carolinablue
College Football Guru
Will be on SDSU but may take ML
Playoffs in the FCS
- Thread starter s--k
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
Took ML 140
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Game was even. NDSU went on a 92y game winning drive. SDSU was a short favorite in that game too
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Montana State now -9.5
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Ivy League to participate in FCS playoffs in 2025
In a dramatic shift, the Ivy League's football teams are now going to be able to compete for FCS national championships.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Ivy League to participate in FCS playoffs in 2025
In a dramatic shift, the Ivy League's football teams are now going to be able to compete for FCS national championships.www.espn.com
It seems a lot of people will be happy about that. Not like a lot of people report on the FCS, but among the few that do many were very vocal and almost angry that Ivy League did not participate in the playoffs. Don't know why these people cared, almost as if they wouldn't even discuss or rank Ivy teams because they had decided they wanted to do their own thing. Me being me, I 100% like anybody or anything thing (conference) doing their own things for their own reasons. I actually would prefer they do as they always have, but I can't be upset or happy either way, it just is what it is. They can do what they want.
I do wonder these people who so wanted the Ivy to be in the playoff, they are going to take away another spot from teams that these same people always be upset are left out, well, now there will be 1 more team that might be deserving left out because move-over 24 team field, Ivy Champ taking a spot now.
To me, it will be about on par with the Patriot League champion or maybe a good NEC champ. This may even weaken the Ivy League's reputation as they will probably always be a one-and-done type team, maybe win one game and out in the second round at best.
Ivy League shares their titles, 2, 3 or 4 ways. Story says they will figure a way to break the ties - this year Harvard beat Columbia and Dartmouth head-to-head, yet they still shared the title 3-ways. Columbia won a share of the title for the first time since 1968. Seems to me if they send Harvard on to the playoff that everyone knows they are the real champ and Columbia celebrating a share of the title is pretty hollow at that point. I don't know. Just not sure this is actually a good thing for the Ivies or for the playoff in general.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Looking forward to the games today!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Gameday!
I played both favorite MLs at open, those did and remain like the most possible outcomes. As the week has gone on and as those point spreads have ticked upward I have found my mind wandering on how these games might play out.
After taking the points against Montana State last week and having that go so poorly makes it somewhat difficult to do the same with South Dakota this week. I've been flirting with them though. Line opened 6.5, settled in the 8s currently after spending some time in the 9s briefly.
The style and type of offense that Tarleton and UC Davis have with their passing attacks is quite different than what USD has seen in the Valley this year and is certainly not something that Montana State does. So I have been wondering if the way those games went have tarnished USD's overall defense perception.
I think USD is built for the games they play against NDSU and SDSU and while Montana State is unique and quite awesome offensively - I do think that USD's MVFC rivals have some similarities to what Montana State brings to the table so I am expecting a much better game matchup-wise to what the USD defense looks like today compared to allowing 31 pts and 477y (8.0) vs Tarleton and 21 pts with 433y (5.3) vs Davis. Neither one of those teams ran on the Yotes, which Tarleton is a good run offense with Brittan at RB and Davis of course with Larison, but he went down to injury in the 1Q. Tarleton was held about 100y below their ssn rush avg and Davis about 50 - all while the USD passing D was exposed in ways it had not been in the regular season. Of note, that pass D did force 8 INTs in those 2 games.
So I think it is more important to look at USD's games against the other Dakota powerhouses to envision what today's game might look like. And I think defensively, it looks pretty good.
This year USD beat NDSU 29-28 and lost in OT 17-20 at SDSU. +51y vs Bison and -54y vs the Jacks. We recall the dramatic finish how USD beat NDSU, the busted coverage for the game winning TD. USD did lead that game 14-0 however and then came back from 11 down and ultimately pulled back ahead with :12 after their defense got them the ball back late. USD had the Jacks in their sights. It was a defensive struggle, USD led 7-0, 7-7, SDSU led 14-7, then tied 14-14. USD missed or dropped on a few big plays in that game. Missed a would-be game winning FG as well. Defensively NDSU only ran for 3.5ypc (166y) and SDSU only ran for 3.8ypc (166y). This makes them 2-0 ATS vs both as they were +3 at home and +9 at SDSU. Last year they were just 1-2 ATS and SU vs both, beating the Bison in the regular season and that loss was avenged by NDSU in the playoffs. Overall in the last 5 games vs the Dakota powers, USD has gone 3-2 ATS (avg line 10.2).
So I can see a way that USD shows up on D, keeps this game close. On the other hand, if I have a worry for the Coyotes it is their offense - which is better this year, 13ppg better and 95ypg better. Nice. Last year they owned TOP and hit some occasional big plays vs NDSU, in their game this year, their offense generated 122 more overall yards and showed more ability to not just get up and maintain the lead by bleeding the clock, but they showed they were good enough to come back.
Vs SDSU as well, South Dakota scored an offensive TD vs the Jacks, something they failed to do in 2023. USD accumulated 92 more yards on offense in staying close enough to win that game compared to 2023's lopsided loss.
South Dakota should have the defense. The offense is where the worry lies, but they have shown growth on O this year and perhaps there could be some expectation they hold their own on that side of the ball.
Montana State is just such a beast of a team. Mellott has been having a terrific season and has only looked better down the stretch passing and the handcuffs have been taken off him running the ball now in the biggest games. The Montana State D has been pretty smothering. Only in fragments of games have they allowed some sustained drives and some occasional scores. The task is tall. I could point to the Eastern Washington game on the road, which was really the only game that Montana State's D was kind of questionable. EW ran for 225 (5.8) on them. MSU led by 14 off and on, but EW would cut it to 7 and kept things pretty interesting.
But this game is at home for the Cats, obviously a huge advantage for MSU and disadvantage to the South Dakota team who is used to playing in their dome (or the Fargo dome for that matter). Their style of football should translate fine to the outdoors, although they might be uncomfortable in it compared to the hosts. Big break though as the temps look mid 40s for the game.
Conventional wisdom says that Montana State runs away with it. But I think there are some indicators that show South Dakota can be in this game. Would really like to take a shot at +10 if it were to rise to that point.
And with that, have to think the total 56.5 is high. Montana State is a great Over team, but that is because they do just about all the heavy lifting. Among their 8 Overs this year, Cats have scored an avg of 44.5 ppg, that certainly goes a long way to securing Overs. Games can go a lot of different ways, but if South Dakota's D can matchup in ways I think they could then I do not think MSU hits 40 and would be capped somewhere in the low/mid 30s. Not that unrealistic as MSU only scored 34 on Montana and just 30 on Davis recently. And if there is a group that looks to struggle the most, it would be the USD O which should act to keep their point total down. Hard to see them scoring much more than like 23. If the game is 34-23, it goes Over, but I would not be surprised if either or both get less than that.
So I am on the Montana State ML and think I will go Under 56.5. Would like something on the dog just in case it all ends up looking like the games USD has played vs the other Dakotas. Think if I do that and win 2 out of 3 is pretty good. I might even think it is worth the risk of going 1-2 for the possible chance, that 3-0 is in the cards, think that is what I want to do.
I played both favorite MLs at open, those did and remain like the most possible outcomes. As the week has gone on and as those point spreads have ticked upward I have found my mind wandering on how these games might play out.
After taking the points against Montana State last week and having that go so poorly makes it somewhat difficult to do the same with South Dakota this week. I've been flirting with them though. Line opened 6.5, settled in the 8s currently after spending some time in the 9s briefly.
The style and type of offense that Tarleton and UC Davis have with their passing attacks is quite different than what USD has seen in the Valley this year and is certainly not something that Montana State does. So I have been wondering if the way those games went have tarnished USD's overall defense perception.
I think USD is built for the games they play against NDSU and SDSU and while Montana State is unique and quite awesome offensively - I do think that USD's MVFC rivals have some similarities to what Montana State brings to the table so I am expecting a much better game matchup-wise to what the USD defense looks like today compared to allowing 31 pts and 477y (8.0) vs Tarleton and 21 pts with 433y (5.3) vs Davis. Neither one of those teams ran on the Yotes, which Tarleton is a good run offense with Brittan at RB and Davis of course with Larison, but he went down to injury in the 1Q. Tarleton was held about 100y below their ssn rush avg and Davis about 50 - all while the USD passing D was exposed in ways it had not been in the regular season. Of note, that pass D did force 8 INTs in those 2 games.
So I think it is more important to look at USD's games against the other Dakota powerhouses to envision what today's game might look like. And I think defensively, it looks pretty good.
This year USD beat NDSU 29-28 and lost in OT 17-20 at SDSU. +51y vs Bison and -54y vs the Jacks. We recall the dramatic finish how USD beat NDSU, the busted coverage for the game winning TD. USD did lead that game 14-0 however and then came back from 11 down and ultimately pulled back ahead with :12 after their defense got them the ball back late. USD had the Jacks in their sights. It was a defensive struggle, USD led 7-0, 7-7, SDSU led 14-7, then tied 14-14. USD missed or dropped on a few big plays in that game. Missed a would-be game winning FG as well. Defensively NDSU only ran for 3.5ypc (166y) and SDSU only ran for 3.8ypc (166y). This makes them 2-0 ATS vs both as they were +3 at home and +9 at SDSU. Last year they were just 1-2 ATS and SU vs both, beating the Bison in the regular season and that loss was avenged by NDSU in the playoffs. Overall in the last 5 games vs the Dakota powers, USD has gone 3-2 ATS (avg line 10.2).
So I can see a way that USD shows up on D, keeps this game close. On the other hand, if I have a worry for the Coyotes it is their offense - which is better this year, 13ppg better and 95ypg better. Nice. Last year they owned TOP and hit some occasional big plays vs NDSU, in their game this year, their offense generated 122 more overall yards and showed more ability to not just get up and maintain the lead by bleeding the clock, but they showed they were good enough to come back.
Vs SDSU as well, South Dakota scored an offensive TD vs the Jacks, something they failed to do in 2023. USD accumulated 92 more yards on offense in staying close enough to win that game compared to 2023's lopsided loss.
South Dakota should have the defense. The offense is where the worry lies, but they have shown growth on O this year and perhaps there could be some expectation they hold their own on that side of the ball.
Montana State is just such a beast of a team. Mellott has been having a terrific season and has only looked better down the stretch passing and the handcuffs have been taken off him running the ball now in the biggest games. The Montana State D has been pretty smothering. Only in fragments of games have they allowed some sustained drives and some occasional scores. The task is tall. I could point to the Eastern Washington game on the road, which was really the only game that Montana State's D was kind of questionable. EW ran for 225 (5.8) on them. MSU led by 14 off and on, but EW would cut it to 7 and kept things pretty interesting.
But this game is at home for the Cats, obviously a huge advantage for MSU and disadvantage to the South Dakota team who is used to playing in their dome (or the Fargo dome for that matter). Their style of football should translate fine to the outdoors, although they might be uncomfortable in it compared to the hosts. Big break though as the temps look mid 40s for the game.
Conventional wisdom says that Montana State runs away with it. But I think there are some indicators that show South Dakota can be in this game. Would really like to take a shot at +10 if it were to rise to that point.
And with that, have to think the total 56.5 is high. Montana State is a great Over team, but that is because they do just about all the heavy lifting. Among their 8 Overs this year, Cats have scored an avg of 44.5 ppg, that certainly goes a long way to securing Overs. Games can go a lot of different ways, but if South Dakota's D can matchup in ways I think they could then I do not think MSU hits 40 and would be capped somewhere in the low/mid 30s. Not that unrealistic as MSU only scored 34 on Montana and just 30 on Davis recently. And if there is a group that looks to struggle the most, it would be the USD O which should act to keep their point total down. Hard to see them scoring much more than like 23. If the game is 34-23, it goes Over, but I would not be surprised if either or both get less than that.
So I am on the Montana State ML and think I will go Under 56.5. Would like something on the dog just in case it all ends up looking like the games USD has played vs the other Dakotas. Think if I do that and win 2 out of 3 is pretty good. I might even think it is worth the risk of going 1-2 for the possible chance, that 3-0 is in the cards, think that is what I want to do.
Last edited:
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
North Dakota State snapped a 5 game losing streak vs South Dakota State this year with their 13-9 win at home. +1.5 spread in that one. It took a 10p 92y game winning drive with under 2min left, Cam Miller's career defining moment by no exaggeration.
SDSU did outgain them 333-275 (5.0-4.7). SDSU got a lot of 1H yards, over 200, but had poor starting field position (avg own 18) so their drives got yards and burned clock, but not a lot of pts. Big run by backup QB Mason, 66y means Jacks other 65 plays netted just 267 yards. Was not a game that Gronowski will want to remember from a production or efficiency standpoint. Then SDSU followed that game up the next week vs USD and they gained only 329y. The only two games this year they have gained 5.0 ypp or less vs their two toughest teams - that comes as no surprise, but maybe it is a surprise in that they were so weak offensively in both of those games. Have they grown through the back half of the season, or is that just kind of their ceiling when they play another top D? I think they have grown at receiver. That is one area that they lost a lot last year and hard to fault them to take some time to round into form. Question might remain though.
Even through their 5 game winning streak they scored 27, 27, 23, 45, 33 - so a couple good games there. 5 of the last 6 in the series would've went under the current total here. Avg combined score over that span 45.16.
NDSU kind of struggling to find a conventional running game lately, the last 3 weeks vs USD, ACU and Mercer they avg just 133 ypg on the ground with a 3.33 ypc. It has been more Miller and the passing game leading the way.
Bison D limited Mercer which wasn't so hard, then did allow some yards and pts vs ACU (31 with 345y 5.7), vs USD (29 with 391y 6.5) over their last 3 games.
This is a tougher one. I played the SDSU ML which hasn't moved all that much. Line went from 2.5 to 3.5 now. It feels like an Under, not sure I play that. Don't know what else I might do in this one. Have to step away from computer in a bit.
Weird that Bovada offered some player props on the Friday night Idaho - Montana State game, but I see none so far for today's games.
SDSU did outgain them 333-275 (5.0-4.7). SDSU got a lot of 1H yards, over 200, but had poor starting field position (avg own 18) so their drives got yards and burned clock, but not a lot of pts. Big run by backup QB Mason, 66y means Jacks other 65 plays netted just 267 yards. Was not a game that Gronowski will want to remember from a production or efficiency standpoint. Then SDSU followed that game up the next week vs USD and they gained only 329y. The only two games this year they have gained 5.0 ypp or less vs their two toughest teams - that comes as no surprise, but maybe it is a surprise in that they were so weak offensively in both of those games. Have they grown through the back half of the season, or is that just kind of their ceiling when they play another top D? I think they have grown at receiver. That is one area that they lost a lot last year and hard to fault them to take some time to round into form. Question might remain though.
Even through their 5 game winning streak they scored 27, 27, 23, 45, 33 - so a couple good games there. 5 of the last 6 in the series would've went under the current total here. Avg combined score over that span 45.16.
NDSU kind of struggling to find a conventional running game lately, the last 3 weeks vs USD, ACU and Mercer they avg just 133 ypg on the ground with a 3.33 ypc. It has been more Miller and the passing game leading the way.
Bison D limited Mercer which wasn't so hard, then did allow some yards and pts vs ACU (31 with 345y 5.7), vs USD (29 with 391y 6.5) over their last 3 games.
This is a tougher one. I played the SDSU ML which hasn't moved all that much. Line went from 2.5 to 3.5 now. It feels like an Under, not sure I play that. Don't know what else I might do in this one. Have to step away from computer in a bit.
Weird that Bovada offered some player props on the Friday night Idaho - Montana State game, but I see none so far for today's games.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I expect both games to be entertaining as I would be surprised if a 2-0 comes easy for me today, but won’t complain if it does!
12pm SDSU ML 140
3:30pm Montana State -6.5 115
12pm SDSU ML 140
3:30pm Montana State -6.5 115
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