NBA Playoff Plays (Conference Finals)...
- Thread starter emkee
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emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Got it badly wrong. Expected more of a 'grinder' to start the series with both teams a little tentative early and read the refs poorly. Grizz won't beat many if Z-Bo doesn't show up but...
What is more evident for me after Game 1 is the Pop v Hollins thing. Memphis coach had the luxury of going up against Del ***** and Brooks in the previous two series, Pops schooled him tonight. Period.
Also no idea why the ECF's start on Wednesday. Stern scheduling, ftw...
What is more evident for me after Game 1 is the Pop v Hollins thing. Memphis coach had the luxury of going up against Del ***** and Brooks in the previous two series, Pops schooled him tonight. Period.
Also no idea why the ECF's start on Wednesday. Stern scheduling, ftw...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks Hunt.
Heading to Memphis with a split all but spells doom for the Spurs, imo. Given the fact they have owned the Grizz at the Alamo, I like them to go all out once again to get the win here. Memphis offense has been scuffling the last 5 games but what was more concerning was their complete lack of defense on Sunday, I believe they adjust some but not enough - Spurs offense is the best they've faced this postseason with many playmakers and isn't prone to the stagnant sets of the Clips and OKC minus Russell. All the talk about the Z-Bo no show but the Spurs won Game 1 by 23 points with poor offensive games by both Manu (2-6 FG's) and Duncan (3-9 FG's).
Also tempted to go ML or at least team it up with a side in tomorrow's ECF's. Spurs 21-7 SU all time in Game 2's after taking Game 1 at home of a best-of-7 with a 23-5 series record. They did lose their last Game 2 but that was off an OT game versus a team that was offensively on fire, not the case tonight. Spurs 8-1 SU at home off a 20+ blowout.
Heading to Memphis with a split all but spells doom for the Spurs, imo. Given the fact they have owned the Grizz at the Alamo, I like them to go all out once again to get the win here. Memphis offense has been scuffling the last 5 games but what was more concerning was their complete lack of defense on Sunday, I believe they adjust some but not enough - Spurs offense is the best they've faced this postseason with many playmakers and isn't prone to the stagnant sets of the Clips and OKC minus Russell. All the talk about the Z-Bo no show but the Spurs won Game 1 by 23 points with poor offensive games by both Manu (2-6 FG's) and Duncan (3-9 FG's).
Also tempted to go ML or at least team it up with a side in tomorrow's ECF's. Spurs 21-7 SU all time in Game 2's after taking Game 1 at home of a best-of-7 with a 23-5 series record. They did lose their last Game 2 but that was off an OT game versus a team that was offensively on fire, not the case tonight. Spurs 8-1 SU at home off a 20+ blowout.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Ironically the Jazz then beat the Lakers by 4 in Game 2.
Game stunk last night. Grizz with a 17-4 FT advantage in the 2nd half after getting into the penalty with 6+ minutes to go in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Scott Foster, ftw. Pop also guilty of somewhat obliging by leaving the scrubs in too long. ML hit thankfully. It is what it is, moving on...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Scratch 'focused', damn.
Refs stink both ways.
Could still see the Heat covering the pregame spread, could see them losing SU. Indy 2-4 SU this postseason on the road, all 4 losses by 10+.
Gonna hold and see where I am end 3rd.
Indy 16-7 SU on the road when leading at halftime this season.
Heat 10-2 SU (9-3 ATS) at home when trailing at the half.
Refs stink both ways.
Could still see the Heat covering the pregame spread, could see them losing SU. Indy 2-4 SU this postseason on the road, all 4 losses by 10+.
Gonna hold and see where I am end 3rd.
Indy 16-7 SU on the road when leading at halftime this season.
Heat 10-2 SU (9-3 ATS) at home when trailing at the half.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Really scuffling at the moment. Reads are a bit off.
Thought the Heat would come out with some fire in Game 1 and put a beatdown on Indy (assumed they'd be a little shell shocked per se after making the WCF's for the first time in forever), setting up a Game 2 play on the Pacers. Got it wrong.
No rust excuse this time, Heat played scared imo. The obvious became even more apparent regarding Indy's huge rebound advantage. Game 2 now becomes a little harder to figure out given how/if the young Pacers are affected by blowing Game 1.
Been beaten to death now but there is no way if I'm coaching the Pacers that Hibbert isn't guarding the rim on that last possession, the block he put on Melo last series pretty much sealed the series victory. I'm high on Vogel but he out-thought himself at the worst possible time there.
Refs are also getting really annoying.
Gonna readjust, change the avy and focus on achieving a 10 unit profit come the end of the playoffs...
Thought the Heat would come out with some fire in Game 1 and put a beatdown on Indy (assumed they'd be a little shell shocked per se after making the WCF's for the first time in forever), setting up a Game 2 play on the Pacers. Got it wrong.
No rust excuse this time, Heat played scared imo. The obvious became even more apparent regarding Indy's huge rebound advantage. Game 2 now becomes a little harder to figure out given how/if the young Pacers are affected by blowing Game 1.
Been beaten to death now but there is no way if I'm coaching the Pacers that Hibbert isn't guarding the rim on that last possession, the block he put on Melo last series pretty much sealed the series victory. I'm high on Vogel but he out-thought himself at the worst possible time there.
Refs are also getting really annoying.
Gonna readjust, change the avy and focus on achieving a 10 unit profit come the end of the playoffs...
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smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Emkee,
What's your take on Memphis -5.5 in game 3? I credit Memphis for the run they went on at the end of game 2, but I can't shake all the open looks the Spurs missed that should have iced it. Still, at 4.5 I favored Mem, but now at 5.5, I lean SA. I believe the 1 pt move was based on the Parker news and has created value the other way. With Parker "cleared" do the Spurs bettors hop back in and beat the line down to 4.5? I'm considering a bet on Spurs, with a buyback on Memphis.........thoughts?
What's your take on Memphis -5.5 in game 3? I credit Memphis for the run they went on at the end of game 2, but I can't shake all the open looks the Spurs missed that should have iced it. Still, at 4.5 I favored Mem, but now at 5.5, I lean SA. I believe the 1 pt move was based on the Parker news and has created value the other way. With Parker "cleared" do the Spurs bettors hop back in and beat the line down to 4.5? I'm considering a bet on Spurs, with a buyback on Memphis.........thoughts?
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
No 'real' play on the game tonight, tough one spread-wise given how Game 1 ended. Gun 2 head, Miami minus the number (barely). Do have the Heat ML rolled into an 'international shits and giggles parlay' consisting of 2 NBA games and 2 NRL (Australian Rugby League) games...
- Miami Heat ML, St George Dragons ML (NRL), Canberra Raiders +6.5 (NRL), Memphis Grizzlies ML (1.3 to win 5.24) -
Will have some thoughts on tomorrow's WCF Game 2 a little later on...
- Miami Heat ML, St George Dragons ML (NRL), Canberra Raiders +6.5 (NRL), Memphis Grizzlies ML (1.3 to win 5.24) -
Will have some thoughts on tomorrow's WCF Game 2 a little later on...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
15-18 (-6.02)
Will be sticking to the gameplan and taking Memphis at this stage. Waiting on the line to 'settle', may get a 4.5 but not opposed to taking a 5.5 at plus money which my local is currently offering. There is some slight value at a glance with the Spurs getting 5+ taking the 1st two games into account but more often than not in a playoff series featuring decent teams, the team that looked like utter crap opening up on the road clicks at home and rolls. And the 'value' diminishes again when you look at the Grizzlies record at home as a small favorite (26-9 ATS as a HF of 5.5 or less). Refs were for the most part the reason why the Grizz showed life in the 2nd half of Game 2 (thanks Scott Foster, asshole) but in doing so they also allowed Memphis to gather a little form, especially Z-Bo. Layoff helps the Spurs given their age etc but is a blessing in disguise for a struggling Grizzlies team, really think it helps give them that offensive prep time that they desperately needed and playing in the electric atmosphere of the 'Grindhouse' may push them through in that category, can't envision them playing that poor both offensively and defensively at home. Regarding the refs, also think it's unlikely Joey C officiates with a Spurs bias in two consecutive playoff games given the history between he and the franchise. Grizz 6-0 ATS after a pair of road losses this season...
Will be sticking to the gameplan and taking Memphis at this stage. Waiting on the line to 'settle', may get a 4.5 but not opposed to taking a 5.5 at plus money which my local is currently offering. There is some slight value at a glance with the Spurs getting 5+ taking the 1st two games into account but more often than not in a playoff series featuring decent teams, the team that looked like utter crap opening up on the road clicks at home and rolls. And the 'value' diminishes again when you look at the Grizzlies record at home as a small favorite (26-9 ATS as a HF of 5.5 or less). Refs were for the most part the reason why the Grizz showed life in the 2nd half of Game 2 (thanks Scott Foster, asshole) but in doing so they also allowed Memphis to gather a little form, especially Z-Bo. Layoff helps the Spurs given their age etc but is a blessing in disguise for a struggling Grizzlies team, really think it helps give them that offensive prep time that they desperately needed and playing in the electric atmosphere of the 'Grindhouse' may push them through in that category, can't envision them playing that poor both offensively and defensively at home. Regarding the refs, also think it's unlikely Joey C officiates with a Spurs bias in two consecutive playoff games given the history between he and the franchise. Grizz 6-0 ATS after a pair of road losses this season...
deuce's wild
Pretty much a regular
em - curious to hear your thoughts on tonights game if you have the chance. Seems like everybody is back on the heat bandwagon, do you see this series ending in 5 games which I would assume happens if Ind loses tonight? I would think pacers will make adjustments on defense tonight but will it matter.
GL on your continued run.
GL on your continued run.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks BAR, Deuce.
At work so some brief thoughts.
Game 3 was the best overall performance by the Heat in the playoffs so far, their floor spacing was executed to near perfection and the Pacers had no answer defensively. When the Heat click (meaning the entire roster contributing) they are almost impossible to beat and they clicked last game, saw this last postseason in the Indy series and the finals versus OKC. Pacers' offense was fine in Game 3, apart from Paul George who for some reason can't handle the defense of a gimpy Wade, kudos has to go to Dwayne who has done a good job there. Indiana's weak bench also became apparent. There will be adjustments made by Indiana but I just don't think it will be enough. It's in the Heat's best interests to close this series out in 5 now and I think we'll see a similar structured game by Miami tonight, chances are the scoreline maybe a little closer hence the ML play (my numbers have it at 2.5, same as Game 3). Heat more prolific on the road this postseason than at home. Pacers still a year or two away from being a complete force.
Always scary siding with the masses but the Heat are the better team and it's time for the cream to rise. Also think seeing the Spurs take care of business last night motivates Miami some...
At work so some brief thoughts.
Game 3 was the best overall performance by the Heat in the playoffs so far, their floor spacing was executed to near perfection and the Pacers had no answer defensively. When the Heat click (meaning the entire roster contributing) they are almost impossible to beat and they clicked last game, saw this last postseason in the Indy series and the finals versus OKC. Pacers' offense was fine in Game 3, apart from Paul George who for some reason can't handle the defense of a gimpy Wade, kudos has to go to Dwayne who has done a good job there. Indiana's weak bench also became apparent. There will be adjustments made by Indiana but I just don't think it will be enough. It's in the Heat's best interests to close this series out in 5 now and I think we'll see a similar structured game by Miami tonight, chances are the scoreline maybe a little closer hence the ML play (my numbers have it at 2.5, same as Game 3). Heat more prolific on the road this postseason than at home. Pacers still a year or two away from being a complete force.
Always scary siding with the masses but the Heat are the better team and it's time for the cream to rise. Also think seeing the Spurs take care of business last night motivates Miami some...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Indy made adjustments but Spo went away from the gameplan. Didn't utilize a heating up Haslem at all, dude was key at spreading the floor last game yet Spo played him less minutes even though he was 3-5 FG's. Stephenson was the big x-factor.
Hungrier team won, agendas were played out and I got it wrong once again. In the past I would have played the Pacers purely on the Stern-factor.
Will get it right next game...
Hungrier team won, agendas were played out and I got it wrong once again. In the past I would have played the Pacers purely on the Stern-factor.
Will get it right next game...
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
late add...
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
The play...
Heat -7.5 (3 units)
Gonna go out like a square. Rolled ankles and all. Heat lost in this exact spot last postseason, think they come out blazing. Tough team to read though, too arrogant but I'd bet this spot 9 times outta 10. Pacers not immune to stinking it up on the road and barely beat the Heat last time out when Miami played an absolute stinker in Game 4. Have been wrong plenty of times in these playoffs, just have to stick to what's given me success in the past (age has made me stubborn, yo)...
:shake:
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
The play...
Heat -7.5 (3 units)
Gonna go out like a square. Rolled ankles and all. Heat lost in this exact spot last postseason, think they come out blazing. Tough team to read though, too arrogant but I'd bet this spot 9 times outta 10. Pacers not immune to stinking it up on the road and barely beat the Heat last time out when Miami played an absolute stinker in Game 4. Have been wrong plenty of times in these playoffs, just have to stick to what's given me success in the past (age has made me stubborn, yo)...
:shake:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Is in the Heat's best interests to go for the jugular here. Indy looked great in Game 4 and the 1st half of Game 5 before the Heat finally showed up in the 2nd and played similarly to the formula that won them Game 3. No reason to give this young upcoming team any life as there are no guarantees in a Game 7, maybe not in this case but why risk it. Not a body language expert by any means but the Pacers looked a little down n' out towards the end of Game 5. Heat have to act the bully and kick sand in their face. If the Heat come into Game 6 with the mindset to win it and don't piss around, they'll win handily imo. My numbers have the line at -3.5 given the situation etc so will play the relatively cheap ML (sure to rise) as I normally would in this spot.
Heat have a 7-2 SU overall 'closeout game' record in the 'LBJ era' and when leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Heat have a 5-2 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a 4-3 Game 6 record (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Pacers have a 0-9 series record and a 2-7 Game 6 record (with an active seven-Game 6 losing streak).
Heat have a 7-2 SU overall 'closeout game' record in the 'LBJ era' and when leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Heat have a 5-2 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a 4-3 Game 6 record (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Pacers have a 0-9 series record and a 2-7 Game 6 record (with an active seven-Game 6 losing streak).
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
To specify, when the Heat play with a collective defensive intensity - they are extremely tough to beat. Their defense is the backbone of their offense, and you know if they're there to play when they swarm the dude holding the rock and get dirty on the floor, that in-turn fuels their offense. LBJ's second half performance from last night aside, they won Game 3 and the 2nd half of Game 5 for the most part because of this, imo and I'm expecting to see that again on Saturday night...
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
GL em. I'm on the game over 181. Contrary to popular belief of a grind, I think it might turn into a shootout. Hoping the Heat come out on top.
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