Someone tell me why I shouldn't play...




SHSUHorn

SHSUHorn

Thief
USC -7 (-120) at pinny right now vs Arkie. Hell I'll be the first to admit I was all over Arkie +10 and played it at betmill before they got shut down. Now with Mcfadden out (yes I know they have felix jones) and Dick's back acting up. Shit they haven't even named a starter yet and this game is 2 weeks away. It could be Robert johnson who looked awful last year or the true frosh Mustain. Pete Carroll is gonna be licking his chops and he'll also be going up against an OC who was coaching HS last year.

Thoughts?
 
I'm liking USC right here... Think Arky is way overrated even without the injuries. USC has the horses, they just need to put it together without the game experience. Having Jarrett or whatever the WR name is I'm having a brain freeze on needs to get figured in a bit too.
 
BTW: You could have a fuckin field day with these QB names for Arkie...

"Up against the strong Cocks, Nutt can't decide to name Johnson or Dick."
 
Fondy, they have a ton of WRs. Jarett, Smith, and Turner are all lights out. I'm waiting to get word on Chauncey Washington's hamstring as he hasn't been practicing. RB is my major concern with this offense.
 
I am damn close to playing USC here too horn...and it takes a lot for me to bet a fav...
 
Arky is two years away from being a very good team. Even though they bring almost everyone back from last year, they are still very young. With the injuries to the RB corp, and the starting of a new, inexperienced QB, whoever it may be, Arkansas has basically lost their best offensive weapons for this game.

Defensively, they were nothing special last season, but they will be one year more experienced. However, we really have to beg the question, "Are they strong enought to hold USC to only a TD win? Arkies "averaged combined defensive ranking," in all defensive categories last season nationally, was 46 (actually 45.9). USC was #1 in the nation in TOTAL OFFENSE. Although we understand that USC lost some serious offensive weapons, they still have some very good talent to step in here.

I just can't believe this line is this low. All the power ranking systems that are currently out have USC at -17! I realize that this is partially due to their success last season, but as long as this line remains in single digits, I like USC in this spot! Arkansas is getting a lot of hype for a team that has to implement an entirely new offensive scheme this year. I'm even considering making this an early play here, Horn. And, I don't normally make early plays.

beer.gif
 
I might also add that I was on Arky earlier this Summer, but I thought the line would come out with Arky being around -14. I can't support a play on them with the line in single digits.
 
SHSUHorn

There are 2 teams in the SEC, in my humble opinion, that are getting way to much respect this year.....Arky is one of them....Heres LY's final talley..
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]9/[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]3[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]SW Missouri St[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] W 49-17[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]9/10[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Vanderbilt[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] L 28-24[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]9/[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]17[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]at USC L 70-17[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]9/24[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]at Alabama L 24-13[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]10/8[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]UL Monroe[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] W 44-14[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]10/[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]15[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Auburn L 34-17[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]10/[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]22[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]at Georgia L 23-20[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]1[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]1/5[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]South Carolina[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] L 14-10[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]11/12[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]at Ole Miss[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] W 28-17[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]11/1[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]9[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Miss State[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica] W 44-10[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]11/2[/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]6[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica]at LSU L 19-17[/FONT]
While you can say they did play LSU, Georgia and Bama a good game, but that's what happens when SEC teams get together....I'm not sure how they can cut into that 53 point difference, this year.....Nutt is a great coach...His D might be better..but 7 does look like a gift.....

BOL, friend

FADE:cheers:
 
Well i already have this game locked in. I dont want to give away my writeup but lets just say everyone is writing USC off. Except for those who KNOW college football. Some fools will say oh they lost their whole backfield blah..
With mcfadden out Arkansas is even more limited on offense. They needed to pound the ball to keep the high powered wrs off the field for USC. USC's defense was young last year and the majority are back. I think Caroll sends a message opening week. Arkansas 20 USC 42
 
this line does seem very low, wit arkansas rb out. doesnt that make sense to people? what would tha line be if mcfadden was in there? usc -4 or -5? would it still be tha same -8 if there was a health mcfadden playin? this is a espn prime time saturday night game. dogs have ALWAYS shown up for these games in tha past. again i will ask why is this line so low? sure usc lost 3 huge players, but im sayin they are still ranked #3 in tha USA today poll, while arky didnt crack tha top 25 ranked 29th. someone please explain why this line is so low. i can see tha masses will be all over USC in this game, it looks almost to easy to take usc -7 or so here. i know what side i will be on, i jus cant fuckin wait till week 1 gets here
 
abcs--thelegend said:
Well i already have this game locked in. I dont want to give away my writeup but lets just say everyone is writing USC off.
Click to expand...

whos writing them off? they are right now preseason week 1 ranked #3 in tha nation. how is that "writing USC off"?
 
Maybe not writing them off.. but people are saying Cal is narrowing the gap, they only received 1 first place vote. I just dont think they are getting the respect that this team deserves. Does anyone remember Leinarts first game..
 
On paper, USC covers. The wildcard IMHO is motivation and emotion.

Arky--REVENGE, big-time deliverance REVENGE after the shellacking they took last year. Nobody likes to look like that much of a bitch on national TV and they will not let it happen again at home.

USC--Establish that they are still #1 and send a message to all opponents that they are still the big dogs.

Overrall, I think Arky's motivation is stronger. I don't think that they win outright, but they will keep it to a TD or 10 points at home.

I'm on the fence on this one. With McFadden out, they've lost their top RB. But they still have depth at the position. They also have to start a new QB, but then again so does USC. USC also needs to insert a new RB and Washington may not even play with knee (?) issues.

I'd have to say that right now I like USC -7 better than Arky +10, but...

Think I will watch this one...
 
Not Jones but the other RB I think Smith has a pulled hammy that doesn't look good. Jones is smaller so I'm not sure he can bust out the 20 carries in this game.

Razor where you at on this one?!?
 
Where is this game being played? Little Rock or Fayetville? Huge difference.. I dont care about emotion.. it comes down to skill and matchups. Arkansas has a talented wr who will create all kinds of problems. But if SC can get them into third and long, look for a lot of turnovers. I just think that SC doesnt get to play many games on National TV and this will be a huge statement to the country if they repeat last years game.

To compare the talents of Booty and Sanchez to any QB that Arky decides to start is just wrong. Booty has been at SC for a while and knows the offense as well as the players, sure he doesnt have much time on the field.. but his talent is undeniable.
 
U can say u don't care about emotion, but dude, it plays a major role in college football...Situationally handicapping is extremely important in success week to week...Skill/matchups are equally important, but there has to be a balance..
 
Ok so revenge is important in this game. But SC doesnt want to lose this game because if they do their season is a wash..
I dont see emotion playing that big of role sorry.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
U can say u don't care about emotion, but dude, it plays a major role in college football...Situationally handicapping is extremely important in success week to week...Skill/matchups are equally important, but there has to be a balance..
Click to expand...

Agree completely.

Arky has had this game circled since after their ass got handed to them at the Colliseum.

USC, I think, is treating this as the first game of a season where they'll have more to prove than since 2003 when Carson Palmer left. I think they are feeling a little disrespected with all the questions about the backfield and new QB, but how disrespected can you be when you are preseason #3?

Motivational edge is Arky's. Question is do they have enough talent in place right now to play at 120% and stay close or beat USC straight up?

Maybe to the first, no to the last question.
 
abcs--thelegend said:
Ok so revenge is important in this game. But SC doesnt want to lose this game because if they do their season is a wash..
I dont see emotion playing that big of role sorry.
Click to expand...

Nobody wants to lose. But for Arky this goes beyond W/L.
 
Also remember noone has ever had the run of recruiting classes USC has. 4 times they have had top 3 classes. The last 2 years have been lights out #1 classes.

Big time talent replacing the guys leaving. Both Sanchez and Booty were the #1 QBs coming out of HS. Stefon Johnson is the best true frosh RB not named Chris Wells.
 
abcs--thelegend said:
I just think that SC doesnt get to play many games on National TV and this will be a huge statement to the country if they repeat last years game.
Click to expand...

what?

in tha 13 games they played las year, 7 of them tha whole world could see. there might have been 1 or 2 more, but more than half they games where everyone in tha usa can see them is a good number. not many other colleges out there had more, an if they did it was maybe 1 or 2 more. flat out bottom line this limelight, spotlight or whatever u would like to call it isnt on USC, of course they want to go in an win, tha pressure an motivation is on arkansas. i wouldnt be shocked if they win this game outright.
 
trupicker said:
what?

in tha 13 games they played las year, 7 of them tha whole world could see. there might have been 1 or 2 more, but more than half they games where everyone in tha usa can see them is a good number. not many other colleges out there had more, an if they did it was maybe 1 or 2 more. flat out bottom line this limelight, spotlight or whatever u would like to call it isnt on USC, of course they want to go in an win, tha pressure an motivation is on arkansas. i wouldnt be shocked if they win this game outright.
Click to expand...

You wouldnt be shocked..? So you think a moneyline at +300 is good value?
What games were on national tv? Notre Dame, UCLA, and maybe 3 late night games.. but not many were on when it was before 10 out on the east coast, so no not many of us got to watch them.
Arkansas was a fucking joke last year if revenge is on their mind then they will have it for the majority of their games. Their wins were over Ole Miss, Miss ST, UL Monroe, SW Missou ST. THATS IT!! I will say they kept the games close in the other ones, but that is because no SEC team last year had a decent offense. I repeat NO SEC team last year had a decent offense.

I dont see this team being much better this year especially with mcfadden out. I am entitled to my opinion.. and thats the way I feel. Theres a big difference between playing teams like Vandy, Bama, South carolina and then playing the athletes USC has.
 
2 of tha USC games were at 10 pm las year in tha 7 or more they had on national tv. whats ur point, 2 games not like half or more than half was after 10. +300 on a live home dog week 1 will be a great value, im sure i will make tha safer play an take tha points but anythang can happen. why cant arkansas whin this game outright? cause abcs says so? arkansas will be pumped up an ready to go for this rematch. im not sayin theres a 100% chance there will cover, but i love my chances in this one wit arkansas.

if u feel that strong wit USC bet ur whole account, buy it down to 7 an bet it all. put every penny u got on USC, why not u seem like this is will be a walk in tha park for usc.

i havent finished my week 1 card fully yet, but right now i dont see why arkansas wont be on it
 
TRU ( I know you have beef with me..) but where did i say that Arkansas cant cover this game. Where did i say they have no chance. What makes you think that this game wont be the same as last years? Their best player is out, and they havent had a stellar recruiting class the past few years. Their offense is a joke and their defense is suspect at best. If they fall behind early they are toast. I would love to hear your reasoning on why you like this play. Who cares that they got beat down by 60+ last year, that game was in the past, and will have no influence on this one.
Thats great that you that you want to bet the game, good luck!!
 
"Arkansas 20 USC 42"
"Arkansas was a fucking joke last year if revenge is on their mind then they will have it for the majority of their games."

where did i ever say in ur words that u said arkansas had no chance? ur sayin ur on them, an ur sayin u think it will be a win by 22 points, arky is a joke this an that. if u feel that strong about usc walkin in an beatin that bad then lay every dime u got on them. i havent seen u yet talk anything about how arkansas can cover this game, all i see is u say emotions, an revenge wont mean nothin in this game.

 
Bet every dime on the first game of the year, brilliant. And read the bolded quote is says they were a joke LAST Year.. I said i was on USC just like i am on pitt, and a few others. Of course im confident on all my plays. I am just wondering what makes you think arkansas is better this year especially without their all american back, and if they have to start a true freshman in this game.
 
even wit mcfadden not playin i think felix jones will step in an have a great game vs USC. sure mcfadden is tha main back there, but jones will step in week 1 an make shit happen.

this line opened at pinny wit mcfadden already known to be out an it opened at -8, i would still like to hear what people would think this line shoulda or woulda opened at wit a health mcfadden. is he worth 2 or 3 points? him playin would this line have opened at USC -5 or -6? how off was tha other lines set by these other books an im sure vegas had to have some early lines also. pinnacle knew betmill or whatever tha books name was had USC -10, why after mcfadden went out pinnacle opened this line at -8? if other books had it at 10 wit mcfadden in, why would pinny drop it 2 points when im sure they coulda opened it at 9.5 or even 10? juice moves all tha time at pinny but right now arkansas is +8 -109. i know we got some great NCAA cappers here, an some great linewatchers i wanna hear everyones thoughts on this.
 
Good discussion going here on this game. I don't know if I can add much more than what I've already posted, but . . . . .

As I see it, Arkansas has the edge in situational handicapping, but USC has the edge in talent and stats. I see both offenses as washes -- with Arkansas' most talented RB injured, a new QB not even named starting, and a completely new offensive scheme coached by a former high school coach, I just see Arky's offense struggling here. On the other hand, USC's offense has been almost completely gutted bringing back only 4 starters from last season. What good are great WRs if the QB can't get them the ball? I'm not saying Booty will not be able to do it, he may be very capable, but we haven't seen it. The offensive line will be inexperienced along with the backfield. Still, . . . . . . . I hang some hope on Carroll here that I cannot with Nutt.

I think the difference will likely be defensively. Carroll has not had a season yet where he brought back more than 7 starters on his defense. This season he will bring back 6. The defensive front will be almost impenatrable -- very necessary in stopping the run. Arky's defense last year was literally raked by USC's offense. I'm expecting better results in this game, but I do not believe they will stop USC the entire game -- and I think they will pull up short of a cover.

I see USC winning by 10 points here.
 
JOB--USC -10? Right now it's at USC -7 (-120). I don't think it get's to a legitimate USC -7, but bounce back to USC -10? Think it goes between 8 and 9, myself.
 
rjurewitz said:
JOB--USC -10? Right now it's at USC -7 (-120). I don't think it get's to a legitimate USC -7, but bounce back to USC -10? Think it goes between 8 and 9, myself.
Click to expand...

I don't know man...I've seen alot stranger things...I would be shocked if it didn't get to at least 9..
 
JumpOnBoard said:
I still think this has a good chance to get to 10 personally...
Click to expand...

And if it does, it will be a no play for me. I had this game capped this way in early Summer:

Arky +13-15 a play on Arky.
Arky +9-12 a no play.
Arky under +9 USC has to be considered the play.
 
USC just got played by me @ -7 (-122) at pinny for $400. No way Johnson would've been the starter if Nutt's Dick wasn't broken or I mean his back wasn't hurt. Johnson was named the starter today.

It was a big day in Fayetteville (Ark.) as junior quarterback Robert Johnson was named the starting quarterback out of fall camp for the second year in-a-row. And coaches believe this is a new and improved Johnson with more experience and a fresh start under two new offensive coaches.

Johnson earned the starting job last year but seemed to regress as the year went on until he was eventually benched in favor of true freshman Casey Dick for the final four games. Johnson struggled with clock management and vertical passing, but this fall he has been on target and appears more confident in his abilities. In last Saturday's spring game, he hit starting flanker Marcus Monk four times for 20-plus yard completions.

"We named Robert Johnson the starting quarterback," Arkansas coach Houston Nutt said following Wednesday night's workout. "I've talked to each of the quarterbacks, and we feel good at this time," he said. "Robert has improved, and boy we want everybody to get behind him. Our team is excited."

The team needed this news, Nutt says. With the information received from Dr. Robert Tillman out of Little Rock on Dick's back, it seemed like a logical time to name Johnson the starter. Dick will not be ready to play by the USC game on Sept. 2, so the focus is completely on getting him well and not trying to test or rush him to the field. Dick did throw indoors today under the watchful eyes of trainers.

"Right now, we've been working with two quarterbacks, and I feel for Casey Dick," he said. "He's been through a lot. He's very frustrated. This is not what we planned. We didn't plan for McFadden's deal, and we sure didn't plan for Casey Dick's situation. We expected him to be full-speed, but hopefully he can get back. We don't know when. All I know is that Casey Dick cannot be ready by the first game. I know that, and so you have to go forward."

True freshman Mitch Mustain, a heralded signee from the 2006 class, was competing with Johnson for the starting spot. Mustain has made tremendous progress over the last two weeks, but he is still getting used to the speed of the game, and the way Johnson has responded in Dick's absence combined with his level of experience, it was a fairly easy call for the staff. But Mustain has a world of potential, and one can bank on his name popping up again soon.

"I did everything I could and learned as fast as I could, and it didn't work out for me, but I've still got a long way to go. I've got four or five years left. I'm not even close to where I should be. I'm going to keep working for it. I'm going to keep fighting for it, and I know he is, too," Mustain said. "It's something to be expected. He had a great fall, and I've still got a lot to learn. I support him, and I think the entire team does."

Johnson feels that the hiring of new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and quarterbacks coach Alex Wood has given him a fresh start. He seems like a more confident quarterback, but will he slip back like he did last season? Only time will tell, and it is important to continue to prepare Mustain for action. Johnson will receive 60-70 percent of the snaps from Wednesday and into the season.

"I think it gave me a fresh start. Every one of us started with a fresh start," Johnson said. "I never thought of it like [I'd never start again]. I knew I'd have to come out and prove myself again."

As for the rest of the team, it was not the best day of practice in fairly warm conditions, but the players still came to work. The second week of fall camp is a grind on the players mentally and physically. Everyone has bumps and bruise or worse, and they are all still digesting plays and concepts.

"Little tired, getting a little sluggish towards the end of the week, but we got some things done," Nutt said. "We're improving. That's what camp's about. You get a little sore, you've got to keep going. You've got to keep playing hard, keep lining up the right way and keep giving us full-speed effort."

In defensive news, true freshman Jerell Norton has stepped up in his two days of fall camp action after finally being cleared by the NCAA Clearinghouse. After missing so much time, Norton was expected to redshirt this season, but two days in shorts and helmet has provided defensive coordinator Reggie Herring with enough information to say he will play a signficant role this season.

"I can tell you right now, the little bit we've seen of Jerell Norton tells us he has special cover skills," Herring said. "He's a mature kid for his age. We're going to throw him in the fire. Don't be surprised if you see him work his way into the starting nickle position by September 2nd. He's got as good a cover skills as any corner we've got on the field. He's a very talented freshman. The mental toughness thing remains to be seen, but at this point in time we're getting him ready for Southern Cal."

Norton will be able to practice in shoulder pads for the first time on Thursday, and he will do so again on Friday. He will be allowed to suit up in full gear for Saturday's scrimmage.

Coaches expect starting senior right defensive end Anthony Brown (sprained knee) to be ready to play in the USC game. Backup senior cornerback Darius Vinnett should be ready to go by the Vanderbilt game, which is the third of the season and the first SEC match-up of the year. Junior Nate Garner is expected to see significant time because he is working at tackle and guard.
 
abcs--thelegend said:
You wouldnt be shocked..? So you think a moneyline at +300 is good value?
What games were on national tv? Notre Dame, UCLA, and maybe 3 late night games.. but not many were on when it was before 10 out on the east coast, so no not many of us got to watch them.
Arkansas was a fucking joke last year if revenge is on their mind then they will have it for the majority of their games. Their wins were over Ole Miss, Miss ST, UL Monroe, SW Missou ST. THATS IT!! I will say they kept the games close in the other ones, but that is because no SEC team last year had a decent offense. I repeat NO SEC team last year had a decent offense.

I dont see this team being much better this year especially with mcfadden out. I am entitled to my opinion.. and thats the way I feel. Theres a big difference between playing teams like Vandy, Bama, South carolina and then playing the athletes USC has.
Click to expand...

Same situation arises every stinking year. How many points were scored in the BCS (national championship game) last year? Was it because both offenses were unstoppable? It depends on who you ask. You can attack the defensive tendencies of the SEC all you want its no question that offenses were down a bit last year. However, it would be WONDERFUL to play in a conference where an offense can carry you to the league crown.
THAT HAS NOT AND WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SEC. Watch all the PAC-10 games you want but when it comes down to it you SHOULD have to play solid defense and understand the full nature of football to become a championship team. Sometimes teams are given a title on a silver platter.
Some teams play 2 or 3 games that matter all year. And of course some teams are in the SEC. THERE IS NO GUARANTEED WIN IN THE SEC....NONE! Why? This little thing called defense. I hear that word of it is traveling and within 5 years they may start teaching it on the western side of this great country. Until then, every year a Pac-10 lover is going to present a biased one sided assessment of the greatest conference in college football.
DEATH TO PAPER CHAMPIONS....DEATH TO PATSY SCHEDULES!!!!
:spank:

The athletes USC has...... Do you honestly think your the only team in the country with athletes? Do some research and present facts.
On Average there are WAAAAAAY better athletes in the SEC as a whole.
Just go back I dont know say the past 30 years. Look at the NFL drafts.
Where do the most players come from? AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

F A Q M E S I D E W A Y S R U N N I N G!
 
No one's had athletes like USC over the past couple years... never. Palmer is a freak with perhaps the strongest arm in the league. Williams and Jarrett might be the biggest marvels at WR in college as long as I can remember. Bush? Only the most entertaining highlight reel in sports this last year. I love the Big 10 but USC and the "athletes" argument is legitimate vs. a team like Ark here.
 
USC and Texas both had two of the best offenses in decades avg 50 points a game. I guess were all forgetting how USC put up 70 points on an SEC team last year if we are gonna rag on them.
 
purple and gold, noone is disputing the conferences. Too bad this game isn't an all star game featuring the SEC vs Pac 10. No SINGLE team in the SEC has matched what USC has done over the last three years. This includes recruiting, NFL, or wins.

Arkansas has produced Matt Jones and who?
 
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