Offseason in the FCS

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I'm going over some roster data this spring to be in a better position this summer for the season. But I wanted to post about 2025 FCS football! Probably will be active here for the next couple weeks posting some stuff.

Coaching Changes: (copy and pasted from Hero Sports)

Last offseason, there were 30 FCS head coaching changes. That was up from 28 in 2023 and 22 in 2022.

As of March 10, there are 23 head coaching changes.

Northern Iowa
Departing coach: Mark Farley
Date: 11/10
Reason: Retired at the conclusion of the season
New hire: Todd Stepsis (Drake HC)

Prairie View A&M
Departing coach: Bubba McDowell
Date: 11/24
Reason: Contract will not be renewed
New hire: Tremaine Jackson (Valdosta State HC)

Valparaiso
Departing coach: Landon Fox
Date: 11/24
Reason: Contract will not be renewed
New hire: Andy Waddle (Marietta College HC)

McNeese
Departing coach: Gary Goff
Date: 11/25
Reason: “After evaluating our football program, I felt a change in leadership was necessary.” – McNeese AD Heath Schroyer
New hire: Matt Viator (former McNeese HC)

Davidson
Departing coach: Scott Abell
Date: 11/26
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at Rice
New hire: Saj Thakkar (Bentley University HC)

Norfolk State
Departing coach: Dawson Odums
Date: 11/26
Reason: “Change in leadership”
New hire: Michael Vick (former NFL QB)

North Dakota
Departing coach: Bubba Schweigert
Date: 11/30
Reason: Stepped down and moved into a senior administrative role at UND
New hire: Eric Schmidt (San Diego State DC)

Nicholls
Departing coach: Tim Rebowe
Date: 12/1
Reason: Retired
New hire: Tommy Rybacki (Nicholls DC)

Colgate
Departing coach: Stan Dakosty
Date: 12/2
Reason: “Change in leadership”
New hire: Curt Fitzpatrick (Cortland State HC)

Alabama A&M
Departing coach: Connell Maynor
Date: 12/2
Reason: “Relieved from his duties”
New hire: Sam Shade (Miles College HC)

Drake
Departing coach: Todd Stepsis
Date: 12/3
Reason: Stepped down to accept the UNI head coach opening
New hire: Joe Woodley (Grand View University HC)

Stetson
Departing coach: Brian Young
Date: 12/3
Reason: Resigned to pursue other opportunities
New hire: Mike Jasper (Bethel HC)

Delaware State
Departing coach: Lee Hull
Date: 12/3
Reason: Fired
New hire: DeSean Jackson (former NFL WR)

Butler
Departing coach: Mike Uremovich
Date: 12/4
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at Ball State
New hire: Kevin Lynch (Ball State OC)

North Carolina A&T
Departing coach: Vincent Brown
Date: 12/4
Reason: “Relieving him of his duties”
New hire: Shawn Gibbs (Fort Valley State HC)

Mississippi Valley State
Departing coach: Kendrick Wade
Date: 12/4
Reason: Fired
New hire: Terrell Buckley (Orlando Guardians HC)

Sacramento State
Departing coach: Andy Thompson
Date: 12/6
Reason: Resigned to join the Stanford coaching staff
New hire: Brennan Marion (UNLV OC)

ETSU
Departing coach: Tre Lamb
Date: 12/8
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at Tulsa
New hire: Will Healy (Georgia State assistant HC)

Idaho
Departing coach: Jason Eck
Date: 12/14
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at New Mexico
New hire: Thomas Ford (Oregon State RBs coach)

South Dakota State
Departing coach: Jimmy Rogers
Date: 12/28
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at Washington State
New hire: Dan Jackson (Idaho DC)

South Dakota
Departing coach: Bob Nielson
Date: 1/16
Reason: Retired
New hire: Travis Johansen (South Dakota DC)

UAlbany
Departing coach: Greg Gattuso
Date: 2/5
Reason: Stepped down to join the Penn State staff
New hire: 2025 Interim: Jared Ambrose (UAlbany OC)

Tennessee State
Departing coach: Eddie George
Date: 3/9
Reason: Resigned to accept the head coaching position at Bowling Green
New hire: Reggie Barlow (D.C. Defenders HC)

Conference Alignment Changes, moving up, moving down, gone to FBS and playoffs

Alignment Changes:
Richmond goes from the CAA to the Patriot League

Moving up:
2025 is University Texas Rio Grande's inaugural football season and will be a Southland Conference member

Moving down:
Next year, 2026, St Francis will move to Dlll

Gone to FBS:
Delaware and Missouri State

Playoff changes:
Ivy League will participate in the 24 team playoff field for 2025. St Thomas is playoff eligible for the first time this year.

FCS vs FBS (selectively copied from Fear the FCS)

The 121 FCS-FBS matchups in 2024 were a record. There were six FCS over FBS wins in 2024, which is two higher than in 2023 but below the 8 recorded in 2022 and half of 2021’s 12 FCS wins.

The average margin of defeat for the FCS in 2024 was 31.09 points per game, which is the second worst behind 2018’s average margin of 31.13. The other stat was the number of games in which FCS teams were shut out by their FBS opponents. In 2024, it happened 17 times, which is one less than the record of 18 set in 2022. Those two are worth keeping an eye on to see if things improve following roster limit implementations under the House settlement.

2024 FCS Versus FBS Matchups in Review

The 2024 FCS season is entering the playoffs so let’s provide a recap of all 121 FCS versus FBS matchups this year. The 121 FCS-FBS matchups in 2024 were a record and the 2025 season already has over…

fearthefcs.com

Chart on the link above is sortable for FBS pt totals vs FCS teams, FBS teams scored 40+ pts vs their FCS opponents 62% of the time (75 out of 121 games), in 32 of those games or 26% overall the FBS team scored 50+ pts.


I don't know the exact numbers, but I do know many times the FBS team gets the full game Over themselves when they play FCS. I may look into that for last year's numbers.

By my count the FCS ATS vs FBS 2024 59-60-2 on closing offshore lines that I recorded from maddux sports. That record includes two FCS teams that were favored over the FBS (Montana State -13 at NewMex (no cover) and UT Martin -1.5 at Kennesaw (cover)). I may dig into these numbers further detail. I didn't keep track of 1H and 2H lines last year, not sure if any of the online ATS tracking sites did?

 

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ESPN first reported Wednesday that Sac State was planning on filing a waiver to transition from the FCS to the FBS, which was later confirmed by university president Luke Wood to the Sacramento Bee.

The plan is to play football in the FCS' Big Sky in 2025 before jumping to the FBS in 2026 as an independent. It would then be eligible for the FBS postseason in 2027. Life as an independent in the FBS isn't easy, so the end goal would be to join a conference, potentially the MW. In recent months, Sac State has laid out an ambitious plan to invest heavily into athletic, including a potential $200 million to $250 million new football stadium. Making the transition to the FBS comes with a $5 million fee plus spending a minimum of $6 million annually on scholarships.

Sac State’s Path To FBS Independent Approval​

Last week, Sacramento State filed an application with the NCAA to transition from the FCS to be an FBS independent member. The school had already filed a waiver to make this transition, which is required because a team needs a conference invite to move from the FCS to the FBS.

It’s important to note that this is not necessarily an NCAA office decision on whether or not to grant Sac State a waiver. These sorts of decisions go through a voting/approval process from different committees, boards, and/or councils with representatives from schools and conferences.

Sac State’s approval process will start with the FBS Oversight Committee, which is made up of mostly FBS conference/school admins. It would then go to the Division I Council, which is made up of conference/school admins from 32 D1 conferences.

The FBS Oversight Committee’s next meeting is on April 10.

It’s no secret that FBS leaders, especially those in the Power 4, do not want to see the FBS grow by adding more FCS teams. Some within the Mountain West Conference wanted to add North Dakota State, but MWC presidents instead voted to invite Northern Illinois as a football-only member, and a big reason for that was wanting to add an already-established FBS program.

Sac State has a strong pitch to join the FBS as an independent due to its location, facility upgrades, and reported community financial support.

However, its fate is essentially up to other FBS schools and conference representatives. Will these FBS leaders deny Sac State’s request to join their subdivision as an independent? Will a “no” answer result in a lawsuit from Sac State, so they’ll say “yes” to avoid that headache? Is there a concern of opening the floodgates and a precedent if they say yes and we see other FCS programs try to take this same FBS independent route? How does the future pathway from FCS to FBS look as NCAA governance sees some changes?

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how it unfolds. Liberty was able to make a similar jump in the 2010s. Sac State hopes to follow that same path. FCS Daily Dose: Sac State's Path To FBS Independent Approval + USD Loses 2 Standouts + SDSU Adds Key OL Transfer

 

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Of the 128 FCS programs for the 2025 season, 94 schools will play at least one FBS team in 2025. 63 will play one FBS opponent, 30 will play two FBS foes, and one team (UT Martin courtesy of Missouri State moving to Conference USA) will play three FBS teams. A full breakdown of matchups by FCS and FBS conferences can be found at the bottom of the page. There are currently no week zero FCS-FBS matchups scheduled while week one has “only” 47 games, noticeably lower than the record of 59 opening week games in 2024.

The Ivy League and Pioneer Football League are not scheduled to play any FBS opponents in 2025. In addition to the 19 combined teams from the Ivy League and PFL without an FBS opponent, 15 other FCS programs do not have an FBS team lined up for 2025: Georgetown (Patriot) Hampton (MEAC), Lehigh (Patriot), Mercyhurst (NEC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Montana (Big Sky), North Dakota State (MVFC), Sacred Heart (Independent), South Dakota State (MVFC), Southern Utah (UAC), Stonehill (NEC), Tennessee State (OVC-Big South), Utah Tech (UAC), UTRGV (Southland), and West Georgia (UAC). The list could change as schedules are finalized.

Every FBS conference is slated to face at least one FCS program and 10 FBS teams are not scheduled to play against an FCS opponent in 2025: Colorado (Big 12), Michigan (Big Ten), Notre Dame (Independent), Sam Houston State (C-USA), Stanford (ACC), Texas (SEC), Tulane (American), UCLA (Big Ten), USC (Big Ten), and Wisconsin (Big Ten). That number could change as schedules are finalized for the 2025 season.

Above is from Fear the FCS - 2025 FCS Versus FBS Matchups

I'm in no position yet to formulate any opinions as I haven't looked in-depth at the transfer portal moves. The spring portal movements are significant and I'm just letting the dust settle on all the moves until I see who is gone or who is new.

Last year was disappointing in that only 6 FCS teams pulled upsets. I had thought there could be as many as 10-12 last summer I believe. There were some very close calls:

ACU failed on a 2pt play in OT to lose to Texas Tech by 1

UCA lost with :03 on a Central Arkansas TD catch that was actually incomplete, but the TD was upheld

UTC only lost by 3 at Georgia State although it didn't really feel like they were capable of winning it

Gardner Webb was up 20-3 3Q on Charlotte, but then trailed 20-27. GW scored TD in the final minute, but went for 2 and failed to lose by 1. (GW +41 ttl yards). Previously GW only lost to JMU 6-13 (GW only -16 ttl yards).

NDSU led CU 20-17 at HT and only lost by 5 (NDSU -55 ttl yards)

Tennessee Tech was down 0-21, but led 25-24 with 1:06 left, before MTSU scored TD with :16 for the win

That is 6 more that the FCS could've got. Although in fairness, Southern Utah's win at UTEP was possible because UTEP missed two FGs at the end of regulation and in OT. And FIU fumbled just before crossing the goal line going into the EZ trailing by 3 with just :32 left in the game. So a couple lucky wins there perhaps.

 

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I haven't watched the NFL draft in many years. I do have interest now in seeing what FCS guys get picked. This article was pretty good documenting the decline in FCS draft picks the last several years with the transfer portal being the primary factor. OL is still an area that FCS prospects are still getting drafted at the same rate.

“I am not saying this because I coached the O-line for a lot of years,” Ferrante said, “but I believe the reason the offensive line position has stayed is because the guys that play O-line are probably the most loyal guys that play the game. They don’t care as much about the ‘headlines’ and don’t have the same level of ‘ego’ that other positional players have.”


Said Polasek: “Most FCS offensive linemen are lacking something when they are high school sophomores, and that is who the P4’s (FBS Power Four conferences) are recruiting. They lack either strength, height and/or weight. Their confidence grows with success, and that takes time for process and potential to come together.”

FCS OL prospects will be the first off the board from the subdivision next week, 4 of the top 5 likely FCS draft picks are expected to be OL.

How Can FCS College Football Stop Its Steep Decline in NFL Draft Picks? | Opta Analyst

The drop in FCS NFL Draft selections is 34 percent this decade. Here’s why it’s happening and whether the decline can be changed.

theanalyst.com