Monday's card looks filled with vulnerable favorites.
Race 1 - Looks like a clear two horse race, with the #2 part of the forward group and the #1 trying to run him down late.
Race 2 - #8 favored despite a series of so-so efforts at the N2L level, although with another class drop today he might finally fit He did break his maiden at a higher level than all but one of these. #2 and #6 are both fast early, but the former has failed by >5 lengths at this level twice already and the latter is coming back from 11 months off, although the trainer is at 23% with long layoffs. #1 (SCR) might be the fastest at this distance but has been off for 2 years, although he's the other horse that won at the straight maiden level. #3 has had 1 good effort in 12 starts that could fit here, but comes out of the sharp work. #7 hasn't come within 7 points of par in his 11 career starts, which in a sprint is a toss for me. The two that seem most logical to me are #4 (SCR) turning back in distance and has a decent past effort at the Spa, and #5 who also turns back and drops back to a level where he lost by only a half length in May.
Race 3 - #3 will be tough in here if he's right, having won going away in a $75k optional claimer in February at Gulfstream for Pletcher. BUT now he curiously is dropped in for a 25k tag after a five month layoff? That stinks. #2 and #4 both look like they can sit just behind the early pace and run past late.
Race 4 - Think the #6 and #9 can both move forward off decent turf sprint debuts and should have the advantage here. #2 might be sneaky here trying turf after a lousy dirt debut. Thinking dime-a-day for that one as a backup.
Race 5 - Typical sequence ending skull buster with maiden claimers going two turns on the turf. Guess the race goes through Chad's #12 dropping to the claiming ranks. #5 is also dropping and his last effort was decent considering the trip. After that there's another four that have past efforts that could win this, but they're 0 for 49 as a group. #7 for Mott also wouldn't have to improve much in his 3rd start to take this.