Saratoga 7/22-9/5

R10: is wide open but at 30-1 I have to take a stab at #14, will have to overcome 12 post on inner but drops in class, had no chance going 1 1/4 in last, two back ran on dirt throw that out, 3 and 4 back make him a player in here. Hennig is 4 for his last 17 24% dropping from MSW to Maiden Clm healthy $6.84 ROI

Win #14
 
Long day @ work. I'm gonna get a chance to play tomorrow thank god.
i didn't get my fix in today
 
Going to the track tomorrow and I won't be around so let me get some Saturday thoughts in...

7/23

R1: should be an honest pace with projected early speeds of 1,4,6 and maybe it sets up for someone like 2 or 5...#2 (15-1 ml) last 3 races were on turf and 4 back was muddy track throw out race, prior two efforts make him a contender in here. Trainer 2/8 L2 meets...#5 drops in class and cuts back in distance, has back races vs much tougher and should get a great pace setup, last was route and before that turf...3 back was a good troubled trip effort, broke maiden sprinting so maybe that's what he always wanted to do.

R2:
#1 9/5 ml and I'm against, trainer 0/13 2 yo's stretching in distance on turf at Saratoga L5 years
#2 breeding suggests should appreciate added ground, off slow and wide in debut, should improve 2nd out for Casse who is very good w/ maiden 2nd time starters
#3 low percentage turf trainer
#4 30-1 ml but great turf breeding on dam side, Lukas 3 for last 18 17% 1st turf $6.54 ROI
#5 trainer more than capable at having them ready to go 2 turns 1st out, Lynch 7/38 18% L3 meets, full bro to G3 winner Oscar Nominated (2 for 8 turf $132k earner)
#6 great turf sire
#7 Blame's offspring win 18% turf
#8 Clement can win w/ 1sters going long in debut
#10 ran vs good field on dirt in debut, trainer not good dirt to turf but is good sprint to route, half to $199k turf earner
 
R3: I'm against #1 who has to deal with rail and other speeds to his outside...#2, #5 look like the main contenders

R4: wide open race, 7 of 10 are dropping from MSW to Maiden Claiming....looks like a lot of early speeds 1,4,5,7,10...#7 could win but he's run good enough in MSW that I don't get the drop for tag off layoff and has to deal with other speeds...#6 (20-1) looks like solid value for a trainer I love, ran against negative rail bias in last.
 
R5:
#11 in last bobbled, checked in between, clip heels at start and that eliminated his chances, then wide turn and angled in...not a very good ride and gets a positive jockey change today...won debut this course and distance...Trainer 23/123 19% L4 meets...trainer/jockey combo had good meet last year...should show more speed today and be in the race early.
#3 will be tough to beat based on his 1 length defeat vs Disco Partner who was only beaten a nk in G3 Jaipur in his next start.
#5 not a fan of cutbacks in turf sprints but Clement is very good with turf sprinters and could be a contender.
#10 his times are posted incorrectly by DRF in his win two back, Trakus has the fractions 22.59, 45.22, 55.98, 1:07.23....could be dangerous speed in a race that appears to lack early speed types
 
Play2win said:
R5:
#11 in last bobbled, checked in between, clip heels at start and that eliminated his chances, then wide turn and angled in...not a very good ride and gets a positive jockey change today...won debut this course and distance...Trainer 23/123 19% L4 meets...trainer/jockey combo had good meet last year...should show more speed today and be in the race early.
#3 will be tough to beat based on his 1 length defeat vs Disco Partner who was only beaten a nk in G3 Jaipur in his next start.
#5 not a fan of cutbacks in turf sprints but Clement is very good with turf sprinters and could be a contender.
#10 his times are posted incorrectly by DRF in his win two back, Trakus has the fractions 22.59, 45.22, 55.98, 1:07.23....could be dangerous speed in a race that appears to lack early speed types
Click to expand...
#3 had wide trip vs Disco Partner and ran 10 feet further according to Trakus, bullet work should have him ready
 
R6: #2 bump at start in debut...Asmussen very dangerous at this meet with 2YO maiden 2nd time starters on dirt...attracts Irad who possibly picked this one instead of Chad firster?

R7: #5 (15-1 ml) drops in class after breaking from 13 post in G3 Jaipur, trainer won 2 races on opening day and had a great Belmont spring meet, only beaten a neck in G3 two back and could be the main controlling speed in here.
#2 shouldn't have been taken down in last
#3 was a re-claim three back and Jacobson has him back in good form, jockey change to Irad
 
R8: #1A registered a 93 Beyer in debut vs what proved to be a loaded race, then beaten fav off layoff in G3 stakes and lunged at the start
#9 bobble start then chased pace while wide in last and now gets a positive jockey switch
#3 2nd off layoff for trainer that's very good 2nd off 180+ day layoffs, troubled trip in last

R9: I've always been on the My Man Sam bandwagon but I wonder if he gets enough pace to run at in here...#2 appears to be the lone speed and is my top pick
 
R10: #4 was 2nd beaten 3 lengths and 4th beaten 2 3/4 lengths in Group 1's in France...1st race in U.S. was off layoff, had awkward start and ran 2nd vs Tepin and last time was beaten a length but ran 21 ft further than winner according to Trakus.
#6 comes in off wide trips, beat Tepin this course and distance U.S. debut last year
#8 in last fought with rider early, wanted to run and was a slow pace...maybe Ortiz can relax her, just looking at races on firm make her a contender
#2 ran well last year when shipping back from Ascot but she was given more time off then, also the field of older males she beat two back has come back to be a weak race
 
R11: #2 is a drop down for Chad/Irad
#4 drops for Maker who aquired this one through private purchase, huge jockey upgrade
#1 would be a contender but I question going 2 turns?
#9 (20-1) is a bomb that could hit the board...not good position in last, check and steady, no room top stretch, could go to front here....very good sprint to route trainer
#10 is in great shape right now and should get a good pace setup
 
Looking forward to this race tonight at Del Mar and don't know how or if to play it but Chrome and Dortmund is sport, can't miss type stuff and it's not even PPV
 
Only value in that race is going against Chrome or Dortmund, I'll sit it out and watch, should be a good one, think Chrome wins by about 4
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Only value in that race is going against Chrome or Dortmund, I'll sit it out and watch, should be a good one, think Chrome wins by about 4
Click to expand...

I'm thinking about going deep on Chrome to win and not thinking twice. Just like a day trade...of course it could lose but I still think it's correct
 
kjohnson109 said:
I'm thinking about going deep on Chrome to win and not thinking twice. Just like a day trade...of course it could lose but I still think it's correct
Click to expand...

Great win for Chrome but newfound respect for Dortmund. He is one tough hombre down the lane. Hoping the two of them and Beholder all make it to the Pacific Classic next month.
 
Nice late double got me out for the day yesterday...on to today..

Really wish 1A didn't scratch out of R1 because I was against him and like #10 who goes for great off the claim trainer, 33% off the claim in dirt sprints L5 years.

R1 looking at doubles #10/2,5,8,9,10
 
R2 I'm against Ward's horses, poor numbers stretching out on turf...#5 Is A longshot but Is bred for turf and Donk had a great Bel spring meet
 
I don't have anything in R4

R5: #2 had an impossible trip when beaten a neck last time, now off the claim for Dubb/Servis....Servis is 9 for 20 $3.69 ROI off the claim in turf sprints L5 years
 
R6: #6 had a poor post in debut race and was caught wide whole race and still only beaten 1.5 lengths
 
Play2win said:
R6: #6 had a poor post in debut race and was caught wide whole race and still only beaten 1.5 lengths
Click to expand...
Covered most ground, Trakus has ran 21 feet more than winner while 2nd,3rd,4th,5th,7th place finishers all ran less distance than winner
2nd: -18 feet
3rd: -3
4th: -15
5th: -9
7th: -10
 
Play2win said:
Nice late double got me out for the day yesterday...on to today..

Really wish 1A didn't scratch out of R1 because I was against him and like #10 who goes for great off the claim trainer, 33% off the claim in dirt sprints L5 years.

R1 looking at doubles #10/2,5,8,9,10
Click to expand...
Played doubles and added a pk3 using #6 in R3
 
Late Pick 4 - Until Songbird loses she'll be a single on my ticket. Makes it basically a Pick 3 but there's big fields and plenty of price options to make a small ticket useful:

2,8,10 / 1,4,9,10,11 / 1 / 4,5,11
 
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