PirateAlew
Dean Smith Disciple
Duly noted. Today was the first time i saw your record anywhere or any mention of bets posted as i never saw before so I will keep a look out.
Anyway, good to get to the tigers over, congrats if you had tampa ML, I got my push on -1 and wait for cubs to cash to finish off a 2 leg, and good clev came through as Detroit blew up late. A splittsville afternoon with a few spare bucks.
Adding:
Arizona+140
Miami/Chicago Over 7.5-115
***SF/Arizona Over above is a top play. Notated above
Brief analysis of the big dog on Arizona--Giants had to fly back from Miami on a long trip back to SFO (6-8 hours depending on winds and no flight delays) while Zona just had the 2 hour or so flt from Phx (fading teams returning home after long trips has been + over the years). Going with the better offensive team Dbacks which ranks better in all the key categories-- 6th in OBP (.334), 8th in HR (22), 8th in OPS (.740) and 5th in RBI (97) vs a Giants team noticeably worse in all categories above, ranking 14th in OBP (.315), 18th in HR (17), 16th in OPS (.696), and 17th in RBI (74). Yes, Webb is a serviceable starter in the rotation and has had shut-down stuff at times, but last year fell short of expecations at 11-13 ith a 3.25 era in 33 games pitched last year. Over his career against Dbacks, Webb is 4-3 with a 2.8 era over 10 starts, and last year pitched against 4 times holding them to 10 runs scored across 27 innings, while in the other dugout,, Nelson pitched against the Giants 3 times last year with a 3.44 era, notable from his games against Giants in 2023 is that he gave up 4 in 1st game against SF, but held the giants to less than 3 total runs over 2 more games that spanned 13.2 IP. I believe he learned the gameplan of how to attack Giants hitters last year and albeit a few new faces, will be aggressive around the plate against a weaker offensive team.
I believe the dbacks will look to jump out early on a tired team, get some run support and win this game in a 6-4 type game. Now watch Webb show me up and throw a no-no.
A little more about the over-Dbacks style is aggressive hitting and base-running. For those who follow this sort of thing, Mark Carlson will be the ump behind home-plate, a generous ump to the hitters. All 4 games he has officated this year have gone over, with an avg of 12.8 runs per game, 63.5% strikes, 15.8 SOPG, While over a longer term of last 2 years spanning 64 games, 54% of his games go over, avg a healthy 9.5 runs per game, and holding steady at less than 64% SOPG. I have this game pegged around 10-11 runs, and having a hitter friendly up helps things in most cases.
Anyway, good to get to the tigers over, congrats if you had tampa ML, I got my push on -1 and wait for cubs to cash to finish off a 2 leg, and good clev came through as Detroit blew up late. A splittsville afternoon with a few spare bucks.
Adding:
Arizona+140
Miami/Chicago Over 7.5-115
***SF/Arizona Over above is a top play. Notated above
Brief analysis of the big dog on Arizona--Giants had to fly back from Miami on a long trip back to SFO (6-8 hours depending on winds and no flight delays) while Zona just had the 2 hour or so flt from Phx (fading teams returning home after long trips has been + over the years). Going with the better offensive team Dbacks which ranks better in all the key categories-- 6th in OBP (.334), 8th in HR (22), 8th in OPS (.740) and 5th in RBI (97) vs a Giants team noticeably worse in all categories above, ranking 14th in OBP (.315), 18th in HR (17), 16th in OPS (.696), and 17th in RBI (74). Yes, Webb is a serviceable starter in the rotation and has had shut-down stuff at times, but last year fell short of expecations at 11-13 ith a 3.25 era in 33 games pitched last year. Over his career against Dbacks, Webb is 4-3 with a 2.8 era over 10 starts, and last year pitched against 4 times holding them to 10 runs scored across 27 innings, while in the other dugout,, Nelson pitched against the Giants 3 times last year with a 3.44 era, notable from his games against Giants in 2023 is that he gave up 4 in 1st game against SF, but held the giants to less than 3 total runs over 2 more games that spanned 13.2 IP. I believe he learned the gameplan of how to attack Giants hitters last year and albeit a few new faces, will be aggressive around the plate against a weaker offensive team.
I believe the dbacks will look to jump out early on a tired team, get some run support and win this game in a 6-4 type game. Now watch Webb show me up and throw a no-no.
A little more about the over-Dbacks style is aggressive hitting and base-running. For those who follow this sort of thing, Mark Carlson will be the ump behind home-plate, a generous ump to the hitters. All 4 games he has officated this year have gone over, with an avg of 12.8 runs per game, 63.5% strikes, 15.8 SOPG, While over a longer term of last 2 years spanning 64 games, 54% of his games go over, avg a healthy 9.5 runs per game, and holding steady at less than 64% SOPG. I have this game pegged around 10-11 runs, and having a hitter friendly up helps things in most cases.
Last edited:
️Cubs-1-120
