time to post my 2015-2016 Bowls so far

I guess I should start posting some thoughts on what I have gotten involved with so far....

New Orleans Bowl - Latech vs Ark State. This is a pretty interesting game and one that I could really see going a lot of different directions. I would be neither shocked by a high scoring game or a low scoring game or by either team winning. I took Arkansas State plus the points. Now, if you got both of these teams playing their best possible game from what they have shown this year, Latech is probably the better squad but the problem is that Latech has not been that team for some time and conversely the wolves have been on a tear the last two months, not just winning but taking care of business. Latech has a major hfa here imo. I have no idea if the crowd will be as boisterous as the ULL crowds but the louisiana based teams have a big edge in this bowl historically, winning games at times that they probably had no business winning. It is a factor and latech has sold out its bowl allotment. I think any time you are looking at a game with this ark st team you have to look at the opposing rush defense. On its face, Latech has been really good this year against the run. They only gave up 3.43 yards per carry and 114 yards per game which was good for 9th in fbs. But I don't think that tells the whole story. Western Kentucky 88th ranked, kstate 75th ranked, fiu 122nd ranked, ULL 64th ranked, UTSA 68th ranked,miss st 103rd ranked, middle tennessee 96th ranked, rice 59th ranked, north texas 82nd ranked, utep 98th ranked, and southern miss 41st ranked. So they basically played one team in the top half of the nation in terms of rushing the ball all year. Of course they are going to have good numbers against the run. Against that team in the top half, they gave up 169 and 4.69 yards per carry and lost. But there is another key factor in my estimation with regards to their rush defense. They lost LB Thomason, second team all -conference, in early November and their rush defense just hasn't been the same since. UTEP (Mighty Miners) ran for 226 and USM for 169 over their last two games. Ark St is just a different animal right now running the football. 4.97 yards per carry and 235 per game which has them ranked 14th nationally, and it would be better if they were not without SR QB knighten at the start of the year. They are somewhat of a machine right now and vastly superior to any rush offense latech has faced. Throwing out some of the early games without Knighten, the App St defense appears the most similar to latech and Arkst torched them with 309 on the ground. Meanwhile, Dixon is the key to the Latech team and success with winning. But over their last 8 games, latech has rushed for over 200 all of once, and that was against north texas, sorry i am not impressed. 138 ull, 93 utsa, 110 miss st, 166 mtsu, 135 rice, 119 utep and minus 2 usm in the other ones down the stretch. Not bueno. They have weapons on the outside and a decent scheme and Driskell will find yards and big plays against Arkansas State but he is coming off of a game where he threw a bunch of picks and Arkansas State is averaging more interceptions per game in their secondary than any team in the nation. In fact, I went back as far as 2008 and didn't find a team who had a season with more interceptions per game than what Ark State did this year. Their rush defense is 41st in the nation but against much better competition than latech ... I think one could argue the rush defenses in current health are very similar in talent. BTW, the Ark St receivers are not bad either. In the early bowls, I think recency matters quite a bit and these teams appear headed in different directions right now.

Ark st +2

P.S. I also think there is a decent chance that Ark St wears Latech down a bit late. They will be running all game and Latech's best scoring chances are likely to be bigger plays. I think the time of possession should favor ark st and give their defense better legs late for the key stop.
 
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New Mexico Bowl

Arizona & Over - Well, they are betting unm like it is free money. I get it ... they are at home, they rate to be the more motivated team (though richrod turned down an sec job to stay at zona and they are playing for a winning season) and they did sprinkle in some good efforts in November. Not so fast my friends! New Mexico is just an awful defense. There is no way around it. FBS opponents averaged 464.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against the Lobos this year. But what is more amazing is that 9 of their 11 opponents averaged more yards per play against unm than their season average for yards per play, and not by a little but by a full half yard! They also fave their fbs opponents an average of 45 yards extra per game than their season average. Well Arizona is averaging 494 yards per game and over 6 yards per play. And it gets worse because the main problem that unm faces as a defense is a lack of athletes. I can say this with a great deal of confidence: barring shenanigans, Arizona is going to score on a high percentage of their possessions. Unfortunately the wildcats defense has been decimated by injury and have been nothing short of atrocious most of the year. Worse, they lack discipline often which does not bode well against the triple option. But this is huge class relief. This is the easiest opponent that team has faced since october 10th. And let's not kid ourselves, unm has gotten lucky. check out some of these wins

beat utah state by 1 despite being out gained by 58 yards ... wait for it ..... they had 236 yards of offense that game. They had 86 of those on a blown coverage td pass where the receiver was unguarded. The utah state fg kicker missed his first of the year, a 41 yarder and unm won.

beat boise state by 7 despite being out gained by .... wait for it .... 228 yards. Boise somehow only scored 24 with 641 yards of offense.

beat wyoming by 10 despite outgaining them by just 1 yard and ..... wait for it ... being out first downed 26 to 15.

beat hawaii by 1 despite being out gained and .... wait for it .... with a 27-21 lead and about 2 and half minutes to go, hawaii had the ball first and goal at the unm 6 yard line. They proceeded to miss a 22 yard fg and unm drove the field for a game winning score. Amazing.

I just don't believe the lobos are in the same class as Arizona. And this is not the normal case of the MW vs the Pac12. This is the worst the MW conference has ever been since I began following the conference and I have followed that conference closely for years.

There is a chance that UNM trades scores with Zona, and the backdoor will of course be open with that porous Zona D but I have to do this ... and I can hardly think of many ways that unm and under can come in.

Zona minus and the over.
 
Camelia Bowl - I played the under and it is largely a pace play. Both teams are in my top 40 slowest paced teams in the country. I have several concerns. Ohio has played decent run defense but have largely shut down bad rush offenses. Wmich style of rushing most resembles what app st runs and the bobcats got slapped around by the wmich run game. In addition, App st just has a really good running game which is better than anything ohio has seen all year. Tough for them to be expected to bow up completely but at least the App St oline is banged up. Another concern is the injuries to the Ohio defensive backfield. In the event that ohio has success stopping the run game, they still might give up a few plays in the passing game. If I told you that App st had better unadjusted defensive numbers than temple, louisville, penn state and florida state, you probably wouldn't believe me. If I told you that they held clemson to their lowest total yards of the year outside of the rain game against notre dame, you probably wouldn't believe me either. They did. Obviously they are not on the same defensive level as the team I mentioned above, having played a soft schedule, but they should be in good shape against this Ohio offense. The other factor I like is that Ohio has gotten back to running the football. They ran roughly 52% of the time through the first 8 games of the year and ran it 67% of the plays the last four games of the year. In other words, I look for a slower pace than the yearly average. The other factor to love is the third down defense of both teams ... Ohio is 17th in the nation giving up just 32.7% conversion rate and App State is 34th in the nation giving up just 35.0% conversion rate. Throw in that App State is number one in the nation in red zone defense and couple it with a bobcat kicker who missed four field goals in november and we can get some time consuming drives that do not end in points at all. Strong lean to app state here but with the oline being such a key component and being banged up, I wouldn't want to trust the Soph QB to get the job done even against the injured secondary of Ohio and it is a very difficult correlation to go under and lay over a td. i took what i preferred between the two .. under the total.
 
Las Vegas Bowl - local forecast has the wind ramping up to 10-12 mph right around kickoff. Not that horrendous by any stretch but it makes a cold day colder and it makes it harder to throw the football and that matters a lot. Utah will be without their stud RB, and BYU has as much chance of running it with a ton of success against Utah as I do of having a lot of success picking up Scarlett Johansson at the hard rock hotel after the game. BYU has something like the 108th best running attack in the nation and utah is 8th in rush defense. It just isn't going to happen. So with Utah missing the stud rb and byu being completely incapable of running it ... the worry will become a ton of pass plays which can result in big plays either for the offense or defense. Utah is slower paced (especially when leading) and BYU is slightly above average paced so if the game does turn into one where there are more plays than you would normally see (both teams passing more than normal), it should still not see an absolute ton of plays. So I mentioned that the wind could potentially be helpful if it arrives ... Utah WR Covey is not likely to arrive on the playing field. That is a weapon loss for the Utes. Meanwhile, given normal circumstances against average defenses, BYU is giving up almost 2.5 sacks per game and both Utah & BYU are in the top 20 in forcing sacks. Utes are missing some secondary pieces but this team has faced ucla, usc, cal, asu, and arizona passing attacks ... BYU scheme is nothing for them and given the knowledge they know that byu cannot run they can pin their ears back and fall back into coverage. BYU will have to win jump balls to succeed, granted they are good at that. So barring too many big plays in the passing game, it really lines up nicely for the under and the reason I like the Utes to win the game is because I prefer them along the line of scrimmage. Holy war ended in 2013 with four of the last five falling well under this total. There is some bad blood here and the officials are well aware of it, so I do fear some roughing the passers and late hit penalties extending drives fifteen yards a pop and I also don't like that both teams have good field goal kickers. Play on the under had to be made here and I am backing the Utes DL to control the line of scrimmage and make byu work harder to get first downs which should allow Utes to be the fresher team in the fourth quarter if BYU has hung in there. Also have to like that basically the whole staff is heading out to Virginia and while I don't doubt the maturity of 39 year old college kids, or their hatred for the utes to keep them focused, I can't be sure that the coaching staff can be. I think that gives an edge to Utah as well.
 
There are several different write ups concerning sjsu and georgia state around here and so I won't get into this one a ton since I agree with most. I am not a fan of the SJSU QB play, though it improved some throughout the year. Their RB is good but Georgia State is coming off a good rush defense performance against a better running game with more weapons in it. They should be able to focus on Ervin and at least hold him to a really good game rather than a dominating one. Meanwhile, Arbuckle seems motivated here, and the team seems motivated here. SJSU far more battle tested but I am going with the hotter team and the team I think will be more motivated. SJSU would have greatly benefitted from playing on december 29th or thereabouts like nevada and csu as they are loaded with one of their best recruiting classes ever and the extra practices would have been great for them. As it stands, the two teams are who they are. I think GaSt has the better chance at the big play in the passing game. Game should be tight and I would rather have Arbuckle than Potter in the fourth.
 
I will be cheering for Ga St more than any other team in bowl season besides ole miss (financial reasons). They currently hold a special place in my heart.
 
I might be bailing on some overs if some of my weather information pans out .. wky game (if it is bad weather with wind usf wins easy and it goes under), wmich game, and bowling green game .....
 
I'll have Scarlet call you. Owes me a favor.
She's very generous.

Good luck this bowl season.
 
I watched it. Always makes me smile when I see Pete Carrol cry. :tiphat:


Same. I love the quotes from multiple usc guys talking about how had they gone up two scores in the first half the game would be out of reach and then they blow a 12 pt lead mid-4th. VY :notworthy:
 
I will probably end up on Memphis in some capacity but I hate taking 2.5 even when I suspect it will move down more. The juice on this particular half pt at my outs is a bit too expensive ... so gonna wait it out and pray SEC money comes in on Auburn. I will be stuck with having to decide whether to take it at a worse number when I could have had 2.5 at some point but I am going to remain patient and pray.
 
Miami Beach Bowl - I played Wky and over. I won't write this one up but I am basically looking to back the senior class for wky who seem to be on a mission right now, and Doughty who has just put up insane numbers. I think there were two games this year where wky didn't hit 30, the opener against vandy and the game in the rain against lsu. USF rush defense has been good all year but they have struggled at times to stop potent passing attacks ... The Western Kentucky pass attack ranks up there with the Memphis and Cincinnati pass attacks (though different in style) as one of the best in cfb. bearcats and tigers both threw for over 300 and usf for the year gave up 6.3 ypa or more in 8 of their 11 games vs fbs opponents. USF offense has taken off the second half of the year and they are running it at people. While wky has been pretty good against the run this year, they have played against a bunch of teams who are better at passing the ball for the most part. I think the Mack truck will give Wky some issues and they haven't really faced much in the way of QB's who can hurt them with their legs. But at the end of the day, in what should be a competitive and fun game to watch, I like the motivation for a wky team that seems to be on a mission and would rather have the ball in Doughty's hands if the first half went bad compared to in the hands of Flowers. It also helps that there is a big edge to Wky in the field goal game as well if it is a closely played game. I am having bahamas bowl flashbacks here when i had the toppers last year so i will quit talking about this one. If Mack doesn't destroy wky, it could get away from usf ... do not see a way, other than a doughty injury, for wky to not compete. As for the total, USF in the top ten in long rushing plays from scrimmage and wky had 69 pass plays of over 20 yards this year. There will be some big plays in this game. Also, Doughty is just 5 TD passes away from getting 50 in a season ..... it's possible
 
I will be cheering for Ga St more than any other team in bowl season besides ole miss (financial reasons). They currently hold a special place in my heart.

1000% agree with this post and still thank you for that GaSt ML over GaSo write up:cheers3:
 
was at that game and never get tired of seeing it again, one of the best experiences ever

So jealous. My odd memory there was being at the palms to watch the game and after it ended I saw Frank Thomas walking around.
 
Thoughts on Nebby and NC St? This is the time to take nebby as a TD dog rather than a -3 favorite, or even a -9 favorite and losing outright. Would love to hear NC St thoughts as I thought that line should be a bit higher. BOL today!
 
I will be cheering for Ga St more than any other team in bowl season besides ole miss (financial reasons). They currently hold a special place in my heart.

Indeed. I mentioned in another thread - pretty amazing story - from 2012 thru Nov. 7, 2015, they were 4-39 straight up. That's 4-39. But they won their last 4 this season including a big upset of Georgia Southern, 34-7. Win this game and they'd have a winning record for the season, which would be a hell of an achievement.
 
I stole the format from Dwights thread. I like it better than what I was doing and by copying and pasting I don't have to type it all out.


Army vs Navy
Plays for this game: 1h under 25.5 LOSER
0-1

Arizona vs New Mexico
Plays for this game: Arizona -9 & over 64.5 (thoughts post 52)

BYU vs Utah
Plays for this game: Utah -2.5 -115 & under 52.5 (thoughts post 54)

Ohio vs Appalachian St
Plays for this game: Under 55 (thoughts post 53)

SJSU vs GA St
Plays for this game: Georgia State ML +130

Arkansas St vs La Tech
Plays for this game: Arkansas State +2 (Thoughts post #51)

Western KY vs South Florida
Plays for this game: Western Kentucky -2 & over 66

Akron vs Utah St
Plays for this game: under 48.5

Toledo vs Temple
Plays for this game: Toledo +2

Boise vs Northern Illinois
Plays for this game:


GA Southern vs Bowling Green
Plays for this game: Georgia Southern 7.5 & Over 66

MTSU vs Western Michigan
Plays for this game: Over 62.5

Cincinnati vs SDSU
Plays for this game:


UCONN vs Marshall
Plays for this game: Under 44

Miami vs Washington St
Plays for this game: Washington State -2.5

Southern Miss vs Washington
Plays for this game: Washington -8.5 & over 55.5

Indiana vs Duke
Plays for this game: Indiana -1.5 Big & over 67

Tulsa vs Virginia Tech
Plays for this game: under 62

Nebraska vs UCLA
Plays for this game: Nebraska +7

Pittsburgh vs Navy
Plays for this game: under 56

CMU vs Minnesota
Plays for this game: Under 49.5

Air Force vs California
Plays for this game:


Baylor vs UNC
Plays for this game: UNC +2

Nevada vs Colorado St
Plays for this game: Under 56

Texas Tech vs LSU
Plays for this game: LSU -7

Memphis vs Auburn
Plays for this game: over 63.5

NC State vs Mississippi St
Plays for this game: NC State +5

Louisville vs Texas A&M
Plays for this game: louisville pick

Wisconsin vs USC
Plays for this game: USC -3 & Under 50.5

Houston vs Florida St
Plays for this game: over 54

Michigan St vs Alabama
Plays for this game: Alabama -9.5

Clemson vs Oklahoma
Plays for this game: Over 66

Tennessee vs Northwestern
Plays for this game: Northwestern 8

Florida vs Michigan
Plays for this game:


Notre Dame vs Ohio St
Plays for this game: ND +7 -120 & over 54

Iowa vs Stanford
Plays for this game:


Ole Miss vs Oklahoma St
Plays for this game: Ole Miss -6.5 Big

Penn St vs UGA
Plays for this game: Penn State 7 -120

Kansas St vs Arkansas
Plays for this game: under 59.5

TCU vs Oregon
Plays for this game:


West Virginia vs Arizona St
Plays for this game: ASU -1 & under 66.5

Thanks for another Bowl thread with some very interesting picks
BOL VK

:shake:
 
Thoughts on Nebby and NC St? This is the time to take nebby as a TD dog rather than a -3 favorite, or even a -9 favorite and losing outright. Would love to hear NC St thoughts as I thought that line should be a bit higher. BOL today!


I don't know if I will end up writing it up.. but the short reasoning is that Miss St. cannot run the ball and the wolfpack have a good statistical pass defense (though a lot of acc teams do because the pass offenses are so bad in that league). NCstate much better at running the ball. Basically have the better defense and the better rushing attack and while I realize that doesn't make for the same great dog situation it did in years past, I will take a shot here. Miss St QB could go off but with extra time to prepare and miss st being one dimensional, I think ncstate can stay competitive in the game. Bulldogs are kind of strange in that they didn't play in too many close games this year and ncstate usually lost handily when they were the lesser but I think this is a one possession game late. Also one of those games where ncsu has a veteran qb who is going to be hearing about the other guy over and over again leading into the bowl. Tough game to handicap really ... both side and total in that way
 
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2h App st -6.5 -120

Added some app st 2h at 6.5juiced and 7 +100. They are dominating the football game and trailing.
 
Sorry for the utah pick. At least it won. But it was a horrible selection and horrifically handicapped.
 
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2h App st -6.5 -120

Added some app st 2h at 6.5juiced and 7 +100. They are dominating the football game and trailing.

Bobcats D doesn't look too bad, they're getting off the field anyway. I bet OU, so looking at it through Bobcat eyes.

Thanks for all the write-ups, etc., clown, really helpful.
 
I'm a little frustrated. I feel like out of 11 bets, 8 of them have been clearly the right side, and I won a game where I was on the wrong side (Utah) and yet somehow I am down for the bowl season. So Frustrating.

I will give a blurb on tomorrow's games shortly
 
Idaho Potato Bowl

I took Akron +7 and the under- Utah State is slightly below average in pace and Akron is one of the 20 or so slowest teams in the nation. I admit it is hard to take an under in the bowls this year (1 cash?) but this seems to have the ingredients. Utah State averages just 203 yards per game passing and 168 yards per game rushing the football this year making them the 91st ranked offense in college football. Their 5.5 yards per play is below average as well. Their 29.7 pts per game is pretty average. So obviously Utah State is scoring way more points than their offense should be generating. Well, they have gotten their fair share of lucky & forced turnovers is the answer to that. Akron has been pretty good at taking care of the football though and taking it away. They had just 17 turnovers all year and took it away 25 times. Their turnover margin was second best in their conference. Akron is just one of four teams that gave up less than 100 yards per game on the ground this year along with Alabama, Boston College and Wisconsin. Take a look at Utah State rushing numbers vs good rush defenses.

Utah 117
washington 83
boise st 177 (43 carries just 4.12 yards per carry because they were up big early. They gave up runs of 39 and 48 which leaves 90 yards on the other 41 carries. Now, those runs count and they are important to an extent when it comes to making big plays but there is no consistency to their run game in the Boise state game so don't be fooled by 177 yards in a game they led huge early because the broncos shat themselves.)
SDSU 144 4.0 yards per carry.
BYU 43 carries 202 yards 4.7 per carry.

So those are the five games against quality rush defenses and what they did on the ground. What those games all have in common is that Utah State lost them all except for the Boise State game which was hilarity. In their other two losses, against afa and unm they ran for 78 and 75 respectively. In other words, if Utah State cannot run well, they struggle to win. In their fbs wins, they ran for 298, 201, 177, 296, and 204. Akron's high allowed is 161... they oklahoma to 100, pitt to 117 early and then largely played bad rush offenses.

I don't think utah state can exploit Akron enough in the passing game to make up the difference either.

Akron's offense doesn't rate to do much either. I won't bore you with more stats but trust me when i say utah states defense matches up well. Throw in the fact that both teams have bad field goal kickers and we could easily see a turnover in the red zone (i heard there can be turnovers on offensive plus side of the 50 .... I heard) and we could see some scoreless drives when they do make progress against one another.

So I basically see a really low scoring game where a play or two makes the difference as to who wins and the points should hold a lot of value. Btw ... recency is good for Akron and not so much for Utah State.
 
Toledo doesn't need much of a writeup. I am just taking the better team with a plus sign. Temple is one of the most over-hyped teams of the season. They beat Penn State ( a team I am backing in a bowl game against the SEC) behind 317 yards of total offense and that is their signature win. Check out their other performances of note:

They beat the bearcats, a bowl team ... oh but they were outgained by 261 yards and the bearcats had 21 more first downs. Yikes.
They beat Umass by two .. also had all of two more yards of offense than umass
They beat ecu by 10 ... they were out gained by 56 yards and ecu had 7 more first downs
They lost to notre dame by only 4 which is impressive ... but they were out gained by 172 yards
USf out gained them by over 200 yards
They completely shut down Lynch and Memphis. Credit to them there.
They held uconn to 138 total yards of offense. Credit to them there.
They actually out gained houston in defeat.

They have a good defense but the team just isn't that good.


Toledo's defense is giving up about a quarter of a yard more per play on defense this year than Temple did. Toledo's offense is gaining over a half yard more per play than temple on average.


Wrong team is favored here and has to be the more motivated team. Temple v Penn State, Temple v Notre Dame, and Temple losing their shot to play FSU when they lost to houston in the conf title game.
 
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Bowling Green/Georgia Southern 1h under 32

Looks to be bad weather. I told you I would bail on this most likely if it looked like bad weather but I am going to try for the 1h under instead ... taking a little extra risk. My theory here is that both teams might be a bit slower in getting the plays in during the 1h as compared to the 2h given the coaching shuffle. I also think this should be a close game so I left myself the shot of a low scoring game hitting overtime.

Georgia Southern and over were played originally for a few reasons.. pr was one. But my buddy Garfather has been telling me about MAC defenses and struggling when facing the option attack. I have been following the angle for a few years now and I believe took an over or two to success backing the angle this year. Georgia Southern took a game off and should be ready to perform better here in their bowl. Their finale left them nothing to play for.

Tough game to figure out and somehow I have three bets on it and one is on an under and one is on an over ...... Damn you Al Gore and your Weather Machine!
 
GL today sir.
BSU/NIU is a tough nut to crack. I literally have no interest in that one. Might be the first I lay off.
 
Add

Bowling Green/Georgia Southern 1h under 32

Looks to be bad weather. I told you I would bail on this most likely if it looked like bad weather but I am going to try for the 1h under instead ... taking a little extra risk. My theory here is that both teams might be a bit slower in getting the plays in during the 1h as compared to the 2h given the coaching shuffle. I also think this should be a close game so I left myself the shot of a low scoring game hitting overtime.

Georgia Southern and over were played originally for a few reasons.. pr was one. But my buddy Garfather has been telling me about MAC defenses and struggling when facing the option attack. I have been following the angle for a few years now and I believe took an over or two to success backing the angle this year. Georgia Southern took a game off and should be ready to perform better here in their bowl. Their finale left them nothing to play for.

Tough game to figure out and somehow I have three bets on it and one is on an under and one is on an over ...... Damn you Al Gore and your Weather Machine!

Really interesting angle on the playcalling I hadn't thought too much about that. I suppose 17-14 GS at the break would be a nice way to usher in Christmas! GL today I'll take two low scoring wins from the dogs as well.
 
GL today sir.
BSU/NIU is a tough nut to crack. I literally have no interest in that one. Might be the first I lay off.


I think it is probably lined and totaled about as good as any of the earl to mid bowls. Cinci/sdsu also lined tough for the bettor.
 
Really interesting angle on the playcalling I hadn't thought too much about that. I suppose 17-14 GS at the break would be a nice way to usher in Christmas! GL today I'll take two low scoring wins from the dogs as well.


34-0 would be bad
 
completely right about Toledo, was fighting back throwing more on them when it went to 3. keep it up my man
 
Great calls on Akron and Toledo. I am still kicking myself for not playing Akron. I wanted to do it but some idiotic voice in my head kept saying, "Nooooo...it's Akron and they can't score against a good defense...." You are gaining momentum and the freight train is on the tracks. Look out books.

I knew you'd be on Indiana, and I know Duke can't stop a good offense, but my handicapping exercises are making me nervous about that game. Will there be a writeup on that one?
 
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