Saturday June 1-Sunday June 30 MLB Picks

⭐️Arizona/San Dog Over 7.5-130
Seattle/Oakland Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-See writeup)

***1st Umpire over-Seattle/Oakland Over 7.5-this game features Nick Mahrley behind the plate who sees an avg 4.9 ERA in his games resulting in an average of 10.1 Runs per game, equaling out to a 8-4 record on the over. He calls 64.2% strikes, and has a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Only 4 of his 12 have gone under today's total with 2 right at 7 going like this 10, 9, 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. Interestingly, his last Oakland game saw 10 runs in the Bronx in a Boyle Vs Scmidt dual. Oakland can be a tricky stadium some days for the over as it can be a pitchers park on windy cold days. Today the weather is sunny with a 10-15 mph breeze to right with a mid 60's temp and mid 60's humidity. The ball should be flying better than last night and with some added help from Nick we might see Double digits yet again.
 
inZane said:
I don't know if they did a pitching change or not, but my line on the Yanks is currently -137.
Click to expand...

Doesnt look like a pitcher change. My guess is it could be due to an expectation that Boone rests one of the big guys (Soto, Judge, or Stanton), so some steam hit the twins as a dog. That'd be my guess, since the yanks already won this series, this game is a good game to rest one of the stars and have them for a PH situation late. If that happens, it wont deter the Yanks.
 
***2nd umpire Over is already a play above Arizona/San Dog over 7.5, this game features Erich Bacchus who is 8-3-1 to the over, averages 10.17 runs per game across 12 games going like this 9,16, 5, 9, 3, 5, 23, 11, 11, 12, 9, 9. Only 3 games out of the 12 have gone under today's total. He has a strike call ratio at about 63.3%, with a SO/K ratio of 2.54, with 2.3 Home Runs on avg in his games. Helping matters to the over is that the Zona is 4-1 to the over last 5 and San Diego is 4-1 to the over against Arizona. I have added comfort in this over with Bacchus behind home plate and may throw a bit more on it. It's a top play and I like it even more now.
 
***3rd Umpire over is Cincy/Chicago Over 9-125 with a guy we've used successfully a few times. Adrian Johnson is the HP Ump who is 8-2 to the over, posting an avg 5.5 ERA resulting in a whopping 11.4 runs per game, with a dysmal 1.88 SO/BB ratio (below is HORRIBLE for pitchers), on just a measly 62% called strikes. Only 4 have gone under tonight's total with 2 matching 1 run less at 8, with his games going 13, 8, 10, 12, 16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14. This is not just a recent thing with his, over his last 2 years is 61.8% to the over on 74 games, avg a very high 9.8 runs per game.

Some interesting data points also helping tonights over is Cubs have a OBP of .350 (961 Plate App), when facing a pitcher for the 3rd time since last season. The cubs are batting .292 in lefty-lefty matchups wince last season which is best in MLB (avg is .238), and the cubs are slugging .456 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season, 2nd best in MLB (avg in MLB is .369). Opponents of the reds have a ground ball rate of just 39% since last season, lowest in MLB (league avg is 43%) so expect outfield flyball hits and hopefully home runs with a 11-15 MPH wind over left field wall we may see more tonight. 7 of the cubs last 8 games have gone over and 4 Cincy's last 6 games have gone over the total.
 
PirateAlew said:
Really good day yesterday cashing the top 3 plays, now 3 days in a row cashed #1.
8-4 top plays/12-10 overall/700-609YTD/ (365-301 Top plays) Umpire Overs=36-12

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yanks-142
⭐️Seattle-130
⭐️Baltimore+101
⭐️KC/Clev Over 7.5-112
⭐️Cubs+114
⭐️Pirates/Doyers Over 8-130
⭐️Braves-1-130 (Full game)
Arizona+110
Cardinals-1.5-115
Boston-1.5-135
Dodgers-1-133
Guardians-140
Braves-0.5-115 (First 5 Innings)
Yankees/Twinks Over 8-115
Baltimore/Toronto Over 8-115
Click to expand...
Pirates/Dodgers.(.total 8) where
Everywhere is 9 and you favorite bookie betrivers is 9.5...or maybe is a typo mistake..
 
nolan#1 said:
Pirates/Dodgers.(.total 8) where
Everywhere is 9 and you favorite bookie betrivers is 9.5...or maybe is a typo mistake..
Click to expand...

You again with this same crap you've pulled over and over, now on multiple forums? CHECK THE TIME I POSTED. EARLY THIS MORNING at 9 am, all games were bet between 7-9 AM this morning, it's now almost 12 hours later. Lines move, most totals move a run before game. It was 8.5, bought to 8 for -130 as noted above. it's now -9 most places. that's a .5 run. Stop trolling my threads with your nonsense about lines, you've been proven wrong every damn time.

CLEARLY it shows it opened at 8.5, just like my bet shows above bought to 8. Click the link for yet again more evidence you're proven wrong for the thousandth time with this crap: MLB Betting Odds, Baseball Spreads & Lines
 
Cashed the top 2, finished 12-10 for some + for the day with the top plays. Big card again Friday.

710-617YTD/ (369-305 Top plays) Umpire Overs=37-14

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cleveland-115
⭐️Padres-117
⭐️Houston/LAA Over 8-120
⭐️Baltimore-111
⭐️Red Sox+102
⭐️Blue Jays-126
⭐️Seattle-114
⭐️Yankees+130
⭐️Texas/SF Giants Over 7.5-120
Pittsburgh+107
Texas+106
Reds-103
Angels+1.5-109
Rockies+1.5-125
Nationals+2-130
Guardians/Marlins Over 7.5-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
St Louis/Colorado Over 7.5-115
Reds/Cubs Over 8.5-120
Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5-115

Will be checking umpire assignments as i can through day, but only 2 have been announced as of yet and they are pitcher friendly.
 
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PirateAlew said:
Cashed the top 2, finished 12-10 for some + for the day with the top plays. Big card again Friday.

710-617YTD/ (369-305 Top plays) Umpire Overs=37-14

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cleveland-115
⭐️Padres-117
⭐️Houston/LAA Over 8-120
⭐️Baltimore-111
⭐️Red Sox+102
⭐️Blue Jays-126
⭐️Seattle-114
⭐️Yankees+130
⭐️Texas/SF Giants Over 7.5-120
Pittsburgh+107
Texas+106
Reds-103
Angels+1.5-109
Rockies+1.5-125
Nationals+2-130
Guardians/Marlins Over 7.5-115
St Louis/Colorado Over 7.5-115
Reds/Cubs Over 8.5-120
Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5-115

Will be checking umpire assignments as i can through day, but only 2 have been announced as of yet and they are pitcher friendly.
Click to expand...
I have 10 - 8 Yesterday checked 3 times and don't see the missing 4 plays
 
For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and all others as 1 unit.

Overall Gain Last night of .36 Units


Overall

703 - 595 -3.41 Units
 
***1st Umpire Over-Cleveland/Miami over 7.5--This game has an umpire we've used before Nate Tomlinson-This guy is a notorious hitter friendly ump, his 11 games this year are averaging nearly 9 runs per game (avg has come down tnx to last 2 games combining for 7 runs), on nearly 7 walks a game, with a 2.6 SO/K ratio, and 63% called strikes, and 6-5 to the over. In 2023 his 35 games averaged 11.20 runs per game resulting in 24-10 to the over on 63% called strikes as well. Tomlinson will surely help tonight aiding both teams but Cleveland should be able to score plenty tonight as they are best in MLB with a .886 OPS with RISP. Both teams have been opening up late in terms of scoring with Cleveland one of the best in MLB avg 5.1 runs per game while Marlins average 3.9, while allowing a very high 5.1. Nate sure will only help matters hopefully with more walks resulting in more hittable pitches tonight as the pitchers adjust to a tight Strike Zone.
 
***2nd Umpire Over-LA Doyers/Yankees Over 8.5-125--Not only we do have 2 of the best lineups in MLB with the Yankees being the hottest- but we also have one of the more hitter friendly umps in the game, Todd Tichenor, who is the rated the 4th most hitter friendly umpire in the extreme category. This year, he's 7-4 to the over, averaging 9.23 runs per game, on 64% called striked. Only 4 have gone under today's total at 9, 6, 13, 11, 10, 13, 7, 16, 5, 7, 10. Over his last 2 years or 66 games, 52.4% of his games have gone over, averaging 9.5 runs per game in that time. The ERA for his games is 4.9 (awful for pitching). The over has hit in 6 of the yanks last 7 games and with a gentle 10 mph wind out to the short porch in Right Field, we might see some long balls tonight. I'll play this over with a bit more confidence the umpire will not be a hindrance to the hitters.
 
Looks like the umpire Assignment changed in Miami. It is now Larry Vanover, who rates as an extremely hitter friendly Ump and averaging nearly 10 runs per game, with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 64% called strikes. Last year across 12 games, his games went 9-3 to the over with over 11.6 runs on avg per game. He might be a bit better than the other guy. Umpire assignments rarely change, not as often as pitchers.
 
***3rd Umpire Over-Seattle/KC Over 8.5-130--With Dan Bellino-who is 6-5 to the over this year on a whopping 10 runs avg in those 11, with a 2.61 SO/BB ratio calling 63% strikes. His games have gone 4, 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. Over his last 2 years, 61.6% of 77 games have gone over averaging 9.8 runs on a 2.5 SO/BB ratio in that time. Added to this, the last 6 games played in KC between these 2 teams have gone over, and 6 of KC's last 7 games at home. Wind is blowing out 11-15 MPH to left and with some added umpire help, we may see this total early.
 
Texas game intrigues me. Line is slight dog but Lorenzen has historically pitched terrible against SF. Guess that is why that one has me scratching my head.
He could hit that over himself.
 
FYI-Bruce Dreckman, the most hitter friendly ump in the game is umpiring the Detroit game. he averages 12.6 runs in his game and is 10-2 to the over. I have the total hitting just close to the number, due to the pitching and stadium with weather expected. No play as of now but If anyone was curious why I didn't take him yet
 
PirateAlew said:
***3rd Umpire Over-Seattle/KC Over 8.5-130--With Dan Bellino-who is 6-5 to the over this year on a whopping 10 runs avg in those 11, with a 2.61 SO/BB ratio calling 63% strikes. His games have gone 4, 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. Over his last 2 years, 61.6% of 77 games have gone over averaging 9.8 runs on a 2.5 SO/BB ratio in that time. Added to this, the last 6 games played in KC between these 2 teams have gone over, and 6 of KC's last 7 games at home. Wind is blowing out 11-15 MPH to left and with some added umpire help, we may see this total early.
Click to expand...

This total is a top play.
 
Well, that seattle over was easy enough. wish the rest were. Another rare under play

adding:
Dbags/Padres UNDER 7.5-130
 
Missed all the shenanigans late night dealing with a health issue for wife at ER but come back to see it was a weird Friday, Mariners blow a 7-0 lead, Blow Jays blow it in the 9th and guardians blow it late, at, least the Padres and Baltimore took care of biz, but pushed the big total on Angels over. Just didnt get the breaks Friday. First down day this week. Start a new streak this weekend hopefully.

Back in a few hours for saturday's games.
 
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Saturday...

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Twinks-117-L
⭐️Baltimore-130-W
⭐️Reds-113-W
⭐️Seattle/KC Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup)-W
⭐️Phillies-149-W
⭐️Braves-125-L
⭐️Boston/Chicago Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)-L
⭐️Toronto-1-120-W
⭐️Cleveland-148-W
⭐️Cardinals-1-120-L-W
⭐️Yanks/Dodgers Over 8.5-125-W
⭐️Angels+140-L
Cleveland-148
Texas-120
Red Sox-1.5-128
Seattle-128
Tigers+150
Twinks/Pirates Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Phillies/Mets Over 9.5-125 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Oakland/Toronto Over 7.5-120
Baltimore/Tampa Over 7.5-120
Clev/Miami Over 7.5-130

Turns out I should have played the det/Mil over yesterday with Dreckman. Brewers got the over themselves. 1-2 Fri/38-16 umpire overs

***First Umpire Over is Seattle/KC Over 8---with Phil Cuzzi who rates as an extreme hitters friendly ump, posts an avg very high 4.7 ERA in his games, 7-2 to the over with 10.2 Runs per game, with only 3 games going under todays total with is games going 9, 11, 7, 18, 15, 7, 9, 3, 14, 9, 10. He calls about 64% strrikes and has a 2.59 SO/BB Ratio. These 2 combined for 19 runs last night, continuing the trend of 5 straight games between KC/SEA in KC have gone over, and the longer trend of 10 out of their last 13 games btw the 2 have gone over, as well as KC has seen 5 of its last 7 go over. I think it continues today with some help from Cuzzi.

***2nd Umpire Over is Twinks/Pirates Over 8.5 with Carlos Torres who has long rated as an extreme hitters friendly ump as he calls 62.9% strikes, and sees his games average 9.1 runs this yr in 12 games. The ERA for his games this yr is a 4.5. He has a long history of being hitter friendly as in his last 5 years or 147 games, he has seen 57% go over, on 9.8 average runs a game over that long time with just 63% called strikes.

***3rd Umpire Over is Phils/Mets Over 9.5---this game features another hitter friendly Ump in Mike Muchlinksi who averages 10.6 runs per game, on 64% called strikes, with a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, he's seen his games go 7, 11, 19, 6, 8, 3, 20, 7, 12, 16, 8. His love of hitters and high scoring games goes back a while as in 2023 across 32 games his games avg 10.03 runs per game, 18-13 to the over, and over the last 3 hitters, he has a 52-44 record to the over for 54.2% on 9.6 runs per game. This game is also in London where the ball flies, and the park is much smaller than normal. Helping matters with the ump and the pitching matchup, The last 4 games in London all cleared this total, 30 runs, 20 runs, 10 runs and 12.
 
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thanks G, hope we cash 'em.

***4th Umpire Over is a play above-Baltimore/Tampa Over 7.5---this game has Derek Thomas who is umping this game and across 8 games this year has an average of 10.5 runs per game, on a measly 61.6%,called strike, on 9.13 Walks issued per game, with a record of 6-2 to the over this year. Only 2 games have gone under the posted 7.5 today with his games going 12, 7, 13, 2, 15, 13, 11, 11. I like this over a bit more with Thomas umping this game.
 
More hitter friendly umps today...

***5th Umpire Over---Rocks/Cards Over 8-125--with Edwin Moscoso as the ump behind home plate, who has a 7-4 Over record this year on 9.33 runs, with a measly 62.85% called strikes. He's continuing his trend as last year he was 23-10 to the over on 10.12 runs per game. His games this year have gone 13, 11, 12, 5, 9, 9, 5, 5, 9, 7, 17. These teams combined for 13 runs last night with evem with a shutdown ace like Gray on the mound. I have this game at 9 runs and with some help from Ed we might see the same like last night. He's rated the 2nd most hitter friendly ump in the MLB with a score of 4.34.

***6th Umpire Over--Boston/Chicago over 8.5 (Played above)--this game has Alan Porter behind the plate, he's rated a middle hitter friendly ump at 4.28, a few slots below Edwin above, but while his games this year average 8.6 runs per game, he's calling a low 64% srtrikes with a 2.19 SO/BB Ratio. He's had a few big high scoring games this year like 15, 10, 23 but he's worked more pitcher duals this year so far. Last 2 years across 72 games, he's 42-28 to the over for 60%, and averages 9.4 runs per game over this span. He's steady at 63.9% called strikes over this span as well. Firsr game we saw 16 runs, and last night 9, both over today's total and i have this around 10 runs, but factoring in the ump assignment could lend us more runs like game 1. The over has cashed in 6 of Boston's last 7 games and 5 of white sox last 5 have cashed the over. The red sox are avg 1.07 runs more on the road than at home and with White sox abysmal pitching, they surely will allow their average 5.3 runs, while red sox are avg 5.1 runs scored per game. We may see double digits easily today.
 
Cashed 2 umpire overs with the biggest one mariners cashing easy, lost phils by a run. Need a few more in boston game and some help in Pitts and baltimore late.

Liked this over all day, just the umpire isn't that hitter friendly in this one to help unfortunately in SD.

adding:

Arizona/San Dog Over 7.5-115
 
thankfully cashed most of the top plays, esp the top 5. Lost twins but won 4 out of top 5 so walked away happy, 7-6 Top plays, 2-4 umpire overs, but at least hit the big one with Mariners over. Better the smaller plays lose.

Early play today with Phils (not the #1 pick). It is a top play, will have final order up with full card in a few hours but starting with this one

⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Phillies/Mutts Over 10.5-120
 
Let's win some more Sunday.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Baltimore-128
⭐️Royals-112
⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Cubs-120 (F5 ML)
⭐️Cleveland-105
⭐️Braves/Nats Over 9-120 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Astros-146
⭐️Rockies/Cards Over 8-120
⭐️Yankees+110
⭐️Texas-150
⭐️Phils/Mutts Over 10.5-120
️⭐Red Sox-1-120
⭐Padres-129
Cardinals-1-118
Tigers-1-110
Pittsburgh+100
Braves-1-125
Cleveland/Miami Over 8-125
Seattle/KC Over 7-135 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
Oakland+112
Houston/LAA Over 8-120
Cubs/Reds Over 8.5-120
Minn/Pitt Over 7.5-120


***First Umpire Over is Bravos/Nats Over 9 with one of my favorite hitter friendly umps, Andy Fletcher. He is a a whopping 83.3% to the over with a 10-2-1 to the over record in 13 games on an astounding 12.3 runs per game, and a whopping almost 9 walks per game, with a terrible 1.89 SO/BB ratio, on an extremely low 61.7% called strikes (63-65% is more hitter friendly, even less is much better for hitter). The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.7 ERA.
Only 2 of his games have gone under the total hitting 8 or one less, going 10, 10, 14, 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. With 2 rookie pitchers called up from triple A, and a veteran star laden lineup like Atlanta going against Herz with a 9 ERA, I expect runs from Altanta and also washington who is also starting a call-up. In one MLB game for Wash starter Herz he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings to a weak Mets offense. With Andy squeezing these rookies on the corners and the plate, I expect both teams to pack in some runs, unless they are hung over from partying in Foggy Bottom DC last night.

***2nd Umpire Over is Seattle/KC Over 7-with Tony Randazzo who has a long history of being a hitter friendly ump going back years (in 2021 in 59 games he posted an avg 11.08 Runs per game. He is 7-5 to the over this year but averages a high almost 10 runs per game, with a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, with nearly 8 walks a game, and 63% called strikes. The ERA for his games is also very high at 4.8. His games have gone 11, 14, 14, 4, 8, 4, 6, 11, 17, 7, 9, 13. Only 3 have gone under today's total with 1 pushing. These 2 teams have been slugging it out last 2 games combining for 31 runs in 2 games, both games going well past the overs even with solid pitchers on the mound. I like this to continue especially with Randazzo helping matters behind home plate. Interestingly through his whole career as an ump he is calling about 12% fewer strikeouts than average peer umpires, and about 12% more walks issued.
 
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For transparency reasons plays with a star are graded as 2 units and all others as 1 unit.

Overall Gain Last night +4.23 Units


Overall

724 - 621 -11.20 Units
 
***3rd Umpire Over-Cleveland/Miami over 8 (Played above)--This game has an umpire we've used before Nate Tomlinson (he was scratched in game 1)-This guy is a notorious hitter friendly ump, his 11 games this year are averaging nearly 9 runs per game (avg has come down tnx to last 2 games combining for 7 runs), on nearly 7 walks a game, with a 2.6 SO/K ratio, and 63% called strikes, and 6-5 to the over. In 2023 his 35 games averaged 11.20 runs per game resulting in 24-10 to the over on 63% called strikes as well. Tomlinson will surely help tonight aiding both teams but Cleveland should be able to score plenty tonight as they are best in MLB with a .886 OPS with RISP. Both teams have been opening up late in terms of scoring with Cleveland one of the best in MLB avg 5.1 runs per game while Marlins average 3.9, while allowing a very high 5.1. Nate sure will only help matters hopefully with more walks resulting in more hittable pitches tonight as the pitchers adjust to a tight Strike Zone.
 
***4th Umpire Over is Milwaukee/Detroit Over 7.5-125--This game features Clint Vondrak who is calling just over 63% strikes, with a SO/BB Ratio of 2.33, on 10.08 runs per game. Interestingly, his last game in Detroit was with KC and that netted 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 in his last 6 games going 16, 9, 7, 13, 16, 13, 8, 15, 3, 3, 13, 5. The over has hit in the last 5 Detroit home games and 4 of the last 6 between these two in Detroit. With Clint helping matters, I see the over trend continuing.

⭐️Milwaukee/Detroit Over 7.5-125
 
Cashed 2 umpire overs, now hope to get some late help in the other 2.

adding:
Oak/Toronto Over 7.5-120

^The Above qualifies as a umpire over with Brian Knight as he is rated as a medium Hitter friendly ump with a 4.28 on a scale up to 4.37. His metrics qualify as he is avg more runs than normal 8.8, on a very low 1.89 SO/BB ratio and 63.5% strikes. His games have gone 13, 9, 12, 15, 4, 6, 5, 7, 9, 8, 9. I'll have some added assurance with brian behind the plate.
 
3-0 Umpire overs now, need some help late in seattle. Now 10-1 today, huge huge day. assuming orioles hold on up 9-2 in 8th. i cashed out this inning minus a few pennies. Hope these afternoon games are as good.
 
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