Playoffs in the FCS

Leaning Illinois State, Nova and URI as far as potential dog plays go, as I wouldn’t be surprised by any or all three pulling off the SU win. Thoughts?
 
carolinablue said:
Leaning Illinois State, Nova and URI as far as potential dog plays go, as I wouldn’t be surprised by any or all three pulling off the SU win. Thoughts?
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I have Davis and am a little nervous about it. There are certain things I don't like much about Illinois State, their defense, their conventional running game on offense. QB Rittenhouse has had a really nice year in his first as the full time starter, him as a runner and their passing game I think gives them a chance vs most teams and Davis is probably one of those teams. I do have a pretty good opinion of Davis on the roster and outlook. But I do not think that either Illinois State or Davis are close to same level as the top seeds, even though Davis is pretty close to the top seeds in number. They were down by 3 TDs mid 4Q at home vs Montana State and it took a near miracle for them to score 20 pts in 6-1/2 minute span to create the perception of that game being close. Even at 30-8 before the comeback, that is respectable enough I suppose vs a top team because if you compare Illinois State's games vs the best teams (like NDSU) they were embarrassed at home by the Bison. So on the field, vs the best competition, neither was to that level. And Davis had some WTF games vs bad teams; Portland St - should've lost, Sac State could've lost - now both those games were off of huge emotional games, the Idaho win and the Montana State failed comeback, so it could be said that they didn't move on from those prior games and it effected the performance vs Portland State and Sac State. Always hard to say. I played the Davis ML, but if I was going to take that game with the spread I would be tempted to take Illinois State on the now higher spread, what 9.5? Both defenses could give up some plays and the team that wins will probably come down to which QB plays better. I still like Davis to win, just don't know by how much. Total was 51.5 for a while where an Over kind of made sense. Been bet up to 54.5 now.

It is hard to really like Villanova, but while not liking them can still acknowledge that they aren't a bad team, they just haven't played to their potential, literally all year, even the wins that look good have some 'yeah but' aspect within them. So all those close games and failures as a favorite tends to create a perception they aren't good. They are good, they just aren't that good, they win, they have good players. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs, so maybe that is the difference, expecting them to perform as a favorite and win by margin, this team just can't do that. But they have won games, have the pieces to make it happen. Just something has been off and missing from their team all year long. If Incarnate Word has a good game, maybe it looks a little like the Nova-Monmouth game where Nova lost 33-40? Monmouth did end the game at the V02 after a 6 minute clock killing drive, so that contributes to a 174 yardage deficit despite only losing by 7. Nova was favored in that game, having them with the ability to lose the game and still cover makes them a little interesting to me. I liked UIW early/mid season, then their lines got too high and I mostly abandoned playing on them, except for the SFA game, which Calzada was almost trying to lose single handedly. I'm not sure I trust UIW to cover, now a 10 pt line. Villanova probably comparable to SLU and SFA who UIW struggled with. So taking Nova with the pts...I did play the UIW ML at open (-200) but also took a small piece of Nova +7.5. I may come back here and take some +10.

I can not support a play on Rhode Island. Now, Mercer only had one bad FCS game all year, the Samford game. Samford had 28 pts off TOs inwhich their offense only contributed a total of 41y - so I throw that game out, turnover fest. Mercer run D is strong. Mercer pass D gives up yards, but here is the thing, they don't give up a high completion percentage and they get lots of INTs and if that D gets their hands on the ball they can score. There have been times that the Mercer D and ST has outscored the Mercer O. I would not want to play against Mercer with a weak QB and that is what Rhode Island has in Hunter Helms. Helms has 8 INTs in just 138 pass attempts this year. He was the backup all year until the starter got hurt, so that is why he is starting, not because he is good and was once at Clemson. Rhode Island is worse with him at QB and really, QB has been a weakness of this team all year. They have a pretty good team, but I think their QB play holds them back. Rhodes Island is a DD win team but they could've lost any number of CAA games (Albany, Mommouth, Hampton, Long Island). I guess in a way they are similar to Villanova, they are both CAA teams and have both been rather unimpressive in large parts of most of their games. The difference is the Mercer D vs URI O. Now, Mercer O? They have grown a lot. 500+yards in 3 of their last 4 FCS games. QB play is a little uncertain depending who plays (Smith who has been injured off and on or the Freshman Newbauer who has gotten better). Out of these three games, I would be most surprised if the dog won straight up in this one.
 
s--k said:
I have Davis and am a little nervous about it. There are certain things I don't like much about Illinois State, their defense, their conventional running game on offense. QB Rittenhouse has had a really nice year in his first as the full time starter, him as a runner and their passing game I think gives them a chance vs most teams and Davis is probably one of those teams. I do have a pretty good opinion of Davis on the roster and outlook. But I do not think that either Illinois State or Davis are close to same level as the top seeds, even though Davis is pretty close to the top seeds in number. They were down by 3 TDs mid 4Q at home vs Montana State and it took a near miracle for them to score 20 pts in 6-1/2 minute span to create the perception of that game being close. Even at 30-8 before the comeback, that is respectable enough I suppose vs a top team because if you compare Illinois State's games vs the best teams (like NDSU) they were embarrassed at home by the Bison. So on the field, vs the best competition, neither was to that level. And Davis had some WTF games vs bad teams; Portland St - should've lost, Sac State could've lost - now both those games were off of huge emotional games, the Idaho win and the Montana State failed comeback, so it could be said that they didn't move on from those prior games and it effected the performance vs Portland State and Sac State. Always hard to say. I played the Davis ML, but if I was going to take that game with the spread I would be tempted to take Illinois State on the now higher spread, what 9.5? Both defenses could give up some plays and the team that wins will probably come down to which QB plays better. I still like Davis to win, just don't know by how much. Total was 51.5 for a while where an Over kind of made sense. Been bet up to 54.5 now.

It is hard to really like Villanova, but while not liking them can still acknowledge that they aren't a bad team, they just haven't played to their potential, literally all year, even the wins that look good have some 'yeah but' aspect within them. So all those close games and failures as a favorite tends to create a perception they aren't good. They are good, they just aren't that good, they win, they have good players. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs, so maybe that is the difference, expecting them to perform as a favorite and win by margin, this team just can't do that. But they have won games, have the pieces to make it happen. Just something has been off and missing from their team all year long. If Incarnate Word has a good game, maybe it looks a little like the Nova-Monmouth game where Nova lost 33-40? Monmouth did end the game at the V02 after a 6 minute clock killing drive, so that contributes to a 174 yardage deficit despite only losing by 7. Nova was favored in that game, having them with the ability to lose the game and still cover makes them a little interesting to me. I liked UIW early/mid season, then their lines got too high and I mostly abandoned playing on them, except for the SFA game, which Calzada was almost trying to lose single handedly. I'm not sure I trust UIW to cover, now a 10 pt line. Villanova probably comparable to SLU and SFA who UIW struggled with. So taking Nova with the pts...I did play the UIW ML at open (-200) but also took a small piece of Nova +7.5. I may come back here and take some +10.

I can not support a play on Rhode Island. Now, Mercer only had one bad FCS game all year, the Samford game. Samford had 28 pts off TOs inwhich their offense only contributed a total of 41y - so I throw that game out, turnover fest. Mercer run D is strong. Mercer pass D gives up yards, but here is the thing, they don't give up a high completion percentage and they get lots of INTs and if that D gets their hands on the ball they can score. There have been times that the Mercer D and ST has outscored the Mercer O. I would not want to play against Mercer with a weak QB and that is what Rhode Island has in Hunter Helms. Helms has 8 INTs in just 138 pass attempts this year. He was the backup all year until the starter got hurt, so that is why he is starting, not because he is good and was once at Clemson. Rhode Island is worse with him at QB and really, QB has been a weakness of this team all year. They have a pretty good team, but I think their QB play holds them back. Rhodes Island is a DD win team but they could've lost any number of CAA games (Albany, Mommouth, Hampton, Long Island). I guess in a way they are similar to Villanova, they are both CAA teams and have both been rather unimpressive in large parts of most of their games. The difference is the Mercer D vs URI O. Now, Mercer O? They have grown a lot. 500+yards in 3 of their last 4 FCS games. QB play is a little uncertain depending who plays (Smith who has been injured off and on or the Freshman Newbauer who has gotten better). Out of these three games, I would be most surprised if the dog won straight up in this one.
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Ended up taking overs with Illinois State game and ACU game as I think both dogs put up a fight and the favs should put up plenty of points.
 
Really enjoy your write-ups, s--k.
Would you say Idaho -14 is the best bet this week?
Good luck my friend.
 
oakas said:
Really enjoy your write-ups, s--k.
Would you say Idaho -14 is the best bet this week?
Good luck my friend.
Click to expand...

I hesitate to ever call a game a best bet, I just hope to win 3 or 4 out of 5 on the spread, whichever 3 or 4 those are.

I laid the 490 on their ML and took -13.5. I wouldn't say that I am worried, but it opened 13.5 went to 14 or 14.5 and then some places came back down to 13.5. So the fact that somebody is betting enough Lehigh to make the line come back down is interesting. Perhaps they are considering Idaho's playoff performance under Eck, 0-3 ATS and just 1-2 SU. In 2022 they should've had a home game vs SLU but decided to go on the road because of the murders and lost. Then last year they squeaked out a 3 pt OT win as a 5 pt home fav over SIU and then lost to Albany by 8 the next week as a 4.5 pt home fav. So if one is overly weighing their recent post season performance that might influence some.

For me those things really don't matter. Every year and every team is different. Sometimes there are some things to draw from on the past, but I think it is more important to look at current variables. Idaho hasn't been fully healthy most of the year, at QB, at OL, at RB, on DL, in the secondary. And they made it 9-3 with an FBS win, a tough close loss to Oregon, beat ACU on the road who is also in the second round of the playoffs, and lost a game at Davis that I know Idaho fans would like to have back. I think they are pretty good and with time to rest and heel we should get their best today.

We will need their best because they have only won by more than 10 pts twice this year (hosting Albany and at Idaho State - pretty flawed teams). The Cal Poly and E Wash games they should've won by more I'd say. A few games they led by a good amount and let the other team come back a little (that happened vs ACU too). So this again, might be factoring into some people taking the points on Lehigh.

I look at how that Lehigh Richmond game started...Richmond could've or should've led that game 21-0, 24-0 1H. Instead it was 9-0. I really don't want to call Lehigh weak, but I think them playing one of the best Big Sky teams is going to be a challenge for them both offensively and defensively. While Idaho has played a bunch of teams that are kinda on par and most better. This is the best team Lehigh has played since opening at Army week 1.

So I don't know about best bet, but hopefully a winning one regardless.
 
I'm operating away from home for the second weekend this year, which is ok, but isn't ideal. I hope to be back an hour or two before the first game and I will be able to watch just 2 at a time instead of my normal 8. But that's ok. Schedule has 8 games overlapping counting the SWAC title, where I took Southern +14.5 without any justification, I just liked the number. So that may games happening at once when we could have more in the evening sucks. FCS needs better scheduling layout. See you guys in a few hours.
 
Second week in a row the only FCS game that MB offers is the only SWAC game on the schedule. CPA said he was cashing out last week, looks like it is time for me to do the same. Kind of disappointing that for me, two offshore outlets I enjoyed using are no longer either available or producing lines. Will have to see what MB does next year I guess. It is very nice to once again see BM offering 1H options with their buying pts and Bovada has always been a good secondary book for me. I placed one bet at BOL who I don't really like, but I keep a small balance there for one-off type plays.

Are there any other good offshores for FCS?
 
Dumb bet but I'm starting my SDST ML rollover today

Barring upsets this should return more than +185

1733594595574.png
 
Looks like people been buying Rhode Island. Seeing a 7.5 out there
 
sleepy said:
Dumb bet but I'm starting my SDST ML rollover today

Barring upsets this should return more than +185

View attachment 91277
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You are figuring the next 3 games or also the title game? Hope it works out for you til Frisco. I have some futures on that side of the bracket. Would be cool to see the Jacks in the title game going for a 3-peat.

Think I heard Mark Gronowski can break the Dl all-time win record this post season, projecting out, believe it would come vs NDSU. Jared Zabrasky from Boise has the record now?
 
s--k said:
Second week in a row the only FCS game that MB offers is the only SWAC game on the schedule. CPA said he was cashing out last week, looks like it is time for me to do the same. Kind of disappointing that for me, two offshore outlets I enjoyed using are no longer either available or producing lines. Will have to see what MB does next year I guess. It is very nice to once again see BM offering 1H options with their buying pts and Bovada has always been a good secondary book for me. I placed one bet at BOL who I don't really like, but I keep a small balance there for one-off type plays.

Are there any other good offshores for FCS?
Click to expand...
I got rid of all of mine due to limiting (dropped BOL because of deposit headaches at start of season) as BM is the only left standing for me as far as offshores go
 
MyBookie does have FCS odds. They are under an FCS drop down menu instead of grouped with all the other FBS games like they had before

Screenshot 2024-12-07 at 13-16-15 MyBookie - Sports Home.png
 
carolinablue said:
Any thoughts on Montana state now down to 16.5?
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I have Montana State at 15.5, 16.5 and the ML. I do want to see the UT Martin front play vs the run here. I expect MSU wins that matchup, but pretty good UT Martin D I just want to see how it plays out. I really do not think that UT Martin O stands much of a chance.
 
Downward movement on NDSU could be indicator McIvor is playing for ACU. I am hopeful that ACU makes a game of that one
 
s--k said:
I have Montana State at 15.5, 16.5 and the ML. I do want to see the UT Martin front play vs the run here. I expect MSU wins that matchup, but pretty good UT Martin D I just want to see how it plays out. I really do not think that UT Martin O stands much of a chance.
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Yeah similar line of thought. Actually considered the over but could see 35-10 type game as I’m not sure UTM will pull their weight towards the over. Thinking of not overthinking it and adding Montana State 16.5 and Idaho 13.5 as I think both are more likely to go back up than down. Best of luck today man!
 
carolinablue said:
I got rid of all of mine due to limiting (dropped BOL because of deposit headaches at start of season) as BM is the only left standing for me as far as offshores go
Click to expand...

The only places I could consistently make large wagers on FCS games was at the window.

The apps rec books limit quickly

Then there are a lot of rec books that put the odds up so late that you never get a good number
 
s--k said:
Second week in a row the only FCS game that MB offers is the only SWAC game on the schedule. CPA said he was cashing out last week, looks like it is time for me to do the same. Kind of disappointing that for me, two offshore outlets I enjoyed using are no longer either available or producing lines. Will have to see what MB does next year I guess. It is very nice to once again see BM offering 1H options with their buying pts and Bovada has always been a good secondary book for me. I placed one bet at BOL who I don't really like, but I keep a small balance there for one-off type plays.

Are there any other good offshores for FCS?
Click to expand...

No they had all the FCS games. It's on a separate menu. Sorry i should have posted this.
 
They just didn't intermingle them just the Jackson St. Confusing I know but they were actually up last night.
 
sleepy said:
The only places I could consistently make large wagers on FCS games was at the window.

The apps rec books limit quickly

Then there are a lot of rec books that put the odds up so late that you never get a good number
Click to expand...
I have been lucky with FD as they haven’t given me any issues and I withdraw every Sunday like clockwork. DK cut me off early on and I gave them another go but they started playing games with limits and I don’t like being able to get down on one and then being limited to something random like 42.13 on another.
 
I may try splitting it 4 ways as more games come on, but I am like you, I don't like that many small rectangles so closely together
 
Mercer punt coverage men just watched URI catch the ball and run away from them
 
s--k said:
I may try splitting it 4 ways as more games come on, but I am like you, I don't like that many small rectangles so closely together
Click to expand...
I have a new 110” screen with projector but even that can’t keep me focused. I prefer one game across the whole thing but sometimes do the 3 or 4
 
Montana started the wrong QB today. Hauck can really screw up a QB situation. I'm going to really try and enjoy Gronowski the playoff, he's an all-time winner
 
90y ACU TD run :00 1Q is a big boost to an Over that looked a little rough after long possessions to start the game
 
Looks like I got dealt a game over with South Dakota

Best defense in the FCS can't get a stop
 
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