Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 15 Fri 2022

02:20 PM
901New York MetsT. Walker -R-137
902Chicago CubsM. Stroman -R+127
06:40 PM
903Philadelphia PhilliesK. Gibson -R+1½
-160		+150O 7
-105
904Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R-1½
+140		-163U 7
-115
07:05 PM
905Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R-1½
-120		-190O 9½
-105
906Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
+100		+175U 9½
-115
07:05 PM
915Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R+1½
-140		+154O 8½
-115
916New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-1½
+120		-167U 8½
-105
07:07 PM
917Kansas City RoyalsZ. Greinke -R+1½
+150		+287O 8½
+100
918Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R-1½
-170		-325U 8½
-120
07:10 PM
919Detroit TigersD. Hutchison -R+1½
-140		+166O 8½
+100
920Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R-1½
+120		-181U 8½
-120
07:10 PM
921Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R+1½
-205		+100O 8
+100
922Tampa Bay RaysL. Patino -R-1½
+175		-110U 8
-120
08:10 PM
925Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1½
-125		+176O 8
-105
926Houston AstrosJ. Odorizzi -R-1½
+105		-192U 8
-115
08:10 PM
927Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R+1½
-165		+125O 9
-110
928Minnesota TwinsD. Smeltzer -L-1½
+145		-135U 9
-110
08:15 PM
907Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R+1½
-140		+146O 9
+105
908St. Louis CardinalsA. Pallante -R-1½
+120		-158U 9
-125
08:40 PM
909Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Quintana -L+1½
-150		+124O 11
+100
910Colorado RockiesG. Marquez -R-1½
+130		-134U 11
-120
09:38 PM
929Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-1½
-125		-195O 8
-110
930Los Angeles AngelsP. Sandoval -L+1½
+105		+179U 8
-110
09:40 PM
911Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+1½
-140		+161O 7½
+100
912San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R-1½
+120		-175U 7½
-120
10:15 PM
913Milwaukee BrewersB. Woodruff -R-1½
+150		-118O 7
-115
914San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L+1½
-170		+108U 7
-105
 
Last edited:
I’ll be looking at every jays pitcher props this series. Gausman fanned 6 over 6 innings but think he coulda went another inning had he not been coming off the liner to the ankle. The 2 kids kc had making their mlb debuts tonight fanned 3x, then 1 each from the catcher with only 2 games under his belt and DH who only been in 16 games. That 5k’s from the replacement guys, I would think manoah will be 5.5 also, I’ll def play over that number,, if they come with 6.5 might look at his out total instead which I assume be 18.5 or a very heavy juiced 17.5.
 
Walker k’s been up in his last 2 starts and now he gets the aggressive swinging scrubbies. I just looked at forecast tho and calling for rain and a strong wind blowing out so nevermind, even if rain stays away not sure I want to be on him with a strong wind blowing out. He has become quite the ground ball getter but I still don’t think he mentally strong so outside factors like crazy strong wind could fluster him. If by sone chance the forecast wrong and it turns out to be no rain and less wind I’ll revisit.
 
Damn, they have finally started pricing Alcontera like the guy I been saying he is for last 3 years!! Just don’t think I can lay -150s with the fish vs Phillies. I’d be thinking bout Phillies except Gibson has not fared well vs fish and been particularly bad at Miami in a start earlier this year and 1 last year he pitched 10.1 innings and gave up 12 runs getting clobbered in both!! Unfortunately Alcantera going on 4 days rest again, he been pretty good on 4 but fish stupid for not getting him on 5 more often as he been untouchable on 5 this season with a sub 1 era and a collective ops allowed only .459!!
 
Tough not to just go ahead and play Braves Ff team total over again: assuming it be 2.5, Corbin a bum and they seeing him for 2nd start in a row, I’ll pay to see him hold Braves under 3 thru 5 innings!!!
 
Rox get another lefty, they chew those up in coors! Marquez ain’t great vs lefties which pirates will throw like 8 of them at him. Gotta think over 11 here.
 
Should be another great pitching matchup in San Fran. Will def be looking at Wood props vs milw lineup who struggles vs Lhp.
 
That bout it far as 1st thoughts go: I’ll get more serious and come up with the plays after I get some sleep!!
 
Pivetta had such a good May and June but has been terrible his 1st 2 starts of July, the last coming against this same Yankees team he will be facing Friday. Yanks on a bit of a slide, a downright slump for them! The pen has had to do some work this past series against reds. Boston having a awful month with only 4 freaking wins, losing 6 of 7 to tampa, losing a series to the scrubbies, but they did split 4 with the yanks last week and they got a day off today while yanks were playing extras again: Really tough to get behind Pivetta when you see in 4 starts vs yanks last 2 years he has allowed 17 runs in 18 innings! Not good. Sox also seeing Montgomery in b2b starts and I like them vs lhp. This feels like a high scoring game.
 
2daBank said:
Tough not to just go ahead and play Braves Ff team total over again: assuming it be 2.5, Corbin a bum and they seeing him for 2nd start in a row, I’ll pay to see him hold Braves under 3 thru 5 innings!!!
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Don’t be fooled by what looked like a bit of life from corbin, those good starts came against pirates and fish who are 2 of the worst lhp hitting lineups in baseball! Braves have 3rd best ops in the league vs lhp. Likewise don’t be fooled by his fairly respectable lifetime numbers vs atl, the good starts all came pre 2020, since then his era against Braves has went up every year, 5.11 in 2020, to 8.44 in ‘21, now freaking 10.38 in 2 starts vs them this year. Like I said, if Braves don’t score 3 off him in 1st 5 innings I’ll tip my cap.
 
Giants using extended pen tonight puts a ton of pressure on Webb to go deep. Woodruff k's will be played, Webb outs in that order. If Brew win tonight and don't use much pen I could see a hook on Woodruff at 80-90 pitches tops.
 
KJ said:
Giants using extended pen tonight puts a ton of pressure on Webb to go deep. Woodruff k's will be played, Webb outs in that order. If Brew win tonight and don't use much pen I could see a hook on Woodruff at 80-90 pitches tops.
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Thought I saw wood for giants 2marro? Shit, that changes things for me. Prob like wood more than Webb vs this lineup.
 
Milw really gonna be kicking themselves if they lose this game. Burnes handed giants their 2 runs in a inexplicable 3rd inning that didn’t look like rest of the game! 2 walks, a wild pitch, and giants score 2 runs off one single! Compare that to all the hits milw has and all the chances they have blown!!
 
Not only do I like the over at coors I think I like pirates Ff at plus money also. I dunno, rox do mash lhp at coors but I think Marquez gonna struggle with pirates lefty heavy lineup. Quintana has decent history at coors, not great but he has shown he can be solid there turning in several 5-6 inning starts allowing 3-4 runs, that generally gives your team a great chance at coors!! Marquez been pretty garbage at home this year and for most part he been better away majority his career.
 
Yu over 18.5 outs at plus money I think worth a play. He has went more than 6 innings in 9 of his 16 starts and his 1st start the year in zona he could have easily went further than 6 but shortened spring and 1st start of year; so in reality he could easily be 10-6 to over 18.5 outs! He has only allowed 1 run vs snakes in 13 innings this year as he had a 7 inning 1 run performance last time they faced. We can usually be pretty confident pads won’t yank him till he thrown 100+ pitches, he even made it 6 innings after dodgers kicked him around the 1st 3 innings a few starts ago!

They trust him to go out there and give them a chance even when he off his game, after that series at coors where none their starters got past the 5th, Snell was just run super early, and no day off this one those spots they need Yu to do his thing and eat a bunch of innings to give pen a night off! He the perfect guy for it as he been fantastic at home this year w a 1.69 era and logging 53.1 innings in 8 starts! That a average of over 6.1 innings per start at home! He has cleared 18.5 outs in 6 of his 8 home games, falling one out short against dodgers and Phillies, 2 lineups that light years better than the snakes!! Plus money on this is actually insane value imo, and I think the fact pads pen could use a day off makes it even stronger as Yu the guy who gives them light work days!! Taking guys to go past 6 innings always a bit risky, a long inning or 2 and ya cooked but with his k’s not being crazy high and low walk rate Yu the perfect guy to try it with and he has a great matchup to get it done.
 
Also I think this important to think bout this weekend. Yu isn’t a all star so no concern he gets pulled early to be able to pitch in that game. I will def be wary of any all star pitchers over the weekend. Not saying it will happen cause different managers play it differently and guys who been there done that more likely to not care if they available to pitch in that game!! Just think it worth thinking about this weekend before playing any all star pitchers props.
 
Chisox as dogs to a lefty always interest me. Everytime I start buying these losers they go on another skid so not super excited to play them but I do think +120 or more a pretty good play. No clue why TRL hasn’t been fired yet? Feel like that could only help but there he is half drunk making awful decisions!

Not really sure Smetzer a good pitcher? I know he has a goofy delivery but he still coming from the left side and no team hits lefties better than the cws. He has never started vs them but they did mash him in a couple relief appearances, it was 2 years ago so dunno what it worth but tells me the awkward delivery didn’t bother them. Not a huge kopech fan either but think he the lessor of 2 evils, I lean his over 14.5 outs also but think I rather just take the plus money on cws and trust if kopech good enough to get thru 5 innings chisox offense should give him a lead.
 
My perception is Red Sox/yanks tend to play high scoring games but I’m not sure that accurate, they are 5-2 to the over in their 7 meeting this season but I see a bunch of unders last season. I def lean to there being a bunch of runs in this one. Montgomery history vs Boston ain’t bad but in 13 starts he only has 3 decisions so he can’t be pitching real deep into those games, Sox hit lhp really well this year and seeing him b2b starts makes me think they get some runs off him and out the game before the 6th. As mentioned earlier Pivetta history vs yanks Is freaking awful giving up damn near 1 run a inning in 4 starts the last 2 years! Feel like both teams scoring at least 5 is pretty likely.
 
Well wasted my time w Sox/yanks, looks like it gonna be Eovaldi starting off IL not Pivetta. Don’t like over now but tough to know what kind of pitch count he be on. He threw 55 pitches in a 3 inning rehab start so my best guess is he prob be limited to 80ish pitches. If I thought he could have normal workload I’d love the ov 5.5 k’s at plus money. Whitlock will be back also, kinda like Sox as dogs but most likely just stay away from it now.
 
2daBank said:
Chisox as dogs to a lefty always interest me. Everytime I start buying these losers they go on another skid so not super excited to play them but I do think +120 or more a pretty good play. No clue why TRL hasn’t been fired yet? Feel like that could only help but there he is half drunk making awful decisions!

Not really sure Smetzer a good pitcher? I know he has a goofy delivery but he still coming from the left side and no team hits lefties better than the cws. He has never started vs them but they did mash him in a couple relief appearances, it was 2 years ago so dunno what it worth but tells me the awkward delivery didn’t bother them. Not a huge kopech fan either but think he the lessor of 2 evils, I lean his over 14.5 outs also but think I rather just take the plus money on cws and trust if kopech good enough to get thru 5 innings chisox offense should give him a lead.
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It odd that Smeltzer been worse vs lefties than righties?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
It odd that Smeltzer been worse vs lefties than righties?
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I dunno if it odd, unusual I guess but there a handful of pitchers from both sides that have a reverse split thing going on. I’m not sure that means he gonna be tough on cws lineup or not? I tend to think not. Certainly don’t wanna read too much into 2-3innings out of pen in ‘20 but I did like seeing that cws has seen him and hit him, of course I didn’t look if it was any the guys on team now, just assumed, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I’ll be looking at every jays pitcher props this series. Gausman fanned 6 over 6 innings but think he coulda went another inning had he not been coming off the liner to the ankle. The 2 kids kc had making their mlb debuts tonight fanned 3x, then 1 each from the catcher with only 2 games under his belt and DH who only been in 16 games. That 5k’s from the replacement guys, I would think manoah will be 5.5 also, I’ll def play over that number,, if they come with 6.5 might look at his out total instead which I assume be 18.5 or a very heavy juiced 17.5.
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Manoah over 5.5 k/greinke no win parlay for me
 
survive&advance said:
Manoah over 5.5 k/greinke no win parlay for me
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I’m looking for something to put with manoah also. Shouldn’t be too hard since they once again did same thing as yesterday and kept bunch of numbers a notch lower than they coulda made them and attached a bunch of juice. Wonder why they doing that all a sudden? We pimping them out so bad they trying a different strategy? Lol.

I actually noticed for 1st time yesterday they now have a thing I can click on to do same game parlays so Maybe I’ll roll with ya on that!! What it pay?
 
Ray has been pitching really well of late and they have clearly taken notice, his k prop is 7.5 today. I wanna say it was only 6.5 when he faced oak 2 starts ago! I don’t know what it was against jays as I didn’t look at lines last weekend, I’d assume it was prob 6.5 there as well. You gotta be crazy to play Ray k’s at a higher number against a rangers lineup that a much tougher matchup against lhp than A’s! Not saying he won’t fan 8, he did have 12 k’s in that oak game after all, just saying from a value standpoint there is none in this number.

Rangers sport a top 10 ops against lhp and strike out less than 25% against them (actually top 5 ops! That surprised me). Unfortunately don’t think there a way to take adv of this since rangers pitching a opener with a awful pen! How stupid is that?? Just bringing this one up cause I know we have played Ray k prop quite a bit and don’t wanna to see anyone get sucked in today and watch him fall short!!
 
@2daBank

Any thoughts on Greene K props vs your Cards? I can get over 5.5 @ -136, over 6.5 @+125...but it'll probably be moving up. 13/17 starts with 6 or more Ks, 7/17 with 7 or more Ks
 
Marsski said:
Just bet Manoah over 5.5 Ks -150. I don't normally play props in this range but special circumstances with Royals...
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Think I'm gong to do the prop for 1 unit and a parlay of 6+ ks/Jays -1.5 +145 for a half. Same game parlays limit options or I'd do first five
 
Marsski said:
@2daBank

Any thoughts on Greene K props vs your Cards? I can get over 5.5 @ -136, over 6.5 @+125...but it'll probably be moving up. 13/17 starts with 6 or more Ks, 7/17 with 7 or more Ks
Click to expand...

I been back and forth on it. For awhile he was a autobet for me when his number was 5.5 but then he hit a bit of a slide, he was much better last time out. Cards really not a high strikeout team but I don’t think that means much w Greene, if he in the strike zone and not hanging meatball sliders he gonna put up k’s vs any lineup, he did get 7 k’s in 5 innings vs cards last month. Will having seen him now help cards be more prepared for him this time? Hard to say, I do think they have a tendency to struggle w pitchers they havnt seen but with the stuff greene has I’m not sure it matters?

Really just about whether he throwing quality pitches or not. The fact they set his total outs at 16.5 I think bodes well for him. He pitches into the 6th and he will absolutely fan 6+ imo. If he struggling w command cards will make him throw a lot of pitches and run him before the 5th I don’t think he gets there. Don’t see cards being one these teams he can fan 6 in 3 innings on, he gonna have to be good enough to pitch 5+ innings imo, and for me that is a really tough thing to predict with him.
 
Really long way of saying at the moment I think I have handful of plays I like better, lol. Gun to my head id roll with him to go over 5.5 but I don’t think there a massive edge from what price suggest and what I think his chances of going over. What is -135? Somewhere around 57%? I think I feel good saying I’m at bout 55-60% on him going over so for me the line is bout perfect. I like his matchups with those high k teams where every one his outs on k’s so he doesn’t have to pitch long to cash, lol.
 
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2daBank said:
I been back and forth on it. For awhile he was a autobet for me when his number was 5.5 but then he hit a bit of a slide, he was much better last time out. Cards really not a high strikeout team but I don’t think that means much w Greene, if he in the strike zone and not hanging meatball sliders he gonna put up k’s vs any lineup, he did get 7 k’s in 5 innings vs cards last month. Will having seen him now help cards be more prepared for him this time? Hard to say, I do think they have a tendency to struggle w pitchers they havnt seen but with the stuff greene has I’m not sure it matters?

Really just about whether he throwing quality pitches or not. The fact they set his total outs at 16.5 I think bodes well for him. He pitches into the 6th and he will absolutely fan 6+ imo. If he struggling w command cards will make him throw a lot of pitches and run him before the 5th I don’t think he gets there. Don’t see cards being one these teams he can fan 6 in 3 innings on, he gonna have to be good enough to pitch 5+ innings imo, and for me that is a really tough thing to predict with him.
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Fair enough. I stuck him Over 4.5 Ks in a parlay w Manoah over 5.5. Only 2 starts with less than 5...
 
Marsski said:
Fair enough. I stuck him Over 4.5 Ks in a parlay w Manoah over 5.5. Only 2 starts with less than 5...
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Don’t blame you. He def hits it more than not. Even his bad starts lately he been getting thru 5 innings,, Id think he goes 5 he def gets 5.
 
I miss that 6-7 game stretch where I was just hitting greene over and cashing every start without even really thinking bout!! That was fun!! Lol
 
It like I forgot I have to get up there 1st thing when I took those 4-5 days off after surgery. Fuck me, I didn’t sleep much so wasn’t really up for driving this morning. Market is eating up their mistakes pretty fast, I fucjed up on that. Hopefully after ASB I’ll be mostly recovered and back to getting on these soon as book opens!!
 
You just can’t fuck around on those props, every now and again one gets bet the other way and I take it late but mostly it seems like the secret out how soft they open some of these and they getting hit fast!! No time to be recovering and shit! Lol
 
I can’t get 1st 5 inning stuff to open on DK app at moment. Everything else but innings works, lol. I think I recall seeing Red Sox Ff tt at 1.5, is that right?
 
2daBank said:
I can’t get 1st 5 inning stuff to open on DK app at moment. Everything else but innings works, lol. I think I recall seeing Red Sox Ff tt at 1.5, is that right?
Click to expand...

Over 1.5 -115. I like that quite a bit with Sox seeing Montgomery b2b starts and how well they generally hit lefties. I’d really like to take the plus money on Sox Ff and eovoldi k’s now that it down to 4.5, I’m guessing he prob be around 80 pitches which barring a disaster early inning would get him thru 4 at least. Of course he could be rusty and yanks run his pitch count up quickly. Whitlock supposed to be back also but I dunno if the plan be to piggyback them or not? The Ff team total eliminates having to worry bout the pitchers fresh off IL.
 
Really sucks when there's only one day game and it's raining so much that it gets called already. Buddy went to Wrigley once when the Snakes played on a Friday, did rooftop and it was all you can drink. Game was delayed for 5 hours or so then they played. Definitely got bang for the buck with that one!
 
KJ said:
Really sucks when there's only one day game and it's raining so much that it gets called already. Buddy went to Wrigley once when the Snakes played on a Friday, did rooftop and it was all you can drink. Game was delayed for 5 hours or so then they played. Definitely got bang for the buck with that one!
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I did my first rooftop a couple weeks ago. All you can eat and drink for 3-4 hours, so worth it and fun
 
I really didn’t end up heavy or on many props tonight.,

I did a 4 team RR in 2’s with :

Pirates Ff +125
Cws +120
Yu ov 18.5 outs +105
Woodruff ov 6.5 k’s -175

Even tho woodruff juice took off on me pairing him with all those small plus money plays made it pay pretty good, obviously the 2 teamers with 2 the plus money ones pay nice, love how much small dogs pay when parlayed together!

Then I did straight bets on

Red Sox Ff tt ov 1.5
Pit/rox ov 11
Mil/San Fran Ff u4

Think that seriously all I played. I know I talked bout several more but prices either got away from me or ended up not liking enough to pull trigger, I’m sure I’ll regret those. I thought juice on manoah k’s was too high. I soured on Braves Ff tt over. Decided to just stay away from Eovaldi at the price, had I been able to get him ov 4.5 k’s down in the -120 range I woulda played him but -150ish w uncertainty of coming off IL and I’m assuming a pitch count was too much for me. Anyways for better or worse that my night, 2marro I will be ready to hit those pitcher props soon as casino opens at 8am!! Assuming I get some damn sleep tonight! Still not allowed to sleep on my back, sleeping on side all the time is not real comfy!! I can’t wait to be able to lay down flat on my back for a few hours!! Crazy the things ya don’t notice till ya can’t do them!! lol
 
I’m not sure why I didn’t really look at the city of angels game but feel like I might have missed one with Kershaw k’s. Just looked at laa lineup and sure seems like he outta fan a lot! I might go back by the casino later on! Lol
 
KJ said:
Planned on taking Tajuan k's
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I was actually kinda happy I saw the rain in forecast and didn’t have to worry bout, Walker such a pain, he has fucjed me a lot over his career cause I was super high on him way back when he came up for seattle, every year I thought was gonna be the year he turned into a ace caliber pitcher!! Lol. I been better with him recently but still not super confident in my stat lines I make for him! I leaned over his k’s also, tough not to against scrubbies.
 
Cash the Red Sox Ff team total in 1st inning!! but already kicking myself for passing on Braves as they already cashed also, trust yourself dumbass!!
 
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