Thursday Maction Bowl Discussion

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
With 2 MAC teams going, I think Thursday will be an interesting night. I see lots of MAC haters out there, and deservedly so after the performances by Buffalo and Ohio. Tonight, we will see two of the MAC's best: BG and NIU.

BG:

I like BG tonight. Some concerns about the line moving to 7, so I'll wait to see if folks bring this back down once they come home from work. I'm guessing they will. BG's defense is for real. They've given up 44 total points in their last 5 games. 27 of those were to NIU, who BG generally shut down most of the game. I realize the layover could affect their momentum, but I still think this team feels under appreciated. Folks are talking about how their win against NIU was an "upset." I disagree. This team still doesn't get enough recognition, and I feel they will want to prove themselves tonight.

Pitt is bringing an anemic rushing offense to the table tonight, averaging under 3yrds per carry on the road. There's been some talk about Pitt playing tougher opponents than BG, but the ACC isn't really that good of a conference. Taking a look at Pitt's schedule, they struggled against Virginia (a 2-10 team), only managing 8 rushing yards. And they managed only 21 rushing yards against a 6-6 Syracuse team.

If BG can make Pitt one dimensional, Pitt is in trouble, especially with one of Pitt's top WRs OUT for today. BG is 4th in FBS, allowing just 166 passing yards per game.

The under appreciated theme carries over to BG's offense. Here's a great article about how BG's QB, Johnson, is pissed that PITT did not recruit him because of his size: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...missed-out?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE.

Johnson is having a very solid year and he seemed to get better later in the year: 14tds and 4int in his last 5 games. He also outplayed Lynch in the NIU game.

Outcome:

There shouldn't be many concerns about BG's motivation today. Despite beating a potential BCS bowl team and winning the MAC, this team still isn't getting the national recognition they deserve. They probably still won't after tonight UNLESS they embarrass PITT, which I think they can and will want to do.

I'd be more concerned about the coaching situation if this team wasn't very good, but BG has a legitimate team and the players won't need any extra pep talk or leadership to get up for this game.

Concerning the venue, BG beat NIU on this same field in the MAC championship, so they should be very comfortable here. While not huge, it's an added edge for BG.

I don't see PITT putting up more than 14-17 points tonight. With the way BG's offense has been clicking, I think they can put up 28-31 easily. So I feel pretty good about a BG cover.
 
On paper I love BGSU to death, but from a situational standpoint (paramount in bowls) I can't back em....your 20, you''re losing your coach and your reward for winning your conference? A 2nd trip back to fucking Detroit a day after Xmas!
 
Any idea how many of them were dogs in the MAC 'ship game? Just wondering about their reaction tonight after pulling the upset in their GOY against NIU.
 
Split right down the middle: 1-1 SU and ATS as the fave in the BG after lined as the dog in the championship; 3-3 SU and ATS overall after being lined as the dog in the championship.
 
NIU:

I don't like NIU tonight. Their season has been quite the opposite of BG. I thought NIU has been overrated all year, and they were exposed against BG in the title game. My main concern with NIU is their defense. It's atrocious. They are 90th in total defense. They gave up 47 points to BG in the title game, and they gave up 39 and 35 points to Eastern Illinois and Idaho, respectively. Utah St. has fared well without their starting QB since his injury. Freshman QB, Garrettson, is playing well. He is coming off a concussion, but he will play tonight. Considering NIU cannot stop even the weakest teams in D-I, I'm not concerned about Utah St. scoring points in this game.

NIU's offense is dynamic, led by Lynch who is a great college player. But Utah St.'s defense is very solid, ranking 7th in scoring defense averaging around 17 ppg. Utah St.'s defense is giving up right around 3 yards per carry, and their rush D is equally stout on the road. The defense looks very similar to what NIU saw in BG in the title game, and NIU did not fare well there. I also like Utah St.'s effort against Fresno in the MWC title game, forcing that equally dynamic offense into 5 turnovers, while allowing only 24 points. Before that loss, Utah St. had won 5 straight behind their freshman QB. So that loss is not an indication as to the direction this team is going.

Outcome:

I think Utah St. wins tonight.

I don't see how NIU has any motivation coming into this game. They had high hopes this year, and their goal was an undefeated season and playing in a BCS bowl game. Instead, they get Utah St. in the Poinsetta Bowl. It's almost comical. Lynch will be the best player on the field, which is always key, but I really don't think he's playing for any additional scouting cred. NFL scouts have already determined that his position won't be QB in the NFL. He can't do anything tonight to change that. It's his final game as a college player, which is special, so I'd be surprised if he put in a clunker. But I just don't see NIU's offense being able to put up a huge game against a very good Utah St. defense.

A note on Utah St's head coach, Matt Wells. He is only 40 years old and in his first season as a head coach. He was named MWC coach of the year. Despite the disappointing loss in the MWC championship, there should be plenty of motivation for this guy to want to get his first bowl victory of his career. Here's a decent article on Wells, and the team's goal to win back to back bowl games: http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...ells-crucial-to-Aggies-success-this-year.html

Ultimately, I think Utah St.'s defense will mirror what BG did to NIU. Both defenses are equally stout, especially against the run. NIU has shown us nothing all year defensively, and all signs point to Utah St. being able to move the ball against this poor defense. I see Utah St. scoring in the 30's tonight. I think their defense, which only gives up 17ppg, can at least contain Lynch and hold NIU to 4td's or less.
 
I thought that trend was interesting and that the line opened at 5.5.

Very interesting. I'd like to lay under 7. Vegas really wants action on Pitt here at 7. I think a casual bettor will take the ACC team getting a touchdown over the MAC team, and I think the line will come down closer to game time.
 
Very interesting. I'd like to lay under 7. Vegas really wants action on Pitt here at 7. I think a casual bettor will take the ACC team getting a touchdown over the MAC team, and I think the line will come down closer to game time.

Yeah, I mean, you can go look at the history of MAC teams versus the ACC and see that they are only 11-45 SU against them since 1980. But the spread in those games was an average of 20 points in favor of the ACC teams. Marshall was lined as a 2.5 point favorite over Clemson back in 1999, and won 13-10. Aside from that, this will be the only time in the past 30 years a MAC team has been lined the favorite against the ACC. This will only be the second bowl game matchup between these two conferences in the last 30 years as well, the first one being NIU v FSU last season. And FSU kicked the shit out of them as 14-point favorites.
 
Little Caesars Bowl (Detroit, MI): Who will WIN this matchup?
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NCF
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[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents"] Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)[/TD]
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[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]8.5%[/TD]
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[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents last"] Bowling Green Falcons (10-3)[/TD]
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[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]91.5%[/TD]
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