MLB ~ Week 16

[mrpickem]

Sunday 4-6 -2.505u
Week +3.092u
YTD -25.528u

Small profit on the week is better than loss. Tough late loss with Dodgers, but moving on...

• 905 Milwaukee Brewers -141
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers -229 Kersh for as bad as he's been is still elite, < 2 rpg L10 starts & hasn't lost to Pads in over 5 years (12-0)
• 909 Chicago Cubs -107 https://goo.gl/z8rqcA
• 913 Texas Rangers +186 team that plays up to comp and sox worse vs lefty
• 916 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +115 https://goo.gl/vgzgGq
• 920 Houston Astros -232 https://goo.gl/DRNhBR
• 919 Oakland Athletics/Houston Astros Under 8 +100 https://goo.gl/2dwYRJ
• 921 Cincinnati Reds +160 https://goo.gl/9rRsxq
• 925 Philadelphia Phillies -106 (Gm 1) https://goo.gl/JPGE2f

Here's 2 diff angles for TEX

View attachment 33225 View attachment 33226

 

[mrpickem]

Didn't have balls to play O's but there is this...

NYY away in division first game of series with 2 or more game win streak only 11-31 26.2% ML winner..fade NYY for 38% ROI !!!
That's over last 5+ years https://goo.gl/txm1Dw

You would think if you went back further, it would look much better for Yanks and it does, but only a little
Alltime(history of SDQL database, >=2004) Still 20% ROI to fade NY in this spot

team = Yankees and DIV and A and streak >= 2 and FSG = FSG
SU: 60-86 (-0.38, 41.1%) avg line: -117.1 / 105.6 on / against: -$3,977 / +$3,324 ROI: -21.4% / +19.8%
RL: 51-55 (-0.41, 48.1%) avg line: -129.8 / 115.7 on / against: -$1,976 / +$1,305 ROI: -13.4% / +10.8%

 

[mrpickem]

Cubs, Rays, Yanks(2), Phils and NYY(2)/NYM(1) unders all very popular plays so far

View attachment 33233

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Good luck today

 

[mrpickem]

I'm considering KC even though they are 4-21 last 25 games. Duffy beat Twins 2-1 on May29 and MIN not that good vs lefties in general

plus AL teams that have won 4 or less of their last 25 and are on the road return 26.4% ROI https://goo.gl/FvCQdE

View attachment 33239

 

[mrpickem]

couple adds

• 912 Baltimore Orioles +160 O's 11-5 in DH game 2 after winning 1st at home
• 917 Kansas City Royals +185 royos 4-21 L25...damn...they have to win eventually and this is decent spot

 

[Warhorse]

orioles to win 2 in a row? tough bet mrpickem

 

[mrpickem]

orioles to win 2 in a row? tough bet mrpickem

true, but who the fuk is cessa to be laying 170 on the road. even if I lose, I still feel the value is with o's/ ta have to dumpster dive on occasion

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck late bud.

 

[mrpickem]

Monday 3-8

Had a couple bad beats with KC and Cubs plus Rays led by 5 and 2 into 8th only to win by 1 and not cover stick. On a positive the totals under 9 went under 6 of 8 and I had a 3-way ML parlay winner that got me close to even for night.

TUESDAY:

• 955 Milwaukee Brewers -135 best $ pitcher besides Severino
• 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Miami Marlins Under 8 -110
• 958 Colorado Rockies -105 discount price at home
• 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Under 8 +107
• 961 Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ +110
• 963 New York Yankees -1½ -131 Tanaka 10-2 ML and RL on year
• 971 Oakland Athletics +207 JV has regressed a little and line ridiculous
• 971 Oakland Athletics/Houston Astros Under 7½ -105
• 973 Seattle Mariners +139 m's 61% on road while halos 50% @home
• 973 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels Under 8½ -110
• 975 Cincinnati Reds/Cleveland Indians Under 8½ +100

View attachment 33253

 

[mrpickem]

View attachment 33256

Really not hard to see how JV can get a little distracted and lose focus... :haveanidea:

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 965 Texas Rangers/Boston Red Sox Under 10½ +100
• 968 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +120
• 967 Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays Under 8 -120
• 968 Tampa Bay Rays -172

 

[mrpickem]

last add

• 963 New York Yankees -230

 

[JROCK1966]

BOL Mr. P!!

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

Tuesday 7-9
Another 2.5 units down the drain. Oak had chance and defense cost them in the end. Love what I see out of Rays but today Zimm has great road record in day games so I will abstain. deGrom only 13-19 L376 as avg 135 favorite to slot as bottom 5 losingest money starter. Stros only 6-9 at home this year vs teams over 55% winning.

WEDNESDAY:

• 907 Philadelphia Phillies +152 https://goo.gl/p8CeSb
• 910 Colorado Rockies -127 snakes 3-10 on wed, miller crash and burn all 3 starts since back
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +105 https://goo.gl/YS8dsg
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -147 https://goo.gl/j9mJwb
• 918 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -125 https://goo.gl/ygyEgy / https://goo.gl/cFNukP
• 924 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +175 https://goo.gl/UGx86b
• 929 St. Louis Cardinals -136 https://goo.gl/fEVgkm

https://streamable.com/wflmu

 

[mrpickem]

2 totals I forgot

• 907 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Under 7 -120
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -135

View attachment 33299​

 

[mrpickem]

Wednesday 5-4

THURSDAY:

• 955 Washington Nationals -210 max + https://goo.gl/A4f64X
• 957 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -115 https://goo.gl/ScQVTC
• 961 Toronto Blue Jays +158 https://goo.gl/9rRsxq despite jays 2-8 on thur
• 963 New York Yankees -111 https://goo.gl/uuvZ94 Severino best $ starter bar none, kluber barely above 0 on ROI
• 955 Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 7 -122
• 965 Tampa Bay Rays -106 snell road record not that great, just feelin it and such low price
• 965 Tampa Bay Rays/Minnesota Twins Under 8 -110 https://goo.gl/AoShsx
• 969 Philadelphia Phillies -107 https://goo.gl/fEVgkm
• 969 Philadelphia Phillies/Baltimore Orioles Under 9 -105 https://goo.gl/AoShsx

Randoms...​

Records since Jun 1​

home: nym 5-15, bal 4-15, pit 7-11...bos 11-4​

road: az 13-5, lad 12-6, nyy 14-9...was 4-13, tb 5-13​

​

Astros 7-10 @home vs teams with > 53% win this year..46%ROI fading them​

​

 

[mrpickem]

adding a few more...

• 952 Colorado Rockies +100 much better pitcher at home, line dont make sense
• 957 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -104
• 963 New York Yankees/Cleveland Indians Under 7 +105
• 967 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels Under 7½ -105

betting all totals less than 8 under has gave 14% ROI since April 1 and every month has been profitable!

View attachment 33368

 

[The Five Pack]

why not Mets/Nationals as they are under 8 too?

 

[bee172]

why not Mets/Nationals as they are under 8 too?

He did play the under here

 

[The Five Pack]

Ah I missed it in the first post

 

[mrpickem]

Thursday 6-6-1
Around 8pm things looked real good, but then the wheels came off. Still all that entertainment and only loss .6u :beerchugger:

FRIDAY:

• 903 Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 7½ +100
• 905 Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins Under 8 -110
• 910 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +140 https://goo.gl/Kow9Ci
• 910 St. Louis Cardinals -154
• 909 Cincinnati Reds/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +105
• 911 Chicago Cubs/San Diego Padres Under 8 +108 https://goo.gl/9xLEzt
• 915 New York Yankees -118 https://goo.gl/hU1dZY
• 915 New York Yankees/Cleveland Indians Under 9½ -112 https://goo.gl/9xLEzt
• 929 Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -105

Favs typically bite me on Fridays so I'm happy I got no big chalk and mostly totals(unders).
Still considering MIA, OAK, SEA, SEA UN, and zona.
Seeing several angles pointing to Nats, but roarke has been so damn bad..maybe he's due. I may even consider them too

Randoms:
record since 6/1
home: bal 4-16, nym 5-17, sl 7-11...bos 12-4
road: lad 13-6, az 13-6, oak 15-7...kc 4-14, tb 5-14, was 5-13

starters today in 2018
top$$- fiers 11-6, porcello 13-6, e jack 3-0
worse- roark 5-13, cobb 3-13, hamels 6-12

 

[mrpickem]

late adds

• 906 Miami Marlins +107
• 907 Arizona Diamondbacks +130
• 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ -115

 

[BenchCoach]

dont completely disagree with Marlins play

 

[mrpickem]

dont completely disagree with Marlins play

Yeah, almost took it this morning when +130 but you snooze you lose...joiiiice

 

[mrpickem]

Friday 3-9 :hang:

Well, it's just as easy to pick losers on totals as sides...at least on Friday for me.

Saturday:

• 955 Cincinnati Reds +132
• 965 Tampa Bay Rays +126
• 967 Kansas City Royals +108
• 971 Texas Rangers -103
• 973 New York Yankees -103
• 975 Los Angeles Angels +130
• 979 Oakland Athletics +103
• 957 Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -110

 

[mrpickem]

couple more...

• 963 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 10 +105
• 965 Tampa Bay Rays/Minnesota Twins Under 8 +105
• 964 Boston Red Sox -1½ -120

 

[mrpickem]

last one

• 969 Detroit Tigers/Houston Astros Under 7 +100

 

[JROCK1966]

last one

• 969 Detroit Tigers/Houston Astros Under 7 +100

Ugh...why gotta fade me Mr. P? LOL j/k

 

[mrpickem]

Ugh...why gotta fade me Mr. P? LOL j/k

I been losing a lot lately, but been playing all totals under 8 to the under and it's been very good for me...helping offset some otherwise bad capping

 

[JROCK1966]

I been losing a lot lately, but been playing all totals under 8 to the under and it's been very good for me...helping offset some otherwise bad capping

Fading me is not a bad way to stop your losing!!

 

[mrpickem]

Saturday 8-4

Sunday:

• 901 Washington Nationals -135
• 907 Milwaukee Brewers -101
• 921 Detroit Tigers/Houston Astros Under 7½ -115
• 927 Oakland Athletics +113

:toilet2:

 

[mrpickem]

couple more

• 925 Seattle Mariners/Colorado Rockies Over 11 -110
• 907 Milwaukee Brewers +100 vs Pittsburgh Pirates for 1st 5 Innings

Pretty slow day for a Sunday

So long Mike

View attachment 33448

 

[mrpickem]

gotta love clev's kix...within mlb rules lol

View attachment 33449

 

[mrpickem]

• 907 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7½ -110
• 927 Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -120

 

[tuck321]

Really sick to lose Brewers first half when Pitt got 1 hit first half