Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Lynn has gotten banged around by Stros the last 2-3x they have faced him but that lineup Stros trotted out yesterday looks significantly worse to me. They still got several big time bats but it looks like a lineup that a lot easier to navigate as it not nearly as deep. Lot of outs in the bottom half the lineup. I’d expect a savvy vet like lynn to be able to work around some the boppers if he has too, or at least not give in to those guys and force them to swing at his pitches. Javier a bad mofo tho.

I’d expect another low scoring game, little unsure of the later innings once the starters gone? Both teams had their best relievers throw a inning, will they pitch them b2b days right out the gates? Maybe if they only threw 10-15 pitches, any more I assume it little early to lean on same guys daily. That only thing that keeps this from being a cws+1.5/u7.5 parlay. Ff u4 I think has the most appeal to me, that looks solid: if Lynn is better against this Stros lineup as I suspect and Javier is his dominant self and he been almost unhittable to start the last 2 seasons, he very well could go 5 scoreless. I don’t think Lynn will give up more than 2 thru 5 so I’m liking that, could argue Stros -.5 Ff a solid play also.
 
I wanna like rox, just seems like they beat pads as big dogs way more than they should! The issue is last 2 years pads as a team have damn near a 1.000 ops vs Freeland! That ain’t good, lol. I thought Freeland showed well against Japan in the wbc but that was a jap lineup full of lefties.

Nick Martinez didn’t fair all that much better vs Rox last year as they had a team ops above .850 in 16 innings across 6 appearances. His era wasn’t bad but that bound to get worse if a team crushing a .850 ops!! Maybe over here? 8 is certainly not that tough to reach, rox hit pretty much all the relievers pads brought in yesterday.
 
2daBank said:
I wanna like rox, just seems like they beat pads as big dogs way more than they should! The issue is last 2 years pads as a team have damn near a 1.000 ops vs Freeland! That ain’t good, lol. I thought Freeland showed well against Japan in the wbc but that was a jap lineup full of lefties.

Nick Martinez didn’t fair all that much better vs Rox last year as they had a team ops above .850 in 16 innings across 6 appearances. His era wasn’t bad but that bound to get worse if a team crushing a .850 ops!! Maybe over here? 8 is certainly not that tough to reach, rox hit pretty much all the relievers pads brought in yesterday.
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But Martinez owned Rox in SD
 
VirginiaCavs said:
But Martinez owned Rox in SD
Click to expand...

I mean we talking 16 innings last year and mostly out of pen so either way I don’t think it means much good or bad. Guy is 32, not like we talking bout a exciting prospect, last year was 1st time he pitched significant innings in years, his velo was higher than any other time in career (maybe he borrowing a bit of tatis juice? Seems odd the velo ticking up at this age! Lol). He has a solid mix of pitches so not saying he chopped liver, he was actually better on the road than at petco last year. I just think him in the 2 slot is crazy optimistic, of course as good Snell stuff is I think him being your opening day starter a less than flattering sign bout your rotation, obviously missing Yu sucks. Ultimately I think the price on him is excessive, unless of course pads gonna tee off on Freeland in which case im super happy with the over.
 
Ray isn’t always a quick starter but against guardians last year they didn’t get a run off him in 13 innings! How good is Gattis? He certainly not in the 2 hole if McKenzie not hurt, Is he even in rotation? Little more pricey than I like. Addition of wong was a great move for seattle, young team ready to win, bringing in a vet winner like wong who those clowns in milw didn’t appreciate was a great move, why would milw appreciate a winning baseball player? They havnt seen what those look like! Losing Frazier to o’s was tough, great for o’s but this lineup is pretty darn deep. Just don’t want to lay -150s but I’d like to play seattle one way or another.
 
Pretty comfortable with the price on Stros/M's ML parlay, got +167

Only other thing I'm on is over at Petco
 
What’s crazy is these 5 teams playing tonight only had 2 of the 21 steals on opening day! Want to start trying ways to go after steal props and we get all the teams who didn’t run! Lol
 
KJ said:
Pretty comfortable with the price on Stros/M's ML parlay, got +167

Only other thing I'm on is over at Petco
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Man I could see cws taking 3 in this series, for sure 2. Love the m’s side, maybe I’ll try to put them with something else.

Same page w over in petco.
 
2daBank said:
What’s crazy is these 5 teams playing tonight only had 2 of the 21 steals on opening day! Want to start trying ways to go after steal props and we get all the teams who didn’t run! Lol
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Losers in those games had 5,4,7,4,4 hits

Not much opportunity to run, guessing we'll see more walks today as we get into 2nd pitchers and 2nd rate bullpen guys
 
I could just go back to my favorite bets in mlb, the RR!

Cws/hou Ff u4
Rox/pads ov 8
Seattle ml

Groups of 2s, win 2 of the games and prob just break even if Seattle ml one the winners, make a little bit if it the 2 totals. Hit all 3 and good night. I prefer 4 teams but havnt found a 4th yet. Reason being 3 of 4 pays solid, all 4 and now we talking big day!
 
Draft kings has bogarts to get a hit +100. For his career his ops vs lhp a good 70-80 points better than righties. He absolutely smoked lhp last year and came out and got 3 hits in his debut for his new team. That feels like a boost worth playing.
 
Seeing 1 SB from each of
2daBank said:
Draft kings has bogarts to get a hit +100. For his career his ops vs lhp a good 70-80 points better than righties. He absolutely smoked lhp last year and came out and got 3 hits in his debut for his new team. That feels like a boost worth playing.
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max $25 but yeah, -195 down to +100 is significant

Ohtani was -185 down to +100 yesterday, max $50

Not sure why their limits are so arbitrary
 
I like Seattle’s Rodriguez ov .5 steal +320
And wong +650!

Betts +400

Think those be all for me tonight.
 
I might have gotten a tad crazy w hitter props and steals since I’ve never really done these.

Obviously started and took the free 50 on bogarts ov.5 hits even money, that was just crazy to me, low limit but couldn’t pass.

Then I did various 2 teamers w these as sone the juice too high for me to play straight.

Peralta ov .5 hits
Freeman ov 1.5 total bases
Will smith ov 1.5 total basss

Other than the bogarts boast I also played him
Ov 1.5 bases
Machado ov 1.5 bases

Rodriguez ov 1.5 bases
Wong ov .5 hits

Then the steals, holy crap putting these in 2-3 man parlays pay huge so small bets w huge payout potential

Rodriguez steal +320
Wong steal +650!!
Betts steal +400

Then used Marte for Mets, forget his price, not quite as high but used for a 3 teamer where 5 bucks paid almost 800!!

Now to my bread and butter. K props which I foolishly laid off yesterday cause last year messed w my head w starters not throwing as much pitches till 3rd or 4th starts last year, obviously the shortened spring was the driving factor, I still didn’t expect these guys to go out and mostly throw 5-6 innings, thought that be more in 2nd starts, with that out the way.

David Peterson ov 4.5 k’s -170 (again need parlay partner), this a big moment in time for him and most importantly he a lefty with strikeout stuff playing a marlins team who swung and missed agaibst lhp more than any team in the league, long as he has a solid start he getting at least 5k’s imo. Should be 6-7!

Javier ov 5.5 k’s -160 I think it was , again gotta parlay but this kid is a strikeout machine. White Sox did a good job making contact vs Valdez but think javuer a different animal. 194 k’s in 148 innings last year! As mentioned earlier he been microscopic out the gates so expect him to control the cws lineup for 5-6 innings!


Think that everything in a bunch of 2-3 team parlays!

The did the 3 team RR I discussed earlier with

Cws/houston Ff u4
Rox/pad ov 8
Seattle ml


Should be all my bets. Good thing I used the app today cause didn’t have enough cash on me to make all those! Lmao
 
sure didn’t plan on having so much exposure on this little card! I often think smaller cards are better for me when it comes to player props, sides not so much. Just know I did better in some dfs contest with these smaller cards so hopefully hitter props translate!! We see how it goes, I like the card, sadly I often do better on cards im pessimistic tho, lol, not ksure I would tail but I do think this card makes money! Wtf do I know tho? Lol
 
If cws losses tonight think I’ll be all over Giolito 2marro. Think he in Line for a major bounce back spot. His bad games last year were silly, he would look great and all a sudden have a inning he just fell apart, doesn’t seem like something that would continue. I’ll be eating up plus money on any games I can early on until it starts costing me money or more hopeful cause they start adjusting his lines as he proves he got the mojo back! Get while the getting good.
 
peelpub94 said:
Mets, Stros, Padres, Dodgers
Click to expand...

You bet a lot of mlb favs? I just can’t do it. Everyone better at certain things so not knocking it. It always been baffling to me I can hit in the 50-55% range over 1000 of dog plays, I havnt made nearly that many plays on favs cause my win percentage when playing favs is equal at best, often worse! Makes no damn sense but obviously I can do well enough w the dogs and totals I try to live in my wheelhouse! Props different, played lot of juice w those last year w the strikeout props and did well, just use parlays a lot more than actually eating the juice straight. I’m sure something that frowned upon by sharper ppl than me but it has always worked!
 
If cws losses tonight think I’ll be all over Giolito 2marro. Think he in Line for a major bounce back. His bad games last year were silly, he would look great and all a sudden have a inning he just fell apart, doesn’t seem like something that would continue. I’ll be eating up plus money on any Giolito games I can early on until I’m losing money or they start adjusting!
 
2daBank said:
Lynn has gotten banged around by Stros the last 2-3x they have faced him but that lineup Stros trotted out yesterday looks significantly worse to me. They still got several big time bats but it looks like a lineup that a lot easier to navigate as it not nearly as deep. Lot of outs in the bottom half the lineup. I’d expect a savvy vet like lynn to be able to work around some the boppers if he has too, or at least not give in to those guys and force them to swing at his pitches. Javier a bad mofo tho.

I’d expect another low scoring game, little unsure of the later innings once the starters gone? Both teams had their best relievers throw an inning, will they pitch them b2b days right out the gates? Maybe if they only threw 10-15 pitches, any more I assume it little early to lean on same guys daily. That only thing that keeps this from being a cws+1.5/u7.5 parlay. Ff u4 I think has the most appeal to me, that looks solid: if Lynn is better against this Stros lineup as I suspect and Javier is his dominant self and he been almost unhittable to start the last 2 seasons, he very well could go 5 scoreless. I don’t think Lynn will give up more than 2 thru 5 so I’m liking that, could argue Stros -.5 Ff a solid play also.
Click to expand...
That ff under 4 does seem appealing
 
2daBank said:
You bet a lot of mlb favs? I just can’t do it. Everyone better at certain things so not knocking it. It always been baffling to me I can hit in the 50-55% range over 1000 of dog plays, I havnt made nearly that many plays on favs cause my win percentage when playing favs is equal at best, often worse! Makes no damn sense but obviously I can do well enough w the dogs and totals I try to live in my wheelhouse! Props different, played lot of juice w those last year w the strikeout props and did well, just use parlays a lot more than actually eating the juice straight. I’m sure something that frowned upon by sharper ppl than me but it has always worked!
Click to expand...
Not typically, just like those 4 in their current situation
 
Really think their some potential for clevland to fall back a bit and get overtaken by twins and/or cws. I could def be wrong, they got lot of guys that had around 20 steals last year, those could all be 30-40 steals this year that will add some runs. Without McKenzie (Dunno how long he out) their starting pitching looks rather average. Im sure the pen good as always. Didn’t like losing Framil Reyes either, dude a beast. Picking up bell was a good move. I like Naylor, also. Just think cws and twins improved things while not sure tribe really did.
 
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2daBank said:
I might have gotten a tad crazy w hitter props and steals since I’ve never really done these.

Obviously started and took the free 50 on bogarts ov.5 hits even money, that was just crazy to me, low limit but couldn’t pass.

Then I did various 2 teamers w these as sone the juice too high for me to play straight.

Peralta ov .5 hits
Freeman ov 1.5 total bases
Will smith ov 1.5 total basss

Other than the bogarts boast I also played him
Ov 1.5 bases
Machado ov 1.5 bases

Rodriguez ov 1.5 bases
Wong ov .5 hits

Then the steals, holy crap putting these in 2-3 man parlays pay huge so small bets w huge payout potential

Rodriguez steal +320
Wong steal +650!!
Betts steal +400

Then used Marte for Mets, forget his price, not quite as high but used for a 3 teamer where 5 bucks paid almost 800!!

Now to my bread and butter. K props which I foolishly laid off yesterday cause last year messed w my head w starters not throwing as much pitches till 3rd or 4th starts last year, obviously the shortened spring was the driving factor, I still didn’t expect these guys to go out and mostly throw 5-6 innings, thought that be more in 2nd starts, with that out the way.

David Peterson ov 4.5 k’s -170 (again need parlay partner), this a big moment in time for him and most importantly he a lefty with strikeout stuff playing a marlins team who swung and missed agaibst lhp more than any team in the league, long as he has a solid start he getting at least 5k’s imo. Should be 6-7!

Javier ov 5.5 k’s -160 I think it was , again gotta parlay but this kid is a strikeout machine. White Sox did a good job making contact vs Valdez but think javuer a different animal. 194 k’s in 148 innings last year! As mentioned earlier he been microscopic out the gates so expect him to control the cws lineup for 5-6 innings!


Think that everything in a bunch of 2-3 team parlays!

The did the 3 team RR I discussed earlier with

Cws/houston Ff u4
Rox/pad ov 8
Seattle ml


Should be all my bets. Good thing I used the app today cause didn’t have enough cash on me to make all those! Lmao
Click to expand...
 
Luzardo getting a k per inning. Fish did a lot to lose a lot the swing and miss they had vs lefties. Peterson gonna have to be good and start fanning guys this inning.
 
So far he pitching to contact doesn’t help me at all. Fish lineup much more capable of making contact vs lhp. I fucked that one up.
 
reNew Orleans said:
May have to jump on him +money now
Click to expand...
Yeah it's tough, 3-2 against Sinner with all three on hardcourts and didn't drop a set, Sinner's two wins are on clay and grass

Winning a set for Sinner now is an outlier if it happens although they're both still so young
 
Well Peterson has settle in nicely. 4k’s thru 4, still only around 70 pitches, just need one more k to cash.
 
Only did 5 on this one but full card next 2 days I’ll try $20 that pay 3-4k!! Be awesome to hit one of those!!
 
2daBank said:
Damn, really? That sucks, nobody been getting caught. He the start of a $5 3 teamer that pays almost 800!!!
Click to expand...
Yeah actually getting them on base is one thing, then getting the go to steal is so much more difficult, can't be getting thrown out
 
KJ said:
Yeah actually getting them on base is one thing, then getting the go to steal is so much more difficult, can't be getting thrown out
Click to expand...

Almost nobody got thrown out yesterday. I imagine at sone point teams are gonna start trying things to combat it. Between the way guys just took off after 2 throws over and like I was saying the good baserunners are gonna learn to time that pitch clock so the success rate has to go way up. I’d bet at some point we will see pitchers trying the pickoff on the 3rd try, if they stealing at a 90% clip then you might as well go for pickoff and take the balk if you fail. Catchers gonna have to throw behind runners but that won’t matter if they taking off every pitch, I’d think they try more of those before pitcher has thrown over 2x. Maybe pitchouts come back?
 
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