NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

Good Night Yesterday. Questions. Which book(s) do you find the -1 lines at? #2. Have you looked into the %'s of teams like Boston last night that were -160 and considered a play on the -1.5? Meaning, do you see any value over time taking the -1.5 for plus money, instead of high juice? (Hope I'm getting my point across...Hahaha!
 
Vap'sBack said:
Good Night Yesterday. Questions. Which book(s) do you find the -1 lines at? #2. Have you looked into the %'s of teams like Boston last night that were -160 and considered a play on the -1.5? Meaning, do you see any value over time taking the -1.5 for plus money, instead of high juice? (Hope I'm getting my point across...Hahaha!
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-1 lines at 5dimes. I'm mostly risk averse so I don't bet puck lines as much. Too many things can go wrong for a puck line to fail. I used to bet regulation lines a lot too and too often was I burned.
 
1-2 last night, -1.0u on 2 really tough 1 goal losses.

25-28 +5.82u

Many disagreements today as we're adding 4% edge plays into the mix. Highest edge play of the day is VAN 8% in the night cap. This number may go even higher by close.

FLA +105
NYI +140
EDM +175
CGY -110
TOR -140
CHI +130
COL +140
AZ +115
VAN +185
 
peelpub94 said:
1-2 last night, -1.0u on 2 really tough 1 goal losses.

25-28 +5.82u

Many disagreements today as we're adding 4% edge plays into the mix. Highest edge play of the day is VAN 8% in the night cap. This number may go even higher by close.

FLA +105
NYI +140
EDM +175
CGY -110
TOR -140
CHI +130
COL +140
AZ +115
VAN +185
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Also have one Power Play now
 
peelpub94 said:
Strongly considering dropping Detroit from all plays period.
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You’re the hockey man. Go for it if you think it’ll make a difference. Last year I had to drop the padres from my baseball because they always qualified but never won so I def am not opposed to that
 
Accuscore 9% edge or higher is 12-3 for over 10 units. Rangers are a 19% edge today, highest we've seen. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
peelpub94 said:
Accuscore 9% edge or higher is 12-3 for over 10 units. Rangers are a 19% edge today, highest we've seen. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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considering that the "LA Goons" AND "Not So" Quick completely STINK this season so far to the point where their coach is #1 on the "firing line" according to the CBC "Hot Stove" commentators, I would say the Rangers +145 THE best bet on the board today :shake:
 
peelpub94 said:
Accuscore 9% edge or higher is 12-3 for over 10 units. Rangers are a 19% edge today, highest we've seen. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Yeah, after a while we should have enough data to maybe get a unit system going if we can find anything legit.
 
0-1 -1.40u.

Calgary simply outworked Toronto all game and was the benefactor from said work. Models unfortunately can't always account for a team's compete level on a given night, we only have the numbers that have shown what they've done, and what they'll likely do. Probability works in our favor sometimes, other times it does not.

YTD 30-34 +5.97u

Tonight, NYI +200
 
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peel- Your spread sheet says Rangers over SJ. They won 4-3 (Not as you have it, 3-2) And I thought the play was on NYI?!
Just a heads up, not being a dick or anything, hahaha!
 
Vap'sBack said:
peel- Your spread sheet says Rangers over SJ. They won 4-3 (Not as you have it, 3-2) And I thought the play was on NYI?!
Just a heads up, not being a dick or anything, hahaha!
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Thanks for catching that, updated the score. The play was on the Islanders. Both models agreed which made it a power play as indicated by the light blue.
 
October round up below. We missed the first 5 days of the season where I'm pretty sure there were additional units made on some of the wacky lines presented. Unfortunate we missed that, but the rest of the month has us in a promising spot to continue tracking.

Moneypuck: +9.07u
Accuscore: +13.39u
 
Hated the Florida play from the outset and had a lot of trouble understanding why MP liked it so much. So much that I tweeted the creator about it but didn't get much clarification on why the model liked them that much. Understandable since that would reveal some of his proprietary work. In my eyes that was more of a 53/47 type game in favor of WPG.
 
peelpub94 said:
Hated the Florida play from the outset and had a lot of trouble understanding why MP liked it so much. So much that I tweeted the creator about it but didn't get much clarification on why the model liked them that much. Understandable since that would reveal some of his proprietary work. In my eyes that was more of a 53/47 type game in favor of WPG.
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Let's see how this month goes, but one thing I noticed, is that on high probability plays via MP, they don't win at a very high rate.
 
peelpub94 said:
Hated the Florida play from the outset and had a lot of trouble understanding why MP liked it so much. So much that I tweeted the creator about it but didn't get much clarification on why the model liked them that much. Understandable since that would reveal some of his proprietary work. In my eyes that was more of a 53/47 type game in favor of WPG.
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Its interesting when Accuscore and MP differ on favorite
 
Another great night for both models. Really wish CBJ's line went a little higher, I was itching to slam them into a play as well. This was an obvious 50/50 game based on some advanced underlying stats I was looking at. Rangers became a play late last night with 4% edge and was unable to post here.

And yes, as HonestD mentions, Accuscore (the model he brought into this for tracking) is now on a 13-0 run (+18.90 units) on edge plays 5% or higher.

Moneypuck: +11.87u 16.3% ROI
Accuscore: +19.19u 27.3% ROI
 
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peelpub94 said:
What would pulling a Berryhorse entail?
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It was a joke. He was doing the same system and the thing tanked. Was talking to a guy in my betting group last night and he brought up how he was tailing Berrys system for baseball and it gave back pretty much all it's profit.
 
HonestD said:
It was a joke. He was doing the same system and the thing tanked. Was talking to a guy in my betting group last night and he brought up how he was tailing Berrys system for baseball and it gave back pretty much all it's profit.
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I still follow him regularly. There was a stretch in August where there were a lot of losses. But I think part of that came from people still betting on Baltimore and KC while Berry wasn't. But September there were substantial gains again and he was up big time for the full season.

1541168790824.png

https://sportsthoughts.co/baseball/an-autopsy-of-my-2018-mlb-model/
 
peelpub94 said:
I still follow him regularly. There was a stretch in August where there were a lot of losses. But I think part of that came from people still betting on Baltimore and KC while Berry wasn't. But September there were substantial gains again and he was up big time for the full season.

View attachment 35699

https://sportsthoughts.co/baseball/an-autopsy-of-my-2018-mlb-model/
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That very well could be. I don't remember those teams being exceptions.

Does he do anything for NBA?
 
If anyone lost money on his baseball model, they either don't speak the english language or don't know how to math.

He does models for NCAAF, NFL, NCAAB, NBA and MLB. He shares top 5 model plays for NCAAF and NFL each week. He does not wager on NFL period anymore. He won't be sharing his NCAAB model :( which I was really hoping for.
 
I actually did the same exact thing a couple seasons ago but it didn't work out. I think my source was pretty off.

Accuscore's the best in the business by a pretty wide stretch from what I've seen and they do pretty much everything. I'm going to be tracking baseball the same way we're doing hockey. I've had it about two years now and it's only $70 a month
 
If you wanna do a sheet for that like we're doing for hockey with me again for it I can give you access to the page. It'd be nice to have two people just incase one can't update because I'm sure it will get a lot of appeal if we or I do it. Accuscore breaks down each game prediction with stats that you could use for fantasy as well. They've got a player prop calculator. It's real indepth site.
 
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