RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I guess I should start posting some thoughts on what I have gotten involved with so far....
New Orleans Bowl - Latech vs Ark State. This is a pretty interesting game and one that I could really see going a lot of different directions. I would be neither shocked by a high scoring game or a low scoring game or by either team winning. I took Arkansas State plus the points. Now, if you got both of these teams playing their best possible game from what they have shown this year, Latech is probably the better squad but the problem is that Latech has not been that team for some time and conversely the wolves have been on a tear the last two months, not just winning but taking care of business. Latech has a major hfa here imo. I have no idea if the crowd will be as boisterous as the ULL crowds but the louisiana based teams have a big edge in this bowl historically, winning games at times that they probably had no business winning. It is a factor and latech has sold out its bowl allotment. I think any time you are looking at a game with this ark st team you have to look at the opposing rush defense. On its face, Latech has been really good this year against the run. They only gave up 3.43 yards per carry and 114 yards per game which was good for 9th in fbs. But I don't think that tells the whole story. Western Kentucky 88th ranked, kstate 75th ranked, fiu 122nd ranked, ULL 64th ranked, UTSA 68th ranked,miss st 103rd ranked, middle tennessee 96th ranked, rice 59th ranked, north texas 82nd ranked, utep 98th ranked, and southern miss 41st ranked. So they basically played one team in the top half of the nation in terms of rushing the ball all year. Of course they are going to have good numbers against the run. Against that team in the top half, they gave up 169 and 4.69 yards per carry and lost. But there is another key factor in my estimation with regards to their rush defense. They lost LB Thomason, second team all -conference, in early November and their rush defense just hasn't been the same since. UTEP (Mighty Miners) ran for 226 and USM for 169 over their last two games. Ark St is just a different animal right now running the football. 4.97 yards per carry and 235 per game which has them ranked 14th nationally, and it would be better if they were not without SR QB knighten at the start of the year. They are somewhat of a machine right now and vastly superior to any rush offense latech has faced. Throwing out some of the early games without Knighten, the App St defense appears the most similar to latech and Arkst torched them with 309 on the ground. Meanwhile, Dixon is the key to the Latech team and success with winning. But over their last 8 games, latech has rushed for over 200 all of once, and that was against north texas, sorry i am not impressed. 138 ull, 93 utsa, 110 miss st, 166 mtsu, 135 rice, 119 utep and minus 2 usm in the other ones down the stretch. Not bueno. They have weapons on the outside and a decent scheme and Driskell will find yards and big plays against Arkansas State but he is coming off of a game where he threw a bunch of picks and Arkansas State is averaging more interceptions per game in their secondary than any team in the nation. In fact, I went back as far as 2008 and didn't find a team who had a season with more interceptions per game than what Ark State did this year. Their rush defense is 41st in the nation but against much better competition than latech ... I think one could argue the rush defenses in current health are very similar in talent. BTW, the Ark St receivers are not bad either. In the early bowls, I think recency matters quite a bit and these teams appear headed in different directions right now.
Ark st +2
P.S. I also think there is a decent chance that Ark St wears Latech down a bit late. They will be running all game and Latech's best scoring chances are likely to be bigger plays. I think the time of possession should favor ark st and give their defense better legs late for the key stop.
New Orleans Bowl - Latech vs Ark State. This is a pretty interesting game and one that I could really see going a lot of different directions. I would be neither shocked by a high scoring game or a low scoring game or by either team winning. I took Arkansas State plus the points. Now, if you got both of these teams playing their best possible game from what they have shown this year, Latech is probably the better squad but the problem is that Latech has not been that team for some time and conversely the wolves have been on a tear the last two months, not just winning but taking care of business. Latech has a major hfa here imo. I have no idea if the crowd will be as boisterous as the ULL crowds but the louisiana based teams have a big edge in this bowl historically, winning games at times that they probably had no business winning. It is a factor and latech has sold out its bowl allotment. I think any time you are looking at a game with this ark st team you have to look at the opposing rush defense. On its face, Latech has been really good this year against the run. They only gave up 3.43 yards per carry and 114 yards per game which was good for 9th in fbs. But I don't think that tells the whole story. Western Kentucky 88th ranked, kstate 75th ranked, fiu 122nd ranked, ULL 64th ranked, UTSA 68th ranked,miss st 103rd ranked, middle tennessee 96th ranked, rice 59th ranked, north texas 82nd ranked, utep 98th ranked, and southern miss 41st ranked. So they basically played one team in the top half of the nation in terms of rushing the ball all year. Of course they are going to have good numbers against the run. Against that team in the top half, they gave up 169 and 4.69 yards per carry and lost. But there is another key factor in my estimation with regards to their rush defense. They lost LB Thomason, second team all -conference, in early November and their rush defense just hasn't been the same since. UTEP (Mighty Miners) ran for 226 and USM for 169 over their last two games. Ark St is just a different animal right now running the football. 4.97 yards per carry and 235 per game which has them ranked 14th nationally, and it would be better if they were not without SR QB knighten at the start of the year. They are somewhat of a machine right now and vastly superior to any rush offense latech has faced. Throwing out some of the early games without Knighten, the App St defense appears the most similar to latech and Arkst torched them with 309 on the ground. Meanwhile, Dixon is the key to the Latech team and success with winning. But over their last 8 games, latech has rushed for over 200 all of once, and that was against north texas, sorry i am not impressed. 138 ull, 93 utsa, 110 miss st, 166 mtsu, 135 rice, 119 utep and minus 2 usm in the other ones down the stretch. Not bueno. They have weapons on the outside and a decent scheme and Driskell will find yards and big plays against Arkansas State but he is coming off of a game where he threw a bunch of picks and Arkansas State is averaging more interceptions per game in their secondary than any team in the nation. In fact, I went back as far as 2008 and didn't find a team who had a season with more interceptions per game than what Ark State did this year. Their rush defense is 41st in the nation but against much better competition than latech ... I think one could argue the rush defenses in current health are very similar in talent. BTW, the Ark St receivers are not bad either. In the early bowls, I think recency matters quite a bit and these teams appear headed in different directions right now.
Ark st +2
P.S. I also think there is a decent chance that Ark St wears Latech down a bit late. They will be running all game and Latech's best scoring chances are likely to be bigger plays. I think the time of possession should favor ark st and give their defense better legs late for the key stop.
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