Playoffs in the FCS
- Thread starter s--k
- Start date
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Yeah I need ACU to stay close as I think ultimately NDSU will bring plenty of offense if ACU can help a bit
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Feel pretty good about my nova 10.5 all things considered
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
That's a wrap on round 2.
So I'm away from home in a rural location. Internet here is cellular which Thursday was so bad I couldn't watch the NFL game. But it's been fine since and I was able to enjoy a day of 100% streamed games. Over 80 bets spread across 9 games, pretty busy and pretty fun!
Didn't watch any of the SWAC title. Had just 3 bets in that one, saw it was tied 10-10 HT and then I don't know what happened 2H, but big blowout. Cool for TC to accomplish what he has following in Prime's shoes.
South Dakota State led 35-3 after a 40y pick-six. I know they pulled Gronowski and I'm sure it was backups on D that saw Montana go down and score those 4Q TDs including the final one with just :04 left. SDSU finished with just 399-306 yard edge because Montana gained 160 yards on two garbage drives for TDs. The spread looked like it was too big, but the way the game played out the spread was not too big. Just that SDSU pulled the starters with more games ahead and Montana kept playing.
I mismanaged the URI - Mercer game. First off, Mercer's O had some issues earlier in the season, but they had seemed to fully figure all that out. Noted Rhode Island D is pretty good, but still. But secondly, I had Mercer ATS at various lines, then started playing URI at various lines and ended up losing every ATS bet in this game, but the Mercer ML and an Under allowed me to escape with just a minor loss. URI had two TDs called back in this one by penalty and one of Mercer's TDs was scored on D. Just 239y of O (3.6) for Mercer O. I saw Smith on the field, but he had no pass attempts, only 4 rushes. I think he needs to play more QB assuming he is healthy - which if you have him running the ball he should be able to spend some time making throws too. They went with the Fr the whole time, who played some good games down the stretch, but today he passed 10-20-57-1-0 (sacked 4x).
Not surprising that Villanova and Incarnate Word was close and maybe not real surprising it was an Under, but 13-6 is pretty wild low scoring game. It was 6-3 entering the 4Q! UIW had a 437-138 (5.0-2.8) yard edge and a 25-9 FD edge with Nova converting just 1 of 12 on 3rd down! Nova O had no drive over 40y and their FGs were 49 and 52 yarders! But that Nova D didn't allow any big plays, some drops by UIW, and only 1 TD on 4 RZ trips pretty much the story. Nova secondary played well and Calzada's biggest impact came with his running.
I didn't spend any time at all watching Tarleton - South Dakota 1H. I didn't have any TV space for it and had no action on it. That was a game I had no feel for. I jumped in at halftime on a couple cheap MLs. Very surprising how their D struggled in this one. Needs to be said that Tarleton does have pretty capable offense, just must've been their day and USD didn't match it with the right scheme, or they thought they could just do their normal stuff and it would be good enough. I don't know, but it was back-and-forth. Felt like when USD held them to a FG at 31-28 that was a big moment in the game because the USD O was heating up, overall they scored TDs on 4 of their first 6 2H possessions, while they held Tarleton to just 10 2H pts and forced them into 2 INTs to change the game.
Montana State - UT Martin started as a laugher, 21-0, then UTM got back into it for a minute there 21-10, and then Montana State asserted themselves again. Mellott's passing was amazing...part of that is UTM was keying so much to stop the run any kind of play action and MSU guys would be so open, but Tommy made some really good throws and the stat line shows 22-25-300-4-0 - that is a wow! Exactly the kind of game Cat fans want to see with bigger playoff games on the horizon. Very selective running by him and some just get out of bounds round. Smart.
Abilene - North Dakota was a fun game. Pretty close too. After ACU led 17-3, NDSU got the momentum back immediately with the KO ret TD. Bison got up 34-17, but ACU got back within 10 to keep things interesting. Was just a 10 pt game with 4 minutes left and NDSU won by 20 because of back-to-back INTs from ACU resulted in a FG drive netting 3y and a pick-six by the Bison. And ACU was SOD at their own 15 with under 2min to go, NDSU did run 1 play then took knees. A good passing game and especially one with some balance can get this NDSU D.
Davis wins comfortably after falling behind early. Illinois State was pretty hot to start. But once Davis got their footing on both sides of the ball it was tough for Ill St. Weird 2H. Went Over opening numbers, should've been more points. 2H Ill St had three drives into the RZ result in 0 pts. The only reason it went over even the opening total is because Ill St was SOD at their own 32 late and Davis was trying to get this one player a TD. Ill St started keying on them down near the goal line so Hastings threw it on 3rd down to another guy who made a great catch. Hastings passed for 400y with a 3-0 ratio, great game for him to close out his career at home.
I think Lehigh played as good as they possibly could've. The final score seems pretty fair even though the Lehigh TD was kind of cheap at the end, against the Idaho backups on D, Lehigh had their starters in (QB was early season starter and a 5th year). Going to be a lot harder going forward, but I think we saw the potential that Idaho has passing with Layne and how it might make a rematch vs Montana State different. I doubt it changes in terms of who wins or loses, but I do believe it will matter in terms of competitiveness.
There will be one playoff game next Friday night. As of right now it is TBA. ESPN always loves NDSU home games, but not sure if Mercer is an attractive enough matchup. Davis at South Dakota might be the closest game, but it lacks appeal. They already aired Idaho at Montana State earlier in the year on ESPN or ESPN2. I think they will choose Incarnate Word at South Dakota State for the Friday game, another rematch. Incarnate Word actually was in that game for a full 3Q. Think UIW had some complaints about the refs, and UIW had some bad penalties whether the refs were favoring SDSU or not. Could be a good one. Wonder what the weather will be?
So I'm away from home in a rural location. Internet here is cellular which Thursday was so bad I couldn't watch the NFL game. But it's been fine since and I was able to enjoy a day of 100% streamed games. Over 80 bets spread across 9 games, pretty busy and pretty fun!
Didn't watch any of the SWAC title. Had just 3 bets in that one, saw it was tied 10-10 HT and then I don't know what happened 2H, but big blowout. Cool for TC to accomplish what he has following in Prime's shoes.
South Dakota State led 35-3 after a 40y pick-six. I know they pulled Gronowski and I'm sure it was backups on D that saw Montana go down and score those 4Q TDs including the final one with just :04 left. SDSU finished with just 399-306 yard edge because Montana gained 160 yards on two garbage drives for TDs. The spread looked like it was too big, but the way the game played out the spread was not too big. Just that SDSU pulled the starters with more games ahead and Montana kept playing.
I mismanaged the URI - Mercer game. First off, Mercer's O had some issues earlier in the season, but they had seemed to fully figure all that out. Noted Rhode Island D is pretty good, but still. But secondly, I had Mercer ATS at various lines, then started playing URI at various lines and ended up losing every ATS bet in this game, but the Mercer ML and an Under allowed me to escape with just a minor loss. URI had two TDs called back in this one by penalty and one of Mercer's TDs was scored on D. Just 239y of O (3.6) for Mercer O. I saw Smith on the field, but he had no pass attempts, only 4 rushes. I think he needs to play more QB assuming he is healthy - which if you have him running the ball he should be able to spend some time making throws too. They went with the Fr the whole time, who played some good games down the stretch, but today he passed 10-20-57-1-0 (sacked 4x).
Not surprising that Villanova and Incarnate Word was close and maybe not real surprising it was an Under, but 13-6 is pretty wild low scoring game. It was 6-3 entering the 4Q! UIW had a 437-138 (5.0-2.8) yard edge and a 25-9 FD edge with Nova converting just 1 of 12 on 3rd down! Nova O had no drive over 40y and their FGs were 49 and 52 yarders! But that Nova D didn't allow any big plays, some drops by UIW, and only 1 TD on 4 RZ trips pretty much the story. Nova secondary played well and Calzada's biggest impact came with his running.
I didn't spend any time at all watching Tarleton - South Dakota 1H. I didn't have any TV space for it and had no action on it. That was a game I had no feel for. I jumped in at halftime on a couple cheap MLs. Very surprising how their D struggled in this one. Needs to be said that Tarleton does have pretty capable offense, just must've been their day and USD didn't match it with the right scheme, or they thought they could just do their normal stuff and it would be good enough. I don't know, but it was back-and-forth. Felt like when USD held them to a FG at 31-28 that was a big moment in the game because the USD O was heating up, overall they scored TDs on 4 of their first 6 2H possessions, while they held Tarleton to just 10 2H pts and forced them into 2 INTs to change the game.
Montana State - UT Martin started as a laugher, 21-0, then UTM got back into it for a minute there 21-10, and then Montana State asserted themselves again. Mellott's passing was amazing...part of that is UTM was keying so much to stop the run any kind of play action and MSU guys would be so open, but Tommy made some really good throws and the stat line shows 22-25-300-4-0 - that is a wow! Exactly the kind of game Cat fans want to see with bigger playoff games on the horizon. Very selective running by him and some just get out of bounds round. Smart.
Abilene - North Dakota was a fun game. Pretty close too. After ACU led 17-3, NDSU got the momentum back immediately with the KO ret TD. Bison got up 34-17, but ACU got back within 10 to keep things interesting. Was just a 10 pt game with 4 minutes left and NDSU won by 20 because of back-to-back INTs from ACU resulted in a FG drive netting 3y and a pick-six by the Bison. And ACU was SOD at their own 15 with under 2min to go, NDSU did run 1 play then took knees. A good passing game and especially one with some balance can get this NDSU D.
Davis wins comfortably after falling behind early. Illinois State was pretty hot to start. But once Davis got their footing on both sides of the ball it was tough for Ill St. Weird 2H. Went Over opening numbers, should've been more points. 2H Ill St had three drives into the RZ result in 0 pts. The only reason it went over even the opening total is because Ill St was SOD at their own 32 late and Davis was trying to get this one player a TD. Ill St started keying on them down near the goal line so Hastings threw it on 3rd down to another guy who made a great catch. Hastings passed for 400y with a 3-0 ratio, great game for him to close out his career at home.
I think Lehigh played as good as they possibly could've. The final score seems pretty fair even though the Lehigh TD was kind of cheap at the end, against the Idaho backups on D, Lehigh had their starters in (QB was early season starter and a 5th year). Going to be a lot harder going forward, but I think we saw the potential that Idaho has passing with Layne and how it might make a rematch vs Montana State different. I doubt it changes in terms of who wins or loses, but I do believe it will matter in terms of competitiveness.
There will be one playoff game next Friday night. As of right now it is TBA. ESPN always loves NDSU home games, but not sure if Mercer is an attractive enough matchup. Davis at South Dakota might be the closest game, but it lacks appeal. They already aired Idaho at Montana State earlier in the year on ESPN or ESPN2. I think they will choose Incarnate Word at South Dakota State for the Friday game, another rematch. Incarnate Word actually was in that game for a full 3Q. Think UIW had some complaints about the refs, and UIW had some bad penalties whether the refs were favoring SDSU or not. Could be a good one. Wonder what the weather will be?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Starting to feel the gears of life shifting. And have a family Christmas party Friday night.
Been a great year, thanks to everyone who participated in the FCS threads and I am happy to have the forum as my worksheet on these games. I will be watching all the games and around here in the thread, just less active, because, there is less activity to post about. It is funny how in every sport I have ever followed, as it climaxes to it's championship conclusion, my interest fades.
Been a great year, thanks to everyone who participated in the FCS threads and I am happy to have the forum as my worksheet on these games. I will be watching all the games and around here in the thread, just less active, because, there is less activity to post about. It is funny how in every sport I have ever followed, as it climaxes to it's championship conclusion, my interest fades.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Good morning friends.
That game last night, thought we were going to get a good one for about 20 minutes. The onside kick that went 2 yards, the fumble caused by Idaho's own OL, the 60+y Mellott run right before HT, that game unraveled from a 10-10 back-forth game to a blowout over the course of the final 8 minutes of the 2Q. Montana State is a beast!
Something exciting, Bovada had player props for last night's game! I had Layne Ov 205.5 As of right now I do not see that offered yet for today's game. Good sign of potential things to come though.
Pretty big move to go from JSU -3.5 to SC State -3.5. Getting lazier in my approach of these games and less fundamental, I wonder what the long layoff of 3 weeks will present for SC State, but at the same time after seeing the outpouring of emotion from JSU winning the SWAC Title last week also makes me wonder what their mental state is coming off that high. Tough game to figure. Hopefully some live options. JSU also had two QBs injured in that one, think one or both will play. SC State had QB injured in season finale, think he plays too. Last year's Celebration Bowl was pretty great, this one should be too.
Edit - actually there are player props for today's game. A whole new world!
That game last night, thought we were going to get a good one for about 20 minutes. The onside kick that went 2 yards, the fumble caused by Idaho's own OL, the 60+y Mellott run right before HT, that game unraveled from a 10-10 back-forth game to a blowout over the course of the final 8 minutes of the 2Q. Montana State is a beast!
Something exciting, Bovada had player props for last night's game! I had Layne Ov 205.5 As of right now I do not see that offered yet for today's game. Good sign of potential things to come though.
Pretty big move to go from JSU -3.5 to SC State -3.5. Getting lazier in my approach of these games and less fundamental, I wonder what the long layoff of 3 weeks will present for SC State, but at the same time after seeing the outpouring of emotion from JSU winning the SWAC Title last week also makes me wonder what their mental state is coming off that high. Tough game to figure. Hopefully some live options. JSU also had two QBs injured in that one, think one or both will play. SC State had QB injured in season finale, think he plays too. Last year's Celebration Bowl was pretty great, this one should be too.
Edit - actually there are player props for today's game. A whole new world!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Bovada has them for the Celebration Bowl and the UIW-SDSU game. Many states do not offer college player props, so it would only be at the offshores in most cases.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
That stop inside the 10 hurt my over but the way they are playing, maybe the Jacks can get 56 on their own to push it over
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
This is the 1st week they've run commercials or had own announcers at the d2 playoffs.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
21-0 Jackrabbits
Need UIW to get a score on next drive to keep over in play or Jackrabbits will be in grind it out mode in 2H
Need UIW to get a score on next drive to keep over in play or Jackrabbits will be in grind it out mode in 2H
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like announcers that have regular jobs Monday-Friday instead
carolinablue
College Football Guru
SDSU might be good for 42 as they are looking sharp on offense outside of the early fumble
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Yeah. The 1st 3 weeks were just radio pbp fed thru the live feed. Much better.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
UIW looks deflated at this point
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Huge potential swing with the INT but they gotta get in the end zone
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Horrible play calling. Hate shotgun on 4th and inches
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Both UIW's 4th downs have been QB run and Idaho did it last night too with their backup QB. All 3 plays stopped. I understand that coaches think their guys can execute blocks and create the space for the QB, but the reality is going against Montana State D and South Dakota State D - Eck and Killough must realize their teams are at a disadvantage in that situation. But they call plays that stand little success of working. Coaches do this often
carolinablue
College Football Guru
The UIW play calls have been too gimmicky as they are taking so long to develop. They are having success but then try to get too cute with the play calls leading to drives stalling out. Solid game plan out of the gate but once the wheels came off it looks like they were shell shocked.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Counting on 56-0 at this point to hit my over 55.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Live line is -40.5/55.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
My other two overs looking solid so far in the UCD and Mercer games.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Round 3 in the books.
Off week for me, which I could feel coming as my head and heart has fallen out of the groove. I did watch it all today and most last night and I will see it through til it's end. Some random Army-Navy game wagers were worthwhile.
Definitely have the 4 best teams left now, which is rather of obvious. Still surprised how the Idaho - Montana State game ended up last night, just totally unraveled in the second half of the 2nd Q and it was finished from there. I thought that one had the pieces to make a competitive game.
Competitive games is not what we got much of. UC Davis was kind of in the game all day, kind of, but not really. It was more of a question who would cover vs who would actually win. Sucks that Larison got hurt. I played a Larison TD prop after they lowered the price. That lost with his injury, but just hate to see a guy's fantastic college career end on the sideline. They did bring him in as a decoy on a 4th down TD late in the game. South Dakota has faced the best offenses so far in the playoffs vs Tarleton and UC Davis. I still believe their D is pretty close to the best around even though the scores in their playoff games indicate otherwise.
Might've hoped that UIW would hang with SDSU as they did back in September, but that was not to be. Have to look at the stats, pretty sure at one point Calzada was close to having more rush attempts than pass completions, like real rush attempts, not just scrambles from pass rush. He's decent runner and makes their offense better, but his arm is more valuable than his legs to their cause.
Mercer was not only the weakest O left in the playoffs, but on balance were one of the weakest Os overall in the playoffs to begin with. That was on display today. Their team was all about that D.
Kind of boring day from a football standpoint. Not much to say as my mind is getting occupied by other interests. Next week's games should be pretty awesome, I'm sure I will care by the time they roll around.
Off week for me, which I could feel coming as my head and heart has fallen out of the groove. I did watch it all today and most last night and I will see it through til it's end. Some random Army-Navy game wagers were worthwhile.
Definitely have the 4 best teams left now, which is rather of obvious. Still surprised how the Idaho - Montana State game ended up last night, just totally unraveled in the second half of the 2nd Q and it was finished from there. I thought that one had the pieces to make a competitive game.
Competitive games is not what we got much of. UC Davis was kind of in the game all day, kind of, but not really. It was more of a question who would cover vs who would actually win. Sucks that Larison got hurt. I played a Larison TD prop after they lowered the price. That lost with his injury, but just hate to see a guy's fantastic college career end on the sideline. They did bring him in as a decoy on a 4th down TD late in the game. South Dakota has faced the best offenses so far in the playoffs vs Tarleton and UC Davis. I still believe their D is pretty close to the best around even though the scores in their playoff games indicate otherwise.
Might've hoped that UIW would hang with SDSU as they did back in September, but that was not to be. Have to look at the stats, pretty sure at one point Calzada was close to having more rush attempts than pass completions, like real rush attempts, not just scrambles from pass rush. He's decent runner and makes their offense better, but his arm is more valuable than his legs to their cause.
Mercer was not only the weakest O left in the playoffs, but on balance were one of the weakest Os overall in the playoffs to begin with. That was on display today. Their team was all about that D.
Kind of boring day from a football standpoint. Not much to say as my mind is getting occupied by other interests. Next week's games should be pretty awesome, I'm sure I will care by the time they roll around.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Brutal 2Hs in terns of my overs as turnovers and stalled drives killed the flow but it happens. Curious to see lines for next week as I plan to have plays on both.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I would be inclined to play Montana state and sdsu at positive money but I prefer going the spread and total route
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just catching up but I saw a couple days ago that Mater Dei opened up -41 lol
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Montana State and SDSU would be my initial thoughts if 6.5 or less. May bite on the dogs if DD. Haven’t looked at any sources so have no idea where these will open so just throwing this out there.
steponaduck
Pretty much a regular
I would need +13.5 to take USD here on the road in a spot they have never been.
Would lean jacks/bison under akin to first meeting.
Would lean jacks/bison under akin to first meeting.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Interesting you think Bison will be favored considering the difference on price on SDSU with the futures market
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I think Montana State could be 9.5/10.5 and SDSU will be road fav at least 3.5/4.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Took Montana state -6.5 115
Now at 118
Now at 118
Similar threads
- Sticky
