Saratoga 7/22-9/5
- Thread starter Play2win
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R8 #4 is the "sneaky" horse of the day....dirt form so likely entered turf stakes knowing weather especially since this trainer spots them well at the Spa, 3 for 9 during 2014 and '15 meets and first runner this meet, could be the speed and that's been a great thing the last two days
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
[h=3]Cupid, Mo Tom part of full field in West Virginia Derby[/h]
An overflow field of 13 3-year-olds was entered Monday for the Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby on Saturday at Mountaineer.The 1 1/8-mile West Virginia Derby is limited to 12 starters, and Fort Pulaski is the lone also-eligible. From the rail out, the main body of the field includes Cupid, No Distortion, Mo Tom, Pinson, Whateverybodywants, Name Changer, Van Damme, Adventist, Economic Model, Anaximandros, Forevamo, and Suddenbreakingnews
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Good start to the meet so I'll probably go to the track tomorrow and it seems like a good betting card with wide open races.
R1 (Jumps):
#1 great jump trainer, jockey 7-2-2-0 @ Spa '15
#1A better part of entry, won last by 9 3/4 lengths 1st time w/ blinkers...trainer was in the $ 62% during spa '14 and '15 meets...gets top Irish jump jockey that was 4 for 8 in his U.S. rides last year
#2 trainer is 1 for 39 this year but had a 8-3-1-0 Spa record last year...won last year jumping at Spa coming out of a 1 1/2 mile turf flat race at Parx, same move here
#3 two back was 3rd to good jumpers Maserati and Scorpiancer both will run in Thurs Stakes...2nd off layoff and going flats to jumps and he's won on that move before...jockey 1 for 33 this year but 3 for 6 at Spa last year
#4 trainer is 1 for 35 at Spa since 2012
#5 if you throw out his G3 try he's been 1st or 2nd in all his U.S. jump races...jockey is from U.K. and has 195 wins jumping over the last 5 years
#6 goes for top jump trainer, has kept good company in all 3 races this year...his good flat racing form could give him an advantage given new jump course configuration (1 less jump, no jump in stretch last lap)
#8 last was a prep over flats off layoff for this...great trainer and jockey and the combo is 16 for last 34 47% $5.55 ROI...two back (last time jumping) was much the best 5 3/4 length winner
I'll be looking for an overlay so odds will dictate what I do but my contenders in no special order are 1A, 5,6,8
R1 (Jumps):
#1 great jump trainer, jockey 7-2-2-0 @ Spa '15
#1A better part of entry, won last by 9 3/4 lengths 1st time w/ blinkers...trainer was in the $ 62% during spa '14 and '15 meets...gets top Irish jump jockey that was 4 for 8 in his U.S. rides last year
#2 trainer is 1 for 39 this year but had a 8-3-1-0 Spa record last year...won last year jumping at Spa coming out of a 1 1/2 mile turf flat race at Parx, same move here
#3 two back was 3rd to good jumpers Maserati and Scorpiancer both will run in Thurs Stakes...2nd off layoff and going flats to jumps and he's won on that move before...jockey 1 for 33 this year but 3 for 6 at Spa last year
#4 trainer is 1 for 35 at Spa since 2012
#5 if you throw out his G3 try he's been 1st or 2nd in all his U.S. jump races...jockey is from U.K. and has 195 wins jumping over the last 5 years
#6 goes for top jump trainer, has kept good company in all 3 races this year...his good flat racing form could give him an advantage given new jump course configuration (1 less jump, no jump in stretch last lap)
#8 last was a prep over flats off layoff for this...great trainer and jockey and the combo is 16 for last 34 47% $5.55 ROI...two back (last time jumping) was much the best 5 3/4 length winner
I'll be looking for an overlay so odds will dictate what I do but my contenders in no special order are 1A, 5,6,8
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R2:
#1 is off layoff but has been training great over Spa training track and main track, exits key race and attracts Irad
#1A broke from rail as 1ster for trainer not known to have them cranked up first out, was green and had troubled trip but could improve 2nd out
#5 cuts back in distance and drops in class off layoff for trainer that does good at this meet
#8 gets Javy here and race two back was a key race...trainer 0 for 11 Spa '15 and 1 for 32 '14-'16 Spa
1,5,8 are logical contenders but I want to gimmick #4 into some exotics
#4 (30-1 ml) has dummy form....last out was turf, two back was a route, three back was vs much better, four back turf, five back was vs boys....NO world beaters in here, why not
#1 is off layoff but has been training great over Spa training track and main track, exits key race and attracts Irad
#1A broke from rail as 1ster for trainer not known to have them cranked up first out, was green and had troubled trip but could improve 2nd out
#5 cuts back in distance and drops in class off layoff for trainer that does good at this meet
#8 gets Javy here and race two back was a key race...trainer 0 for 11 Spa '15 and 1 for 32 '14-'16 Spa
1,5,8 are logical contenders but I want to gimmick #4 into some exotics
#4 (30-1 ml) has dummy form....last out was turf, two back was a route, three back was vs much better, four back turf, five back was vs boys....NO world beaters in here, why not
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R3 appears to have a lot of early speeds with possibly #1,2,3,4,7 being involved early possibly setting it up for someone off the pace...
#5 projects to get a great pace setup, goes turf to dirt for trainer that has 7 wins at meet already...last dirt race, two back beat a horse that came back to win her next start
#4 looks like the speed of the speeds and goes off the claim for Gullo who is 18-7-4-2 $4.58 ROI off the claim over the last 6 months
#7 is also Gullo, goes turf to dirt 2nd off claim after just missing by a nose at 50-1 on opening day, two back ran against bias (R-)
#5 projects to get a great pace setup, goes turf to dirt for trainer that has 7 wins at meet already...last dirt race, two back beat a horse that came back to win her next start
#4 looks like the speed of the speeds and goes off the claim for Gullo who is 18-7-4-2 $4.58 ROI off the claim over the last 6 months
#7 is also Gullo, goes turf to dirt 2nd off claim after just missing by a nose at 50-1 on opening day, two back ran against bias (R-)
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R4, IF TURF:
#1 is a contender but I don't like how she gave up the lead in her last two after leading every step of the way to get beat a neck and a head...also the winners of last two had to cover a lot more ground: Trakus has 19 more feet winner of last and 33 more feet winner two back...#1 is speed but may have to deal with #7 early and possibly #2 who removes blinkers
#3 goes 1st out for legendary trainer that can have them ready to go two turns in their debut...attracts Irad
#4 will be 1st turf route with blinkers, was last a prep?
#5 1ster for sharp outfit
#8 is my top pick, debut last year at Spa with tough post and trip considering dynamics...1st and 2nd place finishers were speeds and Moonshine Cate had to make up 14 lengths,...then last was off layoff, squeezed start and was last at top of stretch, nice late closing kick....after watching gallop out of her two races I really think she'll enjoy the extra ground...Lerman 3 for 16 19% @ Spa '14 and '15 meets...trainer/jockey combo popped last meet
#10 (20-1 ml) maybe I'm way off but I won't be surprised if she's around the number, last out 2nd vs wire to wire winner...two back 10 post vs 1st and 2nd place finishers that had the jump and better position and she had a good gallop out in that race
#1 is a contender but I don't like how she gave up the lead in her last two after leading every step of the way to get beat a neck and a head...also the winners of last two had to cover a lot more ground: Trakus has 19 more feet winner of last and 33 more feet winner two back...#1 is speed but may have to deal with #7 early and possibly #2 who removes blinkers
#3 goes 1st out for legendary trainer that can have them ready to go two turns in their debut...attracts Irad
#4 will be 1st turf route with blinkers, was last a prep?
#5 1ster for sharp outfit
#8 is my top pick, debut last year at Spa with tough post and trip considering dynamics...1st and 2nd place finishers were speeds and Moonshine Cate had to make up 14 lengths,...then last was off layoff, squeezed start and was last at top of stretch, nice late closing kick....after watching gallop out of her two races I really think she'll enjoy the extra ground...Lerman 3 for 16 19% @ Spa '14 and '15 meets...trainer/jockey combo popped last meet
#10 (20-1 ml) maybe I'm way off but I won't be surprised if she's around the number, last out 2nd vs wire to wire winner...two back 10 post vs 1st and 2nd place finishers that had the jump and better position and she had a good gallop out in that race
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R5, IF TURF:
#5 at 20-1 ml could be tremendous value...just looking at his turf sprint races was beaten a nose going 6F at Bel and in his debut won a 5f turf sprint at Gulfstream Park beating Doctor J Dub who is a 5 time turf sprint winner and winner of a 75K turf sprint stakes.
#10 last race was 1M on synthetic and is a throw out race but Motion has great Synthetic to turf numbers and is 4 for 9 at current meet...two back was 1st time for Motion and was off layoff after Euro ship...it was a synthetic sprint which sometimes converts over when going on to turf but made a nice run into a wire to wire winner and 3rd place finisher sat 2nd so it's not like the race collapsed and also had a strong gallop out....looking at those turf sprints in GB...Powerallied who beat him four back has run 1st,2nd,3rd in three handicap races this year and six back winner Birchwood has been running in Group 2 and 3 this year and 3rd place finisher Eltezam has been running in Group 2's...and Harvard Man was fav vs those two
#3 is first time vs winners but maybe was meant to be a turf sprinter after last race...ran career best race 1st time turf sprinting winning at over 40-1 but caught 3/5 speed horse and looked good doing so covering the most ground...Trakus: 2nd and 3rd finishers ran 29 less feet and 4th place finisher 23 less feet, that sounds like a lot in a 6F race...Domino is 6 for his last 15 with turf sprinters
#1 his last race was 1 1/16 on turf and now cuts back to 5.5f on turf, two and three back were turf sprints and make him a player...three back was off layoff and was up on pace when other speeds gave way late but he fought on
#5 at 20-1 ml could be tremendous value...just looking at his turf sprint races was beaten a nose going 6F at Bel and in his debut won a 5f turf sprint at Gulfstream Park beating Doctor J Dub who is a 5 time turf sprint winner and winner of a 75K turf sprint stakes.
#10 last race was 1M on synthetic and is a throw out race but Motion has great Synthetic to turf numbers and is 4 for 9 at current meet...two back was 1st time for Motion and was off layoff after Euro ship...it was a synthetic sprint which sometimes converts over when going on to turf but made a nice run into a wire to wire winner and 3rd place finisher sat 2nd so it's not like the race collapsed and also had a strong gallop out....looking at those turf sprints in GB...Powerallied who beat him four back has run 1st,2nd,3rd in three handicap races this year and six back winner Birchwood has been running in Group 2 and 3 this year and 3rd place finisher Eltezam has been running in Group 2's...and Harvard Man was fav vs those two
#3 is first time vs winners but maybe was meant to be a turf sprinter after last race...ran career best race 1st time turf sprinting winning at over 40-1 but caught 3/5 speed horse and looked good doing so covering the most ground...Trakus: 2nd and 3rd finishers ran 29 less feet and 4th place finisher 23 less feet, that sounds like a lot in a 6F race...Domino is 6 for his last 15 with turf sprinters
#1 his last race was 1 1/16 on turf and now cuts back to 5.5f on turf, two and three back were turf sprints and make him a player...three back was off layoff and was up on pace when other speeds gave way late but he fought on
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R6 looks like a ton of early speeds
No special order...
#1 drops in class and cuts back in distance for Jacobson who's off to a great start for the meet and attracts Irad...serious class relief when you consider that he just ran with AP Indian two back and Joking three back
#2 2nd off layoff, back to Jose Ortiz who won on him 2 and 3 back...2-1-1-0 @ Spa and 6-5-1-0 at the distance but the rail in dirt sprints has not been the place to be
#5 is a big time horse for course 4-3-1-0 at the Spa...his last was on Synthetic at Woodbine, 3rd place finisher came back to win $150K stakes (95 Beyer)....Waco has run huge races at the Spa 98 (career best),91,88,88 Beyer's...not concerned with poor recent form because he only runs his races here...big class drop
#6 should get good pace setup and won at Spa last year, goes 2nd off layoff after winning at Flakes
#7 drops in for barn that's runners have been sharp to start the meet...won last with Rosario and he returns
#9 is Dubb/Rudy/Javy at a price so I may have to use...adds blinkers
#10 cuts back in distance after showing speed going 1 1/16 off the claim
No special order...
#1 drops in class and cuts back in distance for Jacobson who's off to a great start for the meet and attracts Irad...serious class relief when you consider that he just ran with AP Indian two back and Joking three back
#2 2nd off layoff, back to Jose Ortiz who won on him 2 and 3 back...2-1-1-0 @ Spa and 6-5-1-0 at the distance but the rail in dirt sprints has not been the place to be
#5 is a big time horse for course 4-3-1-0 at the Spa...his last was on Synthetic at Woodbine, 3rd place finisher came back to win $150K stakes (95 Beyer)....Waco has run huge races at the Spa 98 (career best),91,88,88 Beyer's...not concerned with poor recent form because he only runs his races here...big class drop
#6 should get good pace setup and won at Spa last year, goes 2nd off layoff after winning at Flakes
#7 drops in for barn that's runners have been sharp to start the meet...won last with Rosario and he returns
#9 is Dubb/Rudy/Javy at a price so I may have to use...adds blinkers
#10 cuts back in distance after showing speed going 1 1/16 off the claim
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R7, IF TURF:
#2 looking three back at Spa race last year was shuffled at start and closed into a race that didn't collapse, winner sat behind duel and 3rd place finisher was the speed...then next out off layoff beaten a neck...then in last off shorter layoff appeared to not like running on the inside and will have to run on inside today...is a contender but I don't like 1 win, 4 minor slices from 9 starts
#3 looks like main speed, caught going 6F at Belmont in her last...only other turf sprint was last year at Spa vs Colts when beaten by Too Discreet who's 3 for 5 and a multiple stakes winner and 3 for 3 turf sprinting...great work on Oklahoma turf 7/29, fastest work of 41 at that distance
#6 gets huge class relief and exits a key race, race two back makes him super tough here
#7 could be the overlay here and definitely fits, Irad at a price
#8 fits but 1 for 17 life
#11 could be part of pace...if not moves up #3 chances
#2 looking three back at Spa race last year was shuffled at start and closed into a race that didn't collapse, winner sat behind duel and 3rd place finisher was the speed...then next out off layoff beaten a neck...then in last off shorter layoff appeared to not like running on the inside and will have to run on inside today...is a contender but I don't like 1 win, 4 minor slices from 9 starts
#3 looks like main speed, caught going 6F at Belmont in her last...only other turf sprint was last year at Spa vs Colts when beaten by Too Discreet who's 3 for 5 and a multiple stakes winner and 3 for 3 turf sprinting...great work on Oklahoma turf 7/29, fastest work of 41 at that distance
#6 gets huge class relief and exits a key race, race two back makes him super tough here
#7 could be the overlay here and definitely fits, Irad at a price
#8 fits but 1 for 17 life
#11 could be part of pace...if not moves up #3 chances
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R8:
BC F&M Sprint defending champ is in here (#3) and she could win here since race dynamics should play into her favor as 4,5,6,7 all appear to be early speeds....but I'm looking at...
#2 (12-1 ml) off layoff, cuts back in distance for first start in U.S. after running in Chile...I think she classes up here...The Dream (9-5-2-0 record) shows up in her running lines, her connections felt good enough about her to run her in Hirsch vs Stellar Wind and Beholder....trainer/Jockey combo 5 for last 11 and have popped at prices
#1 is off a long layoff but that's a good trainer angle for Clement...cuts back in distance, drops in class and adds Javy...has a 2nd place finish at Spa going this distance vs Divided Attention
#4 is a contender but trainer is 1 for 17 @ Spa 2012-present
BC F&M Sprint defending champ is in here (#3) and she could win here since race dynamics should play into her favor as 4,5,6,7 all appear to be early speeds....but I'm looking at...
#2 (12-1 ml) off layoff, cuts back in distance for first start in U.S. after running in Chile...I think she classes up here...The Dream (9-5-2-0 record) shows up in her running lines, her connections felt good enough about her to run her in Hirsch vs Stellar Wind and Beholder....trainer/Jockey combo 5 for last 11 and have popped at prices
#1 is off a long layoff but that's a good trainer angle for Clement...cuts back in distance, drops in class and adds Javy...has a 2nd place finish at Spa going this distance vs Divided Attention
#4 is a contender but trainer is 1 for 17 @ Spa 2012-present
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R9, IF TURF
#2 and #11 will be popular here
#2 ran 2nd last out breaking from 10 post in her first start of the year....two back had troubled trip over this course...problem is beaten fav last 3 starts
#4 (20-1 ml ) is a bomb I want to mix in some how, when shifted from Mott three back had tough trip going shorter....has run well in those 3 starts out of Mott barn and has back races to at least consider her imo
#11 poor post, beaten fav 3x but nonetheless still a contender
#12 when switched to turf routes went 2 for 2 then 10 post in last and still only beaten 1 3/4 lengths...poor post here again but contender and better value than #2 or #11 even though she did have a good pace setup in her win two back
#10 her two turf races give her a chance
#2 and #11 will be popular here
#2 ran 2nd last out breaking from 10 post in her first start of the year....two back had troubled trip over this course...problem is beaten fav last 3 starts
#4 (20-1 ml ) is a bomb I want to mix in some how, when shifted from Mott three back had tough trip going shorter....has run well in those 3 starts out of Mott barn and has back races to at least consider her imo
#11 poor post, beaten fav 3x but nonetheless still a contender
#12 when switched to turf routes went 2 for 2 then 10 post in last and still only beaten 1 3/4 lengths...poor post here again but contender and better value than #2 or #11 even though she did have a good pace setup in her win two back
#10 her two turf races give her a chance
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
[FONT="]David Grening @DRFGrening[/FONT]
[FONT="]ON the turf today at Saratoga. Courses listed "good."[/FONT]
[FONT="]ON the turf today at Saratoga. Courses listed "good."[/FONT]
Nugzz
Tritty f'n Bunk
Losing the 3 in race one hurts the price
Nugzz
Tritty f'n Bunk
He effed me hardcore
Nugzz
Tritty f'n Bunk
Value right out the door
