Sunday 02/24/13 NBA discussion thread

divol · Feb 23, 2013

[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 934"]
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - SUN 2/24[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]805[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 204.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]12:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]806[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 204.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]809[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+13 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 204 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]03:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]810[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Miami Heat[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-13 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 204 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]811[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+10.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 187 1.909[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]812[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-10.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 187 2.000[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]813[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-9.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 202 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]814[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Phoenix Suns[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+9.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 202 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]815[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 192.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]816[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 192.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 2/24[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]817[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Chicago Bulls[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 196 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]818[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 196 1.952[/TD]
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divol · Feb 23, 2013

First thoughts are Lakers to win, Over in Minny and I like both dogs, Bulls and Sixers. Lines appear to be 2 - 3 points too high, but would like to see how Sixers play tonight...

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Tony parker is out

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

12 pm local start time in Dallas? Really?

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Some writer is clearly outta the loop....

Bryant is shooting 65.1 percent (28 of 43) in his last three games against the Mavericks, and Pau Gasol is averaging 21.3 points while shooting 68.3 percent (28 of 41) in his past three visits to Dallas.

raems · Feb 24, 2013

That Knicks Sixers line has bright red sirens begging you by all means to take all those points. Knicks should coast.

raems · Feb 24, 2013

Lakers Dallas game will be a very interesting watch. Lot of basketball left to play, but could argue that this is almost a playoff elimination game (not that I think either of these teams is making the playoffs).

braves · Feb 24, 2013

wonder if cuban comments have any effect on this..... The thing about the lakers this season is just when you think they have turned the corner, they throw up a shitter. prolly will avoid

raems · Feb 24, 2013

braves said:
wonder if cuban comments have any effect on this..... The thing about the lakers this season is just when you think they have turned the corner, they throw up a shitter. prolly will avoid

There really is no "turning the corner" with them, not this year. This team is the definition of mediocrity, righting the ship at this point would still just amount to 1 playoff win.

Gaius.T · Feb 24, 2013

Dallas in early game reminder http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?86624-Nowitzki-not-a-morning-guy

Don't know if the stats really back it up.

laopadak · Feb 24, 2013

So far am on Cleveland +12 and Cleveland +7.5 1st half (-115)

4units each and can't see how at worse I split. Miami on a roll but coming home from a 4gm roadie, huge fav. Either Cleveland stays close for 1st have and/or the entire game.

Adding NY -10 @-105 for 4units

Will be adding. GL on yer plays!

:shake:

GoIrish! · Feb 24, 2013

anyone else like Brooklyn ML?

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Heck no. The grizz should annihilate us if they come to play.

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Taking the lakers +3

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

joe johnson out again

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Nets coach P.J. Carlesimo said that he will consider resting players like Deron Williams

Uh oh. Carlesimo spent six years as an assistant coach under Gregg Popovich, and it seems he's stealing a page from Pop's playbook. After explicitly praising Pop's willingness to bench his stars, Carlesimo said, "We could be looking at having to [rest players] because it's the best thing for those guys." With Brooklyn comfortably situated at fourth place in the East, D-Will is high on the list of candidates for random DNPs down the stretch.

divol · Feb 24, 2013

Stafford recent games with GSW:
[h=3]Recent Games with Golden State[/h][TABLE="class: data, width: 660"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2b"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 10%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]vs.[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 17%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]Score[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 10%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]Line[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 12%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 8%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 11%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]GS FG[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 11%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]Opp FG[/TD]
[TD="class: datahl2b, width: 9%, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]Reb[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]01/29/13[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]@CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 108-95[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W -1.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]O 201.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]11.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]45/84[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]36/84[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]39-36[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]12/12/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]@MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 97-95[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 8.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]U 206.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]38/81[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]38/80[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]40-38[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]11/14/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]ATL[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 92-88[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W -1[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]U 192.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]33/71[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]34/78[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]44-29[/TD]
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[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]04/07/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]DEN[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 112-97[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 3[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]U 210.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]18.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]46/88[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]37/80[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]41-35[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]03/11/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]@LAC[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 97-93[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 7.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]U 198.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]11.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]36/70[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]34/79[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]37-42[/TD]
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[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]02/20/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]LAC[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 104-97[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]O 198.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]9.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]38/83[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]33/77[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]38-46[/TD]
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[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]01/10/12[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 111-106 (OT)[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 9[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]O 197.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]14.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]38/95[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]39/85[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]52-48[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]01/22/11[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]@LAC[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]L 109-113[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 8[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]O 215.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]39/85[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]37/85[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]42-48[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]01/01/11[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]@MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]L 107-114[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 11.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]O 205.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]41/87[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]35/71[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]36-43[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: datahl2, bgcolor: #ECECE4"]11/05/10[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 85-78[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]W 1.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]U 223.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]8.5[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]35/93[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]30/76[/TD]
[TD="class: datacell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]52-46[/TD]
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nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1214"]
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[TD="class: team"] 2/24

1:00 PM

801 Los Angeles Lakers
802 Dallas Mavericks

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[TD="class: pct"] 70%
30%
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[TD="class: pct"] 75%
25%
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[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
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nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Lakers coach Mike D’Antoni doesn’t think the early start time for the game will be a factor. “If somebody is letting down, it’s because it’s mental, it’s not physical or anything,” he said. “You sleep well, you get up and you go to work, kind of like everybody else does. Usually you’re more productive in the morning, right?”

not when you work at night, dumbass.

hugh613 · Feb 24, 2013

What the hell kind of treadmill is Mark Cuban on that he's a good five feet above the reporters?

:thinking:

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

Bought off the lakers with Dallas 2h -2.5

Retburj13 · Feb 24, 2013

nbafan88 said:
Bought off the lakers with Dallas 2h -2.5

looks like a bad move...kobe took game over

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

yup, those techs helped too

its alright

tuck321 · Feb 24, 2013

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Today, 02:27 PM
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Happy Hippo

1.20.09

Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,651

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[TD="class: alt1"] Sunday

ATS: 135-94-7 (+50.1)
OU: 72-60-2 (+4.7)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)

Cavaliers

Since the 2006 season, home favorites with a winning record are 19-43 ATS when they average better than 44% from the field on the season, and their opponent shoots under than number, if their opponent is coming off a road win. If you add in that the Heat are coming off a road game themselves, teams are just 5-15 ATS. Since the 2009 season, teams playing as a home favorite of 10 or more are 17-30 ATS when coming off a road trip of 3 or more games, when they won their last game. Since the 2005 season, teams with a losing record that lost to a team with a winning record already in the same season are 61-45-1 ATS in the rematch as a road dog.

The Heat are coming off a four game road trip, with the all-star break after the first game, but many of their players have not been home for awhile. Since the 2005 season, teams coming off a road win where they shot better than 55% from the field are 15-24 ATS when playing at home on no rest. Home favorites of 10 or more (average line -12.3) coming off a road game playing their fourth game in five days are 23-36 ATS since the 1995 season. Teams this season playing their fourth in five are 19-34 ATS. The Heat have traveled over 3300 miles in the last five days, and two of their last three teams have been playoff contenders. This is taxing physically and emotionally. The Heat have amazing starters, but they have the third worst bench in the league in terms of scoring, and that is something they will need against this Cavaliers team that has been clicking offensively recently - the Cavs have led the league in offensive efficiency in their last three games.

I'll take the points in this one.

Knicks

Teams that give up an average field goal percentage between 43.5 and 45.5 and are playing against a team that gives up an average between 45.5 and 47.5 fgp on the season are 37-61 ATS since the 2004 season when playing as a road dog if their opponent has a win percentage greater than 40, when they are playing on no rest and their opponent is rested. Since the 2005 season, teams seeking same season revenge for a double digit conference road loss in which they were a favorite are 60-16 SU (+10.4) and 47-27-2 ATS as a home favorite. If you take out the fact that the Knicks were a favorite in the last match up, and add that they are now playing as a home favorite of 8 or more (average line -10.2), teams are 74-9 SU (+13.2) and 51-30-2 ATS in the otherwise same situation. Since the 1996 season, teams with a win percentage over 60% are 15-2 SU (+16.5) and 12-5 ATS when playing as a home favorite of 8 or more (average line -10.4) when they are on a losing streak of 4 or more games. Teams playing as a home favorite coming off of two games where they failed to cover the spread are 55-11 SU (10.3) and 47-19 ATS since last season when their opponent is coming off a double digit home loss since the 2009 season. If their opponent is playing on no rest, teams are 19-3 SU (+13.6) and 18-4 ATS.

Sixers are 2-10 SU and ATS this season when playing on no rest. The Knicks are fairly dysfunctional right now, and I’m not particularly pleased to lay a double digit number on them tonight, but going with my gut on this one, that the Sixers are tapped out right now, and the Knicks will come out with fire.

Timberwolves

Since the 2004 season, teams that average between 98 and 102 points per game are 14-36 SU and 16-33-1 ATS when playing against a team that gives up between 92 and 98 points per game, when the line is between -3.5 and 3.5 and their last three games have gone over a total of 205 points. As a favorite, these teams are 8-18 SU and ATS. The Warriors have won two games against the Wolves this year, but they were both in horrible circumstances for the Wolves, so I would say more that the Wolves lost those games. This will also be the first matchup were the Wolves have Rubio. Tonight they have a chance to play the upset role, and I think they will. Teams coming off a home overtime win are 21-30 ATS when playing as a road favorite in their next game since the 2002 season. Teams coming off a game where they scored 15 or more points than expected are 25-14 ATS when playing at home against a team coming off an overtime game since the 2007 season.

The Warriors are starting a five day road trip today. Coming off a huge emotional overtime win, with the Pacers, Knicks, and Celtics on deck, this may be a game in which they lack a bit of their concentration.

Knicks -10.5 x2
Timberwolves +2
Cavaliers +13
Cavaliers-Heat UNDER 205.5
Warriors-Wolves OVER 203.5

Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Today, 02:36 PM
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HighFlyingKilla

Registered User

Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 790

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[TD="class: alt1"] NOO!!!!!

I have a big play on the Warriors.

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Today, 02:39 PM
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Happy Hippo

1.20.09

Join Date: Mar 2006
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[TD="class: alt1"] Quote:

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[TD="class: alt2"] Originally Posted by HighFlyingKilla

NOO!!!!!

I have a big play on the Warriors.
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I missed my last Warriors bet, but they are my second strongest team to cap, and I just don't see it happening today. However, the stats are not super strong, and I could really see it going either way. The line seemed super short to me when I looked at it, and it was the first game that really stuck out to me on the card today.

If you can guarantee the Knicks and Cavs cover, you can have this one

Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Today, 02:56 PM
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grindstone

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[TD="class: alt1"] GL HH I got Minny winning outright here
__________________
Positive Thinking is Better than Negative Thinking

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tuck321 · Feb 24, 2013

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Today, 02:27 PM
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Happy Hippo

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[TD="class: alt1"] Sunday

ATS: 135-94-7 (+50.1)
OU: 72-60-2 (+4.7)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)

Cavaliers

Since the 2006 season, home favorites with a winning record are 19-43 ATS when they average better than 44% from the field on the season, and their opponent shoots under than number, if their opponent is coming off a road win. If you add in that the Heat are coming off a road game themselves, teams are just 5-15 ATS. Since the 2009 season, teams playing as a home favorite of 10 or more are 17-30 ATS when coming off a road trip of 3 or more games, when they won their last game. Since the 2005 season, teams with a losing record that lost to a team with a winning record already in the same season are 61-45-1 ATS in the rematch as a road dog.

The Heat are coming off a four game road trip, with the all-star break after the first game, but many of their players have not been home for awhile. Since the 2005 season, teams coming off a road win where they shot better than 55% from the field are 15-24 ATS when playing at home on no rest. Home favorites of 10 or more (average line -12.3) coming off a road game playing their fourth game in five days are 23-36 ATS since the 1995 season. Teams this season playing their fourth in five are 19-34 ATS. The Heat have traveled over 3300 miles in the last five days, and two of their last three teams have been playoff contenders. This is taxing physically and emotionally. The Heat have amazing starters, but they have the third worst bench in the league in terms of scoring, and that is something they will need against this Cavaliers team that has been clicking offensively recently - the Cavs have led the league in offensive efficiency in their last three games.

I'll take the points in this one.

Knicks

Teams that give up an average field goal percentage between 43.5 and 45.5 and are playing against a team that gives up an average between 45.5 and 47.5 fgp on the season are 37-61 ATS since the 2004 season when playing as a road dog if their opponent has a win percentage greater than 40, when they are playing on no rest and their opponent is rested. Since the 2005 season, teams seeking same season revenge for a double digit conference road loss in which they were a favorite are 60-16 SU (+10.4) and 47-27-2 ATS as a home favorite. If you take out the fact that the Knicks were a favorite in the last match up, and add that they are now playing as a home favorite of 8 or more (average line -10.2), teams are 74-9 SU (+13.2) and 51-30-2 ATS in the otherwise same situation. Since the 1996 season, teams with a win percentage over 60% are 15-2 SU (+16.5) and 12-5 ATS when playing as a home favorite of 8 or more (average line -10.4) when they are on a losing streak of 4 or more games. Teams playing as a home favorite coming off of two games where they failed to cover the spread are 55-11 SU (10.3) and 47-19 ATS since last season when their opponent is coming off a double digit home loss since the 2009 season. If their opponent is playing on no rest, teams are 19-3 SU (+13.6) and 18-4 ATS.

Sixers are 2-10 SU and ATS this season when playing on no rest. The Knicks are fairly dysfunctional right now, and I’m not particularly pleased to lay a double digit number on them tonight, but going with my gut on this one, that the Sixers are tapped out right now, and the Knicks will come out with fire.

Timberwolves

Since the 2004 season, teams that average between 98 and 102 points per game are 14-36 SU and 16-33-1 ATS when playing against a team that gives up between 92 and 98 points per game, when the line is between -3.5 and 3.5 and their last three games have gone over a total of 205 points. As a favorite, these teams are 8-18 SU and ATS. The Warriors have won two games against the Wolves this year, but they were both in horrible circumstances for the Wolves, so I would say more that the Wolves lost those games. This will also be the first matchup were the Wolves have Rubio. Tonight they have a chance to play the upset role, and I think they will. Teams coming off a home overtime win are 21-30 ATS when playing as a road favorite in their next game since the 2002 season. Teams coming off a game where they scored 15 or more points than expected are 25-14 ATS when playing at home against a team coming off an overtime game since the 2007 season.

The Warriors are starting a five day road trip today. Coming off a huge emotional overtime win, with the Pacers, Knicks, and Celtics on deck, this may be a game in which they lack a bit of their concentration.

Knicks -10.5 x2
Timberwolves +2
Cavaliers +13
Cavaliers-Heat UNDER 205.5
Warriors-Wolves OVER 203.5

Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Today, 02:36 PM
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HighFlyingKilla

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[TD="class: alt1"] NOO!!!!!

I have a big play on the Warriors.

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Today, 02:39 PM
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Happy Hippo

1.20.09

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[TD="class: alt1"] Quote:

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[TD="class: alt2"] Originally Posted by HighFlyingKilla

NOO!!!!!

I have a big play on the Warriors.
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I missed my last Warriors bet, but they are my second strongest team to cap, and I just don't see it happening today. However, the stats are not super strong, and I could really see it going either way. The line seemed super short to me when I looked at it, and it was the first game that really stuck out to me on the card today.

If you can guarantee the Knicks and Cavs cover, you can have this one

Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Today, 02:56 PM
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grindstone

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[TD="class: alt1"] GL HH I got Minny winning outright here
__________________
Positive Thinking is Better than Negative Thinking

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emkee · Feb 24, 2013

Oh boy...

Retburj13 · Feb 24, 2013

emkee said:
Oh boy...

think u mean girl

hugh613 · Feb 24, 2013

:thinking:

tuck321 · Feb 24, 2013

Sorry about the double post.
First chance to look at the games in some time. So far
Cleveland plus 7.5 minus 15 cents
So far NY minus 3 first quarter

nbafan88 · Feb 24, 2013

does anyone know the ATS record of western conference teams vs eastern conference teams this season?

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