NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

HonestD said:
If you wanna do a sheet for that like we're doing for hockey with me again for it I can give you access to the page. It'd be nice to have two people just incase one can't update because I'm sure it will get a lot of appeal if we or I do it.
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100% man. Speaking of Accuscore, they see a huge advantage on WPG today. Hockeyviz has WPG/FLA 56/44.
 
I like it. Do you agree?

They predict a 3.9 to 2.8 score. Guess the over wouldn't be a bad look either.
 
I believe MP is overvaluing Florida and might be assuming Luongo is starting more often. Reimer/Hutchison have been a nightmare and I think we see Hutch today facing his former WPG team that got rid of him. Laine may have finally woken up yesterday with that hat trick, which is what that offense needed. Line keeps going up too. Corsica hockey likes WPG too at 58%.

I also think there is some false accounted for noise in that this is truly a neutral site game. So all the data on home/away is relatively useless in these predictive models.
 
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Bunch of plays already tomorrow, line movement may add some. One of the strangest lines of the year is Buffalo -200 at home against Ottawa. I get that it's Ottawa but Buffalo should never be -200 against anyone. I don't even care if they win. They don't win that game 67% of the time.
 
peelpub94 said:
Todays plays,

FLA +125
AZ +100
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"Wile E Coyote" WON their last 4 and Raanta 3-1 his last 4 with the wins 1 GA's games and 2:00 Gaa with .926 save %. Hurricane LOST last 2 and and 4 of last 6. Mrazak lost last and is 3-5 last 8 with a 2.60 Gaa and .887 save % :)
 
For shits and giggles, I'm gonna start looking at 1st Period lines on the bigger underdogs. Like +170 or over on the underdog...
Last Night OTT (L) Phila (W)
1-1-1

Today Buffalo Is +0 +105...I was going to look at just the larger dogs, but maybe look into the smaller dogs 1st Period Line? Again, this is all early stages, trying to get a feel...
 
Back to backs matter, but there are a lot more variables to look at to understand how much it should be weighted.
 
You kept me off Tampa PL yesterday thankfully. I am contemplating play on Pitt. Your numbers show some justification, but I'm not really feeling it, once these guys play 20, it would be autobet. The first 20 I am more conservative.
 
peelpub94 said:
Didn't catch the Sabres/Rangers game, was in the city last night. Saw a lot of happy Ranger fans running around the city, was good to see.

Today,

EDM +130

Accuscore hates the Oilers tonight for some reason.
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Wow, it's an 8% edge play too! :confused3:
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
You kept me off Tampa PL yesterday thankfully. I am contemplating play on Pitt. Your numbers show some justification, but I'm not really feeling it, once these guys play 20, it would be autobet. The first 20 I am more conservative.
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I love that this model has completely taken away the "feel" angle for me. Too often I got let down on my feeling for a game because a team decided to take a night off despite knowing their tangible advantages going into a game.
 
Today's plays:

PIT +115
COL +110

YTD update

Moneypuck: 41-38 +14.47u
Accuscore: 46-32 +21.44u
 
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Good Info for me again as I was trying to justify Predators and Flames. They are both at G15 and G16 respectively, and I am hesitant till 20. Definitely off Nashville and their undefeated road record now.

At -138 Flames are in line with MP.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Probably getting a little too clever for my own good considering my filter was on Predators but feels wrong.

AVS -1/+189
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In last 10 vs Nashville, Colorado is 0-10.

Nashville virtually has zero weakness. Both teams haven't played since Friday/Saturday. Colorado's top line is probably best in the league right now. Should be a really good
one.
 
peelpub94 said:
Today's edge plays:

VAN +200
NYI +180
CAR +100
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GREAT call on Canucks, peelpub94. BEAT the Bruins @ Boston 8-5. their reverse puckline was -1 1/2 +500 :)

the "Coney Island Weenies" gave the Bugs a game BUT a late goal plus an ""M-T" made it 4-2 Bugs final :(

AND 4-3 Hurricanes FINAL @ United Center. they TRIED to BLOW a 4-0 lead early 2nd period :confused:
 
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