Holy Cross has played two very close and emotional games that weren't decided until late. Week 1 saw 2 lead changes in the final minute and last week HC lost the lead in the 4Q and couldn't come back. They ran well on URI, couldn't run on UNH. Couldn't pass much on URI, but did pass it all over vs UNH. So they've shown they both can and can't do those things. They should be able to both run and pass, even though Sluka is gone, their QB Pesansky got experience last year and they still have Fuller at RB. They've been bad on 3rd down in both games. I think they can get the win at Bryant because Bryant is struggling, but I'm not interested in laying any kind of number on the road with them. -7 or -13.5 are the projected PR lines from Sagarin and Massey.
That feels like a lot of points for Idaho to cover. Their D has been outstanding. Their O has not, but they've played Oregon and Wyoming so that is understandable to a point. Vandals have converted 12.2% of their 3rd downs on offense this year! And their #2 QB got knocked out of the Wyoming game. I heard he should be ok to play here, Wagner, I would want to verify. #1 Lynch is already out. This is a huge revenge game as Albany beat them in the Kibbie dome playoffs last year. Last year's Albany team to this year is about as apples - oranges as you can get. Still over 2 TDs for an offensively limited team...it feels like a lot of points. Idaho was 6-5 ATS as a fav last year, 3-4 ATS as a 2 TD or less fav. Not an automatic cover vs teams they were supposed to beat. Same D, worse O this year. Albany is all different, except their OL and running game which didn't get on track week 1 vs LIU nor last week at WVU. Their O should get better every week one would think with the new QB and receivers. WR Jacari Carter was supposed to be the splash WR, but Seven McGee has had a bigger impact so far. As it goes their receivers should be fine, it all comes down to how well Burkett plays. Defensively, the expecations are low for the Danes, I don't know much about them honestly. Idaho is essentially on the 3rd string QB from last year, Wagner, with last year's #2 becoming this year's #1, Layne, out from the Oregon game. The price is too high for me on Idaho, but I definitely would take them to win. But on the line, I'd rather take the points if I was playing it.
Idaho State is playing Kobe Tracey at QB, Utah Tech transfer. Think they want to redshirt Cooke who was last year's starter. QB is going to put numbers in this system and Tracey is capable. Idaho State showed some flashes of potential last year under Cody Hawkins. Coach Dan Hawkins is on this staff too, or an analyist or something. Last year they played Davis tough. Upset wins vs E Wash and Port State, I know, but they were DD dogs in both of those. Then they also got blown out a few times. Defense was not their specialty. Don't know much on their team this year. Likely taking another step forward to being competitive with the rest of the Big Sky teams they historically got blown out by. Seemed like they hung tough at Oregon State week 1 and then played West Oregon last week and they did what you'd expect there. This spread at North Dakota has about moved a full TD from open at 17 or 17.5 it was. Bobby Hauck asked what North Dakota did last week in the 2H he said just "a bunch of 4 yard gains". And that is all they needed. Knowing Idaho State's D has we have, it is hard to see them getting many stops. The UND QB has not been great this year - Romfo 11-24-97-0-1 last week vs Montana. He does offer running capability which helps. Funny thing, in 2018 when UND beat #5 Sam Houston and in 2019 when UND beat #12 UC Davis, the next week they played Idaho State and Bengals beat them both years! In hindsight I would've loved to have some +17.5, but I didn't know what I wanted when that line came out. I'm not going to lay the chalk either though even at the lower number. Could see a close game, just having passed on all the good numbers as it moved on down, hard for me to come in on it now.
I guess I kind of like Jackson State, but do envision a low scoring game as the total suggests it will be. Best part of the Southern team remains their D, especially the front 7. If they have a vulnerablility on D it is the back end. Southern's O is kind of an unknown, new HC and new OC. Their backup QB from last year Bodden was in line to be the guy this year, but he was benched in the 1H when they were trailing Savannah State and they inserted a rFr QB Teasett and he went the rest of the way. The OL doesn't look that good. The Southern O was pretty bad vs McNeese, that was with Bodden at QB though. Jackson should be the better team, maybe Southern has better DL and LB players, but Jackson would get the nod all around otherwise and I'd expect them to win. Suppose I wasn't as impressed with Jackson from week 1 as I thought I would be so I haven't rushed to play them here, but if I were to take somebody here, I would be more likely to lay it with Jackson.
Huge line for Lafayette home vs Marist. I can't lay that and doubt I have any interest in Marist. First layup game for Lafayette this year. They won a couple games by 34 and 28 last year, this is a tall task at -30.5. New team for Marist. They had some good energy on D in game 1 last week vs Georgetown. Their O couldn't do much and I wouldn't expect them to do much vs Lafayette either.
Missouri State must be really disappointed in how their season has started. Played Montana really tough week 1 and I'm sure they had to think they could win that game last week and Ball State just pulled away from them in the 2H and it felt more like a 2 score game than a 1 score 7 pt game it was. Ball State outgained them by 115y and converted a ton of 3rd downs on them, 63%, ran the ball well (173 4.2) and were 72% completions for 262y passing. So Missouri State is either pissed off or self doubt may be creaping in. One would think Lindenwood provides a good opponent to take out some frustrations on. Last time Lindenwood played a MVFC team it was at Illinois STate last year and it was close for a half (20-14 HT) but Ill St won 48-17 with a 207 yard edge. Lindenwood has allowed over 500y in 2 games this year (UCA and Kansas) and been outscored 82-16 and outgained by about 300 ypg. Somehow the UCA game was strangely kind of close. UCA didn't get ahead of the 20.5 pt spread until 3 min left and they only covered by 1/2 pt. UCA did outgain them by 554-258 (-296y) but Lindenwood actually kicked a couple of short FGs form the 3 and 16 yard lines leaving me to think they were in position for more points than they ultimately finished with. I don't really like the idea of laying 24.5 with Missouri State, but vs obviously inferior teams they did hammer Utah Tech at home last year 59-14 (-13) and at Western Ill 48-7 (-17), but then played a close one vs Murray 28-24 (-19.5). So I think that is the way I would go.
I like Monmouth this week. Defense this year, as it was last year, will be a concern with them. But here they travel to Maine and they have Maine's former multi-year QB and he is putting up some really strong numbers as Monmouth QBs have done before him. Monmouth got off to a slow start on the red turf in Cheney week 1, but did finish that game strong (came from 28 down to lose just by 15) and last week was a barn burner vs Lafayette. Monmouth blew a late lead and lost 35-40. On the year they are averaging over 7 yard per play and have posted 429 and 439 total yards in their games this year and Robertson has passed for 390 in each with a good % a 7-3 ratio. Maine might look like they played respectable at Montana State but they really did not. They trailed by 31 at HT and got 220 of their yards and 17 pts in the 2H vs Montana State's backups. Maybe that served as good practice for them, but I haven't been high on Maine this year as I played Colgate against them week 1. Maine may've been the better team there, but not by much. They didn't play last year. This could be a short fav spot either way. Monmouth played in close games on the CAA road last year competing closely with William and Mary, Elon and beating Towson - better teams than Maine.
Mercer at Chattanooga is another tough game. Mercer has new staff and a lot of new players on offense, but many of their defensive players off a good D unit stayed. They have played such a weak opening schedule vs Presbyterian and Bethune Cookman it is really hard to know what they have. I do think their D is good, maybe not allowed 12 pts all year good, but good. Vs those teams they have turned in 25 TFLs! It is the offense that I am unsure of. Chattanooga is just the opposite. They traveled to play Tennessee and Georgia State last week. So they've challenged themselves vs better teams and better players. That may pay off here, but if the Mercer D is in fact good like I think it is, game could be struggle for them. I suspect that the UTC D is going to be good enough to slow a Mercer O as well. Under 48.5 doesn't sound awful. First respectable D new Mercer O has played. UTC used to playing tough Ds in the FBS. Game was 22-10 last year for a UTC win on the road as a 1 pt dog on a 51.5 pt total. UTC outgained them 351-280 (4.9-4.7). Mercer -3 TOs. Teams were in the RZ 8x and only combined for 2 TDs down there. UTC kicked 5 FGs. Not really sure. Lean Under, but don't necessarily want it.
Not really sure about this Mercyhurst team. Beat Wheeling 28-25 then trailed Howard 3-21 yet took a 31-27 lead with :41. Well that became 31-29 after the xpt was blk'd and ran back which allowed Howard to make a walk-off FG and win by 1. I don't know. Robert Morris lost to Edinboro and never looked like the better team at any point. Maybe all that attention over the highlight INT at Utah State distracted them. They only put up 224 (4.6) total yards last week! They basically lost on a safety after Edinboro downed a punt in the 4Q at the 1 and then got a safety to win by 2. I'd pick Robert Morris to win, but I think the line is going to be 10-15 and I don't know these teams to say really.
Murray State is over a 2 TD favorite against somebody, kind of funny. That somebody is Mississippi Valley who everyone is mutliple TDs favored over. Valley is 1-0-1 by my count ATS this year though so no money to be made fading them thus far. Murray just lost to Butler as a 10 pt home fav and they were outgained by 200 yards! So they have some work to do. Can't really see how they are favored by this many, but I don't bet Mississippi Valley like ever.
Did take Montana, never went into why and don't really know why. Just feel pretty good that Griz are going to pound a bad team, first bad team they have got to play. QBs should perform. OL should move people, running game should produce. D should smoother and somebody will score a nonoffensive TD or two. Huge step up for Morehead State as they have opened this season with two Dll teams. Morehead had a couple bad losses last year, like losing at Tarleton 0-42 and vs Butler 7-49. Griz can do that or better. Off a loss, should be a focused group. They do have Western Carolina on deck. They have kind of co-#1 QBs so if they sit one with a lead, the other should keep the offense moving.
Last year New Hampshire was -21 at Stonehill week 1 and they jumped on them 37-10 HT going on to win 51-17. This may be a pretty good UNH team, we will find out, played pretty well last week. I'm afraid this line may be too high to turn me off. Stonehill was +10 last week at Stony Brook and SB won big, but Stonehill did accumulate yards just didn't cash in for points, so this is not an inept team. I'm sure this line will be atleast 20 and I don't know if I want that or not. Not sure I trust the new QB yet, how the offense operates yet. HC did gain 388 (6.5) on UNH D last week.
Another Big Sky - Southland game I'm not sure what to do with is Nicholls - Sac State. I started out likeing Sac State's potential this year. But D is still a liability and offense is very inconsistent and turnovers turnovers turnovers - 5 vs San Jose and 3 vs Fresno. They did gain 3 each in those games as well. Poor completion %, just 50% in both. I got burned kind of partially on Nicholls week 1 vs LaTech, covered some lines, lost some lines and lost my ML on them which I had a pretty good feeling about pregame. And they didn't play well there, so it makes one gun shy to call on them again so soon. Then they come out, have some 13 play drives on LSU, busted a big run and scored double what I would've expected they could at LSU last week. Offense was significantly better than they were at LaTech. Go figure! Now Sac State's defensive nature being what it is, that could be opportunity for Nicholls. I have seen McQuade be so up and down though. I don't know which is harder to trust, McQuade and the Nicholls O or Sac State? Both aren't consistent in any way. Just a hunch, something tells me that Nicholls is a tigher group and better coached, more stable. I would not be surprised to see Nicholls win this outright as 9.5 pt dogs. Playing LSU the way they did, the improvement over week 1 has to give them some belief they can be the team they want to be. Sac State lose two FBS games to instate California schools when they probably had realistic ideas this summer they could beat one or both of them. Home opener, so can't really call it a let down spot for them, off those two particular games it does feel a litlte like it is. Weird scheduling quirk, this is Sac State's only home game until 10/12.
