September 2015

hugh613

hugh613

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 56-49-4, -1.07

Tuesday:

9/1/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 902 New York Mets* -1½ -105 vs Philadelphia Phillies
9/1/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 919 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 8½ -115
9/1/2015 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 907 Pittsburgh Pirates* -1½ +105 vs Milwaukee Brewers

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YTD: 56-52-4, -4.27

Wednesday:

9/2/2015 2:20 PM MLB Baseball 954 Chicago Cubs* -144 vs Cincinnati Reds
9/2/2015 4:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 9 -125
9/2/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 971 Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays* Over 8½ -120
9/2/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 956 New York Mets* -1½ -110 vs Philadelphia Phillies
9/2/2015 8:40 PM MLB Baseball 961 Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies* Over 11 -110
*Always nice to start the month off on a losing note...

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Thanks mrob and Metallica.
 
YTD: 59-54-4, -3.91

Thursday:

9/3/2015 8:40 PM MLB Baseball 905 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies* Over 10½ -115 *2 UNITS*

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YTD: 60-54-4, -1.91

Saturday:

9/5/2015 4:05 PM MLB Baseball 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals* Under 7½ -110
9/5/2015 4:05 PM MLB Baseball 929 Philadelphia Phillies/Boston Red Sox* Over 8½ -135
*Jaime Garcia's been an under machine at Busch this season (1-5). A little concerned with Charlie Morton, but think this is the right call. As for the Sox, Wade Miley's games at Fenway this season have seen an average of 11.0 RPG (12 games), and his starts during the day overall this season have seen an average of 12.5 RPG (12 games). No reason to think the recent over trend at Fenway doesn't continue this afternoon.

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YTD: 62-54-4, +0.09

Sunday:

9/6/2015 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 969 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays* Over 8½ -120
9/6/2015 1:35 PM MLB Baseball 956 Washington Nationals* -1½ -120 vs Atlanta Braves
9/6/2015 1:35 PM MLB Baseball 979 Philadelphia Phillies/Boston Red Sox* Over 8½ -130

:cheers3:
 
YTD: 64-55-4, +0.79

Monday:

9/7/2015 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 902 Washington Nationals* -1½ +110 vs New York Mets
9/7/2015 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Tampa Bay Rays* -137 vs Detroit Tigers
9/7/2015 1:35 PM MLB Baseball 919 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox* Over 9½ -145

:cheers3:
 
YTD: 65-57-4, -0.58

Tuesday:

9/8/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 953 New York Mets/Washington Nationals* Under 7½ -123
9/8/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 957 Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds* Under 7½ -110
9/8/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox* Over 10 -125

:cheers3:
 
YTD: 65-69-4, -4.16

Wednesday:

9/9/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 904 Washington Nationals* -106 vs New York Mets
9/9/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees* Over 8½ -120
9/9/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 919 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox* Over 10 -115

:cheers3:
 
Good luck tonight, hugh. I wish my ytd total was as close to even as yours, this shit just ain't fun anymore...
 
YTD: 66-61-4, -5.42

Sunday:

9/13/2015 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 903 St. Louis Cardinals* -135 vs Cincinnati Reds *2 UNITS*
9/13/2015 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 917 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays* Over 7½ -138
9/13/2015 4:10 PM MLB Baseball 931 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians* Over 8½ -125 *2 UNITS*
*Probably a sucker bet on the Cards but a) doesn't look like they've been swept all season and b) are the Reds really the team to do it? St.Louis is 11-3 in Michael Wacha's road starts this season, and 5-3 in his eight lifetime starts vs the Reds (with two of the losses ending 1-0 Cincy). On the flip side, Raisel Iglesias coming off a poor start against the Pirates at home, and has already been handled by the Cards twice this season, so no reason to think it doesn't happen again. Sox/Rays should see some runs with two teams that mash lefties, Rich Hill making his first career start in forever, Drew Smyly giving up the long ball on a consistent basis, and a nice over ump in Angel Hernandez. As for Tigers/Indians, never a fan of betting Game 2 without knowing how Game 1 shakes out, but Randy Wolf starting to show why his big league career is wrapping up, Trevor Bauer with an average of 10.21 runs in his 14 starts at Progressive this season as well as 6-0 O/U vs the Tigers in his career, and the series trending over at a 20-6 clip the last 26 in Cleveland.

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Thanks inZane, Metallica and hound.
 
YTD: 68-62-4, -2.80

Monday:

9/14/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians* Over 7½ -115
9/14/2015 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Minnesota Twins* -1 -113 vs Detroit Tigers
9/14/2015 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Minnesota Twins* Over 4½ -110 vs Detroit Tigers
*That total in Cleveland is really, really suspicious given that a) the series trends over to the tune of 7-1 the L8 at Progressive and 10-3-1 the L14 Overall, b) Carlos Carrasco is 10-2 O/U at home this season, and 17-9 O/U Overall, c) both teams are coming off high scoring weekends and d) Edinson Volquez has had all sorts of issues against the Indians this season (8 H and 11 BB in 9 IP). Then again, if I were smart enough to avoid these potential trap lines, I probably wouldn't be sporting a minus sign right now... As for Tigers/Twins, Kyle Lobstein not doing himself any favours the way he's pitched since getting recalled from AAA Toledo (actually, he pitched horribly for the Mud Hens as well with a 6.62 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 17.2 IP, so at least he's being consistent), while Tyler Duffey's been solid during the Twins' stretch run.

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Adding:

9/14/2015 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 958 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ -140 vs Colorado Rockies
9/14/2015 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 958 Los Angeles Dodgers* Over 4 -120 vs Colorado Rockies
*Serious lack of clutch hitting going on in this Indians game... Anyways, I've been burnt more than once by Clayton Kershaw this season, but it's hard to pass on numbers like this: over the course of his 12 starts vs. the Rockies the past three seasons, the Dodgers have gone 11-1 on the RL, and scored 6 or more runs in all 11 of those wins. Of course, now that I've said that, he probably gets knocked out by the 3rd, but between the way that Dodgers offense has been rolling in September and the way Kershaw's been pitching since the halfway point of the season, I'll take my chances.

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Thanks Metallica.
 
YTD: 72-62-5, +1.20

Tuesday:

9/15/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 901 Washington Nationals* -1½ -150 vs Philadelphia Phillies
9/15/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 906 New York Mets* -1½ -120 vs Miami Marlins
9/15/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 919 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians* Over 7½ -115
9/15/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 929 Toronto Blue Jays/Atlanta Braves* Over 7½ -110
9/15/2015 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers/Minnesota Twins* Over 9 -115
*Every time I've gotten back up this season, I've gone right back down the next night, so buyer beware... a) two words: David. Buchanan. b) Koehler's had 4 starts against the Mets this season, 1 very good, and 3 very bad. Percentages say it's likely to be another one of those nights, especially against DeGrom who's lights out at Citi, c) series trends over and Tomlin's gotten 6+ run support his last 4 starts, d) 7.5 for the Jays is surprising, to say the least, but odds are Teheran's not keeping the Jays bats down, and Buehrle with his wonky shoulder is in for a long night if he can't spot his pitches and e) Simon 10-4 O/U on the road and Hughes 7-4 O/U at home with both having a rough go of it as of late, so expecting the scoring to continue.

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Adding:

9/15/2015 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 911 Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Dodgers* Over 3½ -135 for 1st 5 Innings
9/15/2015 10:15 PM MLB Baseball 913 Cincinnati Reds/San Francisco Giants* Over 3½ -130 for 1st 5 Innings
*Looking like 1-4 to start. Let's see if I can salvage the night...

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YTD: 75-65-6, +0.75

Wednesday:

9/16/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 951 Washington Nationals* -1½ -125 vs Philadelphia Phillies
9/16/2015 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Boston Red Sox* Over 4 -125 vs Baltimore Orioles
9/16/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians* Over 7½ -110

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Adding:

9/16/2015 10:15 PM MLB Baseball 963 Cincinnati Reds/San Francisco Giants* Over 4 -120 for 1st 5 Innings
*Michael Lorenzen rarely makes it past the 5th inning, and by then he's already given up 3 or 4 runs, so F5 seemed like the smarter way to go on this one. Same applies to Jake Peavy, so considering the kind of run support these two get in their home/away splits (Lorenzen 5.00 in 42.1 IP on the road, Peavy 5.71 in 41.2 IP at home), if it doesn't happen early, it probably won't be happening.

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YTD: 77-66-7, +1.65

Thursday:

9/17/2015 12:35 PM MLB Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs* +½ -135 vs Pittsburgh Pirates for 1st 5 Innings

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YTD: 78-66-7, +2.65

Adding:

9/17/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 909 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians* Over 6½ -140
9/17/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 911 Baltimore Orioles/Tampa Bay Rays* Over 7½ -138
9/17/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 917 Toronto Blue Jays* -1½ -135 vs Atlanta Braves

9/17/2015 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 917 Toronto Blue Jays* Over 4½ -140 vs Atlanta Braves
9/17/2015 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 913 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers* Over 9 -125
9/17/2015 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 905 St. Louis Cardinals* -142 vs Milwaukee Brewers

*More plays than I usually play, and a bit more juice than I usually pay, but it's time to start going for it... a) in keeping with what I mentioned in the discussion thread yesterday, I'll be taking every game at Progressive against the AL Central over the rest of the season (would've been nice to get a crappier pitching matchup, but the Royals have handled Kluber this season, so 3 runs a piece not that much to ask for), b) Chris Tillman's got an ERA of 11.77 and game total of 15.67 over his last three starts. Matt Moore's got an ERA of 9.95 and game total of 12.33 over his last three starts. Should finish 2-1..., c) Jays bats look like they might have woken up, so that should spell trouble for Matt Wisler who's been giving up a lot of walks and a lot of homeruns, d) don't see any reason why the bats should cool off tonight, especially with Colby Lewis sporting a nice looking 11-2 O/U mark at home this season and e) Cards look like they're out of the doldrums, so don't foresee too many problems against Jimmy Nelson who they've knocked around during his career.

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I've got a shitload of plays tonight too, hugh. Looks like we're on the same totals, but I don't get the reduced number / higher juice option, good luck.
 
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