going to edit the 1 out. Thanks for all you do and Merry Christmas brother.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Game settled way down. 470+ yards first qtr but less than 200 2nd qtr. Most of the penalties favoring the under.
Haven't had a game yet this year with a ton of yards and stay under but we have had a ton of the opposite occurring .. boise st/niu low yardage over, appst/ohio low yardage over, byu/utah low yardage over ...
Still an outside shot at the middle
Haven't had a game yet this year with a ton of yards and stay under but we have had a ton of the opposite occurring .. boise st/niu low yardage over, appst/ohio low yardage over, byu/utah low yardage over ...
Still an outside shot at the middle
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Lol you must have a personal problem against Moore that you are not telling us.
He is more than capable. Threw for 500 in 3 quarters his first time playing
Him and Chapman, night n day
He is more than capable. Threw for 500 in 3 quarters his first time playing
Him and Chapman, night n day
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
Night n Day in two respects...Moore also has 8 interceptions in under 200 pass attempts. Aztec QB's haven't thrown an interception...at all...since week 2 of the season. Chapman was offensive player of the game v Air Force in the MWC title game...and he's more mobile than starter Smith. He isn't as polished as Moore, but he's hardly a stiff, esp after two weeks of bowl practices getting all the reps.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I guess I made a bad play at halftime of the Bahamas Bowl. I thought the game had settled into something different but with the middle opportunity being relatively small (though it looked doable starting the fourth qtr) and having a slight edge of value, maybe the play was wrong. I cannot second guess myself too much as I do well making halftime plays.
I didn't see any of the second half of the Hawaii Bowl but what I watched of the first half was the bearcats struggling and I suppose that probably continued. Opening kickoff for a td was disappointing. SDSU had a fine season and proved something tonight.
Duds I thought I was up front about liking Moore. I just think Gunner is considerably better when he is at full health. we get a few more years of watching him grow into an even better qb.
I didn't see any of the second half of the Hawaii Bowl but what I watched of the first half was the bearcats struggling and I suppose that probably continued. Opening kickoff for a td was disappointing. SDSU had a fine season and proved something tonight.
Duds I thought I was up front about liking Moore. I just think Gunner is considerably better when he is at full health. we get a few more years of watching him grow into an even better qb.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
SDSU plays real football They use the run to make the pass easy on their QB's and receiving options for that matter. Team is one of the best coached in all of football.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Actually the stats say it was a dead under ... 615 yards and just 37 first downs.
And it actually survived two nonoffensive TD's.
I knew that SDSU would win the turnover battle and they did 3-0.
it is sort of interesting but I found the boise game and sdsu game tough to handicap and there was a clear dominant side in each.
Anyway, onwards
And it actually survived two nonoffensive TD's.
I knew that SDSU would win the turnover battle and they did 3-0.
it is sort of interesting but I found the boise game and sdsu game tough to handicap and there was a clear dominant side in each.
Anyway, onwards
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Real quick thoughts on a few of the games
uconn/marshall - Uconn is slow paced and Marshall is relatively fast paced. Thing is, Uconn tends to control the pace of games and so I think it will be a ver slow paced game. Both teams are above average defensively. They are both average at defending the run. What is key here is that we have two teams who are both good at defending the pass. Uconn gives up about 6.1 yards per attempt and about 190 yards per game through the air and Marshall gives up about 5.6 yards per attempt and 200.8 yards per game. Both Teams are in the top 40 in the nation in preventing long plays from scrimmage and both teams are below average at creating long plays from scrimmage (especially uconn). uconn pretty poor in the yards passing per game and Marshall pretty average, Marshall pretty bad in the yards per attempt category and Uconn is pretty average. Marshall average running the ball, uconn not so good at it. So slow pace, the defenses rate to outperform the offenses no matter what they are trying, both teams fail to give up big plays, both teams are below average at creating big plays. and the underdog is not a team that turns it over a lot so you don't get the favorite getting a lot of short fields. uconn with a nice edge at fg kicker but for my purposes i am interested in the marshall fg woes .... especially since both defenses are in the top 20 in the nation as far as lowest red zone td percentages. Marshall has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation and uconn is coming off of three straight bad offensive performances. Almost everything points to the under here.
uconn/marshall - Uconn is slow paced and Marshall is relatively fast paced. Thing is, Uconn tends to control the pace of games and so I think it will be a ver slow paced game. Both teams are above average defensively. They are both average at defending the run. What is key here is that we have two teams who are both good at defending the pass. Uconn gives up about 6.1 yards per attempt and about 190 yards per game through the air and Marshall gives up about 5.6 yards per attempt and 200.8 yards per game. Both Teams are in the top 40 in the nation in preventing long plays from scrimmage and both teams are below average at creating long plays from scrimmage (especially uconn). uconn pretty poor in the yards passing per game and Marshall pretty average, Marshall pretty bad in the yards per attempt category and Uconn is pretty average. Marshall average running the ball, uconn not so good at it. So slow pace, the defenses rate to outperform the offenses no matter what they are trying, both teams fail to give up big plays, both teams are below average at creating big plays. and the underdog is not a team that turns it over a lot so you don't get the favorite getting a lot of short fields. uconn with a nice edge at fg kicker but for my purposes i am interested in the marshall fg woes .... especially since both defenses are in the top 20 in the nation as far as lowest red zone td percentages. Marshall has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation and uconn is coming off of three straight bad offensive performances. Almost everything points to the under here.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
wash st - Stats are relatively even but then you start looking at the match up and you find wash st. ....spread teams with the ability to pass like cin, clemson unc and neb just torched thr miami fl secondary this year. One of their best defensive players (carter) was suspended and that will make it all the easier to make plays in the passing game. ticket sales are really bad for this game and we could see weather which should suit wash st better than miami. lame duck coach at the helm of a team that loves to commit dumb penalties. Just avoid the turnovers and take a knee late (some of you know what i mean) and win the game. i think the wash st kid is a better qb than kaaya but kaaya does a great job of protecting the ball. I am a little concerned about the pac12 after utah looked horrible and arizona allowed the worst bowl team of 2015 hang around. I think Washington State is the better team, has a coach locked in who wants this game and miami has been a terrible bowl team for years now. I think Miami will be energized next year and with a solid QB and great coaching hire and plenty of talent. Miami wins have largely been against run based opponents and that doesn't apply here. Should be a great game to watch if Miami shows up ... if not, Miami gets beat fairly routinely. Wash St will show up, I am almost certain of that.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Washington and over - Just see this game as a gross mismatch and washington should benefit from extra practices with peterson in what is a pretty significant mismatch in coaching. usm has a capable offense so I am hoping they find 17 in the game somehow. I have little doubt washington reaches at least mid thirties. Washington should dominate along both the offensive and defensive line of scrimmage all game long. I will go ahead and call my shot that Washington returns an interception for a td in this game AND gets a sack fumble recovery.
Indiana/duke over and indiana big -- just continuing my backing of one of the elite teams from the big10 when healthy. They are more healthy now than at almost any point this year. They match up beautifully against the duke defense who will be without their best player and this team should be hungry for a bowl win as they battled to make it into this bowl. Duke will score as well but my pr has this way higher, my eye test has this way higher, and indiana is going to win the game tomorrow. I have had a good read on duke all year long and feel like i have a good read on the hoosiers as well. I am so much higher on indiana than market that this was almost assuredly going to be a team i would back come bowl season. I could go on and on about this game, the players involved and how they match up. I don't think there is a defense in america that would keep indiana off the scoreboard right now. Not even bama.
Indiana/duke over and indiana big -- just continuing my backing of one of the elite teams from the big10 when healthy. They are more healthy now than at almost any point this year. They match up beautifully against the duke defense who will be without their best player and this team should be hungry for a bowl win as they battled to make it into this bowl. Duke will score as well but my pr has this way higher, my eye test has this way higher, and indiana is going to win the game tomorrow. I have had a good read on duke all year long and feel like i have a good read on the hoosiers as well. I am so much higher on indiana than market that this was almost assuredly going to be a team i would back come bowl season. I could go on and on about this game, the players involved and how they match up. I don't think there is a defense in america that would keep indiana off the scoreboard right now. Not even bama.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
not gonna blurb the late games but who is ucla to be laying this to nebraska? I would love to hear why ucla should be laying this much. The stats and matchups come nowhere close to warranting it and nebraska has a coaching advantage with a coach who is familiar with pac13 football and upsetting southern california football teams.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
ucla-Neb -- I took Nebraska here and feel pretty good about it. The teams relative strength of schedules are very similar. As such, I feel their statistical comparisons lack the need for a ton of subjectivity. As I already stated, I like the coach for Nebraska over the coach for UCLA in this game. I like the fact he comes from the pac12 and I like that he knows how to win with lesser talent against pac12 teams. In this case, the corn are only slightly less talented than UCLA. I don't think this is a huge mismatch but I do think there is an edge. I also think there is an edge with motivation though I don't weight it a ton since I am so horrible at handicapping it (NIU I never saw coming for instance). Check this out:
UCLA 472.6 yards per game on offense
Nebraska 442.5 yards per game on offense
variance 30.1 yards per game
UCLA 6.22 yards per play on offense
Nebraska 6.08 yards per play on offense
variance 0.14 yards per play
UCLA 186.8 yards per game rushing
Nebraska 168.8 yards per game rushin
variance 18.0 yards per game
UCLA 5.1 yards per carry
Nebraska 4.6 yards per carry
variance 0.5 yards per carry
ucla gives up 393.5 yards per game
Nebraska gives up 401.6 yards per game
variance 8.1 yards per game
Ucla gives up 4.9 yards per play
Nebraska gives up 5.8 yards per play
Variance 0.9 yards per play
Ucla gives up 187.8 yards per game on the ground
Nebraska gives up 113.4 yards per game on the ground
variance 74.4 yards per game
UCLA gives up 4.3 yards per carry
Nebraska gives up 3.8 yards per carry
variance 0.5 yards per carry
UCLA gives up 5.7 yards per pass attempt
Nebraska gives up 7.4 yards per pass attempt
variance of 1.7 yards per pass attempt
UCLA gives up 205.7 yards per game passing
Nebraksa gives up 288.2 yards per game passing
variance of 77.5 yards per game
UCLA with a slight edge at FG kicker but Nebraska has been solid
Nebraksa with a slight edge at punter
Nebraska has defended third downs better
UCLA has slightly converted third downs better
Nebraska is -13 in turnover margin (wow)
UCLA is 8-4, 4-4 vs bowl teams
Nebraska is 5-7, 3-5 vs bowl teams
Note that Nebraska losses to bowl teams were by 5 (hail mary byu), 2 (wisconsin), 2 (northwestern) 3 (miami fl) and 8 (iowa). Their largest margin of defeat all year was to Purdue by 10 and that was because they were a minus five in turnovers.
My point here is that the records are misleading to their actual ability. Nebraska also blew a game against illinois because of a coaching error and then horrible defense late.
The teams had a common opponent in byu. BYU hit a hail mary against nebraska for a narrow margin win, ucla was losing and won late by 1 point. (so a game where ucla was somewhat outplayed and winning vs nebraska outplaying byu and giving it away ... in the common opponent alone you could make the case for 7-5 vs 6-7.
There simply isn't that much separating these two teams. UCLA is a deserved favorite as they have shown the ability to close games and the most glaring difference between the two teams is passing defense but there are some fluke plays in the nebraska numbers that skew those stats a tiny bit. Nebraska has been horrible in turnover margin as well. So if they can manage to break even in that department it will go a long ways as far as helping them have a good shot at this in the 4th qtr.
For comparison, Nebraska played dead even with wisconsin, usc beat up ucla ... usc -3 to wisconsin, ucla -6.5/7 to Nebraska.
No reason that Nebraska is not competitive in this game and no reason they shouldn't be motivated to play UCLA. I think UCLA will be motivated as well ... just looks like a 1 possession game to me and while ucla deserves to be the favorite, this is too many pts
UCLA 472.6 yards per game on offense
Nebraska 442.5 yards per game on offense
variance 30.1 yards per game
UCLA 6.22 yards per play on offense
Nebraska 6.08 yards per play on offense
variance 0.14 yards per play
UCLA 186.8 yards per game rushing
Nebraska 168.8 yards per game rushin
variance 18.0 yards per game
UCLA 5.1 yards per carry
Nebraska 4.6 yards per carry
variance 0.5 yards per carry
ucla gives up 393.5 yards per game
Nebraska gives up 401.6 yards per game
variance 8.1 yards per game
Ucla gives up 4.9 yards per play
Nebraska gives up 5.8 yards per play
Variance 0.9 yards per play
Ucla gives up 187.8 yards per game on the ground
Nebraska gives up 113.4 yards per game on the ground
variance 74.4 yards per game
UCLA gives up 4.3 yards per carry
Nebraska gives up 3.8 yards per carry
variance 0.5 yards per carry
UCLA gives up 5.7 yards per pass attempt
Nebraska gives up 7.4 yards per pass attempt
variance of 1.7 yards per pass attempt
UCLA gives up 205.7 yards per game passing
Nebraksa gives up 288.2 yards per game passing
variance of 77.5 yards per game
UCLA with a slight edge at FG kicker but Nebraska has been solid
Nebraksa with a slight edge at punter
Nebraska has defended third downs better
UCLA has slightly converted third downs better
Nebraska is -13 in turnover margin (wow)
UCLA is 8-4, 4-4 vs bowl teams
Nebraska is 5-7, 3-5 vs bowl teams
Note that Nebraska losses to bowl teams were by 5 (hail mary byu), 2 (wisconsin), 2 (northwestern) 3 (miami fl) and 8 (iowa). Their largest margin of defeat all year was to Purdue by 10 and that was because they were a minus five in turnovers.
My point here is that the records are misleading to their actual ability. Nebraska also blew a game against illinois because of a coaching error and then horrible defense late.
The teams had a common opponent in byu. BYU hit a hail mary against nebraska for a narrow margin win, ucla was losing and won late by 1 point. (so a game where ucla was somewhat outplayed and winning vs nebraska outplaying byu and giving it away ... in the common opponent alone you could make the case for 7-5 vs 6-7.
There simply isn't that much separating these two teams. UCLA is a deserved favorite as they have shown the ability to close games and the most glaring difference between the two teams is passing defense but there are some fluke plays in the nebraska numbers that skew those stats a tiny bit. Nebraska has been horrible in turnover margin as well. So if they can manage to break even in that department it will go a long ways as far as helping them have a good shot at this in the 4th qtr.
For comparison, Nebraska played dead even with wisconsin, usc beat up ucla ... usc -3 to wisconsin, ucla -6.5/7 to Nebraska.
No reason that Nebraska is not competitive in this game and no reason they shouldn't be motivated to play UCLA. I think UCLA will be motivated as well ... just looks like a 1 possession game to me and while ucla deserves to be the favorite, this is too many pts
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pitt/Navy - I think this was the worst job on the total by the linesmakers/market for the bowl season. I don't get it. I won't go overboard with stats but I will mention the key one .... Both teams are in the top ten of slowest teams in the nation from a pace perspective. I like the defensive minded coach for Pitt getting his team ready for the option attack of navy. Pitt already played an option team in Georgia Tech, though they were not completely successful at stopping it. So they have both experience against it and extra time to prepare for it. Just too slow of a game to be putting up mid-fifties.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Great call on the SDSU under.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Minn/cmich - There are a couple of key reasons I took the under in this game. Cmich is a slow paced team, Minnesota is an average paced team. Statistically Cmich an average offense and Minnesota a well below average offense but the two offenses played in drastically different conferences. central michigan was 125th in the nation running the ball getting roughly a hundred a game at just over 3 yards per carry ....while playing in a conference with much easier defenses to run on than Minnesota will be in this game. Another problem facing cmich is that given their inability to run, they are going to have to pass it a lot. I wonder how tired the Minnesota defense is going to be of hearing about the 7 td passes he threw in last years bowl game? Minnesota has been strong against the pass all year long. 182 yards per game allowed and just 6.0 yards per attempt allowed. They allowed just 13 td passes through the air all year long. So when you ask yourself the question about how Minnesota' defense matches up against what cmich likes to do, the answer is pretty well. Meanwhile, we know that the key to stopping Minnesota is to stop the run game. They are very run heavy. The thing is .. Cmich has been pretty good vs the run .. held ok st to 183, mich st to 181 and most importantly a relatively healthy niu to 211. And that is the other advantage here folks .. cmich knows the niu offense which is the same offense minnesota is running currently. This is not new bananas to them. Cmich ranked 30th against the run giving up about 4 yards per carry and just 138 yards per game. I worry that Minnesota is motivated and will blow the chips out but I cannot lay that kind of number with Minnesota in this one. Need Cmich defense to have a good first quarter (please receive opening kick) and keep the game competitive so that cmich at least attempts some level of balance. I also fear that cmich wears down against the running game of Minnesota. But cmich plays the bigten all the time and doesn't fear them at all. Should be a good defensive game and I actually think Minnesota covers the number though I cannot back that with a play.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
After seeing things mostly the same for the first 30% of bowl season, and seeing things largely the same in the January games, I think this next handful of contests will be where we have just a few differences. I haven't played any of these games and with the exception of 1 I probably won't so it doesn't matter much and I will be able to root for you, so in that respect its a good thing.
Marshall is one of those teams that has done much the opposite of what I have forecasted for them this season on a week to week basis. Struggle with teams they shouldn't struggle with, but then blow out teams I think can keep it close. I feel like you know what to expect within a relative range from UConn. 14-17 pts is probably what you can pencil them in for, and not much more or much less, anything below 13 or above 20 is probably an unreasonable expectation. The Herd are the far more volatile of the two and will likely determine the cover and total. I sort of think they go off here to be honest. I don't rate Marshall with much of a chance to have a big effort on the ground, and I think that will actually help the over. If you take away Marshall's ground game, their play calling and personnel start to look a lot more like BYU and Cincinnati who were the teams that gave the Huskies issues defensively. 31-17 Marshall feels right to me, but to be fair 17-14 UConn feels right too. The other thing you should expect from UConn is weird/trick plays. They fucking love doing them anyway, and now they have 3 weeks to get ready for a team that they know will be tough to score on when using their base offense. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few touchdowns in this game that are ridiculous in one way or another, be it special teams, defense, or trick plays. Marshall -5/47
WSU is the only side I could play, but as discussed I won't take Leach as a favorite unless the number and talent gap are clearly ridiculous. And this number isn't clearly ridiculous, nor is the talent gap. In fact, Miami has better football players. They don't always play better, and we know they aren't as well coached as the Cougars, but there just isn't enough here pointing to a clear edge to overcome Leach's in-game playcalling and horrible clock management. I haven't checked the up-to-date forecast, but as of last night there was a 50% chance or rain in El Paso with 15mph winds. Could snow, but not until the late evening. You can argue who the weather favors, WSU is from that same climate, but the winds could eff up their offense. I lean to the favorite and over in spite of my numbers, but I can't discern enough of an edge to warrant a bet either direction. WSU -1.5/61
I think Washington is going to rape Southern Miss in the face. So we see eye-to-eye on this one. The problem is the UW offense which comes and goes like the tide and moon. Nasty weather sounds like a real possibility and you can only argue that that favors one team. I actually lean under on this one a bit, but I will acknowledge its possible that UW goes for high 40s or 50s as they did vs OSU and WSU at the end of the year, and if that happens, it will go over as they aren't going to shut out USM I don't think. Neither here nor there with respect to this game, but everywhere I turn I'm seeing huge praise for Todd Monken. I can assure you that those people are saying that because of the improvement from the 0-12 season and the general direction of the program, and to that end I guess they're right, but there is no way those people would be saying that if they watched this team play. Monken makes a lot of egregious choices and he will be out-coached in a significant and horrifying way on the field tomorrow. Washington is going to win the Pac 12 North next year. Washington -11/52
I have to think Duke wants to actually win a bowl instead of just going. I wouldn't undersell them in this spot from the standpoint of motivation, especially that coach who we both know hates you and takes your bets personally. It also feels like another case of the market taking a position, running with the line, and just being totally dead wrong. I can't forecast a donkey game, but points may be tougher to find then they should be. I won't be shocked if one or both execute horribly on offense. I'll say 35-31 Duke and just hope I'm wrong on both for your sake. I won't be involved pre-game, but this feels like one where you can find something good after kick-off. Pick Em/65.5
VT -10.5/60.5. I spent some time on this one when it was first announced and realized I hate the matchup, and realized that there is no possibly way to play Tulsa even though that is where almost everyone agrees the line value is. Va Tech with a focused effort can win by as many as they can score on the ground. Of course they just suspended a starting linebacker. I couldn't play the under even though it looks right, but you already did so I know what I want to win, go defenses!!!! Terrible football game.
I still haven't made up my mind about Nebraska and UCLA believe it or not. In fact I barely have any leans yet. Sure could use an uninterrupted hour between now and kick-off, but I doubt I get it. UCLA -4.5/63.5
Marshall is one of those teams that has done much the opposite of what I have forecasted for them this season on a week to week basis. Struggle with teams they shouldn't struggle with, but then blow out teams I think can keep it close. I feel like you know what to expect within a relative range from UConn. 14-17 pts is probably what you can pencil them in for, and not much more or much less, anything below 13 or above 20 is probably an unreasonable expectation. The Herd are the far more volatile of the two and will likely determine the cover and total. I sort of think they go off here to be honest. I don't rate Marshall with much of a chance to have a big effort on the ground, and I think that will actually help the over. If you take away Marshall's ground game, their play calling and personnel start to look a lot more like BYU and Cincinnati who were the teams that gave the Huskies issues defensively. 31-17 Marshall feels right to me, but to be fair 17-14 UConn feels right too. The other thing you should expect from UConn is weird/trick plays. They fucking love doing them anyway, and now they have 3 weeks to get ready for a team that they know will be tough to score on when using their base offense. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few touchdowns in this game that are ridiculous in one way or another, be it special teams, defense, or trick plays. Marshall -5/47
WSU is the only side I could play, but as discussed I won't take Leach as a favorite unless the number and talent gap are clearly ridiculous. And this number isn't clearly ridiculous, nor is the talent gap. In fact, Miami has better football players. They don't always play better, and we know they aren't as well coached as the Cougars, but there just isn't enough here pointing to a clear edge to overcome Leach's in-game playcalling and horrible clock management. I haven't checked the up-to-date forecast, but as of last night there was a 50% chance or rain in El Paso with 15mph winds. Could snow, but not until the late evening. You can argue who the weather favors, WSU is from that same climate, but the winds could eff up their offense. I lean to the favorite and over in spite of my numbers, but I can't discern enough of an edge to warrant a bet either direction. WSU -1.5/61
I think Washington is going to rape Southern Miss in the face. So we see eye-to-eye on this one. The problem is the UW offense which comes and goes like the tide and moon. Nasty weather sounds like a real possibility and you can only argue that that favors one team. I actually lean under on this one a bit, but I will acknowledge its possible that UW goes for high 40s or 50s as they did vs OSU and WSU at the end of the year, and if that happens, it will go over as they aren't going to shut out USM I don't think. Neither here nor there with respect to this game, but everywhere I turn I'm seeing huge praise for Todd Monken. I can assure you that those people are saying that because of the improvement from the 0-12 season and the general direction of the program, and to that end I guess they're right, but there is no way those people would be saying that if they watched this team play. Monken makes a lot of egregious choices and he will be out-coached in a significant and horrifying way on the field tomorrow. Washington is going to win the Pac 12 North next year. Washington -11/52
I have to think Duke wants to actually win a bowl instead of just going. I wouldn't undersell them in this spot from the standpoint of motivation, especially that coach who we both know hates you and takes your bets personally. It also feels like another case of the market taking a position, running with the line, and just being totally dead wrong. I can't forecast a donkey game, but points may be tougher to find then they should be. I won't be shocked if one or both execute horribly on offense. I'll say 35-31 Duke and just hope I'm wrong on both for your sake. I won't be involved pre-game, but this feels like one where you can find something good after kick-off. Pick Em/65.5
VT -10.5/60.5. I spent some time on this one when it was first announced and realized I hate the matchup, and realized that there is no possibly way to play Tulsa even though that is where almost everyone agrees the line value is. Va Tech with a focused effort can win by as many as they can score on the ground. Of course they just suspended a starting linebacker. I couldn't play the under even though it looks right, but you already did so I know what I want to win, go defenses!!!! Terrible football game.
I still haven't made up my mind about Nebraska and UCLA believe it or not. In fact I barely have any leans yet. Sure could use an uninterrupted hour between now and kick-off, but I doubt I get it. UCLA -4.5/63.5
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thanks for the thoughts, Gar. I have been thinking I was going to play UCONN + but have decided to pass due to the volatility on the Marshall side. I already have U44 and that in a way is backing UCONN already and wouldn't wanna overinvest on a funky game.
Agree with you about Wash and their future next year as well as the weather really making this thing sweet for an under and favorite cover, odd as that is. I have tremendous fortune backing their regular season win totals over the past close to decade and I'll be backing them to win a lot next year and the North as you said
Agree with you about Wash and their future next year as well as the weather really making this thing sweet for an under and favorite cover, odd as that is. I have tremendous fortune backing their regular season win totals over the past close to decade and I'll be backing them to win a lot next year and the North as you said
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Gar, it doesn't sound like you have strong disagreement on most of it. Thanks for the thoughts.
I admit having concern about duke contributing enough to the total but I think Indiana's defense is bad enough that they can get mid twenties at least which should be enough for the game to go over. Won't be surprised if Indiana has 24-28 by halftime. Indiana is my second favorite play of the bowl season and second most amount of money (ole miss) I have put on any single game. And while I couldn't ever make that line double digits, I would actually be mildly surprised if it finished with duke within ten pts. I know that kind of doesn't make sense. There really isn't anything that could convince me that Indiana is not worth a play and is not significantly superior to what Duke will put on the field. I know both these teams too well this year to think duke is very good or that indiana is as bad. The recency is really bad for Duke too while Indiana is playing maybe the best football in the bigten right now.
VT total is the one where I have a bit of buyers remorse. The thing could easily go over on volume alone. And while beamerball is one of the biggest myths of the last decade, I just have a feeling they block one in this game and put it in my pooper. VT gonna be able to run on them all day long as you mention and tulsa will have a few big plays somewhere. Tough game to handicap with value on tulsa by pr but knowing the motivation edge rates to be huge.
Washington total is one where I just think I have the game figured out. Washington is going to have a lot of short fields in my estimation. USM tired badly late against wky and I can see this game snowballing on them. The concern is usm getting first downs and then punting ... being just good enough to waste clock.
I admit having concern about duke contributing enough to the total but I think Indiana's defense is bad enough that they can get mid twenties at least which should be enough for the game to go over. Won't be surprised if Indiana has 24-28 by halftime. Indiana is my second favorite play of the bowl season and second most amount of money (ole miss) I have put on any single game. And while I couldn't ever make that line double digits, I would actually be mildly surprised if it finished with duke within ten pts. I know that kind of doesn't make sense. There really isn't anything that could convince me that Indiana is not worth a play and is not significantly superior to what Duke will put on the field. I know both these teams too well this year to think duke is very good or that indiana is as bad. The recency is really bad for Duke too while Indiana is playing maybe the best football in the bigten right now.
VT total is the one where I have a bit of buyers remorse. The thing could easily go over on volume alone. And while beamerball is one of the biggest myths of the last decade, I just have a feeling they block one in this game and put it in my pooper. VT gonna be able to run on them all day long as you mention and tulsa will have a few big plays somewhere. Tough game to handicap with value on tulsa by pr but knowing the motivation edge rates to be huge.
Washington total is one where I just think I have the game figured out. Washington is going to have a lot of short fields in my estimation. USM tired badly late against wky and I can see this game snowballing on them. The concern is usm getting first downs and then punting ... being just good enough to waste clock.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
just lost a huge writeup on marshall not reaching 31 gar but we can talk it over aim or something if you want. basically they underperform to opposition average consistently while playing a litany of poor defenses. Uconn likely the best defense they will play this season unless you think kent state is superior. Nect closest would be someone like ohio .....
Also uconn doesnt turn it over and the defensive scores has been what has been generating pts for marshall this year.
it was a solid write up too, sigh
Also uconn doesnt turn it over and the defensive scores has been what has been generating pts for marshall this year.
it was a solid write up too, sigh
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I want to talk about Marshall some since it was brought up and I lost my writeup.
Marshall has the 64th ranked offense in terms of yards per game at 401.3
Marshall is 43rd in scoring, averaging 32.6 pts per game.
I want to show why the 32.6 pts per game is deceiving when it comes to facing uconn tomorrow.
1. They scored 41 on purdue but 14 of it was defensive scores. So 27 pts.
They had roughly 60 less yards than what purdue gave up per game this year.
2. They scored 10 vs Ohio.
They had roughly 111 yards less than what ohio gave up per game this year.
3. They scored 36 points against kent state which is probably the best defense they played all year.
The problem is that they only scored that many because they scored two td's in overtime.
They also had a kickoff return for a TD.
So in regulation they scored 22 points (kickoff return td and two pt conversion included)
And in regulation they had 227 yards which is 123 yards less than what kent st gave up per game this year.
So you can see the 36 pts scored here was a mission in hilarity.
4. They scored 27 on Old dominion.
They had 114 yards less than what old dominion gave up per game this year.
5. They scored 31 on southern miss.
They had 277 total yards of offense against usm which was 87 less yards than usm gave up per game this year.
Of the 277, 61 came on one play and of the 31, 7 came on a fumble recovery for a td.
6. They destroyed FAU. scored 33 and it should have been more
They had 500 yards which is 95 yards more than fau gave up per game
7. They scored 30 on unt
they had 402 yards, which was 100 yards less than what unt gave up per game
8. They scored 34 against charlotte.
They did have 630 yards of offense in this one so they should have scored more.
The 630 yards was 211 more than charlotte gave up per game
9. They scored 24 on mtsu.
The problem is that they had 17 at the end of regulation and the game went to 3ot
They had 515 yards in the triple overtime affair but they had to run 104 plays to get there!!!!
The 515 yards was about 110 yards more than what mtsu gave up per game. however, some of that came in the three overtime periods.
And I think we saw what the mtsu defense is all about against wmich
10. They somehow scored 52 pts on fiu with just 463 yards
The 463 yards was 57 more yards than what fiu gave up per game.
11. they scored 28 on wky.
They had 273 yards which was 132 less than what wky gave up per game.
They don't have a potent offense. Most opposing defenses do better than normal when facing Marshall. The herd do seem to be good at being efficient and capitalizing on opportunities but when you have face a who's who of bad defense and are only average statistically, you have some issues.
At some point a team just quits getting lucky. Uconn protects the ball and Marshall will have to go the length a few times for a change. Uconn has good pass defense. And look at the similar level defenses to uconn and how they performed here.... ohio , kent st, wky and usm were the highest rated defenses that Marshall played all year. Kentst was statistically the best they faced ranked 30th. They failed to reach 300 yards in regulation against any of them. Uconn defense is ranked 34th and have matched up well against the pass.
Just seems Marshall is going to quit lucking into pts somewhere and if they have to earn them, they haven't proved they are capable.
For full disclosure, Marshall offensive stats were not removed from overall statistics so the negative variance/trend for Marshall would be even worse if you removed their stats from the equation.
they can get to 31 .. they have proven they can do it with weird plays and turnovers and kick returns but it sure seems unlikely.
Marshall has the 64th ranked offense in terms of yards per game at 401.3
Marshall is 43rd in scoring, averaging 32.6 pts per game.
I want to show why the 32.6 pts per game is deceiving when it comes to facing uconn tomorrow.
1. They scored 41 on purdue but 14 of it was defensive scores. So 27 pts.
They had roughly 60 less yards than what purdue gave up per game this year.
2. They scored 10 vs Ohio.
They had roughly 111 yards less than what ohio gave up per game this year.
3. They scored 36 points against kent state which is probably the best defense they played all year.
The problem is that they only scored that many because they scored two td's in overtime.
They also had a kickoff return for a TD.
So in regulation they scored 22 points (kickoff return td and two pt conversion included)
And in regulation they had 227 yards which is 123 yards less than what kent st gave up per game this year.
So you can see the 36 pts scored here was a mission in hilarity.
4. They scored 27 on Old dominion.
They had 114 yards less than what old dominion gave up per game this year.
5. They scored 31 on southern miss.
They had 277 total yards of offense against usm which was 87 less yards than usm gave up per game this year.
Of the 277, 61 came on one play and of the 31, 7 came on a fumble recovery for a td.
6. They destroyed FAU. scored 33 and it should have been more
They had 500 yards which is 95 yards more than fau gave up per game
7. They scored 30 on unt
they had 402 yards, which was 100 yards less than what unt gave up per game
8. They scored 34 against charlotte.
They did have 630 yards of offense in this one so they should have scored more.
The 630 yards was 211 more than charlotte gave up per game
9. They scored 24 on mtsu.
The problem is that they had 17 at the end of regulation and the game went to 3ot
They had 515 yards in the triple overtime affair but they had to run 104 plays to get there!!!!
The 515 yards was about 110 yards more than what mtsu gave up per game. however, some of that came in the three overtime periods.
And I think we saw what the mtsu defense is all about against wmich
10. They somehow scored 52 pts on fiu with just 463 yards
The 463 yards was 57 more yards than what fiu gave up per game.
11. they scored 28 on wky.
They had 273 yards which was 132 less than what wky gave up per game.
They don't have a potent offense. Most opposing defenses do better than normal when facing Marshall. The herd do seem to be good at being efficient and capitalizing on opportunities but when you have face a who's who of bad defense and are only average statistically, you have some issues.
At some point a team just quits getting lucky. Uconn protects the ball and Marshall will have to go the length a few times for a change. Uconn has good pass defense. And look at the similar level defenses to uconn and how they performed here.... ohio , kent st, wky and usm were the highest rated defenses that Marshall played all year. Kentst was statistically the best they faced ranked 30th. They failed to reach 300 yards in regulation against any of them. Uconn defense is ranked 34th and have matched up well against the pass.
Just seems Marshall is going to quit lucking into pts somewhere and if they have to earn them, they haven't proved they are capable.
For full disclosure, Marshall offensive stats were not removed from overall statistics so the negative variance/trend for Marshall would be even worse if you removed their stats from the equation.
they can get to 31 .. they have proven they can do it with weird plays and turnovers and kick returns but it sure seems unlikely.
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