Playoffs in the FCS

NDSU kicks their ass in the regular season game at home but is a dog now

Doesn't make any sense
 
NDSU kicks their ass in the regular season game at home but is a dog now

Doesn't make any sense

Game was even. NDSU went on a 92y game winning drive. SDSU was a short favorite in that game too
 

It seems a lot of people will be happy about that. Not like a lot of people report on the FCS, but among the few that do many were very vocal and almost angry that Ivy League did not participate in the playoffs. Don't know why these people cared, almost as if they wouldn't even discuss or rank Ivy teams because they had decided they wanted to do their own thing. Me being me, I 100% like anybody or anything thing (conference) doing their own things for their own reasons. I actually would prefer they do as they always have, but I can't be upset or happy either way, it just is what it is. They can do what they want.

I do wonder these people who so wanted the Ivy to be in the playoff, they are going to take away another spot from teams that these same people always be upset are left out, well, now there will be 1 more team that might be deserving left out because move-over 24 team field, Ivy Champ taking a spot now.

To me, it will be about on par with the Patriot League champion or maybe a good NEC champ. This may even weaken the Ivy League's reputation as they will probably always be a one-and-done type team, maybe win one game and out in the second round at best.

Ivy League shares their titles, 2, 3 or 4 ways. Story says they will figure a way to break the ties - this year Harvard beat Columbia and Dartmouth head-to-head, yet they still shared the title 3-ways. Columbia won a share of the title for the first time since 1968. Seems to me if they send Harvard on to the playoff that everyone knows they are the real champ and Columbia celebrating a share of the title is pretty hollow at that point. I don't know. Just not sure this is actually a good thing for the Ivies or for the playoff in general.
 
Gameday!

I played both favorite MLs at open, those did and remain like the most possible outcomes. As the week has gone on and as those point spreads have ticked upward I have found my mind wandering on how these games might play out.

After taking the points against Montana State last week and having that go so poorly makes it somewhat difficult to do the same with South Dakota this week. I've been flirting with them though. Line opened 6.5, settled in the 8s currently after spending some time in the 9s briefly.

The style and type of offense that Tarleton and UC Davis have with their passing attacks is quite different than what USD has seen in the Valley this year and is certainly not something that Montana State does. So I have been wondering if the way those games went have tarnished USD's overall defense perception.

I think USD is built for the games they play against NDSU and SDSU and while Montana State is unique and quite awesome offensively - I do think that USD's MVFC rivals have some similarities to what Montana State brings to the table so I am expecting a much better game matchup-wise to what the USD defense looks like today compared to allowing 31 pts and 477y (8.0) vs Tarleton and 21 pts with 433y (5.3) vs Davis. Neither one of those teams ran on the Yotes, which Tarleton is a good run offense with Brittan at RB and Davis of course with Larison, but he went down to injury in the 1Q. Tarleton was held about 100y below their ssn rush avg and Davis about 50 - all while the USD passing D was exposed in ways it had not been in the regular season. Of note, that pass D did force 8 INTs in those 2 games.

So I think it is more important to look at USD's games against the other Dakota powerhouses to envision what today's game might look like. And I think defensively, it looks pretty good.

This year USD beat NDSU 29-28 and lost in OT 17-20 at SDSU. +51y vs Bison and -54y vs the Jacks. We recall the dramatic finish how USD beat NDSU, the busted coverage for the game winning TD. USD did lead that game 14-0 however and then came back from 11 down and ultimately pulled back ahead with :12 after their defense got them the ball back late. USD had the Jacks in their sights. It was a defensive struggle, USD led 7-0, 7-7, SDSU led 14-7, then tied 14-14. USD missed or dropped on a few big plays in that game. Missed a would-be game winning FG as well. Defensively NDSU only ran for 3.5ypc (166y) and SDSU only ran for 3.8ypc (166y). This makes them 2-0 ATS vs both as they were +3 at home and +9 at SDSU. Last year they were just 1-2 ATS and SU vs both, beating the Bison in the regular season and that loss was avenged by NDSU in the playoffs. Overall in the last 5 games vs the Dakota powers, USD has gone 3-2 ATS (avg line 10.2).

So I can see a way that USD shows up on D, keeps this game close. On the other hand, if I have a worry for the Coyotes it is their offense - which is better this year, 13ppg better and 95ypg better. Nice. Last year they owned TOP and hit some occasional big plays vs NDSU, in their game this year, their offense generated 122 more overall yards and showed more ability to not just get up and maintain the lead by bleeding the clock, but they showed they were good enough to come back.

Vs SDSU as well, South Dakota scored an offensive TD vs the Jacks, something they failed to do in 2023. USD accumulated 92 more yards on offense in staying close enough to win that game compared to 2023's lopsided loss.

South Dakota should have the defense. The offense is where the worry lies, but they have shown growth on O this year and perhaps there could be some expectation they hold their own on that side of the ball.

Montana State is just such a beast of a team. Mellott has been having a terrific season and has only looked better down the stretch passing and the handcuffs have been taken off him running the ball now in the biggest games. The Montana State D has been pretty smothering. Only in fragments of games have they allowed some sustained drives and some occasional scores. The task is tall. I could point to the Eastern Washington game on the road, which was really the only game that Montana State's D was kind of questionable. EW ran for 225 (5.8) on them. MSU led by 14 off and on, but EW would cut it to 7 and kept things pretty interesting.

But this game is at home for the Cats, obviously a huge advantage for MSU and disadvantage to the South Dakota team who is used to playing in their dome (or the Fargo dome for that matter). Their style of football should translate fine to the outdoors, although they might be uncomfortable in it compared to the hosts. Big break though as the temps look mid 40s for the game.

Conventional wisdom says that Montana State runs away with it. But I think there are some indicators that show South Dakota can be in this game. Would really like to take a shot at +10 if it were to rise to that point.

And with that, have to think the total 56.5 is high. Montana State is a great Over team, but that is because they do just about all the heavy lifting. Among their 8 Overs this year, Cats have scored an avg of 44.5 ppg, that certainly goes a long way to securing Overs. Games can go a lot of different ways, but if South Dakota's D can matchup in ways I think they could then I do not think MSU hits 40 and would be capped somewhere in the low/mid 30s. Not that unrealistic as MSU only scored 34 on Montana and just 30 on Davis recently. And if there is a group that looks to struggle the most, it would be the USD O which should act to keep their point total down. Hard to see them scoring much more than like 23. If the game is 34-23, it goes Over, but I would not be surprised if either or both get less than that.

So I am on the Montana State ML and think I will go Under 56.5. Would like something on the dog just in case it all ends up looking like the games USD has played vs the other Dakotas. Think if I do that and win 2 out of 3 is pretty good. I might even think it is worth the risk of going 1-2 for the possible chance, that 3-0 is in the cards, think that is what I want to do.
 
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North Dakota State snapped a 5 game losing streak vs South Dakota State this year with their 13-9 win at home. +1.5 spread in that one. It took a 10p 92y game winning drive with under 2min left, Cam Miller's career defining moment by no exaggeration.

SDSU did outgain them 333-275 (5.0-4.7). SDSU got a lot of 1H yards, over 200, but had poor starting field position (avg own 18) so their drives got yards and burned clock, but not a lot of pts. Big run by backup QB Mason, 66y means Jacks other 65 plays netted just 267 yards. Was not a game that Gronowski will want to remember from a production or efficiency standpoint. Then SDSU followed that game up the next week vs USD and they gained only 329y. The only two games this year they have gained 5.0 ypp or less vs their two toughest teams - that comes as no surprise, but maybe it is a surprise in that they were so weak offensively in both of those games. Have they grown through the back half of the season, or is that just kind of their ceiling when they play another top D? I think they have grown at receiver. That is one area that they lost a lot last year and hard to fault them to take some time to round into form. Question might remain though.

Even through their 5 game winning streak they scored 27, 27, 23, 45, 33 - so a couple good games there. 5 of the last 6 in the series would've went under the current total here. Avg combined score over that span 45.16.

NDSU kind of struggling to find a conventional running game lately, the last 3 weeks vs USD, ACU and Mercer they avg just 133 ypg on the ground with a 3.33 ypc. It has been more Miller and the passing game leading the way.

Bison D limited Mercer which wasn't so hard, then did allow some yards and pts vs ACU (31 with 345y 5.7), vs USD (29 with 391y 6.5) over their last 3 games.

This is a tougher one. I played the SDSU ML which hasn't moved all that much. Line went from 2.5 to 3.5 now. It feels like an Under, not sure I play that. Don't know what else I might do in this one. Have to step away from computer in a bit.

Weird that Bovada offered some player props on the Friday night Idaho - Montana State game, but I see none so far for today's games.
 
High of 80 today. Have the heat on

Real feel is 37 lol

Looks and feels wintering in NE Ohio today. It's December, supposed to. Cold in Arizona then? Good day to stay in and watch football! Of course every day is a good day to stay in and watch football!
 
I expect both games to be entertaining as I would be surprised if a 2-0 comes easy for me today, but won’t complain if it does!



12pm SDSU ML 140
3:30pm Montana State -6.5 115
 
I can't pass up low numbers comparitively speaking. While I will be taking USD +pts, I just took a little more ML on Montana State. BetRivers had -286 while DK is -360, FD -320, BM 327, MB and BV 360. I guess I'm a sucker for shit on sale too - so I just like finding good numbers that align with what I want
 
Took some alt lines on NDSU +3 1H, +4.5 and +7.5 for the game. I like alt lines when I need a little nudge. Have SDSU ML. So in both games, will be looking for competitive close battles
 
"Now I can say it, I hate them, I hate the Jackrabbits" says Cam Miller - Love it!
 
I thought a couple of questionable calls went against SDSU on that go-ahead score for NDSU.
 
Tommy staring into that camera on the field post game, felt like he was staring into our souls...regarding North Dakota State "I can't wait to get after those guys"

Will be a fun January 6th night game.

Think I set a personal record for bets on a single game across 5 books; 20-12-1 1H and full game on pregame and live bets involving MSU MLs various prices, Under all kinds of numbers ranging from 57.5 to 70.5 and USD all kinds of +pt numbers most of which lost, but three won.
 
I thought a couple of questionable calls went against SDSU on that go-ahead score for NDSU.

There was the late hit out of bounds on Bock hitting Miller. Refs did not throw a low hit roughing penalty on SDSU though that Miller wanted.

Mark Gronowski had never lost to NDSU before this year, Cam Miller had never beat SDSU before this year. Miller goes 2-0 in 2024.

It is pretty remarkable. When I very first started getting into FCS football, Cam Miller's 2022 season was not as good. Many people were openly criticizing him, wondering how many more years Bison would be 'stuck' with him. He was good last year, phenomenal this year. He went 7-7 passing on that 92y with a game winning 20y TD pass to beat SDSU back in October and yesterday rushed for 30y, drew a 15 yard late hit penalty and threw the game winning 10y TD pass which was a better one-handed catch by Brice Lance than it was throw, outstanding either way.

Love seeing two 5th year QBs lead their programs. No guns for hire here. Maybe they aren't NFL - GOOD! That means we get to see their talents more years in college!

Now Miller will go against another 5th year QB Tommy Mellott for the Title. Mellott's first year playing in 2021 ended in a National Title game loss to NDSU who had Cam Miller behind Center. Cool game for these two to face off again 3 years later. Not to mention that NDSU ended Montana State's playoffs last year in Bozeman on a blk'd xpt in OT!

Here is the clip of Miller hating South Dakota State:


 
I keep going back and forth between the over or Montana State ML. Have really enjoyed watching both teams and I am excited to see this matchup play out.

Would not be surprised at any outcome except a low scoring game hence why I am warming to the over. Open to any thoughts you guys might have on which is the stronger play in your opinion thanks!
 
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Was curious to see how the FCS playoff games on ABC would do. Comparing that to Tennessee State at Montana first round game on ESPN2 late night which had 263k viewers. Didn't see any numbers for the 2/13 Friday night game between Idaho and Montana State which I think was the only football game on that night. Earlier ESPNU games - Yale at Penn got 51k and South Dakota at South Dakota State only 38k. The regular season Dakota Marker game between SDSU at NDSU on ESPN2 8:00 got 172k viewers, so 9x more for the playoff game on network TV.
 
I have a future on Montana St to win title and I also took their ML when lines came out so I doubled down.
 
I'm not a prop player generally. When I am inspired by 2dabank I have played some in the bowls.

For FCS there is only one game this year where they offered props - the Idaho - Montana State game. Bovada offered player props. The only one I took was Jack Layne Over passing yards.

I did not see any other ones for the playoff games, but I could've missed them perhaps.

Bookmaker and Bet On Line has some. I will need to look into them. Nothing at Bovada or MyBookie. Those are only offshores I use and my state won't allow domestic books to offer them if they are available at all.

Screenshot 2025-01-06 at 12-34-39 BookMaker - Sports.pngScreenshot 2025-01-06 at 12-34-30 BookMaker - Sports.png
Screenshot 2025-01-06 at 12-37-53 NCAA - North Dakota State @ Montana State Betting Lines at B...png
 
Cam Miller to score a rush TD is good bet at +$

You can't count on the NDSU RBs vs the good defenses or the big games. They are actually not a good conventional rushing offense vs good defenses. I would not bet anything on Brown or Kpeenu. If you look at their box scores in both the SDSU games the RBs were nonfactors. In the biggest games it is all about Miller. He has a rushing TD in every playoff game this year and the season finale at USD, which was kind of like a playoff game (decided the MVFC Title split) - so 4 straight (RBs only had a TD in one of those four).

Looking to take his Over 42.5 rush yards too. He had 40+ yards in 2 of the 3 playoff games and 3 of the last 4 games if you include the ssn finale vs USD. In games in which he ran it more than a few times (only had 5 attempts vs ACU in playoffs but did have a TD) he makes plays on the ground. His lowest output in the playoffs when he was trying to run was 40 yards vs Mercer on 11 att, which is after sacks (had 63 gross with a long of 34). Some of his regular season rush attempts and yardage isn't high because he was banged up at some point second half of year and was limited in being allowed to run by coaching staff. Only thing here is the sack impact that could play a role.
 
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I'm tempted first glance to lean towards Over on Mellot's rushing number, but I don't think I take it. Big game one would expect him to shine. However, Montana State has so many ways to run on the ground. Julius Davis is not listed. I think he could be in the rotation tonight that would give Montana State 3 lethal RBs. It is much differenet than NDSU where their offense is so heavily dependent on Miller running and throwing. Montana State can get production with their RBs so having to need Mellot to exceed 89.5 is kind of tough. Vs Montana for instance, Tommy only had 50y on 10 att (0 sacks), but while the Griz limited him, Scott went off for 197 on 25 carries. So that is what I mean. Definitely think Tommy will run and make plays there, but I don't want to have to count on him hitting 90 to win the bet.
 
The Mellot passing number is a little high. NDSU D can be passed on and Mellot has really had a nice year passing, but it is subtle in a nice way because it's a play here and a play there obviously their bread and butter is on the ground. What he has done is connected with timely and accurate throws, but he has failed to top this 174.5 several times this year.

I might almost think if he goes over that number it is a bad time for Montana State in the game, I don't know.

So I have two Miller Over bets, maybe that is a small hedge to my Montana State MLs.

Those are really modest expectations, 1 rushing TD and Over 42.5 rushing yards for the player the entire NDSU offense revolves around. Those are very attainable even if the Bison come up on the losing end.
 
There are a bunch more props out now on BOL and Bovada has posted their's. BOL still has a Cam Miller TD at +120, Bovada has it at -165. I'm still surprised that can be had at +money
 
Great drive. Montana State D will have to tighten up

Should be setting up for a good one
 
I had no clue the Dlll game was yesterday and Mount is just down the road from me, but I don't follow Dlll at all
Home town is Simpson College so dIII was a big deal growing up. Alma Mater I Central Missouri so dII, notice there's no D in Central Missouri but the offense is always fun!
 
I had no clue the Dlll game was yesterday and Mount is just down the road from me, but I don't follow Dlll at all
That was a weird start time for sure.

I honestly just want to watch a Lafayette/Lehigh game or Duquesne/Bobby Mo game. I lose interest once the playoffs start.

I would've bet Montana St but I'm about 0-15 trying to beat NDSU.
 
Definitely like (not for my MSU bets), but I do like seeing Miller being so dialed in. Want A game best vs best going here. See if MSU D can step up here
 
Home town is Simpson College so dIII was a big deal growing up. Alma Mater I Central Missouri so dII, notice there's no D in Central Missouri but the offense is always fun!
Back 2 Back Harlon Hill trophys from your QB this year.
 
Simpson and Central was a huge deal growing up. Central made at least a couple trips to the Stagg Bowl
 
This is actually a really good time to play this game. I know the fans hate that it's on a Monday night, but it's good for the growth of the sport IMO.
 
Back 2 Back Harlon Hill trophys from your QB this year.
He'll be a legend and guessing if I ever make a trip back to Warrensburg he'll be on Pine Street getting drinks bought for him

Crazy to think Willie Fritz spent a bunch of years there....but also crazy to realize Phog Allen coached there before he went to KU!
 
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