Saratoga 2017

Wednesday 8/30

Opener is a rough looking group. #6 dropping to this level, has races that will win here, but is also 0 for 12. #2 also has run at a speed that can win here, but is 0 for 2 at level. Only firster is from Pletcher which makes her a must play, but TAP is much better with regular maidens than the maiden claimers. #9 is the other class dropper and coming over from turf, is the mystery/wise guy horse at the square price. A - 2,9 B - 3,6

Race 2 comes down to #4 and #8 coming from stalking positions. #7 has a new trainer, a win at the distance, and a sharp recent work, so he's the price play. A - 4,8 B - 7

Race 3 is a wide open group going 9 panels. #1 and #5 should prompt the pace. #1 has a win at this level, and #5 is dropping in class, but neither is coming in with good form. #2 made a nice bid last time out before flattening out, and #4 has a win at the distance and won last out. Will go with their form over the early front runners. A - 2,4 B - 1,5 Whiffed

Race 4 is a tough race. You have one from Chad (#3) and one from Todd (#1A) that need to be respected, both coming in from better races. #4, #5 and #6 all have two turn efforts that fit in here. #2 is the wise guy price horse stretching out from 7 furlongs. A - 1,2,3 B - 4,5,6

Race #5 is even tougher than the previous two. The favorite makes little sense with a pair of sprints that don't measure up against this group. Price horses #2, #3, #4, #8 and #10 all can win, so I'm tossing the #5 and #9 outright. A - 2,3,10 B - 4.8
 
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Race 7 #3 has a towering class edge over the field but hasn't raced in 9 months. #11 looks to be lone speed but tends to prefer a stalking trip. #7 is a smooth fit for the race, #1 is an Uncle Mo baby trying turf that could be interesting. Of the two Chad Browns I like #6 who's been keeping better company. A - 3,7 B - 1,6,11

Race 8 comes down to the babies from Chad and Todd, #2 and #6. A - 2,6 B - none

Race 9 is a tough Stake with lots of 2nd time starters, a couple of stretch outs and a lot of guesswork. #9 boasts the best looking win. #7 and #10 ran well at the distance and should be forwardly placed. #11 for Pletcher is one of two maidens in the race and could find himself in the winners circle if the pace obliges. One more to add would be the #8 for Motion. A - 7,9 B - 8,10,11

Race 10 leads in two directions. #9 is the clear early speed of the returning horses, although none of them have run a lick to date. That leaves us with three firsters, #5, #6 and #7. A - 5,6,7 B - 9
 
I'll be around in a couple hours to post some Fri plays, also working on Sat cards at Spa and Kentucky Downs
 
Getting ahead of myself a bit, Ky Downs doesn't start until Weds but overnights are already out so it confused me (easily done these days)
 
Actually was supposed to be opening day tomorrow but card is rescheduled due to torrential downpours
 
R3 DD #3,9/3

In R4 #7 and #11 are big drop downs and could win but taking a shot with #3 (15-1) inside speed has been great on turf since rails were taken down, fresh paths
 
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