NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

This is good stuff. I typically dont get too involved with hockey until football is over though. Ive found blindly throwing beer money on each dog on the board is generally profitable. Yes its very simplistic & takes no skill or thought but +money is +money.
 
Zeke said:
This is good stuff. I typically dont get too involved with hockey until football is over though. Ive found blindly throwing beer money on each dog on the board is generally profitable. Yes its very simplistic & takes no skill or thought but +money is +money.
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The key though is finding the "right" dogs to blindly bet on consistently. Betting every dog over the long haul will lose you money more often than not. Hopefully using tools like Moneypuck +5% edge will help narrow those selections down some.
 
Some disagreement today between Vegas and Money Puck! Let's see how it all plays out starting at 1pm!!

NYR +105
OTT +125
DET +225
TOR +105
MTL +145
CBJ +160
VAN +170
ANA +140
AZ -130
 
Couple of corrections in tracking. Montreal was NOT a play against the Kings Thursday, implied probability was entered backwards. Removing the loss from the total tally. Also, Vegas was incorrectly entered as a favorite, and they were actually a 5% edge play today. Will update final record after tonight's games.
 
Updated record per corrections above. Vancouver's 2 wins almost totaling 4 units is the biggest difference right now. I never would have bet on them in either game period. Other games that were big losers I would never bet in a million years either, like Detroit over Boston today or Tampa coming off a loss against CBJ tonight. Either way, this system I think will uncover sneaky value over the long haul. Looking forward to seeing it develop more and more.

Another fun tidbit, a big play today for a lot of people was the Canes getting plus money on the road against a smoke and mirrors team like MIN. Carolina out shot Minnesota 57-23 and it took an over time game winner from Aho who was absolutely brilliant all game. Both Moneypuck and Accuscore saw no edge in this game and truly there was literally zero edge in the game as it went back and forth despite how crazy Carolina was dominating. I find it interesting the model had us lay off this game, and it almost seemed like the right call in the end.

10-11 +3.7u
 
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Why are the Devils lined as home dogs today? Not sure I understand that one at all considering how well they've played in their first 2.
 
peelpub94 said:
Tomorrow’s 10/16 5% edge or better plays

VAN +195
CAR +157
AZ +140
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LIKE all three esp Canucks IF Ander Nilsson in goal for them

I would also chance Sabres +170 @ VGK

Sabres players OUT: Zach Bogosian
VGK players OUT: Deryk Engelland, Paul Stastny, Alex Tuch & Nate Schmidt

VGK have NOT scored more than 2 GF's in 6 regular season games and are 2-4 on the season AND allowed 4 or more GA's in the four losses

Sabres 3-2 on season including a 4-2 WIN over VGK @ Buffalo with Carter Hutton in goal

Marc-Andre Fleury a 1-0 shutout his last @ Flyers BUT allowed 4 GA's @ Capitals, 4 GA's @ Sabres and 5 GA's vs Flyers his home opener in Las Vegas

:shake:
 
The model says there's an edge with the Nucks but I wouldn't be so sure about laying money on them right now. Yes, they squeaked out a couple road wins in Tampa and Florida but now they're without their star Pettersson. Pens have issues of their own but I think they feast on this Canucks team tonight.
 
Recent line movement has made the Rangers a model play with 5% edge.

NYR +125
VAN +195
CAR +157
AZ +140
 
peelpub94 said:
The model says there's an edge with the Nucks but I wouldn't be so sure about laying money on them right now. Yes, they squeaked out a couple road wins in Tampa and Florida but now they're without their star Pettersson. Pens have issues of their own but I think they feast on this Canucks team tonight.
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nucks super dangerous bet here, safer and still value bet might be over 6.5 but still is alot of goals :oops:
 
Last night, 2-2 +1.25u

YTD 13-15 +4.45u.

Looking at the match ups, 2 more lines still need to come out and I don't think we have true value on any team tonight. I suspect the model may find a 5% edge and probably higher on the Rangers based on their b2b situation. Model is pricing them at +138. My assumption is that Vegas will set this line at +170 and higher. Might be difficult to lay actual money in this situation IMO.
 
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Vancouver becoming close to a model play as well. I would expect both the Nucks and Wings to get obliterated tonight.
 
4 model plays for tonight unless the Isles keeps going higher,

CBJ -140
DET +250
AZ +135
VAN +210
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
The only reason I played Yotes was your value determination. So psyched you started this thread.
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So sick!

I really hope you didn't lay actual cash on the Nucks and Wings like I warned. It's careful to remember I am not laying actual cash on all of these games. If you remove the Red Wings from the model completely it would be running at 4 units higher.
 
2-2 +0.35u last night

YTD 16-18 +4.80u

Today's 10/19 plays:

FLA +155
MIN +140
NSH -115
 
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