NBA Playoff Plays (Second Round)...

Dubs atop the majority of my ratings, Spek. The better team tends to always respond in key spots.

Saying Game 2 was an anomaly due to the pregame disruption with the MVP ceremony.
 
emkee said:
Not the best looking refs though. Dubs gonna need to hit their shots.
Click to expand...


Can't argue the play but the thing I dislike is the 3 days off. Memphis plays down low an easier adjustment after 3 days off IMO. Pretty much not use to it that often during the regular season. and now expect to hit from downtown like the splash bros have all year and on now your on the road also. I would love to hear your thoughts.
 
Bad read on the Warriors. Champs respond, this team didn't.

Dubs turning it over and having to work hard for every shot, open looks not falling because of all the energy used to get that open look.

Grizz now 6-0 SU in Game 3 of a tied series.

Win/Loss zig-zag continues for me.
 
Sunday...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls

The play...

Cavaliers ML -123 (3.69 to win 3)

:shake:
 
Thanks Scorcher.

Alternating wins and losses right now. Tried and true playoff formula not working that well, odd postseason for sure.

Hella-square but can't play it any other way. LeBron knows how to respond off a loss in the playoffs.

Like the refs, no problems there.
 
Thanks fellas.

LeBron James is 33-10 SU following a non-Finals loss in the playoffs.
 
Monday (Chalk)...

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

The play...

Warriors ML -200 (4 to win 2)

Dubs win and probably cover but they win regardless. Not gonna mess with the spread.

Refs appear kind. Guy I wanted running this officiating crew is in.

Grizz in a bad spot based on the numbers.

:shake:
 
Underdogs off consecutive underdog straight-up wins in the playoffs struggle to win the next game at around a 10% clip (cover at about 25%).

In this spot against 1-seeds they are 2-15 SU (6-10-1 ATS).
 
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Momentum in the playoffs is fickle. Grizz were a lucky Gasol banked 3 away from possibly blowing Game 3, confident the necessary adjustments will be made by the Dubs.

Spreads getting extra sharp moving forward. My numbers have Golden State at -4.15, so round it down to -4.
 
emkee said:
4-34 su (9-27-2 ats)
Click to expand...

Emkee - If you have it, can you put a line restriction on this trend. If we are talking about dogs that are >7 pts in their 2 wins SU, that would be an indicator that they are facing a team that entered the series as significant favorites. Additionally, if one win was on the road and the next at home (as was the case w/ Memphis), then if the club is 7 pt dogs or greater at home, that would indicate they were a DD dog on the road.

Memphis was a 10 PT dog in their game 2 win and a 4 point dog @ home in their game 3 win. The Warriors HCA is pretty nuts, so if we move that a neutral, my numbers say dubs -5.5.

I ran my database with some restrictions as follows:
-Time Frame: L10 years and restricted to playoff games
-Team in question has covered and won SU as dog

Results of next game:
Team at home: PK - 3.5 pt dog: 4-3 ATS and 4-3 SU (5-2 UNDER)
: 4 -7.5 pt dog: 4-6-1 ATS and 6-5 SU (8-3 UNDER)

As HOME DOGS (Memphis): 1-4-1 ATS, 0-6 SU , (6-0 UNDER)

Good luck man. My database is on your side!!

:shake:
 
Tuesday.

late add...

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Cavaliers -5 -118 (3 units)

:shake:
 
Thanks P2W...

Pivotal game in the series. Bulls fight early, fade late.

They blew Game 4, always hard to recover from that.

Mosgov and Thompson running shit inside.
 
11-10-1 (+6.65)

Wednesday...

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -9.5 (3 units)

Dubs found the correct formula last game. Don't see much changing tonight.

Away dogs of 5 or more off a double-digit home loss in the playoffs are 9-23 ATS (1-31 SU).

Grizz 0-6 ATS (0-6 SU) off a double-digit playoff loss albeit a small sample (current core roster is 0-3 SU and ATS).

:shake:
 
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Lean Bullets in the other game due to the involvement of Mike Callahan.

Hawks a one game on, one game off kinda' team.
 
Refs relatively neutral although Mauer was a noted Stern-henchman back in the pre-Silver days. A Memphis WCF would suck, no one wants to see a grind-out WCF's between them and the Clips. Dubs v LAC is much sexier, would love to see the sale figures for SCurry jerseys. Seen a ton of peeps out East and West rocking that shit. Dubs are the new style NBA team lead by a pair of mixed-race guards, which has it's own appeal to break down barriers. GSW just all round sexy from an NBA business perspective.
 
Loved TT Under on the Warriors and Memphis ATS, till I saw that Allen is out...
Without him, Memphis will really have to get creative to have a shot here.

Good luck mate!
 
Thanks fellas. Was on Bullets, btw, lol

Mauer and Malloy have the home team winning games this postseason at around 50%, Spooner has them winning at a 75% clip.

Allen played 16 mins last game and we all saw what happened. Dude is their defensive catalyst which is big given they are a team built on defense.

Courtney Lee is the only x-factor they have now.

Dubs known to piss about in the 4th though, moose will be lurking for sure should GS get a decent lead.
 
Nice hit....you have been reading the Warriors well all playoffs.

Tony Allen is worth at 1.5 pts on the beating line IMO.
 
Thanks CM, Smh.

Thursday...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls

The play...

Cavaliers +2.5 (2 units)

2.5 just popped with my guy.

With the risk of sounding square, I have to take points with the best 'closer' in the league.

Reward for the Cavs is almost a week of rest before the ECF's start on Wednesday.

Pau's bad wheel only means his soft defense got softer.

LeBron is 14-6 SU in the postseason off a playoff game in which he scored 35+ points.

:shake:
 
LeBron 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) as an away underdog in a game where he can closeout a series.
 
Least confident bet of the playoffs but one that had to be played on principle.

Go Cavs.

Refs homer orientated but with a historical love of LeBron.
 
emkee said:
LeBron 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) as an away underdog in a game where he can closeout a series.
Click to expand...

*Cavaliers are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Cavs are 3-8 against the spread in their past 11 following a win.
*Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
bulls are 4-1 ATS in their past five after a loss.


Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Cleveland

CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHICAGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
 
Two words...

<iframe src="https://vine.co/v/MFWZahKIQAj/embed/simple" width="600" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe><script src="https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script>
 
goldengreek said:
*Cavaliers are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Cavs are 3-8 against the spread in their past 11 following a win.
*Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
bulls are 4-1 ATS in their past five after a loss.


Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Cleveland

CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHICAGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
Click to expand...

Team trends mean little especially regular season ones, line-ups change etc.

Majority of those Cavs underdog losses were without LBJ in the line-up.

How's BetCrime's elimination under trend going ?
 
emkee said:
Two words...










<iframe width="600" height="600" class=" pinged " src="https://vine.co/v/MFWZahKIQAj/embed/simple" frameBorder="0"></iframe><script src="https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script>
Click to expand...



Where was he prior to Game 5 ?

Here was LeBron's stats before Game 5


LEBRON JAMES

GAME FOUR: 10 OF 30 SHOOTING / 33 % ( and somehow will get sucked off for hitting the game winning shot that was gift wrapped by the refs )


GAME THREE: 8 OF 25 SHOOTING / 32 %


FOR THE SERIES:

40 OF 106 / 37 %

2 OF 19 FROM THREE / 10 %
 
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