Saratoga 2017

I should be around tonight and tomorrow if anyone wants to go over any Saturday races at Spa or Arlington
 
David Grening @DRFGrening
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Sweetneida fractured both sesamoids in left fore and was euthanized. Sixth racing-related fatality of meet, 11th (incl training) since 7-22
 
My Track biases

7/21: dirt R+, turf S+
7/22: dirt R+
7/24: dirt R+ (muddy S)
7/27: off track
7/28: dirt R+
7/29: dirt R+, dirt sprints S+
7/31: dirt R++
8/2: no bias dirt?
8/3: dirt R+
8/4: dirt R+

R = Rail, or inside favoring
S = speed, early speed, front runner
 
How do you work a rail bias into handicapping? Is it a matter of favoring lower numbered horses when other factors are similar?

To me a rail bias is very close to a speed bias, since horses that clear will usually drop down.

In routes it may favor the more patient veteran jocks and horses willing to wait for the rail to open up to make a pass.
 
I'm guessing it might also be a favorite killer too, since jocks will often ride conservative with such horses, keeping them In the clear on the outside.
 
Gandolf said:
How do you work a rail bias into handicapping? Is it a matter of favoring lower numbered horses when other factors are similar?

To me a rail bias is very close to a speed bias, since horses that clear will usually drop down.

In routes it may favor the more patient veteran jocks and horses willing to wait for the rail to open up to make a pass.
Click to expand...
How do you factor a rail bias into capping? Going forward I want to bet on horses that had outside trips on those R+ days
 
Today's weather forecast has changed for the better, should be a great day of racing with some money making opportunities with this difficult card...

R1: looks to be a good deal of early speed and should set it up for closers #2 and #4. #2 barn having solid meet and got back to good form when back sprinting last two races, has a win on Spa dirt...#4 Gullo is great off claim, ran well off layoff in last start despite running against track bias (R+)
 
R2: tough 2yo MSW, tend to favor ones with race experience, especially going 7F
#2 - one of the "hype" Pletcher 2yo's prior to meet, half to Sweet Loretta
#3 - Casse 1 for 40 something, hit gate start in debut and ran ok through stretch while green vs bias and vs wire to wire winner
#4 - exits same race as #9, winner wired field while setting fast fractions, good jockey/trainer combo last two Spa meets
#5 - Zito 0 for
#6 - solid works, Lukas has a couple 2yo winners already
#7 - Ramsey/Maker 1ster sired by Overanalyze who has dropped 8 debut winners from 28 starters (29%)
#8 - McLaughlin is one of the best but I don't particularly care for his 1sters at this meet
#9 - race experience, seems like a pricey ($500K) yearling purchase for Hennig barn, nice bullet work on 8/4, encouraging that Javy stays aboard and nice outside post draw, 7/8 race already has a return winner
 
R3:
#8 (10-1 ml) could be sneaky here off his prior turf effort two back, could be the speed and speed has been dangerous on inner turf
#3 Rice is great off the claim and good with stretchouts, Lezcano/Rice combo 4 for 5 current meet
 
R4: tough 2yo stakes leaning towards two filly's with race over track
#2 - I think it's a good sign that Pletcher is running her even though he has #1 in here, raced wide on R+ track last time
#8 - mud in debut then won adding blinkers, nice outside post draw today
 
R5:
#1 - slop in last start now back to turf, grass races 3 and 4 back make him a contender even at 30-1 ml price, DiPrima good move 2nd off 45-180 day layoffs
#3 - 2nd off layoff, has a win over Spa turf
#4 - huge class drop
#6 - claimed three back by red hot Servis, then raced for $40k on turf, slop in last now back to turf for $20k, the bad is 9yo gelding 1 for 14 last two years but never ran this cheap on turf
#8 - price cut in half 50%, was up against it after not breaking sharp (never does) in last as winner wired field and place horse was sitting 3rd
#9 - could be the speed
#10 - new gelding drops in class, Clement had a drop down run a good 2nd yesterday R2
#12 - another drop down, adds blinkers today, poor post
 
Skipping the opener, any of the seven can win, although based on current odds #1 is a ridiculous overlay at 9/1 heading in Asmussen barn and 3 for 4 at the distance.

Early Pick 4

R2 - sticking with the usual suspects, Pletcher firster #2 and 4 and 9 with good efforts last out. Casse will need to heat up before I start using him.

R3 - #3 in Rice barn has wire potential but I expect a cooker pace with 4 and 9 duking it out late.

R4 - Pletcher 2YOs 1 and 2 are must use and #8 has the right price based on her good last effort

R5 - Tossing Pletcher favorite here and rolling with 9 as early speed, 12 with the equipment change and 10 with the ultimate equipment change for Clement.

2,4,9 / 3,4,9 / 1,2,8 / 9,10,12
 
Gandolf said:
Skipping the opener, any of the seven can win, although based on current odds #1 is a ridiculous overlay at 9/1 heading in Asmussen barn and 3 for 4 at the distance.

Early Pick 4

R2 - sticking with the usual suspects, Pletcher firster #2 and 4 and 9 with good efforts last out. Casse will need to heat up before I start using him.

R3 - #3 in Rice barn has wire potential but I expect a cooker pace with 4 and 9 duking it out late.

R4 - Pletcher 2YOs 1 and 2 are must use and #8 has the right price based on her good last effort

R5 - Tossing Pletcher favorite here and rolling with 9 as early speed, 12 with the equipment change and 10 with the ultimate equipment change for Clement.

2,4,9 / 3,4,9 / 1,2,8 / 9,10,12
Click to expand...

My Pick 4 ticket looking very similar: 4,9/4,9/1,2,8/4,6,8,10,12, GL Gandy
 
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