Games Im betting opening day - Thurs 8/31....

[vanzack]

Man - I hate to open with 2 road favs but against my better judgement I cant lay off of these.

1. Northwestern -3 -108 (it is up to 3.5 and I am posting now because it will only go up) vs Mia O. I see a clear major difference in this game; NW offensive line returns 4 starters and they have an awesome RB in Sutton while Mia O returns 2 starters on an already poor defense. This is it - the running game of NW will dictate tempo and will not be stopped. I dont love betting teams in NCAA with new QB's and new coaches, but the running advantage for NW should alleviate the need to ever pass the ball.

I see this as one of those games that the offensive line of NW has the Dline of MiaO 3 yards backed up before the RB even gets there. MiaO will score, but not enough, not nearly enough.

2. S Carolina -6 -102 vs Miss St. Im a little concerned about the inexperience on Oline for SC against a decent Miss St Defense - but I just see a constant pressure that will eventually yield enough points for SC to pull away. Im not sold at all that Miss St will be able to do anything on offense here - so I see a 24-6 type of game. No turnovers for SC and I see a comfortable win.

There are lots of great threads on these 2 games already in the college forum.

GL all - this is only week 1 - dont blow your wad.

:smiley_abvm:

 

[RJ Esq]

With you already on NW. Great emotional play in my opinion.

Also think that S Car is a good play, but more risky. Still on my board of potential plays and will probably play it at -6 or -5.5.

:money2:

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Thanks vanzack...

I'm def on NW too....still lookin at the other...


:wacka wacka:

 

[G-Man]

I see you did a cut and paste.
Good move.

GL on these two.

Hope they hit for you.

NW is bringing back the worst defense in the big 10 but you are focusing on the right thing here IMO. Mia, O wont be able to stop the NW "O" and the NW "D" will be much better against these Redhawks. The FIRST DOWNS in this game by NW will probably double those by Mia here. That means control of the ball and clock.= WIN

I'm for you with S.Caro but wouldnt bet it myself. With only four (4) returning starters on S.Caro defense makes me question a team on the road early in the season. But your point of Miss St. may be true about scoring. The Miss St. defense is a good one though. I think they were the only team to score 10 pts per game less on offense, than they gave up on defense - when holding the opposition to less than <24 per game.
These boys aint slouches on "D". With 9 returning defensive starters here and ranked 44th in the nation LY, they are dangerous at home as a dog.Be careful.

I just would rather see the "D" play first for S.C. before I spend money on them.

Regardless. GL on S.C.

 

[SoonerBS]

I think the NW bet is a good bet and I may eventually be on it myself.

The S. Carolina bet concerned me. I have read a bunch of reports on them this Summer and Steve Spurrier has not been happy with the way the offense has been shaping up. It's mostly technical stuff and head mistakes and all those could get ironed out before the opener, but the offense is suppose to be the "gimme" here on this team and the defense was suppose to be the concern.

I also think that Mississippi State might be a bit better than some are giving them credit for. They at least bring back several experienced players on both sides of the ball and Croom is not a bad coach for what he has been given. The third year of a program is suppose to be the year you show some improvement.

But, I know you've capped this game well and have probably found more positives for the play than I have. Good luck, dude!

 

[Matt]

Glad to see you posting your picks Vanzack.

Best of luck this season.

 

[vanzack]

Thanks for the comments.

I agree with all of them. The concerns on the SC game are valid. I do think Miss St has a talented defense and I am concerned about SC defense. Week 1 is tough no matter what angle you take because you sometimes just have no idea what you are going to get - but I just see a class mismatch here that I equate to a comfortable SC win.

I do think NW is more of a "no brainer" for me - but I do flat bet so i will have equal amounts on these 2.

GL all

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

with you on NW

jumped on it a -3.5
whenever i get around to actually completing my write ups for week 1, i'll get into more detail...but the forum already has great stuff on this game.

i do think it's important though to jump on this before it gets to 4...though 3 is world's better. Betts replacement is an unknown variable...and they do return 1000-plus yard gainers at RB and WR.

NW's defense could allow Miami-Oh to keep it close. just saying the line will rise, and it's best to get on it now.

 

[HUNT]

good write-ups Van. I think SC offense will be too much for Missy State in the end....it might be close in the first half, then Spurrier will make the necessary adjustments to win and get the cover. GL.

 

[horses]

Hey Vanzack, I like your Northwestern play priamrily for the reason you listed...big mismatch up front. Also like the emotional angle at play here.

I draw the line at South Carolina though; while I think NW and Miami may be close on defense, I think Miss St has a better defense than South Carolina. Catching points at home with a better defense is not a situation I will very often challenge.

GL.

 

[SHSUHorn]

Was on NW from the start. Jumped on SC when it moved from 7 to 5.5. Miss. St. has no offense and the loss of Norwood will hurt early on.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Riverboat Gambler

money;

Don't think I will touch either. Intial lean towards both but not confident enough in gthem right now. But, we still got a week to go. Look forward to Saturday thoughts.

 

[bull]

I can now see I don't have to go elsewhere to catch vanzack's plays.

I do not very often go the opposite way. Horses, you too.:cheers:

 

[NickFazekas]

Do you guys wonder how not one person anywhere is on Miss St. yet the line went and has stayed down? That game has trap written all over it. Good luck though.

 

[bull]

Nick - exactly

 

[CollegeKingRex]

I'll probably be on MSU, for the same reason horses said above... Lot of points to give to a home team in an August conference game...

 

[TroyStacks]

there are no traps numb nuts i've been saying this for years and people still insist on it. if you don;t want to hear itr from me go read ckr post.

 

[NickFazekas]

traps are everywhere in college, were you guys asleep during the NCAA tournament last year?

 

[pags11]

MSU is just so bad though, Rex...and I'm not sure Croom is the right guy there either...you know I love a good dog and all, but I can't find many reasons to take MSU here...

 

[vanzack]

The only trap at MSU is the trap door under the horrendous offense.

2-0 to start the season. Ill take it.

money;

 

[Wolfpack17]

Nice sweep van!