Saratoga 7/22-9/5

[FONT=&quot]R9: Ian Wilkes
Turf->Dirt AND Route->Sprint: 13 wins from 43 starts/28% win, 61% ITM, ROI $2.23[/FONT]
 
My initial thoughts without knowing what impact the weather will have at Sar and Arl...

Saratoga

R1: #6 will be fav and could win...Pletcher is great with horses coming off 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints but this 1st time gelding is taking a huge drop off the layoff and a horse like #4 (12-1) offers plenty more value...I had him last time when bumped at start vs a tougher group than the one he faces today...prior three races were on turf so throw those out, before that caught mud and raced against track bias as rail was not the place to be 5/7 @ Bel, two races prior to that are the races I'd like to see him run today...Ferraro is 3 for 11 27% last 3 Spa meets..
#2 will be heavily backed at the windows and could win but C. Englehart is 1/25 off the claim in dirt sprints at NYRA tracks L5 years

R2: (IF TURF)
#1: mixed feelings....good: I loved his dam Keertana who was great on turf and ran some good ones at the Spa..2nd G2 Lake Placid, 2nd De La Rose, 1st G3 Glens Falls....training well for debut, sire wins 14% of 1sters and 13% 1st turf
The bad: no value on a trainer that is 2/14 w/ 2YO firsters on turf at Spa since going 5 for 10 same move during '14 meet

#2: could show speed, has aggressive jockey and trainer having a great Spa meet...not much turf breeding but trainer is very good 1st turf and dirt to turf

#4: $1.7 million purchase...working great but probably needs a race since Shug is 1/39 Spa 1sters L5 years

#5 Sharp is plenty capable of having them ready to go two turns first time out

#6 poor move Pletcher 2YO 1ster turf route

#10 good debut but poor post if he can't make the lead early

#11 is AE so needs a scratch but improved drastically in last switching to turf and adding lasix...turf bred as 2nd dam was a multiple graded stakes winner who produced two turf winners
 
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R3 is a 7F 2YO MSW featuring three firsters and five that have run....
Of the ones that have run #5,6,8 all exit the same race that was won by Pletcher 1ster One Liner....#5 (15-1 ml) offers the most value of the three...10 post in debut, wide turn for Zito who is much better 2nd out than 1st out...#8 was a $375K 2YO purchase that had poor starts in his first two races and ran well last time....#6 has improved from debut race to his 2nd race after adding lasix and could take another step forward, Lukas 0 for meet so far

Of the firsters #2 looks to be the only one I would use, sharp works for Pletcher who has won with three 2YO firsters at meet so far

#1 is a contender going 2nd out for Rudy/Dubb
 
R4: IF ON TURF I will definitely be looking at #11 (20-1 ml) who two back was featured on NYRA trips & traps...not good position, check and steady, no room top stretch....then last time came out of gate slow and awkward after still being held by starter after gates opened (was a nice picture of it on twitter but I can't find it right now) and should've been declared a non-starter, then was rushed up and eventually tired...hopefully a better trip today
 
R5:

#1: good turf to dirt angle for Lukas who's 0 for meet

#2: Wilkes doesn't win with 1sters

#3: will take $ and could win but Stay Thirsty offspring 1 for 17 2YO firsters

#4: adds lasix, several multiple winners in family

#5: Parcells (August Dawn)/Sciacca $300K 2YO purchase who's a half to Runhappy may benefit having a race under his belt, Sciacca 10% trainer this yr but with Jose Ortiz 23% from 22 starts

#6: could be an interesting underneath bomb at 20-1 ml....short rest for low win percentage barn but...Mejia 1-9 days rest 110-9-9-15 and 10+ days rest 200-3-12-21 last 5 years...so he does this regularly, uses races as workouts/preps

#7: Zito doesn't win with 1sters but is a half to 5 winners

#9: 1ster with Javy could win, I'm a huge Maker fan but not good Spa dirt numbers
 
R6: IF TURF

I liked #4 when he was entered and scratched earlier in the meet so I've been waiting for him to run...last time had a poor setup vs wire to wire winner and two back faced a much tougher field

#2 (20-1 ml) ran a big race here last year off a similar layoff

#1,3,5 look to be the speeds

#7 (20-1 ml) 1st Maker and attracts Javy could be live

#11 has to overcome tough outside draw
 
R7 looks to have a lot of early speed types and I prefer those coming from off the pace...#6 had wide trip in last and that was a Grade 3 first time vs winners, has really stepped her game up in last two....#7 won first out for Wilkes who doesn't win with firsters so that's a good sign, should get a great setup and has nice outside draw, attracts Javy...#4 (12-1 ml) is a little sneaky here, 20% move for Terranova going route to sprint and turf to dirt L5 years
 
R8: IF TURF

#8 is the class coming out of five graded stakes..winner of last had perfect trip and is running at Arlington in R7 Secretariat

#9 had 10 post and was up against it on speed favoring turf course two back and last time ran 33 feet further than winner (#4) according to Trakus...has been training at Fair Hill and those shippers have done great at meet

#2 could be dangerous at a price for Mott...returns to Spa where he's run two very good races and stretches back to two turns while dropping in for a tag for the first time

#5 hasn't lost a step this year as a 6 yo, exits same race as #4,7,9,10 and was +11 Trakus...last year ran vs much better in two races at Spa
 
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R9:

#4 was up against it last time...fractious in paddock, threw a shoe, ran on inside against track bias (R-) and Violette has low win % with horses off a win so not best setup there either, hopefully more relaxed today

#3 two back won $100k stakes vs boys and throw out last race on turf at Ascot...appears to be lone speed in here and could get loose

#6 could win but at a short price I'll be against, Asmussen has poor numbers with 2yo's off maiden wins

#5 was a good looking winner in debut
 
R10 TURF

I'll be messing around with 20-1 ml shot #1...seems to be major value if he can run like some of his back races...was a beaten fav in last without blinkers and now puts blinkers back on...Voss has won 3 of last 5 $11.40 ROI adding B's

#7 could be dangerous speed

#6 is probably the one to beat...winner of last came back to run a 104 winning G2 Eddie Read at Del Mar

4,5,10 are definitely contenders...#4 would move up if soft/yielding/good turf
 
Arlington

R6:

#5 is the one to beat but #1,6,8,10 all look like players in here

#1 in last: was far back off a slow pace, bumped in stretch and missed 3rd by a neck vs foe that knocked him off heels while drifting out

#6 two back: took lead early under strong hold, stretched lead while still having a nice hold, pretty comfortable whole way up front as 2nd place finisher tried to make a stretch run but never got within a length, powerful finish...good races on left handed courses in past

#8 9yo gelding has been running in races of 2 miles and longer some jumps and exits a jump race...two back: in a bit tight early in a 18 horse field while chasing in 3rd in a race where 1st/2nd/3rd place finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way around for 2 11/16 miles...has a good 2nd on a left handed course in a Group 2....curious to see if there's an announcement regarding blinkers since he wore them in other flat races

#9 is scratched

#10 adds lasix off the layoff...good races in Group 1 company including his last in which he was in tight early with no racing room, then was blocked and shuffled in between and behind wall...when clear great late closing kick to get 2nd by a nose...couple of good races over LH courses but won't like soft/yielding
 
Arl R7:

#9 ran huge in Belmont Derby....in tight and unable to tuck in early while back of pack, then rushed up wide into a slow pace without asking, moved into nice spot within striking distance but wide, big late run through traffic stretch, took lead in gallop out past wire...covered most ground according to Trakus 45 feet more than winner

I'm against #2 who will be facing tougher competition and should get different race dynamics than he's been getting....in last the 2nd place finisher was a 17-1 early speed, American Patriot saved ground right behind and inherited a perfect trip and two back: another perfect trip, saved ground and was only one who pressured speed that quit..beat others to jump

#6 was sitting 3rd while saving ground in American Derby...3rd place finisher was sitting 2nd, speed horse was a 50-1 shot....i guess I give #4 (12-1 ml) a chance out of that race though, in sharp form and still could take another step forward
 
Arl R8:

#13 owner Martin Schwartz is going for his 4th Bev D win...exits race where her stablemates ran 1st and 3rd and she ran 2nd...both of those runners came back to win turf stakes at Spa..she trailed the field early and it was a slow pace, saved ground while advancing up inside then altered out and ran through traffic making a nice run while in tight

#6 in last: slow start, rushed up wide vs wire to wire winner Catch A Glimpse who set a slow pace

#1 not sure if there was a problem/excuse last time but if she is a major player if she shows up...a couple place finishes vs Minding

#4 (30-1 ml) is a bomb I may use underneath...that Kee race three back has had me keeping an eye on her
 
Arl R9:

#8 he's coming off a Group 3 win and is taking on way tougher here but seems to be improving and has run well over left handed courses...in last: 2nd place finisher was the speed while Decorated Knight sat 2nd to last (6th) wide then wider, circled field to win going away, strong movement with big strides "freakish"....stride reminds me of a past Arlington Million winner who was also moving up in class, Hardest Core.

#9 I have not yet watched his recent replays but based off his Woodbine Mile and BC Mile races he's a top contender

#10 wants firm going...in United Nations broke very slow 2nd to last (9th) and made a big wide move into a slow pace (which benifited #11)...perfect trip winner sat 2nd behind 75-1 speed horse, place horse sat 3rd/4th...had better trips and setups than Wake Forest, who I will be using

#13 is 3 yo facing older and has to deal with 13 post again

#5 defending champ has lost a step this year

#12 is likely the one to beat but won't like the going if soft or yielding
 
Was waiting to see how the weather was going to play out and it looks like the rain held off yesterday and chances keep getting better that it will today too.

Race 1: Big drop on favorite, #6, for Pletcher and Ramsey who would both take a big drop to keep pace in trainer and owner standings at this meet, but while he has run against better he doesn't seem to be that big of a standout on paper and but probably a must use in Pick 5. Top 2 picks will be #3, who may be controlling speed, and #4, see Play's post above for reasons why.

Race #2: #1 seems the one to beat, has the breeding and connections to win first out going long on the grass. A couple I will be looking to use for a price include a couple for trainers not known for firsters but like the way they have both trained coming into this with nice consistent breeze patterns, #4 and #7. #10 and 11 both have chances but project to be vying each other for the early lead from outside posts.

Race #3: #1 ran last like he would appreciate the added 1.5 furlongs he will get here for dangerous connections. #2 is a firster for Pletcher. #6 improved in last with addition of Lasix and is training well out of that effort. #8 is one I hear the Asmussen barn likes a lot and had some trouble in his last, should be able to stalk from outside and looks primed here.

Race #4: #6 will appreciate the rain staying away as he appears to like a firmer turf, drops to lowest level and should be on or near the lead on the inner turf which seems to favor early speed.
 
Play2win said:
R4: IF ON TURF I will definitely be looking at #11 (20-1 ml) who two back was featured on NYRA trips & traps...not good position, check and steady, no room top stretch....then last time came out of gate slow and awkward after still being held by starter after gates opened (was a nice picture of it on twitter but I can't find it right now) and should've been declared a non-starter, then was rushed up and eventually tired...hopefully a better trip today
Click to expand...

CoIqL4zWIAAYs44.jpg


#9 Dendrite being held by assistant starter as mention by P2W, should have been declared non-starter
 
Play2win said:
Arl R8:

#13 owner Martin Schwartz is going for his 4th Bev D win...exits race where her stablemates ran 1st and 3rd and she ran 2nd...both of those runners came back to win turf stakes at Spa..she trailed the field early and it was a slow pace, saved ground while advancing up inside then altered out and ran through traffic making a nice run while in tight

#6 in last: slow start, rushed up wide vs wire to wire winner Catch A Glimpse who set a slow pace

#1 not sure if there was a problem/excuse last time but if she is a major player if she shows up...a couple place finishes vs Minding

#4 (30-1 ml) is a bomb I may use underneath...that Kee race three back has had me keeping an eye on her
Click to expand...
Forgot to mention that Sea Calisi has been working in company with Lady Eli
 
Race #5: Expect a big improvement for #5 half to sprint champ Runhappy. #3 will be taking money as all Pletcher 2yo do.

Race #6: #9 has shown big improvement in last 2 since moving to turf 3 back, took control of a paceless race in last to go gate to wire but also won 2 back coming off the pace while sprinting, takes a step up in class but this is a barn that when they get them going good and put wins together. Race seems to have enough pace to set up nicely for #4, a professional who has won at the level. #8 is a wild card off a long layoff first time in barn of George Arnold moving from Pletcher barn, flashed some talent last year and if ready can prove a factor.
 
In R4 drop down #6 moves up even more now with the other speed scratching out (#2)...#4 is a contender at a price, goes off the claim for DiPrima who wins at a 17% clip last 5 years off claim on turf, good for a $4.93 ROI
 
Play2win said:
R6: IF TURF

I liked #4 when he was entered and scratched earlier in the meet so I've been waiting for him to run...last time had a poor setup vs wire to wire winner and two back faced a much tougher field

#2 (20-1 ml) ran a big race here last year off a similar layoff

#1,3,5 look to be the speeds

#7 (20-1 ml) 1st Maker and attracts Javy could be live

#11 has to overcome tough outside draw
Click to expand...
#7 was a private purchase

#8 is off a long layoff but Arnold is capable off these breaks, 2 for 3 over Spa turf and improved when adding blinkers in last...has been training great
 
Hope you don't mind me posting a few plays here today instead of opening a new thread.
Good luck to everyone today.
 
Race #7: #6 just missed in a G3 last out after getting a favorable pace set up seems like the one to beat. #7 makes 2nd start after winning debut for Wilkes who never wins 1st out so this may just be really talented. #3 cuts back to 1 turn which I thnk she prefers, but is a bit of a nut case, may want to keep an eye on in paddock and warming up.

Race #8: #2 I am biased with but think he has enough tactical speed to be involved early this time out, has had a few minor excuses in his last efforts but certainly needs to improve recent form, loves the Spa and talked to a few at his barn early in the week who all said he is sitting on a big effort here. #8 drops in to state company after running in a series of graded stakes but does face older for the first time and will not be getting a favorable pace set up, although addition of blinkers may have this one more forwardly placed, obvious main threat. #5 has been solid in 3 efforts this year but jock does jump to #8.
 
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Play2win said:
R10 TURF

I'll be messing around with 20-1 ml shot #1...seems to be major value if he can run like some of his back races...was a beaten fav in last without blinkers and now puts blinkers back on...Voss has won 3 of last 5 $11.40 ROI adding B's

#7 could be dangerous speed

#6 is probably the one to beat...winner of last came back to run a 104 winning G2 Eddie Read at Del Mar

4,5,10 are definitely contenders...#4 would move up if soft/yielding/good turf
Click to expand...


Some Formulator facts regarding Race 10

No. 1 Reporting Star.Trainer Elizabeth Voss is 73-13-9-4 with a $3.90 ROI over the past five years in turf routes shorter than two miles.
No. 3 A Lot.Trainer Chad Brown is 11-1-2-1 with a$1.03 ROI over the past five years going sprint to route in turf graded stakes.
No. 6 Tourist.Trainer Bill Mott is 37-3-4-8 with a $0.84 ROI over the past five years in turf graded stakes at Saratoga.
No. 7 King Kreesa. Trainer David Donk is 5-0-0-0 over the past five years in graded stakes at Saratoga.
 
Arl R3: Win #3
Drop down and possible lone speed...three back was at this level, had 11 post and was 4 wide 1st turn...two other back wins this level including a win at Arlington where he's 3-2-1-0 over the turf
 
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