NBA Playoff Plays (Second Round)...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular season: 71-51 (+22.01)

Playoffs: 13-10-1 (+10.65)

Weak 1st Round. 2nd Round is usually more promising.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -9.5 -115 (3 units)

:shake:
 
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Gl Emkee. Complete contrast in styles. The way the Warriors are playing, hard to see their style not winning out.
 
Memphis allowed CJM to become an all-star in that series with their defense...

Curry/Klay should feast.
 
With you on Warriors and teased me down and Wiz up. 10 is a bunch in that game I think. Also popped Wiz +5 I think they win this one.

Thoughts on Bulls/Cavs tomorrow? Already hit Bulls +200 for the series but wondering your thoughts on game 1 steal with the Cavs trying to figure out how to deal with loss of Love, no JR, etc.
 
With you on Warriors and teased me down and Wiz up. 10 is a bunch in that game I think. Also popped Wiz +5 I think they win this one.

Thoughts on Bulls/Cavs tomorrow? Already hit Bulls +200 for the series but wondering your thoughts on game 1 steal with the Cavs trying to figure out how to deal with loss of Love, no JR, etc.

James has beaten better teams than the Bulls with shittier supporting casts than the one he has tomorrow minus Love and JR. Kyrie should feast vs Rose, all the time off has affected Derrick's defense more than his offense. My plan is to sit out Game 1 due to the intangibles and most likely play the loser in Game 2 (subject to change). Bulls can steal it but the Cavs had plenty of time to sort out their new rotations.
 
Monday's Plays...

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets

The play...

Rockets -5.5 -120 (3 units)

Playing for obvious reasons. Rolled with the juiced 5.5 from the local but doubt it matters.

:shake:
 
Will be very surprised if CP3 plays, minor Grade 1 hammy strain is 3-days minimum imo plus he played on it. Taking a gamble as the spread could decrease if he somehow plays but, again I doubt it. Either way this is the one game the Rockets own in this series.
 
Yeap, I'm rooting for Memphis, but it has the feeling of GSW - NO series...
A good fight in 1 - 2 games, but no wins for Grizz, unless Conley comes back and plays really well...

Good luck on the Rockets, took them as well both in a teaser and ATS.
 
Thanks Divol.

Looks like we've got bad refs in Houston. Callahan, Stafford and Spooner, the first two love the road teams this postseason.
 
Damn that ref situation sucks. Still don't see how it stays close. This is one of those weird situations where Spurs would have beat the Rox but Clippers have no shot. Paul and Blake played to the highest of their abilities and just can't continue much longer.
 
Clippers should shit the bed in the latter stages of the 2nd half. Hopefully the Rockets also stop committing dumb turnovers.
 
Just witnessed one of the worst coached/played games committed by a team in all my years of watching the playoffs. Way to go Houston.

Kudos to Vegas. Got me.
 
Also, note to self...

Do not place a wager on any remaining playoff game without seeing the refs first.
 
I don't see how refs had anything to do with this.
Rockets played terrible, coached even worse.

They were so sure they will win playing straight on basketball, that they didn't try to do any simple things like trapping, forcing Austin to make decisions under pressure, force him to take much more than the 12 shots he took (though forcing is a strong word - just give him an excuse and he will shoot).
 
I don't see how refs had anything to do with this.
Rockets played terrible, coached even worse.

They were so sure they will win playing straight on basketball, that they didn't try to do any simple things like trapping, forcing Austin to make decisions under pressure, force him to take much more than the 12 shots he took (though forcing is a strong word - just give him an excuse and he will shoot).

Refs played a small role but yes, the Rockets lost that game on their own. Howard, Harden and Josh Smith are who they are. McHale got schooled by Stotts last postseason which says a ton. Doc albeit overrated is going to destroy him.
 
Home teams these playoffs in Games reffed by Callahan have a points differential of -9.4, with Stafford it's -13.4, it all adds up Divol.
 
Yeah, so i guess last night Cleveland didn't miss Love/JR aka 33% of team offensive production..

Right. I'm not sure you understand what "the angle" is that they are talking about. The angle that they are talking about is when a star player is out that the team actually performs better (against the expectations) and either wins or covers. So, yesterday's performance by the Cavs would bolster Calimike's assertion that the star player out angle isn't valid in the playoffs. (I'm not sure I believe that, nor that yesterday's game would be an example since Bron and Kyrie are really the stars, just bringing it up for the discussion to show what the 'star player out angle' actually is)
 
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Tuesday...

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

The play...

Hawks -5.5 -130 (3.9 to win 3)

:shake:
 
Bought 1.5 points to stick around the opening spread. Traditionally a good spot for the team that lost Game 1 at home (12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS in Game 2 in the 2nd Round), although I'm finding this postseason is unique and not in a good way.
 
Right. I'm not sure you understand what "the angle" is that they are talking about. The angle that they are talking about is when a star player is out that the team actually performs better (against the expectations) and either wins or covers. So, yesterday's performance by the Cavs would bolster Calimike's assertion that the star player out angle isn't valid in the playoffs. (I'm not sure I believe that, nor that yesterday's game would be an example since Bron and Kyrie are really the stars, just bringing it up for the discussion to show what the 'star player out angle' actually is)

Sorry, my bad. i totally misread the posts. I actually know the angle and i do agree with you, i dont see it applying to playoffs at all. And by the way as far as the Cavs are concerned, even if Love and JR may not be considered stars, they still play a huge role in the success of the team. With Butler being able to shut down Lebron, Cleveland clearly struggled to create offense, and i dont see that changing in game 2. Let alone the huge defensive mismatch with Gasol..



GL emkee.
 
Thanks man.

It shouldn't apply to the playoffs at all. Last night's win by the Clippers was quite amazing given how bad the situation was for them, not the prettiest but probably the most remarkable win in 15+ years of playoff basketball. Says a lot about the Rockets.

Would also be concerned about the league declaring the Clippers a team of destiny.

Also looks like I got in on time with the Hawks. Wall out, will see if 'amazing happens' twice in a row. Fuck this league.
 
Lean late? I got nothing...

Situation says Grizz, head says Dubs. Grizz cannot match up with this team, Scurry should have a big game. I remember KD dropped 32 in a home win after being named the league MVP last season.

Fuck Korver. Couldn't stand him in Philly, can't stand him now. If the 2nd half spread is anything to go by, we should be sweet.
 
Wednesday...

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets

The play...

Rockets -6.5 (3.3 to win 3)

:shake:
 
Automatic play for me.

Like the Rockets to respond off an absolutely brutal Game 1.

Clips due to crash hard after riding the emotional wave the past few days, it is imminent.

Numbers agree and am comfortable with the refs.

If the Clips (Paul or no Paul) somehow get the green here it will defy all the laws of 'situational' handicapping. Paying to see it.
 
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just curious why star player out angle wouldn't apply in the playoffs?

The 'star player out' theory is a combination of two things,

1. The team whose star player is out rallies and plays with a more focused effort to fill the void.

2. The opponent loses focus and plays with less intensity because they believe the game is won already.

In the playoffs the 2nd part of the equation shouldn't apply because it's the playoffs, every win is important. In the regular season you have the luxury of being able to 'take a few games off'.

95% of the teams currently in the playoffs would have whipped the Clips in that Game 1 spot. The Rockets' nucleus is comprised of idiots albeit physically talented, and the two key guys on the bench (Smith and Brewer) play the game like they are on crack or 'bath salts' but at the end of the day, it's the coaches job to get his team up for the game. I blame Lurch for Game 1's loss.
 
Right. I'm not sure you understand what "the angle" is that they are talking about. The angle that they are talking about is when a star player is out that the team actually performs better (against the expectations) and either wins or covers. So, yesterday's performance by the Cavs would bolster Calimike's assertion that the star player out angle isn't valid in the playoffs. (I'm not sure I believe that, nor that yesterday's game would be an example since Bron and Kyrie are really the stars, just bringing it up for the discussion to show what the 'star player out angle' actually is)

I play it all the time and have success with it but only the first game. If after thatthe star player will be out longer it will effect the preformance of the team and the players that usually don't get as many minutes when he's in the lineup will start to show. They're not bench players for nothing. Now I'm not talking about the 6th and 7th player it's the players that are getting the extra minutes that don't usually get that kind of time on the floor with the starters. That first game it's balls to the wall and you usually get an extra point or two.

People are begining to understand the importance of love and I believe not that Chicago wasn't going to win the series anyway but I believe losing love it will be wait till next year.:cheers3:
 
The 'star player out' theory is a combination of two things,

1. The team whose star player is out rallies and plays with a more focused effort to fill the void.

2. The opponent loses focus and plays with less intensity because they believe the game is won already.

In the playoffs the 2nd part of the equation shouldn't apply because it's the playoffs, every win is important. In the regular season you have the luxury of being able to 'take a few games off'.

95% of the teams currently in the playoffs would have whipped the Clips in that Game 1 spot. The Rockets' nucleus is comprised of idiots albeit physically talented, and the two key guys on the bench (Smith and Brewer) play the game like they are on crack or 'bath salts' but at the end of the day, it's the coaches job to get his team up for the game. I blame Lurch for Game 1's loss.

Excellent write-up emkee.:shake:
 
Failing to launch so far in the playoffs, Lurch and the Rockets killing me.

Friday...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls

The play...

Bulls ML -120 (3 units)

:shake:
 
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I agree. Wish the Bulls had a stronger HC. How the refs look? Series is over with a Bulls loss. The production and rare shooting from Shump was a flash in the pan and JR and him can't match that moving forward.

Hawks get 3 days rest but Bulls only 1 again?
 
Refs a little dicey. Head ref Callahan not helping the home team so far this postseason but was kind towards small home faves during the regular season. Brothers is bi-polar.

LeBron 13-26 SU as an away dog in the playoffs (2-6 SU as an away dog in Game 3 of a 7-game playoff series).

LeBron 4-13 SU as an away dog off a home win in the playoffs.

Bulls 15-4 SU as a home fave off a 10+ away loss under Thibs.

Bulls 7-0 SU last 7 after a loss in which they lost the 1st quarter by 15+.

Rose's struggles on 1 day of rest as opposed to 2 day's all over the interwebs, like it when I see things like that.

This is a much bigger game for Chicago than Cleveland, imo. Like 'em to respond.
 
Refs a little dicey. Head ref Callahan not helping the home team so far this postseason but was kind towards small home faves during the regular season. Brothers is bi-polar.

LeBron 13-26 SU as an away dog in the playoffs (2-6 SU as an away dog in Game 3 of a 7-game playoff series).

LeBron 4-13 SU as an away dog off a home win in the playoffs.

Bulls 15-4 SU as a home fave off a 10+ away loss under Thibs.

Bulls 7-0 SU last 7 after a loss in which they lost the 1st quarter by 15+.

Rose's struggles on 1 day of rest as opposed to 2 day's all over the interwebs, like it when I see things like that.

This is a much bigger game for Chicago than Cleveland, imo. Like 'em to respond.

Further digging and LeBron is 7-3 SU (4-2 SU as an away dog) in Game 3 of a tied series which somewhat negates the above trends. Best team he beat in this spot was the Mavs though, all other teams were just making up the numbers. We shall see.
 
Bulls with the best defensive efficiency in the playoffs so far by a big margin.
 
Saturday...

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

The play...

Warriors -3.5 -125 (3 units)

Bought it down to the original spread.

:shake:
 
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