NBA plays and thoughts Round 2

[divol]

Will post record for regular season and Round 1 later on (small profit regular season, probably a loss in the first round).

No play in Game 1 - mostly because I suck betting Game 1 of the series usually, but thoughts:

Golden State - New Orleans

As Pels pointed out, ESPN sport people voted Portland unanimously in Round 1 and Pels swept them 4 - 0. While it's obvious that people underestimated NO, it's also very possible that Pels played above their abilities in Round 1 (and that Portland was really overrated).
In my eyes, without Curry, GSW still two levels above the Pelicans...
Holiday is amazing, Playoffs Rondo is not regular season Rondo, Mirotic was a great move by Demps and Davis proves again that he maybe the first player to pick, if you are building a new NBA team in 2018. Still... Pels have no bench, which is a huge problem against any team who's bench isn't as bad as Portland's and when you got Warriors with Durant and Thompson coming at them. One might note that Pels have a huge hole in SF position and while Portland has the same problem - Warriors have Durant and Iggy on that position. Very hard to believe that Dubs won't make 2 - 3 runs during the game, that will allow them double digits wins, at least at home.
Pels maybe win Game 3, but looks more like a sweep to me...
Obvious lean is the Warriors, but Game 1 is a skip for me...

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[braves]

Thanks Divol always enjoy your thoughts ,

 

[pip2]

Yes, thanks divol.

 

[divol]

Houston - Utah

Not a lot to say actually here... Utah proved a lot (and Mitchell and Rubio and Ingles and Gobert and Snyder and many others), but losing Rubio and playing the Rockets...
It's Rockets series to lose, but I'm 100% sure that if there is a way to lose this series, Rockets will find it...
The problem is that without Rubio, not sure there is a way to lose the series...
Doubt I will be betting here much, but Over can be a nice catch on the right moments... Rockets focused on defense this playoffs and this season as a whole and Jazz always about defense, but somehow... I feel that bookies will be setting the total lower than they should more often than not... a series that is a bit deceiving totals wise I feel...
Will see though...
No bets on Game 1 regardless (and it already started )

 

[pb278817]

Case and point, we get a 48.5 2nd quarter total... seems like a couple points low based on full game total ?
Find out soon

 

[divol]

Houston - Utah

As I said already, this series looks interesting to me, total wise. Utah without Rubio and it should hurt them on both ends of the floor.
I can see Rockets score 110 points here and Utah around 100 points.
Over 206 points, 2.04 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Looks good to me.

 

[emkee]

GL Divol.

 

[tuck321]

You think that desperate to win away in the series and with Mitchell back the tempo goes over?

 

[divol]

Finally, a pick won for a change

Two games tonight:

Boston - Philadelphia

I think that Boston is a problem for Philly. They got Simmons, that reminds me a bit Greak Freak, both don't have the shot, to make them whole on offense. I think that Sixers are have a good mix of raw talent and experience and bringing Reddick, Bellineli and Ilyasova was the right move, but still... two many players who either good on one side of the floor only or a bit one dimensional on offense - especially when you face a coach that will probably make you pay for that...
Stevens and his young and hungry squad (Horford aside), shouldn't be a dog at home against the Sixers. I can't back them, because even Stevens magic can do only so much, but no way I can back the Sixers as 2 baskets favorites on the road, against a team that can really make their lives difficult. Sixers have yet to prove they are a team that is road favorite in a playoffs game...
Small lean Boston (if Sixers would have won Game 1, would have taken Celtics for sure), but staying away.

Toronto - Cleveland

Had a feeling the series will go to Cleveland 1 - 1 before Game 1 and nothing made me change my mind. Raptors could have blasted Cleveland, like Pacers did in Game 1 or Game 6, but they chocked when it mattered and I doubt that anyone was really surprised. It's very hard for me to back this team, since I don't trust their mental state, especially playing against LeBron - the feeling is that if there is a way to lose a game against him, they will find a way.
But... it's maybe the biggest game for this franchise ever... A loss here and I really can't see them not tearing this package apart and they are the better team here. They also should finally learn something from all their losses in the playoffs and finally get it done. They got few players that are new and still don't have the losing mentality and can and should do the difference. I also feel that Raptors finally have enough bodies to throw and LeBron for 48 minutes.
LeBron will go for the kill, since winning Game 2, will probably mean a sweep, but I think we will see here at least 6 games series.
Very tough bet for me, but got to back the Raptors here.
Raptors -6.5, .1.93 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

I also like Raps ML + Dubs ML, but don't like parlays in the playoffs...

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the thoughts D... Good luck tonight.

 

[Shumakov]

staff commentator,

 

[divol]

The nice feeling of winning nights didn't last too long
Still believe that Raps was the right play, but there is a good reason I never trust this team in the playoffs...

No bets tonight, but quick thoughts:

Still feel like Dubs should sweep the series, like I thought before Game 1... Pels can make it difficult, but the only way Dubs lose a game here, is if they want to finish the series at home and do "gentleman's" sweep (4 - 1). If so, it probably will be Game 4, not Game 3...
Still... home team trailing 0 - 2... I don't think I ever faded a home team in such a spot and I'm not going to now...

As for the game in Utah... Game 2 proved that Houston still losers... On the other hand... the feeling is that the series will go back to Houston even 2 - 2. Will probably bet in Game 4, on a loser of Game 3, but have no idea what to think about Game 3... Utah +4.5 should have some value, but not enough to for me to bet...
Utah are well coached and you can see how Gubert is getting in to opponent's mind... Harden, Westbrook - kick the ball out (for a good shot) instead of taking it to the rim, in fear of getting blocked...
Harden needs to take more on himself and CP3 and his tear drop needs to show up, if Houston wants a chance to take the WC crown for Golden State...

 

[divol]

A bit short on time, so will post plays only - hope to write about the game in Utah later on...

Warriors -6, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Utah +5.5, 1.92 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[divol]

Quick thoughts:

I think that Pels deserve tons of respect. They are making it hard on the Dubs and GSW are admitting in that... The pace, the style of play - it makes it hard on the Warriors, but still... the lack of bench, the difference in quality of players, should make the difference and Dubs should close it in 5 games and hope they will cover as well tonight.

As for the Jazz, said it before Game 3, that will back the loser of Game 3 and hoped it will be Jazz. Rockets obviously more talented team, especially with Rubio out, but Jazz at home... hard to see them losing both home games. They are a good team, play tough, have great coach and very clear style of play - all of that, you can obviously say about Rockets as well, but the feeling is, that this series will go to minimum 6 games. The line adds confidence a bit, though very good chances, that the team that wins the game, covers as well...

 

[divol]

Split night

No bets for tonight, but I think that both home teams should win and cover. Toronto should be mentally broken and Cleveland should be looking to give them a death blow.
Sixers need this one for their young stars and Boston know they got this series...

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, you had the reads right tonight...

 

[divol]

In hindsight, one of the easier nights this playoff so far ...
Tonight two games, the feeling is that it will be a split ATS wise between home and road teams, but have no idea if it will be GSW or Houston that will drop the spread...
Winning wise, Utah got the better chance, but it also means that Rockets will be more focused, especially CP3 that will finally have a chance to advance to WCF...

 

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