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Here's BTB.
6-3 on the season after losing last week on Purdue +3.
Powers won his non-power 5 wager on Troy and he's 5-1 last 6 weeks
Best Bet week #10 it is Arkansas +6.5. WIN
They discussed a new Offensive Coordinator going to speed up plays and cut playbook down substantially, plus their tough schedule and this week off a bye.
J-Ville St @ SoCarolina -15.5/54.5: LOSE
This seems to be the non-power 5 game this week. Powers: I am on the favorite punching down in class and that’s "the pick here is Scary -15.5." His power rated line is -17. Strength of schedule disparity is his reasoning. Some metrics have Scary having played #1 SOS and J-State is #133rd. He says if you reverse the schedules, you would not have J-State favored by 15. Also, he notes J-State runs tempo...you will see more plays and that’s to Scary benefit in this game. J-State has 18 point loss to Liberty and 2 TD loss to Coastal, 2 best teams they played. "I usually don’t do this but laying the 15.5 with Scary." He likes Sellers back-up for Scary if he comes in in 4th qtr.
Washington @ USC +3.5/76.5
Two of highest scoring teams. USC is #2nd (46 pts per game) & UDub #9 (40 pts per game). USC games avg 78.4 points per game, the most in FBS. Huskies last 4 wins by only 27 combined points after first 4 wins came by 27+ points per game. UDub 8-0 for 1st time since 2016. Per last week UDub vs Stanford they had been dealing with the flu and were not at full strength in practice/at the game. USC ATS are tied with longest losing streak at 0-6.
Powers on Huskie offense vs USC defense: “Breaking news Washington has significant advantage, one of biggest on games we have done on this podcast.” Huskie counting stats – top 10 in yds per play, yds per game, points per game. But, last couple games agst below avg teams [AZSt & Stanford] has not looked great. Is Penix banged up? Penix 60% completion rate last few weeks. Overall you still have top 10 QB, borderline top 5. They struggle with being one dimensional in relying on pass. Initially in games #2-#5 they did have some run game with 130 rush per game but that’s been cut in ½ the last 3 weeks. “Receivers are in top 2 corps in nation right with LSU/OhioState and I still find it hard to not see a lot of success for Washington’s offense. Cal had a lot of success with a freshman QB and a 4th string running back and Washington will be just fine.” USC had looked improved on defense early in the year but last 5 weeks not so much, allowing 43 pts per game, 466 yds per game. Are they running out of gas on D? Playing their 7th straight week, more than any team in country right now. First six games they had 22 sacks, last 3 games they have a total of 1 sack – no pressure on QB. Washington’s offense doesn’t give up sacks or pressure allowing 5 sacks on 311 pass attempts. Penix should have a “field day here.” One of USC’s better defense players, Zion Branch, is out for the year. “I’d be stunned if we do not see 35+ for Huskie’s offense.” Only Cal, Vanderbilt, Colorado and Stanford defenses allow more points than USC in FBS, allowing 34+ points in last 5 games for 1st time since 1922.
Payne on USC offense vs Washington defense: Caleb has 29 total TDs, 10 giveaways in last 10 games vs ranked teams, 80 total TDs and 7 giveaways in last 20 games vs unranked teams. Washington defense is vulnerable on ground and the air. This is a big game for Lincoln Riley. If USC goes 8-4 with their recruiting class, Lincoln be in trouble. USC offense seems like they have more problems from play to play, including their offensive line. There s also not a clear #1 receiver getting open. They are not getting the ball to their most consistent weapon, Marshawn Lloyd at RB. USC does not disguise their offense and he still sees same mechanical problems he saw 2 weeks ago with Williams (covered in this thread then). If Caleb is kept clean he could do what last 3 teams did agst UDub, 52 for 64 in passes less than 9 yards. Hard to hit deep shot vs Huskies. Gave stats that proved UDub is easier to run agst and USC should do that. “Part of the reason we seeing early in the week USC money is UDub’s injuries on defense. 4 key defenders, battling or will miss; Tuitele on the inside should be back but not full work load. “Fabb”, Turner and Nunley are all banged up and Nunley will miss the game. Fabb has not practiced and Turner is day to day. “Monitor those 4 injuries and that may decide where the line goes.”
Washington players #s1 thru #22 are good, however the question is the other 22 in depth? (When addressing their playoff chances). They need a ground game they have not gotten lately – comments from Powers.
LSU @ Bama -3/60.5:
Fourth total over 60 in last 5 meetings (3 went Over), last year LSU won in OT 32-31 as a 13.5 dog. This game will be big factor in deciding SEC West, along with A&M v Ole Miss this weekend in Oxford. Worst current ranking for Bama when they have faced LSU since 2007. 23rd meeting btw the two when both are in the top 15 ranked teams, Bama leads those games at 16-6. Last year was only the third time they both scored 30+. LSU has scored 48+ in last four games, a program record. LSU is highest scoring offense in country at 47.4 points per game and 500+ yards in 7 straight. Jaydon Daniels is a Heisman frontrunner (?). Bryan Thomas, Malik Neighbors, and Logan Diggs (receivers and RB) are primary offensive weapons.
Powers on LSU offense vs Bama defense: He begins by quoting Saban from a few years back: “Good defense does not beat good offense anymore.” Powers calls LSU’s offense the best offense in the country by metrics; yds per play #1, yds per game #1, points per game #1, Daniels #2 in QB EPA per play, #2 in QBR, 25 TDs only 3 INTs, and 500+ rushing yards. Reminds us Logan Diggs had zero carries in opener vs FlatSt. Neighbors and Thomas at WR are great with Neighbors leading nation in WR with 20 TDs. Bama will be the best defense they have faced. “Bama defense is a good defense, not a great one.” He sees Bama having an advantage with their pass rush. This is also the one weakness with LSU, Daniels taking hits he should not. LSU o line is “relatively young.” He liked Bama’s 2H vs Ole Miss and Tenny, but the performance agst Texas still concerns him. Ewers hit deep passes and LSU will certainly try that in this game. Caleb Downs for Bama in 2dary is a freshman and needs to play well. “Edge to LSU here, I think its going to be up to the other side of the ball to determine who dictates this game.” Furhman goes over prior SEC opponents and their relatively poor passing attacks vs Bama’s result agst Texas and suggest that may be a concern.
Payne on Bama offense vs LSU defense: Furhman gives stats re Bama offense, #51 in scoring, struggles in the red zone and 5 games with less than 30 points this season (having just 6 such games in last 2 seasons combined). If you’re optimistic re LSU seeming improvement on defense since they have given up just 18 pts in last two games combined ( Auburn & Army), “I just don’t see that happening and those 2 data points do nothing for me.” LSU is off the bye, but have some of best players missing. Wingo had surgery and not playing and LSU was already bad at stopping the run, outside the top 90 in rushing success rate and epa per rush allowed. Bama is top 25 in explosive rush % and power running. LSU missing players in 2dary, particularly at corner, and 2 true freshman (3 stars) Stamps and Hughes going to start in 2dary. “It will be a little rough for the LSU 2dary.” Jalen Milroe is efficient, and the offense is “wildly explosive” and on the cusp of top 10 in explosive pass rate and epa per pass. Milroe has 17 big time throws and zero turnover worthy when throwing 20 yds+. He throws deep 23% of drop backs. Out of 154 qualifying QBs, Milroe is #3 in adjusted accuracy throwing deep and LSU is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense. So LSU D coordinator has a choice, a light box to help with the pass but that makes them vulnerable to the Bama run game: “Leads you to believe ultimately the dam is going to break and Bama is going to have offensive success here.” Smith and Perkins for LSU are going to have to blitz to give LSU a chance on defense. Furhman noted that Bama has allowed 4 plus sacks in 7 straight games, the longest active streak in entire FBS, they are #119 in country in allowing pressure and #132 of 133 in allowing sacks.
OU @ OKState (did not give line, I am showing OU -5.5/61):
Final Bedlam. 118th meeting, longest uninterrupted series after Minny vs Wisky. OU leads 91-19-7. Gundy is 3-15. OU lost at Stillwater in 2921 37-33. Okie coming off 4 straight wins and we know what happened to OU in Lawrence.
Payne on OU offense vs Okie defense: OU was criticized for relying too heavily on the run last week and when they did pass 37% were behind the line of scrimmage and only 26% exceeded 9 yards. While Gabriel did throw early pick 6 he then completed 11 in a row. Expect more aggressive offense this week. OU’s receivers, however, are inconsistent this Stoops leads team in targets and receptions, “That’s fine but there is a limit on Stoops’ upside.” He then outlines other receivers and their inconsistency and how this is holding them back on offense. OkieSt defense is fine but you can hit explosive run plays agst them and they are outside top 100 in epa per pass allowed. So OU should have some success and Walker at RB is back for OU. O line for OU is questionable. Cowboys play a 3-3-5 D and gives up 5 yds per carry and are susceptible to explosive runs. OkState is also susceptible to explosive pass and he expects OU to attack more thru the air. Nick Anderson deep for OU is possible. Payne: “I wanted to sell the Sooners, and last week wasn’t the spot for me. That was stupid not to attack that. But, I have no idea how -5.5 became an option this week. That feels very short to me. From what I am hearing behind the scenes we have another battle here between the numbers guys and the older school thought process guys who bet the largest money. I wanted to make a case for OU since I felt -5.5 was really short, but I am probably not going to be doing that.”
Powers on Cowboy’s offense vs OU defense: Okie has scored 27+ since Bowman became the starter. 2 TDs in last 3 games and 4 of last 5. Gordon at RB is the story 250+ rush last 2 and the second player in Okie history to do that along with Barry Sanders. He can also catch the ball and get receiving yards. ”I don’t know if there is a bigger turnaround on any unit in the country that OkState offense, from 1st month to what we have seen in last 4 weeks. A month ago if you asked who has the advantage I would have said OU, now from what we’ve seen from OkState offense and what we’ve seen from OU defense last few weeks I give the slight edge to OKState here.” He goes over the stats from the first 3 non-conference games and most recent games – substantial improvement in all categories. He credits changes in blocking schemes, o line improvement, Bowman named the starter, and the major story of Gordon at RB. He does not see good receivers, mentions Pressley in the slot as ok but OU is going to load box to stop Gordon. Stutsman for OU is questionable at best this week with ankle. That is a loss for OU in the middle. “I am kicking myself for [not fading] OU” and he says “I am not seeing it” for OU O or D. Last 4 weeks allowing 29 pts per game, 430 yds per game, 170 rush yds per game and with Stutsman out “ugh.” OkieState has the edge here.
Mizzu @ Georgia -16/54.5
Last year’s game was only SEC game GA won by single digits. Mizzu off a bye. Mizzu controls their destiny but are 0-17 vs #1 rank teams. GA has outgained opposition by 230 yds per game, the highest margin in FBS. Mizzu is only team in SEC in top 3 in passing yds, rushing yds and receiving yds. Furhman says “relatively speaking” GA D from the past is not elite.
Powers on Mizzu offense vs GA defense: Can see a path for success for Mizzu. Mizzu offense substantially improved over the course of the season. Cooks at qb takes care of the ball, top 20 in QBR and only 3 picks and has 5 rushing TDs. Schrader is a solid back. But, they are stepping up in class vs GA defense. Mizzu best player on offense is Burden at WR – “elite.” Need him to get touches. Can Cook at QB hit the big plays and be consistent? Can GA generate pressure? There are signs they can. I give “slight edge to GA defense here.” The KY and Florida games suggest that GA is getting faster and more motivated. As SEC season gets to the meat of schedule, they are peaking.
Payne on GA offense vs Mizzu defense: I will forgo stats but they lay out very good ones for Beck at QB, He has completed over 65% of passes (Nix at Oregon also). GA runs for 175 yds in last 6 games. GA offense has decided edge. Beck is rounding into great form since 2H in Auburn game. GA took foot off gas last week. O line improving and cited Mims. Mizzu defense is “solid”, returns 8 starters and they did good job vs GA last year. The schedule suggest that besides LSU, "Mizzu has not been tested via the air and they lost that test by a landslide." Mizzu outside top 70 in SOS and outside top 70 in epa per pass allowed, outside top 90 in explosive pass play allowed and cannot get off the field on late downs…concerns for Mizzu defense. The corners are then identified as Mizzu’s strength(?). GA is good in green zone and Mizzu is outside the top 90 on defense in green zone. “We have seen some money on Mizzu in this market. I don’t know how that correlates with the Under and if it does it has to be this side of the ball.” Mizzu did have a good game plan last year. The pace of the game, may have effect on the total? Down from 56.
KStae @ Longhorns -4.5/50.5
Texas has won 6 straight, 5 of those decided by 7 or less. KState has lost 5 straight in Austin, last 3 by a combined total of 14 points. Top 2 defenses in Big 12 by points per game, KState has allowed 15.9, Texas has allowed 16. Second and third in total defense, second and third in opponent yards per play and first and third in conference when it comes to getting off the field on third down. KState for the first time held consecutive opponents to 3 points or less since 2015 and only 3rd time this century it has happened; no 3 game streak since 1995. Texas has been an UNDER team, especially at home. 7 0f last 8 at home have been Under and 6-2 this year to the Under tying the 4th best mark in the FBS and the Under has hit in 7 straight home games agst AP ranked opponents. KState on offense has second best rushing O in Big 12 and # 5 in the country, avg 226 per game on the ground. 2 QBs Howard and Johnson (freshman) and Giddins at RB.
Payne on KState offense vs Texas defense: “Its all about the trenches on the side of the match-up.“ KState offensive line was predicted to be one of the best in the Big12, have gotten healthy and they have had 142 rushing attempts in last 3 games. Giddins and Ward at RB and Howard avg 3 yds per rush before 1st contact. KState is on cusp of Top 10 ranking in schedule adjusted offensive line yards created and over 52% of KState runs have graded successful. KState ground game has been explosive as well. But, they have faced TXTech, TCU, Houston and their avg run defenses are outside the top 80 in epa per rush allowed. Stepping up in class against Texas on the road. Texas defense front is Top 15 in defensive line yards, havoc created and tackles for loss and now top 10 in both rushing success rate allowed and epa per rush allowed. “If Texas can stalemate the KState run game not a ton of paths here for this offense, I don’t think.” You want to make Howard beat you with his arm if you can get KState in 2d/long and third/medium where Howard struggles. One injury worth monitoring is Texas linebacker, Burke. “I don’t see a path where KState can enforce their will in run game like they have last 3 weeks.”
Powers on Texas offense vs KState defense: Texas has scored 30+ for 8 straight weeks. But, bogging down in red zone last week. Murphy is the question now? Powers thinks the 30+ point streak is in jeopardy this week. Murphy was impressive in Spring game and was a hot commodity and Powers did not think Murphy would be more than a 3 point downgrade from Ewers. But after last week, that may not have been enough. Murphy had bad turnovers with int and fumble and on goal line 4th downs. He was bailed out by the defense and Worthy’s punt return TD. If you fail on 4th down and turn the ball over that is exactly how you get beat by KState. Brooks has done well recently and he thinks he will be important this week. KState has not seen receivers like Worthy and Mitchell and the one time they did, agst Mizzu, they lost. He questions Texas o line and also KState’s d line. KState has faced back-up QBs vs UCF, TCU, TxTech and now Texas. KStaate defense does not create havoc. Lots of questions here. “Tough one for me, I am going to give a slight edge KState after what I saw last week from Texas offense.” BYU’s success on 4th and goal last week is worrisome for Texas and KState is better coached and more talented. Payne says Murphy had a 27 passing rating under pressure and above 120 when not pressured. Texas also was fortunate with field position last week. If you give them long fields then you can see how the Under took some money here.
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