Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 14 Thu 2022

12:10 PM
951Pittsburgh PiratesZ. Thompson -R+1½
-155		+141O 7½
-120
952Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L-1½
+135		-153U 7½
+100
03:10 PM
953San Diego PadresB. Snell -L-1½
+110		-128O 11½
-110
954Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1½
-130		+118U 11½
-110
07:05 PM
955Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R-1½
-135		-205O 9½
+100
956Washington NationalsA. Sanchez -R+1½
+115		+188U 9½
-120
07:05 PM
975Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R+1½
-125		+175O 8
-110
976New York YankeesN. Cortes -L-1½
+105		-191U 8
-110
07:15 PM
957Los Angeles DodgersT. Anderson -L-1½
+105		-145O 9
-105
958St. Louis CardinalsD. Hudson -R+1½
-125		+134U 9
-115
07:40 PM
969Chicago White SoxJ. Cueto -R+1½
-150		+139O 8½
-110
970Minnesota TwinsS. Gray -R-1½
+130		-151U 8½
-110
08:05 PM
959New York MetsC. Carrasco -R-134
960Chicago CubsK. Thompson -R+124
08:07 PM
973Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L-1½
+108		-151O 8
-105
974Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L+1½
-128		+139U 8
-115
09:45 PM
961Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
+170		-108O 6
-118
962San Francisco GiantsC. Rodon -L+1½
-195		-102U 6
-102
 
Gotta hope for a low strike out number for Garrett then just play over cause pirates whiff so much vs lhp, dont really see how they make it more than 3.5 which I’d play over.,


Dunno who ump gonna be in stl but def lean over 9.

Castillo k’s If not too high.

Should be a fantastic pitchers duel in San Fran.
 
Going to Braves/Nats tomorrow. Should be a fun night. Will bet small on the Braves just for rooting interest.
 
1st game I recall this year with both pitchers k’s being 7.5! Burnes/Rodon obviously. 1st 6 total I recall in some time also, Totally justified imo. Rodon over 7.5 k’s I think the better of the 2 just cause milw struggles vs lhp, 23rd in mlb ops against lhp and they fan almost 27% the time.
 
Still sick over way cards blew gm2 leaving their best reliever on the bench! You gotta send out your best when ya got a 1 run lead on best team in the NL!! No idea why they refuse to have 1 guy locked in as the closer? 1st of the year it made sense but now that Heisly has established himself as one the best relievers in baseball it stupid we continue playing musical chairs at the position!! Didn’t even lose money, just annoyed me as a fan to give that game away!

Anyways, now they need Hudson to be good and go deep, I’m not sure I see either happening. I do think the offense will get to anderson tho. If hudson can’t go more than 5 innings it gonna be a real problem. This feels like a dead over to me as i don’t see anderson having much success either against a good lhp hitting team.
 
Pricks came w a 4.5 for Garrett, not exactly stoked to need 5 k’s to cash but I do think it still the right play. His swinging strike is pretty solid and he should go 5+ innings vs pirates lineup who collectively have one the worst ops in league vs lhp, they have the most strikeouts against lhp, and fan around 28% the time vs lhp. Don’t think it unreasonable at all that he punches out 1 per inning in this game and think he pitches into the 6th inning.
 
Freeland total outs ov 16.5 super tempting but his day splits throughout his career ain’t great. Even tho his era considerably higher in day games this year he still averaging almost 6 innings a start in those 6 day games, averages well over 5 innings a start in coors, he has went 6+ in both his starts vs pads this year, and he has went this deep in 11 of his last 13 starts including his last 8! His k’s over 3.5 ain’t bad either and I think a pretty good case to play rox Ff at least, rox hit lefties way better than pads and Snell has never had much success at coors, tough to pass up plus money there. This def feels like a game with several bets in it!
 
inZane said:
This should be interesting.

sports.yahoo.com

Royals to miss 10 unvaccinated players for Blue Jays road series

Kansas City will be missing about two thirds of its starting lineup this weekend.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
Click to expand...

Last year I woulda said what a bunch of clowns but after getting vaxed then learning 1st hand it don’t Fuckin work it tougher to blame anyone for not! Lol: guess they gonna be calling up bunch of minor leaguers and we gonna see -300 or higher lines?
 
2daBank said:
Last year I woulda said what a bunch of clowns but after getting vaxed then learning 1st hand it don’t Fuckin work it tougher to blame anyone for not! Lol: guess they gonna be calling up bunch of minor leaguers and we gonna see -300 or higher lines?
Click to expand...
Maybe some good under plays.
 
Jfc. Braxton Garrett up to ov4.5 k’s -160. I can’t play him at that price. I think he gets 5 but I think the edge has been sucked out of that number. Bigger edge on Burnes outs at -240, I think they bout 10% light on Burnes, there no way I’m gonna tell y’all Garrett has over 70% chance of fanning 5 even w a great matchup! (With -160 implying shade above 61%). Think the market took any value out of that 1 before I had a chance to get down on it, whatever, I wasn’t super pumped to play ov 4.5 even at a good price.
 
I guess it was just a scheduling quirk that Burnes hasn’t pitched for 7 days? It doesn’t worry me much, over his career he been fine when on 6+ days, his k/bb isn’t quite as good and he did have 1 start on longer rest this year that wasn’t very good but can’t find it, assuming it was early in the season before he hit his stride? His total outs price has actually gotten bet down a bit, -215 now. Think there about as much value in this price as you will find on a mlb play with -200 or higher juice! Last 2 years he has pitched 6 innings or more in 80% his starts including 2 vs San Fran last year! Not like giants are just mashing either, they middle the pack for team ops in July at .718. No clue why they choose to go 17.5 total outs with the juice on him opposed to 18.5 at plus money like they did Rodon? As we getting close to ASG I might worry a few pitchers could possibly have a start cut short if they scheduled to pitch the asg but pitching today he still be on regular rest for the ASG, can’t think of find another reason why they set this here?
 
I wonder if they gonna post any props for Gausman getting to face a bunch of kc minor leaguers? They prob won’t, pussies!!
 
2daBank said:
Freaking Garrett not gonna have any problem cashing his k prop. Fuckers that got to bet overnight priced me out of that winner, pricks! Lol
Click to expand...
Just did the natural parlay with such high odds of Garrett k and Burnes outs. Ended up +143 I think. Not like I'd play either by themselves
 
KJ said:
Just did the natural parlay with such high odds of Garrett k and Burnes outs. Ended up +143 I think. Not like I'd play either by themselves
Click to expand...

Nice. I actually think there a pretty good case to just suck it up and lay it w Burnes but me neither,,just using in several 2 teamers and a couple 3. Sometimes I screw myself and get to mathy/caught up in the price/value, I knew Garrett was gonna fan at least 5 but losing 40 cents overnight talked myself into passing.
 
2daBank said:
Nice. I actually think there a pretty good case to just suck it up and lay it w Burnes but me neither,,just using in several 2 teamers and a couple 3. Sometimes I screw myself and get to mathy/caught up in the price/value, I knew Garrett was gonna fan at least 5 but losing 40 cents overnight talked myself into passing.
Click to expand...
I'm generally that way with value in some sports, steam doesn't bother me in lesser conference hoops as much
 
KJ said:
Hate phone posting, always have to edit posts because my fat fingers
Click to expand...

I’d guess 80% my post on phone: I text really fast also so don’t bother me, I have same problem hitting wrong button but most time phone fixes for me as I go.
 
2daBank said:
I’d guess 80% my post on phone: I text really fast also so don’t bother me, I have same problem hitting wrong button but most time phone fixes for me as I go.
Click to expand...
Have a text app on the laptop so I can type. Hate autocorrect when half the stuff it changes I wanted to spell it my way
 
2daBank said:
Nice. I actually think there a pretty good case to just suck it up and lay it w Burnes but me neither,,just using in several 2 teamers and a couple 3. Sometimes I screw myself and get to mathy/caught up in the price/value, I knew Garrett was gonna fan at least 5 but losing 40 cents overnight talked myself into passing.
Click to expand...
You bet in IL right? I think fd is the best book for K props generally, usually less juice and can take alt prices
 
survive&advance said:
You bet in IL right? I think fd is the best book for K props generally, usually less juice and can take alt prices
Click to expand...

They just further away and I really like sticking w cash. One these days I’ll prob start loading online at Illinios books, pretty dumb not to take adv the bonuses and get best prices, I justify not doing it cause I gotta cross river anyways and DK is right there, I’d be in their parking lot on the apps anyways. Lol. I just manage myself so much better w cash at brick and mortar, one these days I’ll trust myself again but tough to change up what been working really well! Since I stopped playing online and just at DK last fall I been doing way way better, of course that coincides with when I started playing props also so that has a lot to do with it!!
 
2daBank said:
They just further away and I really like sticking w cash. One these days I’ll prob start loading online at Illinios books, pretty dumb not to take adv the bonuses and get best prices, I justify not doing it cause I gotta cross river anyways and DK is right there, I’d be in their parking lot on the apps anyways. Lol. I just manage myself so much better w cash at brick and mortar, one these days I’ll trust myself again but tough to change up what been working really well! Since I stopped playing online and just at DK last fall I been doing way way better, of course that coincides with when I started playing props also so that has a lot to do with it!!
Click to expand...
You’re really missing out with the other books in terms of line shopping bro! I def understand the money management aspect of it. You have any limits betting props at dk in person? I’m guessing no? That’s prob the biggest advantage for you because you’d be limited on the app for sure
 
survive&advance said:
You’re really missing out with the other books in terms of line shopping bro! I def understand the money management aspect of it. You have any limits betting props at dk in person? I’m guessing no? That’s prob the biggest advantage for you because you’d be limited on the app for sure
Click to expand...

Nope, that the other reason but I should at least sign up for all them and hit them till they do limit:
 
2daBank said:
Nope, that the other reason but I should at least sign up for all them and hit them till they do limit:
Click to expand...
Honestly yea. Come football szn I would take advantage of the sign up promos, free money and the line shopping is so crucial. You won’t get limited at fd or Caesar’s and they offer good prop selections, sharper books for sure compared to dk or mgm.
 
survive&advance said:
Honestly yea. Come football szn I would take advantage of the sign up promos, free money and the line shopping is so crucial. You won’t get limited at fd or Caesar’s and they offer good prop selections, sharper books for sure compared to dk or mgm.
Click to expand...

I prob will do before fb, if only cause DK was pretty hit and miss on whether they gave me props on a ncaa game and I crushed those! Be nice to have more games to pick from along w number shopping and bonuses. Can’t do same game at the brick and mortar either, doesn’t break my heart but there are instances I wish I could! Not to mention the parlay boost and shit.
 
Eventually when I do this I’ll do what kj said and figure out how to be able to bet without being in the state but I dunno if I can figure that out! That would def make it worth it, especially with gas costing a fortune now driving to casino few times a day is like extra fucking juice now!!
 
I’m actually closer to Illinois crossing the JB bridge but the problem is there isn’t a damn exit after ya cross river for like 5-6 miles so makes going thru downtown to DK parking lot just as easy. If there was a exit right across river at JB bridge it be like 2-3 miles tops for me!! There is a little uturn spot police use that so close to me on Illinios side but pretty sure that would be frowned upon me using it!! There signs and shit, lol.
 
Wow. If Garrett’s performance today doesn’t scream how terrible pirates are vs lhp I dunno what does? 6 scoreless w 11k’s! He won’t sniff another game close to that good all year, unless he gets to face these guys in pit later on! Lol
 
I saw a few post from guys I like/respect talking bout the under at coors, I’d be careful with that. Freeland day splits are worrisome, Snell is always worrisome imo, rox smash lhp, and he hasn’t had success at coors either. That high walk rate and low percentage of pitches in the zone screams problems at Coors!
 
Been trying to wait and see if they were gonna post any Gausman props before I go back up there but still nothing, I kinda doubt they going to. Weak but can hardly blame them, not like they great at setting these pitcher props anyways, trying to do it when he gonna face a bunch of minor league call ups I assume, be super tough!
 
I guess I’m gonna try to wait longer cause gotta think it be really tough for them to line Gausman correctly, small problem is I don’t feel like I can make a great line for him either! Lol. Unless they post something crazy I will def lean over k’s and outs tho!! I still don’t think they gonna set props for him but we shall see.

Only reason I wanted to go back up there sooner than later was to avoid traffic but the bright side is old lady will drive me at 5, I been driving again last few days and it legal but it not really enjoyable! Lol. I shoulda bet everything for entire card this morning but wasn’t ready. I prob woulda just skipped rox game but I had to be downtown early anyways.
 
Pads blew a scoring chance in 2nd. Let’s see if Rox can cash in getting 1st 2 guys on base in 2nd!
 
Even tho don’t like the ump for a game over here in stl I still think cards Ff tt ov 1.5 worth a play: I do not see Anderson preventing cards from scoring 2 runs in 5 innings!

Cards Getting +140 is pretty tempting as well, I’d think a pitcher favorable ump would be very helpful to Hudson!! I hardly ever know when Hudson be good or not, so won’t try to pretend to here, just think cards should get to anderson so +140 a decent play.

Braves Ff tt ov 2.5 also. If anibal Sanchez comes back from the dead and holds atl down so be it!
 
2daBank said:
Those walks will score every time Snell! Keep walking guys!!!
Click to expand...

No shit, he just did it twice again. Is their bullpen shot or wtf?

I can count the unders I've bet at Coors on one hand, and today was the last finger.

Never again...
 
inZane said:
No shit, he just did it twice again. Is their bullpen shot or wtf?

I can count the unders I've bet at Coors on one hand, and today was the last finger.

Never again...
Click to expand...

I actually don’t mind unders there, gotta be right matchup tho, I was worried for you today, Snell don’t have good history there and he always flirting w walks which a terrible trait at coors.

They finally yanked him after walking 2 runs home this inning, hopefully the pen can settle things down for ya. it tough to get thru 4-5 innings with pen at coors tho, unless 1 guy can come in and go 3+ innings the odds at least one more guy struggles are high.
 
They did come w Gausman props, I guess a bit of risk, I forgot he coming off taking that liner off his ankle that cost us his k prop last game. I’m assuming they know he good to go his normal work load or I wouldn’t think they send him out there.,

Gausman ov 5.5 k’s., I like this better than total outs just in case the ankle does get sore on him. I don’t think it gonna take him 6 innings to punch out 6+. 2 kc players seeing 1st big league action, another only has 7 ab’s, yet another w just 55. Can’t imagine they have been exposed to many splitters like the one they will see tonight!! If they can stay disciplined and lay off it more power to them, not many legit big leaguers been able to!

Carrasco ov 4.5 k’s. I’d rather this be 5.5 without the heavy juice. Another I stould have played earlier as it been bet up 40 cents.

Cortes ov 5.5 k’s., reds fan a lot.

Burnes ov 17.5 outs. Talked bout plenty.


Cards Ff tt ov1.5
Atl Ff tt ov 2.5

Just did them in RR fashion in groups of 2s and 3s cause for some reason they decided to make everything 1 tick lower and juiced to shit today.
 
Damn, arenado fouled off bunch of pitches that ab but shit he missed a fastball and cutter right down heart of plate that ab. Working the count and fouling pitches off all good but you do that so you can get a meatball, he got 2 and didn’t do shit w them. Shoulda got the 2 runs right there!!
 
Braves Ff team total cashed easy. Fucking cards couldn’t score a damn run off anderson who I still don’t fully buy. Lol.
 
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