Dapper Dan Picks - 2023/24 - Season Long Thread

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 61-65 (-13.96 units)

In a rush this morning but had to put the writeups together (atleast most) This is a beautiful card and sad the season is coming to an end (depsite the rough year we’ve been crushing the NFL tailing some sharps)

Week 12 Adds:
ECU/Navy under 30.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
SMU -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Duke -155 (ML) Risking 1.55 units to win 1 units
UCLA +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NC State/Vtech Under 41.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1units
UNC +8.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UCF +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
UF/Missouri over 55.5 (-117) Risking 1.76 units to win 1.5 units
Oregon State ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

ECU/Navy under 30.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Easy writeup as this one lights up RED on the spreadsheets in every category for the under. In PFF, across every positional category, both defenses have strong edges! And by and average differential of 41 ranks for ECU’s defense and by an average differential of 57 ranks for Navy. In FEI, the differential in favor of the defenses on average is 61 ranks for Navy and 41.5 ranks for ECU - with the only category where Navy’s offense outranks the defense is in turnover rate. Both offenses couldnt hit a big play if they wanted to, with ECU ranking 132nd in plays over 10+ yards, and 98th in plays over 30+ yards. Navy is the same way, ranking 110th in plays over 10+ yards and 90th in plays over 30+ yards. Both teams are in the bottom half of plays per game, especially navy who will try to run the ball and control the clock against ECU who loves to throw. ECU may struggle in the pass game as the one strength of this Navy team is applying pressure, ranking 11th in sack%, an area of struggle for this ECU offense that ranks 133rd in pass blocking and 85th in sack%. Sure the number is low but the score should be even lower

SMU -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
No write-up for this one, in a pinch for time this morning

Duke -155 (ML) Risking 1.55 units to win 1 units
I love Duke in this one and they should run for 200+ yards against a UVA defense that ranks dead last - 133th in rush defense according to PFF. New starting QB Loftis started showing some confidence and made some great throws and helped put up 45 points last week against UNC despite the loss. This UVA offense will not put up anywhere near that and will be lucky to put up 20 points against this stout Duke defense. On both sides of the ball, Duke dominates on paper, outranking in every offensive category (vs the UVA defense) by an average of 39 ranks. On defense, every category as well with an average of 34 ranks. UVA has struggled in pass blocking ranking 126th and Duke ranks 56th in the pass rush. In FEI, the average differential is 57 ranks in favor of Duke leading in all categories over the UVA defense. I would love to take the UVA QB to get an INT but we could very well see two of them so will be content with Duke ML.

UCLA +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I will gladly take 6 points with the MUCH better defense on paper. Can’t read too much into last week’s offensive performance for UCLA as Colin Schlee was under center and couldnt throw an accurate pass if he wanted to completing 45% on the season for 4.5 yards per pass with more INTs then TDs. Ethan Garbers should be back or maybe even Dante Moore which should bring this offense back to life, especially against a defense that is one of the worst in the nation - USC ranks 93rd overall in PFF, 97th in coverage, 92nd in rush defense, and 98th in special teams - a huge mismatch for UCLA’s defense that ranks 9th overall, 1st in the pass rush, 16th in coverage, 18th in rush defense, and 39th in tackling. We also have a strong mismatch in special teams as UCLA ranks 35th in PFF where USC ranks 90th. UCLA’s offense has an advantage in every FEI category and their defense is ranked high enough to evenly match with the high-powered USC offense, but USC has put those numbers up against much weaker competition. Love this bet.

NC State/Vtech Under 41.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Taking unders have made me nauseous as so many times a special teams or defense TD is the difference in a win or loss but we tread on with these as the spreadsheet is dark RED favoring the under in every category, PFF, FEI, and PPD. NC State’s offense should really struggle in protecting their QB as they rank 80th in pass blocking on the season - the biggest strength of this Vtech team that ranks 6th in pass rushing. In general Vtech’s defense has been playing a hell of a lot better the last month opposed to earlier in the season, even against Lousiville they had a PFF score of 63 - their offense just couldnt get anything going which should be similar against a tough NC state defense that just held a much better Miami and Wake Forest offense to 6 points the last two weeks. In FEI, NC State defense ouranks VTech’s offense in every category and by an average differential of 43 ranks. NC State’s offense is the bottom 5% of almost every category leaving Vtech’s defense to outrank them by an average differential of 65 ranks! Both teams struggle with big plays ranking 99th and 83rd in plays over 10+ yards. Both defenses don’t allow big plays over 10+ yards ranking 18th and 53rd - even with Vtech’s 53rd ranking it should go up a few ranks this week as NC state ranks 103th leaving a differential of 50 ranks. Both special teams are ranked in the top ⅓ of the league so hopefully that leads to good field position for the defenses. Take the UNDER!~

UNC +8.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Trap line? Ok - I’ll bite

UCF +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
I had to do a double take when looking at the scores last week seeing Texas Tech holding Kansas’s offense to 13 points - then it all made sense knowing Bean went down early leaving Kansas with their 3rd string QB. Putting up 16 points to win against a Kansas team is not very impressive. UCF’s team seems to be all back and healthy and jiving now and blew out Oklahoma State 45-3 last week they average 16.6 yards per pass and 5.75 yards per rush. They held Okie State to 52 yards rushing and 5.8 yards per pass with 3 INT’! Texas Tech backup QB Morton should struggle like he did last year - this year he has only started against soft defenses which is why his numbers have slightly improved. UCF’s weakness on defense is their run game but T. Tech is a throw first team so I think the style of play gives another big advantage.

UF/Missouri over 55.5 (-117) ) Risking 1.76 units to win 1.5 units
I love this play for many reasons. First both defenses are badly banged up with UF losing its starting LB/captain Shemar James at the beginning of this month and allowing 35+ in evey game since. He was their leading tackler and Missouri will also be without their leading tackler/LB Tyron Hopper. Even with those key defensive players, the PFF number show strong advantages to both offenses as UF has struggled in coverage ranking 98th, so Cook should have a field day with his 19th overall pass ranking and 10th best ranked receivers. The FEI numbers show TRIPLE digit differentials for Missouri’s offense over UF’s defense with an average of 86 ranks! Florida’s defense ranks 132nd in plays over 10+ yards allowed and Missouri ranks 13th in plays over 10+ yards. The last 6 years this matchup has gone under the total, leaving us some value but I think this is the year it finally goes over. A good spot to take Cook over passing yards too but love this total play for 1.5x!

Oregon State ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Not only do we get Oregon State at home against an undefeated team but the style of play and weather should strongly favor us as well. Oregon State is one of the best in the league at running, ranking 15th in rushing and 1st in run blocking - the biggest weakness of this Wash defense that ranks 73rd against the run in PFF. Washington prefers to throw, 60% of the time, but Oregon State’s secondary is their strength, ranking 26th in coverage. It should be cold, wet, and rainy - giving more advantage to the run first team. I think we have the much better coaching staff as well. I love this game and matchup and think Oregon State grinds out a tough one.

 

[B.A.R.]

Just a wealth of info each week. Thank you. I see a big week forthcoming.

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 12: 7-6 (+0.88 units)
Season YTD: 67-70 (-12.96 units)

Sorry no writeups today- busy week with fam and work. Maybe a few tmrw but we have some kicking off very soon so no time!

Week 13:
Iowa +3 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
Miami -8.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Missouri -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
New Mexico +6.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

 

[Bubbalicious]

R
Enjoy your posts the below is from BC chatter, As BC guy not going to game but kids and their friends are going. Just food for thought on your selection.

Miami might be just 6-5 overall, and they might be 2-5 in the ACC, but they are no slouch. Their ACC losses are against good teams - FSU, Louisville, UNC, NC St., and GT...and remember that GT loss was the crazy one where they could have taken knees but didn't and then fumbled. They beat Texas A&M early, they beat Clemson, and they beat UVA. Through the season, both their offense and their defense has been more efficient than ours had been <https://x.com/JBudDavis/status/1726628289991909823?s=20> . BC has opened by a TD home dog <https://x.com/CircaSports/status/1726319814376137157?s=20> even though the Canes are currently riding a 3-game losing stream.



I'm sure you're all aware of Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke. He has been among the ACC QB leaders for the last couple years, and there has been all sorts of attention paid to him this season, too. At times he can be absolutely deadly. At other times, he can make some curious decisions, and some bad play during this losing streak actually caused him to lose his starting position heading into their matchup against FSU two weeks ago. However, the QB that started over Van Dyke, Emory Williams, went out hurt in that game, so Van Dyke finished up the game and was back under center last week, too, in their very close loss against Louisville.



When Van Dyke is on, he is a force. He completes over 61% of his passes in ACC play and has thrown for over 2400 yards already this season. But he also has thrown 12 interceptions this year, and that's more than he's thrown the last 2 years combined, and that's why he lost his starting job. An opportunistic secondary can take possessions away from Miami, but we're going to have play much better on defense than we did against Pitt for us to turn the tables on Van Dyke.



Miami has the #28 defense in the nation allowing 326.8 YPG (our D is #67). Miami has been exceptional against the run; they are #9 in the country allowing just under 93 rushing yards per game, although Louisville's terrific rushing game did gain 160+ against them. However, FSU only ran for 57, and NC St. only went for 108. And those are games that Miami lost! Miami is much more susceptible against the pass (80th in the nation averaging 233.9 YPG), but that's not exactly an area where BC has excelled lately.



This is going to be a very tough test for BC football. I'd really like us to get win #7 on the season, but we're going to absolutely need to play our best football of 2023 to do it, and we have not been doing that these last couple weeks. Hope springs eternal that we can put it together while maybe Miami has mentally checked out as they end a disappointing season. Who knows? But for us to win this, we are going to have to run effectively against a good rushing defense, we are going to have to pass effectively and not turn the ball over in key situations, and we're going to have to find a way to stymie a solid Miami offense, and that has been a big challenge for our defense these last couple weeks.

 

[Bubbalicious]

sorry wrong thread

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 71-70 (-8.96 units)

Week 13 Adds:
Louisville -7.5 (-104)
Michigan ML (-164)
FAU +4.5 (-115)
Syracuse ML (-120)
Wisconsin ML (-135)
Maryland/Rutgers Under 44.5 (-106)
VTech ML (-125)
FSU -5.5 (-125)
Iowa State +10.5 (-120)


Louisville -7.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Here we have a much stronger team on paper, with strong mismatches in PFF, FEI, and PPD. In PFF Louisville outranks every positional mismatch on both sides of the ball - by an average of 30 ranks on defense and 25 ranks on offense. In FEI, Louisville’s defense again outranks Kentucky in every category matchup by an average of 52 ranks! On offense they outrank in all by a few categories by slim margins and by an average of 12 ranks across all categories. Kentucky offense struggles at getting big plays, ranking 55th in plays over 10+ yards,. Lousivilles defense is very strong in that area, ranking 21st in plays over 10+ yards allowed. The same mismatch is true for Lousiville offense who ranks 7th in plays over 10+ yards - a struggle for UK defense that ranks 74th in plays over 10+ yards. Kentucky’s offenses especially struggles in short drive situations, running 115th in the nation - a place where Lousiville thrives on defense ranking 18th in short field situations. Kentucky’s offense has struggled on 3rd down’s ranking 72nd in the nation, a place where Lousiville defense has done exceptionall well ranking 11th in the nation in 3rd down conv allowed. Louisville will be at home and this should turn into a blowout.

Michigan ML (-164) Risking 1.64 units to win 1 units
On paper these teams are pretty equally matched - the eye test though tells me Michigan is the much better team and track record.

FAU +4.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
If JT Daniels sits out of this one like he did last week, I think FAU can win outright. We are betting on the much stronger defense as FAU’s defense overall ranks 33rd, 54th in coverage, 18th against the run and 21st in tackling. A big advantage over Rice who ranks 84th overall on defesne, 55th in coverage, 98th against the run and 51st in tackling. In FEI the numbers show bigger advantages as FAU is great at busted drive rates and turnover drive rates - a problem for this Rice offense who ranks 123rd in busted drive rate and 116th in turnover drive rate. RIce offense ranks 92nd in TFL allowed - a huge mismatch for FAU defense that ranks 10th in TFL. Rice should be playing from behind the chains a lot and I love FAU in this matchup.

Syracuse ML (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
We have the better defense, on senior day,in a revenge game, much better at home, playing for a bowl game, with a head coach just fired - going up against a Wake team that continues to shuffle QB’s, is much worse away from home, and not playing for a bowl and slow mesh offense has come to a hault the last two weeks averaging 6 and 7 points in the last two games. Syracuse should run all over Wake Forest, especially with new QB converted TE - Dan Villari who has 284 rushing yards in his first two games. He completed every pass last week but only for an average of 4.2 ypc. Syracuse will beat them down slowly,

Wisconsin ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
Huge rivalry game, Wisconsin has struggled with Mordecai out but he’s back now and Braelon Allen should run for 200+ yards against this Minn defense that ranks 90th in ypp allowed and 118th in PFF in defending the run. We have significant advantages on defense and special teams, where Wisconsin ranks 24th in tackling and 53rd in special teams. Minnesota in contrast ranks 108th in tackling and 112th in special teams according to PFF. The FEI numbers show big advantages to both defenses - but more so to Wisconsin and their offensive FEI numbers were severely hampered when Mordecai was out. I think Fickel ends the year off well and I really like the new offense Phil Longo implemented this year.

Maryland/Rutgers Under 44.5 (-106)
The strength of both of these teams on defense should be on full display. Rutgers loves to run but they’ll be running into a Maryland front that has only allowed 3.3 yards per rush to opponents. Maryland loves to throw the ball, but Rutgers pass defense is one of the best in the nation, ranking 6tth in ypp allowed, 26th in completion %, and 16th in coverage. Both teams are in top ⅓ of tackling. In FEI both defenses show strong mismatches with Marylands defense outranking by 20 ranks accross all categories and Rutgers by 47 ranks. Both offenses struggle with big plays, Maryland ranks 76th in plays over 10+ yards and 81st in plays over 30+ yards. Rutgers defense ranks 7th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 1st in plays over 30+ yards allowed - they dont give up big plays. The same mismatch can be see for Marylands defense who surprisingly ranks 6th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 10th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. Another problem for this Rutgers offense that ranks 104th in plays over 10+ yards and 132nd in plays over 30+ yards. This is a rivalry game where both coaches have played each other the last few years and know each other well. Last year Maryland shut out Rutgers but this year this Rugers team is much better so I expect a close low scoring game.

Vtech ML (125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1units
I have Vtech the stronger team in almost all statistical categories. The biggest mismatch is going to be at the line of scrimmage, where UVA has struggled to protect their QB ranking 128th in pass blocking. This should be a big problem against Vtech that ranks 11th in pass rush and averages 3rd in the nation in sack %. Vtech is also the much stronger defense ranking #33rd in opponents ypp and although they have struggled against the run, ranking #85th in ypc allowed - its a much bigger mismatch as UVA cant run the ball, averaging 3 ypc on the season. Meanwhile their defense allows 5.1 yards per rush to all defenses so Vtech’s offense should move the ball just find. Vtech’s offensive numbers are bad but have improved lately under Drones. In FEI we have strong mismatches across the board on both offense and defense - Vtech’s offense outranks UVA’s defense by an average of 36 ranks accross all categories - especially in first down rate, offensive efficiency, and points per drive. Vtech’s defense outranks UVA’s offense by an average of 30 ranks across all categories - and the mismatch is especially large in first down rate and busted drive rate. Vtech defense has been especially good at the “bend and dont break” defense in long drive situations they rank 38th - a problem for UVA’s offense that ranks 133rd in long drive ranks. Vtech pulls off the rivalry upset on the road.

FSU -5.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
FSU should come to the swamp and blow out UF - I’ve talked about a few times the injuries on UF side including their leading LB/tackler and FSU should look to pound their in-state rival into the ground.

Iowa State +10.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
As expected Matt Campbell has turned this team around after struggling at the start of the season. They have won 4 of the last 6 and have kept it close with Texas and Kansas and don’t see how this one is not a close one score game too. On paper, in PFF, Iowa State is the much better team ranked 32nd overall, 16th in coverage, 45th in run defense and 62nd in tackling. Despite Kansas States’ explosive offense their defense has need for improvement ranking 77th overall, 45th in coverage, 104th in run defense and 121st in tackling! In FEI the teams are about even on paper so we love the extra 10 points. We also have strong advantage in special teams as Iowa state has been stellar ranking 17th in SFEI, 17th in net field position, and 23rd in PFF special teams. Last week Kansas State’s defense allowed Kansas’s 3rd string QB to complete almost 70% of his passes for over 10 yards per pass. I think this one is one possession game and worst case we get a back door with such a bad defense on Kansas States side.

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 13: 11-2 (+8.9 units)
Season YTD: 78-72 (-4.06 units)

Lets keep the heater going! No writeups sorry busiest week of the year with museum opening. All risking 1 unit

Week 14: Championships:
Boise/UNLV over 60 (-110)
SMU/Tulane Under 47.5 (-120)
Alabama +5.5 (-106)
Iowa +22 (-103)
Louisville +1.5 (+100)

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 14: 3-2 (+0.97 units)
Season YTD: 81-74 (-3.09 units)

It’s BOWL SEASON AND WE”RE ON A HEATER AND DESPERATELY HUNGRY TO END THE SEASON IN THE BLACK - In the 11 years we have been posting picks online - Dapper Dan's BOWL picks have gone 113-94 (+25.62 units)! We enjoy the extra rest and spend that time working OVERTIME! More bowls to come next week.

Bowls:
Ohio/Georgia Southern Under 49 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This strength of the Ohio team has been their defense as they rank 12th in ypp allowed, 13th in 3d down conv%, 3rd in red zone scoring, 6th in points allowed. The FEI numbers show HEAVILY RED differential mismatches for this Ohio defense vs the GA. Southern offense - by an average of 48 ranks across all categories. GA Southern doesnt get the big play much, ranking 69th in plays over 10+ yards and 109th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Ohio’s defense doesn't give those big plays up often, ranking 24 in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 21st in plays of 30+ yards allowed. GA Southern’s offense has really struggled in translating long drive situations into points ranking 129th in the league. Ohio’s defense ranks 15th in long drive situations per points. Even in short drive situations, the mismatch differential is 48 ranks too. More reason to love the under - all of the offensive opt outs for Ohios, starting QB, (and their backup is injured) and their top 2 rushers. Despite GA southern’s defense being really bad, I think this completely green Ohio offense will shoot themselves in the foot enough to keep this one under the total. There’s nothing more nauseating to me than taking an under in college football these days as I’ve had so many bad beats with them but let's not be dissuaded by those low chance occurrences.

Miami (OH) +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Despite starting their 3rd string QB in this one, I still love getting this many points with the much stronger defense and special teams. Miami OH’s defense is top 20 in almost every category - including yards per play (ranked 13th), 3rd down conv % (ranked 9th), red zone scoring % (ranked 7th), yards per rush allowed (ranked 28th), yards per pass allowed (ranked 16th) and sack % (ranked 12th). Their offense despite being with a new QB under center will be up against an App state defense that has been getting gouged on the ground, ranking #119th in yards per rush allowed, - something this Miami OH offense loves to do rushing 60% of the time. App State’s other comparative defensive numbers are piss poor as well ranked #83rd in ypp allowed, 81st in 3rd down conv %, 35th in RZ scoring %. The other huge mismatch is in special teams, where Miami OH has been the best team in the league according to PFF, ranking 1st and App State ranks a horrendous #117th. Other special team metrics show a similar mismatch as BCF toys has Miami OH ranked 6th overall in special teams and 3rd in net field position, where App state ranks 97th in special teams and 34th in NFP. These two glaringly obvious mismatches are enough for me to take the 7 points.

New Mexico State/Fresno State Over 51(-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
New Mexico State ML (-160) .75x . Risking 1.2 units to win .75 units
Ok so I’m seeing a high scoring affair all over the spreadsheet and the fact that we have JERRY KILL coaching one side and the intern on the other - its hard to imagine a world where Jerry loses. Since I was limited for time on a writeup today - I decided to dig into my archives and quoted a 2017 writeup I did for Rutgers as Jerry Kill came out of retirement to be the offensive coordinator. I love this write-up because this was when COACHESBYTHENUMBERS offered an easy to use ATS tracking platform for free - something they have long since got rid of and I desperately seek another tool as nice as this one was back in 2012-2015. Here’s the writeup and remember to always ask that handicapper you know that didnt exist three years ago to provide a writeup: (we got ones going back over 10 years in the right corners of the internet):
“That’s right, Jerry Kill from Minnesota has returned from retirement. He is one of the most under-rated coaches of all time, and as of ’15, was the number one coach at 2nd half adjustments, compiling a winning % of 67.8% ATS in the 2nd half going 40-19 and +17.26 units. Coincidentally, he is playing against a coach that has one of the worst 2nd half ATS records (pre-2015), Chris Peterson, with an ATS record of 47-56 and 45% and -13.13 units.”

California +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
I really like this Cal team since Mendoza took over the starting QB position - granted he lost his first 4 games but they were against the toughest the PAC has to offer in Oregon State, Oregon, Utah, and USC (ok just kidding about USC but he put up 49 points against them). He has totally redeemed himself after winning the last three, including a huge 30-7 upset over UCLA. He’s got a talented receiving corps (ranked 43rd in PFF) and a 1200+ yards, 5.5 ypc workhorse behind him in Jaydn Ott. On the other side of the ball I’m not a fan of backup replacement Behran Morton, and he will be severely hampered as most likely 4 out of his top 5 receivers will be out (scary for a team who loves to throw) and their starting LT that accounted for almost 900 snaps at his career in T.Techs. Cal’s defense has struggled at times this year but that was against competent offenses and not sure this re-organized T. Tech offense will be able to keep up. Take the points

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan picks

12/22/23 Bowls

Gtech/Ucf over 66.5 (-108)

 

[2daBank]

Dapper Dan picks

12/22/23 Bowls

Gtech/Ucf over 66.5 (-108)

They could easily score 80 here, long as no bs slow start or fgs

 

[DapperDan]

Hell ya . Sprinkling some on props too. Just left for family vacation but going to work on some write ups for last bowls but tmrws kinda lame

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 1-5 (-4.68 units)
Season YTD: 82-79 (-7.77 units)

Bowls have been brutal with all these opt-outs, let’s see if we can turn this ship around.

Troy -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Duke’s 3 of it’s Top 5 tacklers are out, it’s top 2 QB’s and top 2 RB’s all out. Their starting center who played the majority of the season got injured and missed the last few games too. Their defensive mastermind head coach Mike Elko has also left so this Duke team will be a shell of who they were and had already lost 4 of it’s last 6 after Riley got injured. Granted Duke has a much stronger SOS but Troy has big advantages in PFF - ranking 11th overall in defense, 22nd in the pass rush, 24th in coverage, 1st in run defense, and 29th in tackling. Duke’s offense has struggled to protect their QB ranking 61st in pass blocking and all of their PFF’s numbers of dropped off significantly since the middle of the season, their strength was their defense but this is not going to be the same defense on the field and they were already being hampered at the end of the season by the lack of offense as they ranked 56th overall, 92nd in rush defense and 93rd in tackling by seasons end. Troy should win this one handedly and the big Power 5 vs thee Group of 5 is giving us a little value here.

Air Force +1.5 (-106) Risking 1.59 units to win 1.5 units
Air Force really struggled down the stretch, losing it’s last 4 games after winning it’s first 8 games - but that was largely due to the injury of starting QB Zac Larrier who should be back in this one, including a few other key players that missed the last few games. More importantly, nearly the entire coaching staff for James Madison fled from the program after a historic year for them, forcing them to hire 5 new coaches just for the bowl game in order to fill the void (not sure if this has ever happened before). Mike Shanahan won’t be calling plays and to make things worse - starting QB who took all the snaps is out, leading WR, Top 3 of it’s tacklers on defense. I can’t imagine a team with this many departures to pull out the win - tack Air Force for 1.5 units!

Northwestern +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Northwestern ML (+210) Risking .25 units to win .53 units
I’ve been really impressed with this NW team down the stretch, winning 4 of it’s last 5 and only losing to Iowa by 3 points. Surprisingly, their defense out ranks Utah’s in most categories, including ranking 52nd overall (opposed to Utah’s 68th rank) and in coverage where NW ranks 46th and Utah ranks 84th! Utah’s offense has struggled at producing big plays with Rising out all year, they rank 96th in plays over 10+ yards and this NW team is good at not allowing the big plays ranking 25th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. Utah’s defense has been so stout, ranking 83rd in plays over 10+ yards allowed. Utah has a lot more opt-outs and injuries as well, with two of it’s top 5 tacklers on the season opting out and their leading WR. I think NW could win this one but definitely should cover the 7 points.

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 4-6 (-2.8 units)
Season YTD: 85-80 (-5.89 units)

Minnesota -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is a huge coaching mismatch and SOS on paper. I’ve had head coach Scott Loeffler as one of the worst rated play callers in college football dating back to 2011 at Temple, From there he went to Virginia Tech from ‘12-’15 and his offenses were consistently in the bottom 25% of ypp and most pertinent metrics. In 2016 he went to BC for 3 years where he ranked 126th, 99th and 99th in ypp. For the last 4 years he’s been at Bowling Green and last year was replaced as play-caller finally but they didn't improve as in 2021 they ranked 117th and this past year ranked 101st in ypp. These are his average ypp’s over the last 8 years for his offenses: 2016: 126th. 2017: 99th, 2018: 99th. 2019: 125th. 2020: 92nd. 2021: 117th. 2022: 101st. PJ Fleck on the other hand is one of my top tier rated coaches nd although his team struggled this year they may get to see a little spark with new QB, Cole Kramer. He has been a backup for 4 years learning Fleck’s offenses but never got his opportunity to start a game. This will be his first time ever starting and the team is certainly rallying around him as you don’t see many backup’s who have been with a program for such a long time and never got a start. He still has one year eligibility so if he can muster up a good bowl game he has the opportunity to be first in line to start next season with Kalikamanis transferring. Minnesota is a run-frist team and this depleted Bowling Green defense won’t be able to keep up. Sagarin’s SOS rating is pretty significant as Minnesota has played the 41st toughest schedule and Bowling Green 104th. Minnesota should win easily and I also kinda like their TT over may sprinkle a little on there.

Texas State ML (-161) Risking 1.61 units to win 1 units
I like Texas State to pull off the win here as they have a few key advantages despite their defense being one of the worst in the league (both teams are horrendous). But the one strength of this Texas State defense has been their pass rush which is ranked 14th in PFF and had its most sacks in a season since 1997. This is a big problem for Rice who’s starting QB JT Daniels medically retired due to getting hit so much this season, their offensive line ranks 120th in pass blocking. AJ Pagett came in relief at the end of the season and won 2 of 3 but I’m not sold on his ability to keep pace with this proven explosive Texas State offense led by veteran TJ Finley who threw for 3300 yards, 24 TD’s and only 8 INT’s. He has 1200 yards running back Ismail Mahdi behind him who averaged 6 ypc. Even with JT Daniels under center most of the season, the FEI shows strong advantages for Texas State on offense, a differential 3x the size of Rice’s offense over Texas State’s defense. The average across all FEI categories is 63 ranks for Texas State where Rice’s is only 22 ranks. Rice’s defense really struggled at allowing big plays over 10+ yards they ranked 114th and plays over 30+ yards they ranked 92nd. Texas State’s offense ranks 8th in plays over 10+ yards and 62nd in plays over 30+ yards so they should get plenty of first downs with a differential of 106 ranks. Despite Texas State’s bad defense, Rice’s offense has struggled at big plays ranking 78th in plays over 10+ yards. If Texas State can get a nice lead this may be a blow-out with the pass rush pinning their ears back but the defense is so bad lets take the ML to be safe. The could squeak out the win and have a much better kicker who has hit 100% of his kicks this season going 14 for 14 where Rice’s kicker went 8 for 12.

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 6-6 (-0.8 units)
Season YTD: 87-80 (-3.89 units)

After a rough start to the bowls - have we re-aligned our chi and won the last 5 straight?

Bowl Adds:
Tulane/Vtech Under 44.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
So we have Tulane with strong advantages in all of their numbers, but of course all of their opt-outs are going to affect those. Both teams prefer to run the ball, and control the clock, with one TOP% but bottom ⅓ % of plays per game. Both defensive lines have strong advantages in the pass rush, with V-tech’s offensive line ranking 93rd in pass blocking and Tulanes defensive line ranking 26th in the pass rush. Tulane’s offensive line ranks 98th in pass blocking and Vtech’s defensive line ranking 7th in the pass rush. The strength of this Tulane defense is their run-stopping which ranks 37th in PFF. Although Vtech’s run defense was horrible over the course of the year ranking 116th it should hold up against a depleted Tulane Group of 5 offense. The weather should also factor in a favor as it’s expected to rain throughout the game. Trying not to cringe taking another under and having it blown in 4th qtr by defensive TDs….

West Virginia -5.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
You’ve probably heard about all the opt-outs/injuries on UNC side, WVU is coming in mostly intact and had a surprisingly great season, going 8-4 and winning big in 4 of it’s last 5 with its only loss being Oklahoma. The FEI numbers for WVU’s offense vs UNC’s defense show an average differential of 53 ranks across all categories. Although UNC’s is a bit higher, that’s with a completely different offense on the field then there will be today. WVU loves to run the ball 63% of the time, and does it well ranking 5th in rushing PFF and averaging 5.2 ypc. A big weakness for this (now depleted) UNC defense that allows 4.3 ypc and ranks 67th in pff rush defense. We also have a much more disciplined team as WVU ranked 27th in penalties per play where UNC ranks 77th. This should be a blowout

Louisville -5.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Louisville has a well-rounded enough offense and it will be against this joke of a PAC 12 defense so they should still score at will without their leading rusher and receiver. Plummer is back and he should pick apart this defense that ranks 89th overall, 102nd in coverage, 91st in rush defense and 95th in tackling. Louisivlle’s defense was one of the best in the league ranking 20th overall, 15th in the pass rush, 40th in coverage, 31st against the run, and 42nd in tackling - without Caleb Williams and Marshawn Lloyd playing - thats more then 80%+ of the total yards accounted for by this offense. In FEI, across all categories, we have a differential on offense by an average of 47 ranks, their defense even outranks USC’s offense by an average of 1 rank across all categories. Louisville had a number of plays over 10+ yards ranking 19th in the nation, and 24th in plays over 30+ yards. An obvious problem for this USC defense that ranks 102nd in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 101st in plays over 30+ yards allowed. I don’t see why Lousiville doesn’t win this by at least a TD. Two TD favorites oh no I love when people make blanket statements like just take the dog in bowl games - matchups are more important then trends - trends always change.

Texas A&M +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Despite all the opt-outs in this one, the numbers are too overwhelming in favor of Texas AM to lay off this game. In every category I track we have significant advantages, in PFF - Oklahoma State has one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking 90th overall, 99th in coverage, 94th in rush defense and 79th in tackling. Texas AM - one of the best, ranking 21st overall, 18th in the pass rush, 57th in coverage and 22nd against the run - despite Jimbo being out, 2nd year DC Elijah Robinson (who worked as co-def with Durkin last year) will be coaching so their defense without key parts should still do some damage - they ranked 8th overall in TFL. I doubt Oklahoma State will get any push at the line of scrimmage (even with two STUD DL sitting out) and have to rely on Alan Bowman who has 13 TDs and 12 INT’s this season, he is very inconsistent and has had some horrendous games including losses to South Alabama and UCF and even two weeks ago against BYU, but their run game helped them pull out the W. Texas A&M's offense averaged 37 points in each of its final 5 games, 3 of those with Henderson who showed that he can be a dual threat which will only cause more problems for this horrible defense. In FEI across all categories, Texas A&M's offense outranks Ok. State’s defense by an average of 40 ranks. On defense Aggies outranks Ok. State by an average of 27 ranks across all categories. Texas A&M was great at big plays over 10+ yards ranking 48th in the nation but anyone can average a play over 10+ yards against an Oki State team that ranks 115th in the nation at allowing them. Conversely Texas A&M defense ranks 47th in allowing them and Okie State’s offense has struggled in accruing them ranking 72nd in the nation. The last time these two played in a bowl game, Texas AM squeaked out a 24-21 win and I expect this to be another close game so we love getting this many points off the opener - lots of money in on Okie State.

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 7-9 (-3.23 units)
Season YTD: 87-80 (-6.32 units)

No time for write-ups today sorry busy with the baby and traveling.

Bowl Adds:
Rutgers ML (-130) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NC State +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Arizona ML (-128) Risking 1.92 units to win 1.5 units

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 9-10 (-1.83 units)
Season YTD: 89-81 (-4.92 units)

Got sick, 4 month old baby, no writeups sorry fellas. I would just be a bunch of gibberish though considering all these opt-outs. No not an excuse, just the reality of college football bowl situation. At Least next year the 12 teams will be motivated

Kentucky +4 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Iowa State -9.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Missouri +4.5 (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Missouri ML (+186) Rising .5 units to win .93 units


WHERES BANK - WERE GETTING BACK IN THE BLACK TONIGHT WITH MISSOURIIIII

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 12-11 (+0.43 units)
Season YTD: 92-82 (-2.66 units)

We are creeping back into the black! So still no writeups today sorry still recovering from flu and today's card really blows but I intend to have full write-ups for Mondays card which looks freaking sweet and a great way to end off the year and potentially get back in the GREEN - which would be the 8th season out of 12 seasons (posted online) that we were positive - this is very frickin important as 8 of 12 is way better than 7 of 12 seasons posted online. We will workkkkkkkkk

Today a rare prop because the card sucks so much. I’m going to try to get into props more next year as reviewing all my spreadsheets theres a lot of mismatches that would be good props (i.e. top 20 rush offense vs bottom 20 rush defense, coverage, etc. )

Penn State ML (-184) Risking 1.84 units to win 1 units
Aub/Maryland Under 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Drew Allar (PENN ST QB) over 182.5 Pass Yards (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 14-12 (+0.59 units)
Season YTD: 94-83 (-2.5 units)

Such a bueatifful day, happy new year all. No write ups sorrry next year will be back to them regularly imma play the newborn card as why I don’t have time lol…all one unit unless noted next to

Bowl adds:
Wisconsin +10.5 (-111)
Iowa +6 (-116)
Iowa ML (+200) .5x
Liberty/Oregon over 67.5 (-113)
Michigan (-117) 1.5x
Texas -4 (-110) 1.5x

 

[DapperDan]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 16-16 (-1.35 units)
Season YTD: 96-87 (-4.44)

Final Bowl Game:
Washington +4.5 (-104) Risking 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Washington ML (+188) Risking 1 unit to win 1.88 units
Wash/Mich Over 55 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

Last Hoorah - I usually don’t do this but we’re close enough and I would like to at-least make an attempt at getting in the green to end this season and I really like Washington with the points. Despite Michigan having the best secondary in the country they have not seen a QB and WR corps of this caliber (the best) - each team should score at will and Washington hopefully pulls out the upset and we end the season in the GREEN! Good luck to all.. Already excited for next season as despite this slightly losing year - we learned a lot of shit and grabbed some new sites (and lost some rip footballoutsiders.com)