NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

Mistake in previous post, Nashville is NOT an edge play. Moneypuck sees them at 46%, Vegas sees them at 54%.
 
Last night, 2-1 +1.90u

YTD 18-19 +6.75u

Today's 10/20 plays

OTT +100
AZ +175

Coincidentally those are the only two 5% edge plays. We'll see if other teams like Vancouver get pushed into an edge play later.
 
Last edited:
peelpub94 said:
Tomorrow's 10/21 edge plays:

STL +140
VAN +130
Click to expand...

VERY surprised the Capital only -150 @ Canucks +135 on the overnight for Monday. YES the "Canuckelheads" playing beeter than people expected at 5-3 and 5-1 their last 6 winning vs Bruins 2-1 (OT) @ Penguins 3-2 (OT) @ Panthers 3-2 and @ Lightning 4-1 BUT the Capitals STILL the Stanley Cup Champions with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Backstrom and Holby in goal :confused:
 
In years past this is one of the match ups in hockey I will almost always autobet. Sens at home vs Bruins. Glad it made the cut.
 
Last night, 1-1 +0.50u

YTD 22-25 +5.67u

No model plays today unless there ends up being significant line movement.
 
Seems like sizable favorites aren't worth the price in hockey.

Should we set a threshold on the cost or continue to play anything that meets the value criteria?
 
HonestD said:
Seems like sizable favorites aren't worth the price in hockey.

Should we set a threshold on the cost or continue to play anything that meets the value criteria?
Click to expand...
I've been thinking about this as well. Or make plays higher than -150 on the regulation or puck line.

I've also been thinking about reducing the edge to 4% to make it a play. It might be coincidence based on match ups, but there seems to be an apparent drop in edge with Moneypuck over the past few days.
 
We can tinker around with stuff. You're the boss so in the end it's whatever you wanna do.

4% looks super profitable for MP and ACC and it'll give us more plays.
 
Interesting, MP has yotes as underrated tonight. It is a play for me that I was considering skipping cause it is their 9th game, and it gets weird backtesting for the next handful. Going to do it tho.
 
HonestD said:
So would you recommend we keep plays on the sheet even at like -150 and -160?
Click to expand...

I know that you and Peel are sharper than me when it comes to crunching. Using betlabs for scenarios, including my puckline, I noticed that ROI dropped off considerably above -185. I also tend to like -115 as a true fave.

So I dont mind laying it to -185 particularly on PL but would look to play dog on +1.5 PL above that or when line just looks gratuitous for example
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I know that you and Peel are sharper than me when it comes to crunching. Using betlabs for scenarios, including my puckline, I noticed that ROI dropped off considerably above -185. I also tend to like -115 as a true fave.

So I dont mind laying it to -185 particularly on PL but would look to play dog on +1.5 PL above that or when line just looks gratuitous for example
Click to expand...


Noted. Do you pay the $50 for the whole package? SI, Betlabs and Action Sports?


Yeah, just like baseball, those favorites will kill an ROI if you don't choose the right ones. That baseball system I ran this season and posted a little bit on the forum had to do with big favorites but it was all about a consensus line move more than anything else. That stuff though, Betlabs can't track. It has opening price and closing price, but doesn't take detailed information on how the line move between open and close.
 
I ignore everything from them except betlabs and their odds page. You and Peel would make so much hay with betlabs. Im telling you. Just stay away from using filters that incorporate betting percentages. Thats a road best not traveled. Stick to backtesting sound scenarios and grind.
 
Had 13 people viewing the model yesterday, it must be interesting to some :)

Edge plays of 3 and 4%, have gone 8-3 for +6.5 units.

Edge plays of 10% or higher have gone 1-6 for -4.45 units.
 
I'm old school hockey bettor. Back when games could end in a tie after a 5 min OT.
The lines were -.5 or +.5
I would take the teams records like this, (Fake Example)

Detroit 21-13-5 -.5 (-150)
SJ Sharks 19-13-7 +.5 (+130)

Due to the 1/2 goal, I would consider a tie for the favorite a loss, a tie for the underdog a win. So Detroit would look like this...
Detroit 21-18. The Sharks getting a half a goal, the ties I would make wins.
26-13. With that, The Sharks have 5 more wins as an underdog when getting that half a goal, making them a live home play dog for me.

I did pretty well, but then no more ties to end the game, ended my hockey betting... Also the empty net goal can kill your +1.5 nowadays...

So that's why I come in when possible to see what you peel and Johnny are trying to come up with. I find it interesting.

Thanks Guys! :shake:
 
I would welcome ties back any day. I don't need a winner when I'm watching a game. At this point I solely want to rely on math and probability. Hopefully this model helps achieve that. Glad you find it interesting.
 
We're going on three weeks and everything is up money. That's pretty good in my opinion. Off a 5% edge it's not realistic to really expect it to be up any more than this with as few a games as we've had thus far, even though it seems like a lot.

The Power Play has the highest ROI, which is what we were hoping for. As long as MP and Accuscore can maintain stability on their own, I think the Power Play will do quite well.
 
HonestD said:
We're going on three weeks and everything is up money. That's pretty good in my opinion. Off a 5% edge it's not realistic to really expect it to be up any more than this with as few a games as we've had thus far, even though it seems like a lot.

The Power Play has the highest ROI, which is what we were hoping for. As long as MP and Accuscore can maintain stability on their own, I think the Power Play will do quite well.
Click to expand...
I think I'm going to incorporate 4% edge plays but combine it with a flat $100 bet on faves higher than 140 maybe.
 
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