NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

HonestD said:
Awesome.

Lately I've been dealing with a guy who is a big time data analyst for a top 10 tech company and has his own analytics models. They're super solid and I'm hoping that sometime next year I can have him teach me how the models work and then get my hands on them for my own usage. He's currently using his NCAAM model for the KBL and is cleaning house. He looks for about a 7 point difference between lines for the NBA and 10 for the NFL.

He said baseball is his best sport. I know I've discussed with PEEL doing the same EDGE model with Accuscore for baseball and I believe it's a go.

May bring that guys model into the equation as well kind of like how we have MP if things go as planned by then.
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This is just a great thread. I hope I haven't cluttered it up too much. Very rare to be able to discuss
some of these sites like Accuscore, etc, etc, with people that actually know how to use them in their
capping arsenal. I Googled too many threads from various other forums, where the posters discussing
sites like Accuscore, etc, were expecting these type of sites to be like a crystal ball or a fortune teller and
predict the future for them. These type of sites are not for lazy cappers in my opinion, but more for the
guy who will put in the work and use them as a tool or an extra filter for weeding out plays.

I create my own personal line for every game, and I'm looking forward to experimenting with Accuscore,
SportsLine, and also SportsInsights over the next year, and finding ways I can maybe use each product
with what I am already doing.

Peelpub and HonestD, thanks again guys for all the great convo in this thread. And sorry if I have maybe
cluttered it up a bit.
 
Nine said:
This is just a great thread. I hope I haven't cluttered it up too much. Very rare to be able to discuss
some of these sites like Accuscore, etc, etc, with people that actually know how to use them in their
capping arsenal. I Googled too many threads from various other forums, where the posters discussing
sites like Accuscore, etc, were expecting these type of sites to be like a crystal ball or a fortune teller and
predict the future for them. These type of sites are not for lazy cappers in my opinion, but more for the
guy who will put in the work and use them as a tool or an extra filter for weeding out plays.

I create my own personal line for every game, and I'm looking forward to experimenting with Accuscore,
SportsLine, and also SportsInsights over the next year, and finding ways I can maybe use each product
with what I am already doing.

Peelpub and HonestD, thanks again guys for all the great convo in this thread. And sorry if I have maybe
cluttered it up a bit.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I never really considered sites like these until I religiously followed the run berryhorse went on this summer in baseball using his +ev strategy, ultimately derived from Joe Peta and his book Trading Bases. @Nine I would highly recommend reading this book as it's helped me gain better perspective on the math side of gambling. At the end of the day that's really all it should be about.
 
Nine said:
This is just a great thread. I hope I haven't cluttered it up too much. Very rare to be able to discuss
some of these sites like Accuscore, etc, etc, with people that actually know how to use them in their
capping arsenal. I Googled too many threads from various other forums, where the posters discussing
sites like Accuscore, etc, were expecting these type of sites to be like a crystal ball or a fortune teller and
predict the future for them. These type of sites are not for lazy cappers in my opinion, but more for the
guy who will put in the work and use them as a tool or an extra filter for weeding out plays.

I create my own personal line for every game, and I'm looking forward to experimenting with Accuscore,
SportsLine, and also SportsInsights over the next year, and finding ways I can maybe use each product
with what I am already doing.

Peelpub and HonestD, thanks again guys for all the great convo in this thread. And sorry if I have maybe
cluttered it up a bit.
Click to expand...


The more chat the merrier. That’s what these forums are for. You’re exactly right. More than anything it’s a tool, not for the lazy capper. Sports lnsights is strictly lines and betlabs. Do not pay for their premium picks.

My best advice for you is to pay them the $50 and get access to the lines, betlabs and action sports. Don’t do the premium for $200 or whatever they charge for everything I just listed + their shitty picks. Actions sports is great. They have amazing daily content and articles along with providing ticket and money % for each game. It’s an app and a website.

Feel free to hit me up with any questions
 
peelpub94 said:
Agreed. I never really considered sites like these until I religiously followed the run berryhorse went on this summer in baseball using his +ev strategy, ultimately derived from Joe Peta and his book Trading Bases. @Nine I would highly recommend reading this book as it's helped me gain better perspective on the math side of gambling. At the end of the day that's really all it should be about.
Click to expand...

What a coincedence, I had ordered two books from Amazon last week that just showed up a couple days ago.
Basketball On Paper: Rools And Tools For Performance Analysis by Dean Oliver and the book you just suggested
Trading Bases by Joe Peta. I think a bunch of us in here are of the same mind set.
 
I have noticed certain teams on the wager list. Teams I see more often than not include Det, Ott, Van, and any team playing the Sharks. Hahaha. Any thoughts on why? GL To All!
 
Vap'sBack said:
I have noticed certain teams on the wager list. Teams I see more often than not include Det, Ott, Van, and any team playing the Sharks. Hahaha. Any thoughts on why? GL To All!
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Teams normally don't lose more than 40% of the time. Those 3 teams are often given much less than 40% chance to win by Vegas. Projection models value them slightly more than Vegas does. Creating disagreements more often than not.
 
I like this thread for 100 different reasons.

It's nice to baseline the probabilities.

However, if we dont get those good lines it's less meaningful to blindly tail.

Lindetrain was a scalper, might still be, I'm wondering if this method lends itself to buying value at open and selling before game.

Just thoughts sitting at diner, yknow?
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I like this thread for 100 different reasons.

It's nice to baseline the probabilities.

However, if we dont get those good lines it's less meaningful to blindly tail.

Lindetrain was a scalper, might still be, I'm wondering if this method lends itself to buying value at open and selling before game.

Just thoughts sitting at diner, yknow?
Click to expand...
Good chat to hold us over until March Madness and then MLB. I think I'm heading to AC one of those weekends for the Thursday/Friday where you have the Sweet 16 in Hoops, MLB opening day and NHL playoff races finishing all at the same time. They have pretty legit sportsbooks now.
 
peelpub94 said:
Good chat to hold us over until March Madness and then MLB. I think I'm heading to AC one of those weekends for the Thursday/Friday where you have the Sweet 16 in Hoops, MLB opening day and NHL playoff races finishing all at the same time. They have pretty legit sportsbooks now.
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Was down a couple weeks ago, Golden nugget was the only one that would cash tickets after the window closed and they also had betting kiosks which were nice. Harrahs and Borgatas still not up to snuff for me. Didn’t stay long but Oceans Casino which used to be Revel has a sick sportsbook with a bar inside.
 
Bushleague said:
Was down a couple weeks ago, Golden nugget was the only one that would cash tickets after the window closed and they also had betting kiosks which were nice. Harrahs and Borgatas still not up to snuff for me. Didn’t stay long but Oceans Casino which used to be Revel has a sick sportsbook with a bar inside.
Click to expand...
That's the one I've been looking at.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I like this thread for 100 different reasons.

It's nice to baseline the probabilities.

However, if we dont get those good lines it's less meaningful to blindly tail.

Lindetrain was a scalper, might still be, I'm wondering if this method lends itself to buying value at open and selling before game.

Just thoughts sitting at diner, yknow?
Click to expand...


You could. It's essentially arbitrage betting. IF that's you're strategy though, you've gotta stick with that only, it otherwise you'll be skewing the results, betting normally and then arbing games with significant line moves.
 
Tons of plays tonight. 5dimes had some really really strange, opening lines really early yesterday. Like before vegasinsider posted anything. That allowed some pretty heavy +ev plays on crap long shot teams. Interesting to see what happens tonight.

Hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday. One of the best times of the year with the World Junior Tournament underway yesterday. Went 2-0 taking Slovakia +4 and Swiss +2.
 
peel- Watching Hockey This Season...Not sure the odds, but MORE often than not, Detroit is an underdog in almost EVERY game. And even when they are favorite it is never more that -130...Take their record...16-20-7...If we take every OT win, They have a record of 23-20 with MOST of those wins at underdog odds. Meaning...If you played them every game this year, you'd show a nice profit.

Any other teams that fit this theory of mine? Thanks. And Happy New Year BTW...:shake:
 
Vap'sBack said:
peel- Watching Hockey This Season...Not sure the odds, but MORE often than not, Detroit is an underdog in almost EVERY game. And even when they are favorite it is never more that -130...Take their record...16-20-7...If we take every OT win, They have a record of 23-20 with MOST of those wins at underdog odds. Meaning...If you played them every game this year, you'd show a nice profit.

Any other teams that fit this theory of mine? Thanks. And Happy New Year BTW...:shake:
Click to expand...
If you were to bet Detroit $100 every game, you would still be down: https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/standings
Ottawa was kind of like this in the earlier part of the season. Vancouver too.
 
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Model is taking a pretty sizable hit this month. What I'm seeing is favorites winning games more and more, the games they're supposed to win. Dogs are getting murdered right now but this simply won't continue the rest of the season. I will be continuing to track for rest of season. Make plays at your own risk.
 
Take it FWIW but listening to NHL radio yesterday they were saying this is the time of year the cream rises to the top & the shit sinks to the bottom of the tank. I'm paraphrasing & they were generalizing with no real new info but just one way to look at it. The Lightning, Flames & Pens of the league will only get better while the Senators, Coyotes & Sabres of the league will start calling up fresh meat to get them some ice time & remain in the basement.
 
Zeke said:
Take it FWIW but listening to NHL radio yesterday they were saying this is the time of year the cream rises to the top & the shit sinks to the bottom of the tank. I'm paraphrasing & they were generalizing with no real new info but just one way to look at it. The Lightning, Flames & Pens of the league will only get better while the Senators, Coyotes & Sabres of the league will start calling up fresh meat to get them some ice time & remain in the basement.
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I don't disagree with any of this.
 
I truly thought last night was going to be the night where it all turns around. Panthers were up 2-0 lose 4-3, Anaheim was up 3-0 in the first and lose 7-4. Buffalo loses by 1 to Carolina who was on a b2b..... this stretch is beyond reasonable at this point. Taking a look around the other forums out there, the cappers who usually kill it are getting destroyed right now too. Really frustrating. But will keep grinding until April 6th.
 
peelpub94 said:
Model is taking a pretty sizable hit this month. What I'm seeing is favorites winning games more and more, the games they're supposed to win. Dogs are getting murdered right now but this simply won't continue the rest of the season. I will be continuing to track for rest of season. Make plays at your own risk.
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I definitely find it helpful to filter by month and then by day like Tuck over a season.

It is interesting when you create some parameters for a situation and backtest over 3 to 4 years and it shows good ROI. At that point, after setting things up, you look at it by months, and normally what you see are 2 bad months comparatively, further you will notice if you just filter for day of week the same thing. My point is that when you see the days/months it begins to make sense as you look at a season progress from start to finish.
 
Absolutely. It's completely unreasonable to think you will be net positive every single month. It simply can't happen. Just have to suck up the bad beats and stay patient for the eventual pendulum swing.
 
peelpub94 said:
See ya in 6 days.. stupid ass CBA rules. Season is far too long, these layoffs don't help. Schedule when they return is a joke too.
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No doubt. Even if they ended the season right at the end of March & playoffs started first week in April it would be better than what they now have. Nothing better than NHL playoffs but after a long winter I can think of other things to be doing at 3:00 PM on a Saturday afternoon when it's 80 degrees out.
 
Zeke said:
No doubt. Even if they ended the season right at the end of March & playoffs started first week in April it would be better than what they now have. Nothing better than NHL playoffs but after a long winter I can think of other things to be doing at 3:00 PM on a Saturday afternoon when it's 80 degrees out.
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This is the exact problem I have. Not to mention MLB underway.. I'm a big baseball junkie as well. I am outdoors basically all day as soon as it hits 65 or so.
 
Nice work! I was on WPG & PHI myself last night. Two dogs who are back in the swing of things versus teams off a long winter's nap. I don't have the balls to take that angle with Pitt over TB tonight though.
 
Zeke said:
Nice work! I was on WPG & PHI myself last night. Two dogs who are back in the swing of things versus teams off a long winter's nap. I don't have the balls to take that angle with Pitt over TB tonight though.
Click to expand...

Moneypuck gives TB an edge tonight.
 
Accuscore almost up to 50 units. Been hovering around this 45 units or so for quite some time. It's time to break through!
 
Stay hot! Careful with the B's today. They have an epicly horid record vs Caps. Im a B's fan & I even sprinkled a little on the Caps.
 
Thanks, Peel. Just don’t think it pulls up on my phone for whatever reason. Works well on the laptop.
 
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